Canon: They see a grim future for digital camera market

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Hi,

new market assessment from Canon:
https://photorumors.com/2019/01/27/...kely-to-shrink-by-half-in-the-next-two-years/

That the digital camera market will continue to shrink in the coming years isn't surprising at all (compact cameras get replaced by smartphones and the ILC market is suffering from complete oversaturation and "the last camera syndrom" = cameras are surpassing the capabilities of the photographers for years now).
But nevertheless I am convinced that the Canon outlook is too pessimistic. Shrinking by half in only two years - no, that is too fast. Probably won't happen.

Cheers, Jan
 
Peter Wijninga said:
Based on what knowledge?
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Based on the sales data of the last years, the current trend.
Canon expects that the trend is strongly accelerating. I currently don't see the reasons why it should strongly accelerate in the next two years.
Of course the general trend will continue. But at much stronger speed? I am not convinced.
Well, we will see......I will not get grey hair because of wondering about that ;).

Cheers, Jan
 
Seems like everybody and their dog who want a DSLR/mirrorless with interchangeable lenses already has one that is plenty good enough. So....until those cameras start breaking down sales will be in a slow decline (at best) or...full on, business destroying free fall.

Maybe its time for Canon, Nikon, etc to "discover" film.
 
zuiko85 said:
Maybe its time for Canon, Nikon, etc to "discover" film.
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Here we go again.

The future of Canon and Nikon is surely dry plate, if only they would be more forward thinking and open minded, like the forums are. If only we can get seats on their boards, we could turn their sinking ships around.
 
Surely the film camera industry had its ups and downs and predictions of demise too during its long lifespan. Once you sell something to everyone, it gets harder to sell it to them again and again. Like computers. This happens to anything that becomes a mature industry. They just become another appliance.
 
I own a Leica Monochrom that is perhaps 6 years old now. Had the sensor replaced by Leica and pretty much was overhauled at the same time. Still a great camera Warts and all. I know the buffer is small, the processor is slow, the LCD IQ is lame, no live-view, no video, not so good high ISO..., but it still is a great camera.

My SL is about 4 years old and I still love it.

As far as film cameras go I have too many. Pretty much I don'y need any more cameras. I'm kinda saturated, and it would take a lot to make me buy something new, especially digital.

Happy-happy.

Cal
 
During the holidays, spending time with our daughter and her family, I only used my iPad mini to make photographs. Last summer at a reunion of my wifes mothers side I made a photograph of the entire group, around 103 people, with my iPhone. She has over 50 first cousins! The challenge of Canon and others is that these smartphones and tablet computers make pretty gosh darn good photos.

I still believe that learning the basics is the key to making great photographs. The tools are secondary. Actually tools come in third or maybe even fourth.
 
Larry Cloetta said:
Here we go again.

The future of Canon and Nikon is surely dry plate, if only they would be more forward thinking and open minded, like the forums are. If only we can get seats on their boards, we could turn their sinking ships around.
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Dry plate! Ha! Real Photographers coat their own. Mathew Brady knew a thing or two. Now I have to go look for a horse to pull my photographic equipment wagon.

Full disclosure; I do not shoot wet plate or any 'alternative' process. I just like to hear my head roar on various photo forums.
 
I don't have a crystal ball. My hunch is that Canon probably does have a pretty good grasp on their future business.

From the time I first became a photographer, I've heard that the amateur market is what supports the camera business. That market has almost completely moved to camera phones. There simply is not enough of us photo enthusiasts and professional photographers to support the business.
 
Bill Clark said:
During the holidays, spending time with our daughter and her family, I only used my iPad mini to make photographs. Last summer at a reunion of my wifes mothers side I made a photograph of the entire group, around 103 people, with my iPhone. She has over 50 first cousins! The challenge of Canon and others is that these smartphones and tablet computers make pretty gosh darn good photos.

I still believe that learning the basics is the key to making great photographs. The tools are secondary. Actually tools come in third or maybe even fourth.
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I'm sorry, what site are we on?
;)

Seriously, you should sell your cameras cheap on this site to people who will use them.
 
