NYC Journal

There is some protest at 12:30 today against Elon Musk’s influence. Chuck Schumer will be there. This will be at a government building on Park Place in downtown Peekskill.

We will be there, as well as one of neighbor’s who is an activist and environmentalist.

It seems that biking can stress the pelvic floor. Anyways my tight body somehow has a lot of carry over. Definately a young body on an old man who now displays jowls. In the morning when I wake up there is a strong resemblance to Steve Tyler with my grey sides and feral hair.

The weather is a sunny day, no wind, and mild temperatures. Perfect for a protest gathering.

I’m itching to get on a bike and go for a long-long ride. Brewster to Poughkeepsie and back would be epic on the Empire State Trailway. Riding alone going at an easy pace on former railroad grades. How gentle… maybe 80 miles for the out and back. The return would be a somewhat gradual descent.

An 80 mile ride at 15 mph on a road bike is about 5.33 hours. Long slow distance, perfect for an old man. Burn about 2000 calories, and pump a lot of blood. Lower blood pressure and resting heart rate.

Not too big a jump to do solo Centuries. Doing a solo Century would be a great goal once a week. Pretty easy to be ultra-fit with blood pressure 90/50 and resting pulse in the 40’s. Helps to be a skinny bitch with a small body. 5’10” about 150 pounds.

Anyways, I ave goals…

The six weeks required to wait before biking is at the end of February.

Hoping for an early spring.

Cal
 
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Gold remains in the green, but slightly up. I think gold will become a hot commodity because inflation is a serious threat. Right now the dollar is strong. Pretty easy to say that a strong dollar will persist at least for 6 months and perhaps this could extend into 9 months.

Understand that gold is priced in U.S. dollars so if say China who’s currency is weak right now, buying gold would be expensive. So in summery when the dollar looses strength expect gold to surge. 6-9 months of a strong U.S. dollar will build a rather large pent up demand.

Then look at oil prices. They fell to nearly $70.00. Pretty much the world markets are expecting a world wide slowdown. As I have said China’s economy is in a deflationary spiral and looks to be falling into a lost decade mode like the chronic deflation that plagues Japan. Deflation = Overcapacity.

Then there is Germany, another large/major export economy.

The world is looking at limited resources and future austerity. There is mucho overcapacity already, and do I dare say it is a “fool’s errand” to build capacity when overcapacity already exists? Basic economics 101: supply and demand…

We have cheap, mucho cheap, raw materials from Canada, and we have inexpensive labor and manufacturing from Mexico. Pretty much North America could isolate itself from the rest of the world and Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. would all do well. Happy-happy.

Basically live and exist in isolation and enjoy prosperity. This was pointed out to me by a former Master Sargent from the U.S. Army likely about 40 years ago.

His attitude was gift Europe to Russia. Of course I did not agree with that, but it was a point.

Know that I’m saying that Canada and Mexico are strategic to our interests, and likely our most important allies.

Anyways radical ideas… I wish we were better neighbors.

Cal
 
In my book China already is a failed economy killed by self inflicted wounds.

Now enter a bully who see’s weakness to prey upon. Kinda like the end of a street fight where kicking someone already on the ground to hurt them further.

Anyways, this is what I predict how the China Tariffs will play out.

Understand that other than the IPAD I purchased 3 years ago, I basically can live without products from China. Understand I am not a Walmart shopper who stocks up and lives that lifestyle of consumerism of cheap goods from China.

My IPAD is still good, and I won’t kill it like “Maggie” does to her Apple products by overcharging and deep cycling the batteries to kill her electronic devices.

Future Apple products might not get an exemption from U.S. China tariffs. Oh-well.

I do think the Walmart crowd will be engaging “No-Buy” as a meaningful lifestyle. Not a bad thing to not live on credit and paying down debt.

So perhaps the tariffs against China will be real and not a “head fake” like the tariffs against Canada and Mexico.

Did you know that Mexico is the 13th largest economy in the world? I’ll check Canada…

Cal
 
The two custom neck deliveries are delayed from a Friday delivery to an now expected Monday delivery. Oh-well…

The markets are in the green mildly. On one hand you have an expected slowdown due to China Tariffs and retaliation, but already oil prices have recovered to an extent.

