How Long Until The M9?

[Listak]

We just got a refresh/tweak of the M8 and I just noticed on B&H some huge Mail in Rebates. I work in IT (Hardware) and, to me, this smacks of a company trying to blow out inventory before a new product comes out.

Anybody have any ideas of how Leica's product cycles work?

 

[dcsang]

Leica is NOT a big company like Canon or Nikon (or even Pentax I think). Leica has a whopping 400+ employees at their Germany, Portugal, and, I believe, New Jersey locations.

Twirling out upgrades/updates to cameras isn't as "easy" for them as it is for the big guns in the digital/slr industry.

My guess, and it is clearly only a guess, is that you won't see a significant change to the M8(.2) until 2010 at least; but that's a guess. And by significant change I mean either a redesign of the insides of the beast or the change in the software/programming to allow for things like higher ISO, more fps etc.

The beat that Leica follows is that of a completely different drummer compared to any other camera company.

Cheers,
Dave

 

[Listak]

That's what I thought but I was curious. If we weren't talking about Leica I would say new product for sure but I wanted to know from an insider. So, by my math, they refresh about every 3 years?

 

[35mmdelux]

Leica is under intense pressure to straighten out/ fix the problems with the M8. The purple haze and the crop factor are quickly being obsoleted by Japanese rigs. In other words, the M9 will be out before very long or Leica will fall further behind with the slackers.

 

[gb hill]

I don't think you will see anything else from Leica for a couple of years. The S2 isn't even on the market yet. Stocks fell another 800 points today. Leica's $1500 rebate speaks more of a company staying afloat than making way for new products.

 

[Fred Burton]

By 2010 the M8 "platform" will be five years old, by current increases it will cost $8,000 and will likely be unsalable because it will be hopelessly obsolete. Do you really think an M9 will follow?

Leica sold some 20,000 M8's (or less) over three years when there was no real digital RF option other than the M8 (except briefly with the Epson). Now those 20,000 used M8's are an option along with the new M8's they are rebating on. So how many M8.2's will they sell over the next couple of years? You think 5,000?

I think the reality is that when the time came when Leica needed to produce an M9 - a substantially improved camera - they instead produced the M8.2. Because they simply could not do otherwise. And now the "special edition" rumors. I'm just not sure what their options are. But, then, Kaufman is the business genius.

 

[Listak]

I guess my thinking is that Leica needs to jump the field. I have an MP which I love but keep on waiting for Leica to really define the digital camera field with a camera that has more mega-pixels, better optics (done) and more features than any of the Japanese brands. Right now that is a tough sell, even for a Leica freak like me. What do you guys think?

I'll buy a digital Leica one day for sure, I'm just waiting for the game changer like the original Leica 35mm.

 

[Ken Shipman]

When the M8.2 was announced Leica made the point that both M8 and M8.2 would be in production together. Obviously there's no reason to keep that up for long. The rebate is for the M8, not the M8.2. I think they're thinning out the back inventory of M8's so they can discontinue it and concentrate on the M8.2. Development priority seems to be the S2, then the R10. I get the sense the M9 is somewhere after that. I got to believe that's 2010 or later. I have no special insight - just my speculation.

 

[Keith]

I really don't see that Leica will be able to come up with an M9 period. The M8 and 8.2 aren't axactly setting the world alight and the die hards who buy the M8.2 aren't the folks perusing the DSLR's at the local camera stores. Why redesign a camera totally to please a market that just may well turn their back on it ... and the fact that no one else is offereing a digital rangefinder in the near future is very teling IMO. I could see a sensor improvement in the future in a year or two ... but no totally new camera.

They dropped the ground breaking M5 like a hot potato when it struggled to gain an acceptable market share don't forget ... they'll do the same with the M digital concept if they have to IMHO!