When I went on holiday to Girona last September I noticed only two cameras the entire week - my M3 and a friend's FED. In a busy touristy city I did not see a single camera - all the photos were being taken by phones or tablets.

I sat by a friend at Christmas lunch who is a professional photographer of some distinction. He showed me a portrait he'd taken on the latest Iphone. His comment - with output like that, who needs a dedicated camera?

I think Canon know their market pretty well.
 
Bill Clark said:
During the holidays, spending time with our daughter and her family, I only used my iPad mini to make photographs. Last summer at a reunion of my wifes mothers side I made a photograph of the entire group, around 103 people, with my iPhone. She has over 50 first cousins! The challenge of Canon and others is that these smartphones and tablet computers make pretty gosh darn good photos.

I still believe that learning the basics is the key to making great photographs. The tools are secondary. Actually tools come in third or maybe even fourth.
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Bill,

My fashion blogger gal has over 607K followers. She upgraded to an Iphone 10 and reports that the new phone's camera is the big reason to upgrade.

Meanwhile she camera-napped my Leica CL. I think eventually I'll get that CL back which I bought to exploit the crop sensor to convert my fast normal lenses into short telephotos.

Funny thing is that I'm not so good at taking pictures with a cellphone.

Cal
 
On another forum someone mentioned that he was discussing with a soon-to-be bride what she wanted for her photos of the event. She showed him cell phone pictures and said that was what she wanted.

The smartphone camera is 18 years old and young people don't know any different.

The camera industry is doomed
 
I have a now ancient 2015 iPhone 6 which as a Snapshooter does fantastic, as long as light levels aren't too low. Newer generations brought in a lot of computational improvements and I am very intrigued by Google's Night Vision software (look it up). That basically stacks multiple exposures in low light conditions and with processing gets you a picture.

I rely on a quite tough basic 12MP m43 camera that I think of upgrading to an EM5 II type-level of camera. Despite the improvements, I actually prefer to spend it on the hobby side of film and slow shooting. Many times the files just sit around...

BTW I saw an ebay backed promo for a Canon 4000D with kit lens for 210€. Cheap, really.

John E Earley said:
On another forum someone mentioned that he was discussing with a soon-to-be bride what she wanted for her photos of the event. She showed him cell phone pictures and said that was what she wanted.

The smartphone camera is 18 years old and young people don't know any different.

The camera industry is doomed
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Your comment came in while I wrote mine but chose to edit it in.

Not really, I now live in a Student city and have seen more kids doing film photography than I'd expected to. Attended a small meeting with 12 people and at least 4 mentioned picking up film recently. 35mm P&S are through the roof. If something, it's a bit of a counter trend.
But yes, I think the perceived difference between phone and digital camera is not the same as the "extra mile" with film. Kodak are happy with Ektachrome being successful and testing to market 120.
 
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For a moment there, smartphones had just enough quality to get one interested in photography and then buy a real camera. Not anymore, most smartphone users will never buy an actual camera.

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In this vein, you should see the look on kids faces when they ask to look through the viewfinder of my OM-1. All my OM bodies have either the 1-4 (all matte) or 1-10 (same with grid) screens. With the standard f1.8 they are amazed at the view. Sure beats the 'stinky diaper' hold of their cell phones.
I am a bit surprised that there is no clip-on, pop up hood/magnifier for cell phones (least ways, none that I've seen). Something like the old fold down waist level finders on TLR's. With adjustable side clips, or even little elastic cords one could be made to fit a variety of different phones and would exclude light from shining on the screen so you could actually see it clearly. The eyepiece should also be focusable. It would be cheaper to make and sell it if was a fixed 'chimney' type finder, but more appealing sales wise if it were designed to be foldable.
 
The visual arts has really changed since the advent of the digital image. No more do we wait for the latest issue of ShutterBug. We want it now. And we don't really need a traditional camera to get it. That void is now taken with cell phones, pads, computer cameras, GoPros, home security systems. We have images everywhere. We just don't need cameras anymore.
 
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