If you noticed I track oil and gold heavily. Prior to 2007-2008, I traded these comodities against the sell offs created by hedge funds using leverage in a margin account. Made a lot of money until a day in 2007 when oil hit $135.00 a barrel. Pretty much I hit the sell button closed my trading account and went all cash.

Later that same day that oil hit $135.00 it set a high of $147.XX and then collapsed. This marked the beginning of the Great Recession and the credit crisis that then led to the housing crisis. I sat on a pile of cash when people were selling treasures and heirlooms.

So today oil and gold are being looked upon as hedges against inflation. Knowing these markets is very valuable today.

When the U.S. dollar looses strength, predicted 6-9 months from now, the pent up demand will cause a leap in the price of gold. Either buy physical gold to preserve wealth, or use the tickers GLD or SLV to use ETF’s that buy, hold and store physical gold to trade.

Also if you believe inflation is a problem buy gold and silver miners. I like ones that have mines in politically stable countries to avoid things like “Nationalization” which is basically a confiscation of wealth. Buying into mining involves lots of speculation, and mining is a capitol intensive industry, but higher gold prices escalate profits and margins.

Please know that I am a smart guy, also someone who is a bit of a street thug who is aggressive and embraces risk, but I pick and choose my battles and fight to win. Pretty much I say don’t do what I do.

So here is another tactic that I learned from Jared Dillion. He constructed a portfolio that is 20-20-20-20-20: 20% real estate; 20% stocks (equities); 20% bonds; 20% gold, and lastly 20% cash.

Pretty much a very diversified portfolio that dampens volatility, and prevents big draw-downs in valuation. Bonus here is more or less a steady gain that does not require paying for management. The idea here is stability verses big gains that involve risk. In today’s world risk is a mucho bad thing, better to play safe than sorry.

Also if you believe in regression-to-the-mean like I do, pretty much inflation and risk will have their days in the future. In other words inflation and risk will exist for a prolonged period.

Of course do what is good for you to remain safe. Just wanted to share what feels right to me during these dangerous times.

I’m not alone in suggesting diversification to mitigate high risk. Read the headlines…

Right now I’m listening to George Winston. He is a solo piano player who also is a composer. He has a series of CD’s that are named after each change of season. Slow, melodic, pensive, and beautiful perhaps in a deeply sad way. The CD i most listen to is where he riffs off the songs of the Doors: in a slow, melodic profound manner that is like a daydream like journey. What I find compelling are all the different passages.

I guess I am a bit of a composer myself. I love abstraction, and live in the realm of concept and ideas. Pretty much the ideal medium for me.

So pretty much an example of where I want to go with the guitar. Pretty much slow, melodic, somber and deep. I want to emulate the dynamic range of the piano…

We have a squirrel problem with out bird feeders. Evil squirrels… I think I have a cone like glass roof I can add to inhibit the squirrels from feasting on bird feed.

BTW I got the idea from one of Devil Dan’s posted photo’s. Thanks Dan.

Cal
 
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A good question is if AI can be so productive that population growth and immigration no longer will be a requirement to have a growing and productive economy.

I have my doubts, but what do you think? Can a machine replace humans, or is this just science fiction?

Pretty much the markets are betting that AI is the next advance, but will it work out that way?

A truism is “Garbage in; garbage out.” I only see AI doing a good job in very specialized functions, perhaps in military weapons.

Anyways, any thoughts? Educate me…

Also when you look further into this the electrical grid to support AI on a scale that does not seem practical, as well as the data-centers. Water and energy are finite resources.

Cal
 
You are welcome. I'm processing 8 rolls of Minolta studio stuff right now. Will use some replenished straight HC110 "B' which I hit with HC!!0B Replenisher I've put into small brown glass bottles. Cal I bought some laboratory glass 2000ml beakers. Very cool and I can zap them in the microwave. I bought two $149 6000WS Broncolor Flash Tubes new from China. Don't need anything else. Buckle Up.

