My own conclusions for the future of the mirrorless cameras no matter if we call them RF or OVF or EVIL.. no matter if it would come from Leica, Fuji or Canikon:
- The only way for the sensors: CMOS
(Better Dynamic range, much higher ISO capability, Liveview, Video..)
- Future most popular sensor size: APS-C
(Very high MP, this year 24MP next year who knows; very high ISO, 6400 became standard, enabling more compact body design than FF, reasonable size for AF lenses compared to huge FF-AF lenses of DSLRs, and the most important: IQ became very close to that of the FF.)
- Autofocus is the way to go.
( Lightning fast focusing compared to manual, use any focal length lens, no need for costly rangefinder calibration.)
- Extra features are no-nonsense:
(Either in-lens or in-body image stabilization enabling hand-held shooting down to 1/2 sec., HD video is not a must for PJs only,
microadjustment capability of lens focus calibration, if possible higher frames/sec. OM-D can go up to 9 fps!.)
I totally agree with those conclusions. I have a NEX-7 and I see the need for FF less and less. I use to wait for Nikon to release a small FF DSLR for less than $1500. They might do it at some point, but it won't be a digital FM2 or the like. The Sony actually feels closer to this experience... Even the OM-D with its smaller sensor is incredibly good. My only complaint for M4/3 is that you have less control over DOF. I can live with 1.5x ratio, 2x is a bit too much for me.
IMHO, APS-C will take the place 35mm use to have. Totally. I mean it'll be the documentary/journalistic/hobbyist tool, just like 35mm film used to be, it's already started. Even if some might prefer 35mm film rendering for XY reason, nobody can say that APS-C latest sensors can't match and even surpass film's quality in the best possible conditions. APS-C used to be far behind on some point, especially dynamic range, but it's no longer the case. And, as BobYIL pointed out, it makes a lot of sense financially.
FF will be the new medium format. Used by pros, advanced amateurs, studios and the like. They might go down in prices, but not in size (body and lenses), nowhere near the size of old film SLRs, limiting applications.
Leica is the odd player in this FF game, for sure. But its prices already makes it a niche product, not accessible to the vast majority of amateurs. Hell, even working pros have a hard time justifying the cost in lots of cases! I do think it will survive with its very faithful clientèle, even if it's an odd one: 80%
nouveaux riches, 10% young guys with dad's money, and about 10% of real users (pros or not). Those are non-scientific statistics from me selling Leica cameras
😛
Medium format digital cameras and back will remain where they are now: pros only, very pricey, the best quality. Totally useless in other conditions and not even heard of by the vast majority of people.