 

[Krosya]

2010? M9? I wonder if Leica will even be alive in 2010? And if they are - it may be under a wing of a Sony or some other giant. Speaking of Sony - they could crush Leica if they just would make a Digital Hexar RF like camera. We all know it would be better. Too bad noone with the power and money to do it really is interested in RF cameras. Oh well - back to film I am. 😉

 

[infrequent]

@krosya - there is a book on ebay...that costs plenty but seems to be like the bible on hexars. it even has the design of the Hexar RF II they were working. such a shame they got distracted by the merger and the sony buyout. heck they would have done it just for the hell of it. kinda like the limited edition lenses.

http://tr.im/1q20

 

[jaapv]

Leica is under intense pressure to straighten out/ fix the problems with the M8. The purple haze and the crop factor are quickly being obsoleted by Japanese rigs. In other words, the M9 will be out before very long or Leica will fall further behind with the slackers.

Ummm.. What Japanese rigs? The other companies are carefully staying out of the DRF niche - is that because there is no money to be made or is that because there is no way they can come up with a competetive camera? I would be happy if you could provide a transcript of a Canon board room discussio on the subject.

 

[Fred Burton]

Other than on forums like this, there is no demand for digital RF cameras. Or film RF cameras for that matter. Nikon and Canon aren't in it because there is no significant market. As much as we love rangefinders, we are the odd men (and women) out in the camera world. Leica isn't the only player in the niche because they have an insurmountable technical advantage, they are the only player because no other company wants to play.

 

[jaapv]

I guess my thinking is that Leica needs to jump the field. I have an MP which I love but keep on waiting for Leica to really define the digital camera field with a camera that has more mega-pixels, better optics (done) and more features than any of the Japanese brands. Right now that is a tough sell, even for a Leica freak like me. What do you guys think?

I'll buy a digital Leica one day for sure, I'm just waiting for the game changer like the original Leica 35mm.

Those three wishes are not quite realistic.
The megapixel wish, if you analyze it carefully, is marketing hype and more features runs contrary to the whole Leica concept, indeed the RF concept.
What is needed is better low-ISO sensitivity, possibly a solution to the IR filtering, and maybe a Mp increase to about 15 for better croppability. 24x36 is utopia in the forseeable future, I fear.
IR filtering might be doable, but there is no solution in sight afaik.
So that leaves a 15Mp higher ISO camera - and those parameters are contradictory.

So the best thing to hope for is a 1.33 crop M9 @ 15Mp, good ISO 2500 and 5000 max and with an IR solution - in 2012. And that goes for any other brand as well....

Let's get on taking phtographs, shall we? The M8 has been doing that quite satisfactory for the last two years and will carry on doing so for a long,long, time.....

 

[jaapv]

Other than on forums like this, there is no demand for digital RF cameras. Or film RF cameras for that matter. Nikon and Canon aren't in it because there is no significant market. As much as we love rangefinders, we are the odd men (and women) out in the camera world. Leica isn't the only player in the niche because they have an insurmountable technical advantage, they are the only player because no other company wants to play.

Zeiss Ikon wants to but is not able to....

 

[Fred Burton]

Which piece of a 10,000 camera a year market does Zeiss Ikon want?

 

[jaapv]

A similar piece as the M-mount lens market. Or the 3000 camera a year film RF market.Actually ZI has stated repeatedly that they will build a DRF as soon as they see a possibilty for themselves. But they want to build one with a 24x36 sensor, so they can't for the forseeable future.

 

[aniMal]

Let's get on taking phtographs, shall we? The M8 has been doing that quite satisfactory for the last two years and will carry on doing so for a long,long, time.....

Totally agree - my M8 has really been a pleasure to use so far! It really feels like a continuation of the M-mode of working, and I will certainly keep it for a long time.

I will probably upgrade to the new shutter and framelines soon, and then later on get an M8-2 somehow.

I really doubt both that there will be any M9 in the next few years, and I also doubt that Leica will have problems surviving. The base is small of course, but then it is a very loyal and dedicated base...

 

[jaapv]

I would go even further: should anybody be unable to get excellent photographs using the M8, it is highly unlikely that he would fare any better with a hypothetical M9....

 

[yanidel]

I would go even further: should anybody be unable to get excellent photographs using the M8, it is highly unlikely that he would fare any better with a hypothetical M9....

And to go even further, a person that started with the M8 in the M system would lose his point of references with a FF M9. 😉
Why should I long for something I have never experienced ?
Yet, as you said, higher ISO capability is a must and the one thing that would greatly improve some of my pictures quality with the M8.