I have an Iphone 12 and I don't like hearing friends complain about AI and the phone issues it causes for them. Laying low.

We have Bluebirds again, they come in in the morning in a swarm, they like mealworms.
 
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Went to the protest. The Senator likely is in DC for confirmation hearings. The wind picked up, and after about 20 minutes I had to seek shelter to protect my exposed face. About 80-100 people.

Bladder control in the cold was a challenge. Had to fight the urge to wet my pants.

I’m fatigued now from the exposure to the cold.

Trying to regroup/recoup energy. Might need a nap. I am old…

Cal
 
Gold $2877.10 New Intra-Day high.

The gold price to $3K is not so far off. What wil happen when the U.S. dollar looses strength. Could be a vertical move up in price. Now individuals as well as Central Banks are hoarding. When the dollar breaks, gold will surely escalate.

Very crazy…

Cal
 
Devil Cal,

Here is where I buy our feeders. Cost a bit more but they replace broken parts which is cool and happens every so often. Maybe better to not show Maggie this LOL.


Seed I generally buy with rebate money from Menards, which is essentially no-money. Jays like unsalted peanuts in a tray feeder, we dump the peanuts on top of the seed. Sometimes get the beeg Woodpeckers, they like a feeder with a tailboard. Everything we have I bought from above.
 
No I haven't used hot feed. Our pole is squirrel proof, with the exception of the smaller "red" squirrels, who can leap farther from the ground, into the feeders. Luckily we do have many of those around.
 
What evil lurks where El Salvador will accept all deportees and violent criminals? Pretty much government to government sponsored Human Trafficing.

What is the motivation here? Is this a way of reintroducing slavery back into the Americas or will it be forced labor? The possibility of Human Right violations. Are these “Death Camps?”

Is El Salvatore going to be a penal dumping ground?

Lots of moral dilemma here.

Using Guantanamo Bay to house 30K detainees is another imagined horror. The City of Peekskill is only 25K and encompasses 4 square miles. What kind of conditions do you expect?

Too many unanswered questions here…

Cal
 
Brace yourselves, we are in for major upheavals given Trump's ideas in the Middle East, treating it as his own real estate. Are you kidding me? The U.S. moving into to Gaza to resettle two millions Gazans to other Middle East countries? This has been an issue for over 60 years, and has and will never happen: moving Palestinians out of Gaza and the West Bank. Then there is Musk, a private citizen with major conflict of interest, no vetting, no approval by congress, controlling the government payment system. I would not be surprised if Social Security payments stop under cover of some pathetic excuse in the near future because of his meddling. That money could be used for whatever purposes Musk and Trump decide. It could eliminate contractor accounts that Musk dislikes. Musk is closing out U.S. departments and Agencies, all at his whim. Un you-know-what believable! This what we get with a delusional, ignorant, mentally unstable individual as president and a paralyzed congress of sycophants. There will be outright revolt coming....
 
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A couple nights ago I did a woodcut block print series. My first foray into this printmaking method, but I love it. I created ten 5.5" x 7.5" prints on sheets of newsprint as a proof of concept as well as proofs themselves. I'll be getting some nice mulberry paper and printing off a bunch of a second series of small ones before I move on to a large format of the same image. I'm going to improve my technique, then bring out the big guns on statement. No, I'm not showing images on the Internet. You'll just have to find a telephone pole that I've visited. Someone will photograph it then I'm sure it will find a small social media presence. I'm sticking pure analog for this one though.
Phil
 
Did you know that the Canadian Trans Mountain pipeline has capabilities to transfer heavy crude from Alberta to Vancouver already, and now there is big talk of further development of that capability.

Hmmm… Some Canadian oil could be diverted from the U.S. exports and sold without tariffs. Why not nurture and further expand that capability for economic freedom and to be nasty or spiteful. Canadian oil is useful elsewhere, and the U.S. at this point is an unstable, unreliable country that is not worthy of trust.

So what I’m saying here is this one month delay allows time for the Canadians and Mexicans to be mucho clever in coming up with a Plan “B” and ways to be evil.

Anyways, it might be in my genes being Chinese for a spiteful revenge mentality.

I think Canada’s use of hydro-power to make cheap aluminum is enviable. Selling to the U.S. was convenient, but there are many places in the world that would love to have a source of cheap aluminum. Did the U.S. self-inflict another wound?

A real leader I think would be wise to find other markets. As they say, my money is good elsewhere, so are products like oil and cheap aluminum. Speaking of cheap aluminum, why not divert some of that hydropower that Canadians export to the U.S. to forster more aluminum to export to other countries other than the U.S.?

The Orange House wants to lower trade deficits, and certainly Canada has ways and means to use their resources, industries, and commerce to lower trade levels with the U.S. to eliminate any trade deficit. Pretty much do what the Orange House wants, meaning a lower trade deficit, and gain freedom and preserve and build for a durable future.

Pretty much I would not trust or count on any trade agreements. There is no rule of law. Best do what is best for Canada and throw away the convenience. There is no friendship or reason to be allow to be hosed again. Let the border be a clear boundary.

If I was a Canadian I surely would create a national policy of limiting trade with the U.S. and open up outside markets. Canadian Lumber is good elsewhere. America is no longer a friend or ally.

So in Mexico, the 13th largest economy in the world, how can they create supply disruption as a way of retrobution? Tariffs are one thing, but control of supply lines is another. Shutting down the U.S. automotive industry I think could be an easy target. Mexican tariffs on that supply chain, and extra checks for fentanyl could easily do that.

Boy a month is a lot of time to plan a response to cripple the U.S. A lot can happen. Time to dig in and bring in the weapons. As the Chinese say, “Time is the best weapon” and the Orange House just gave that weapon away. Mucho dumb.

I see now some advantages for Canada and Mexico.

Understand that part of my culture is revenge… I’m wired to respond.

Cal
 
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ellisson said:
Brace yourselves, we are in for major upheavals given Trump's ideas in the Middle East, treating it as his own real estate. Are you kidding me? The U.S. moving into to Gaza to resettle two millions Gazans to other Middle East countries? This has been an issue for over 60 years, and has and will never happen: moving Palestinians out of Gaza and the West Bank. Then there is Musk, a private citizen with major conflict of interest, no vetting, no approval by congress, controlling the government payment system. I would not be surprised if Social Security payments stop under cover of some pathetic excuse in the near future because of his meddling. That money could be used for whatever purposes Musk and Trump decide. It could eliminate contractor accounts that Musk dislikes. Musk is closing out U.S. departments and Agencies, all at his whim. Un you-know-what believable! This what we get with a delusional, ignorant, mentally unstable individual as president and a paralyzed congress of sycophants. There will be outright revolt coming....
Click to expand...
If only! Americans are pretty much apathetic, and only pull their heads out of their butts to watch the latest installment of mind-numbing superhero entertainment from Hollywood.
I'll be attending a 50501 protest tomorrow, not with the expectation that it will accomplish anything. But it will be good to be with like-minded, thinking people.
 
Phil,

Wood cuts are a wonderful expression. I toyed with the idea myself.

In art school my friend Sheldon did wood cuts. He would hang out at a morgue in the Bronx where his friend worked. All these twisted bodies and grotesque disfigured bodies. He would combine parts of a human body with say a lobster.

Anyways mucho expressive. He was an inspiring artist. We would hang out in the studio into the night with 1950’s music blaring, oblivious to the hunger and sleep deprivation energized by out work and creativity.

Good luck in this new medium.

Cal
 
So I will say I’m on my way to becoming a skinny-bitch again.

Lately, and after having a radical prostatectomy, perhaps I’m already coming out as also crazy psycho bitch from hell. I have all these mean, spiteful and nasty ideas. No shortage of them, and I wish True-Dough, and Sheinbaum would engage in this thread. LOL.

I’m just so horrified.

So I’m kinda coming out. Not only am I a white boy trapped in an Asian body, but although I’m a man, a rational thoughtful man, and it seems half of me is a crazy bitch that is kinda psycho.

I guess that’s the emotional half of me that is crazy.

So there I am, part of me a man’s man, but the other half a psycho bitch from hell.

Cal
 
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