Skiff
Well-known
The new digital camera sales data from the CIPA for the first half of 2016 is published:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html
The collapse in sales has even accelerated: -34% (!!) less sales compared to the same period last year. In 2015 it has been -15% compared to the same period in 2014.
So this year only about 11 mio. cameras have been built so far. Therefore it is clear that even with a very good second half of the year the total sales of 2016 will be below 30 mio. units.
That volume is about 25-30% lower compared to the film camera sales volume 16-20 years ago.
So, concerning sales volume the digital camera industry is now in a much worse situation compared to the film era.
It wouldn't be surprising at all if after Samsung we see further manufacturers leaving the market in the coming years.
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html
The collapse in sales has even accelerated: -34% (!!) less sales compared to the same period last year. In 2015 it has been -15% compared to the same period in 2014.
So this year only about 11 mio. cameras have been built so far. Therefore it is clear that even with a very good second half of the year the total sales of 2016 will be below 30 mio. units.
That volume is about 25-30% lower compared to the film camera sales volume 16-20 years ago.
So, concerning sales volume the digital camera industry is now in a much worse situation compared to the film era.
It wouldn't be surprising at all if after Samsung we see further manufacturers leaving the market in the coming years.
daveleo
what?
Yikes, the sky is falling . . . again !
tunalegs
Pretended Artist
People are probably taking more pictures than ever - but caring less about them than ever. Seems to fit in with the general attitude of our culture at the moment.
Keith
The best camera is one that still works!
I think a lot of this is due to the maturity of the technology personally. My six year old D700 is a prime example .. aside from being 12 megapixel it's still as good as anything else I own.
NeeZee
Well-known
I agree that people are taking more pictures than ever - it has become so easy. Don't know about caring less about them, though. Today a lot of people do some sort of post processing (applying filters at least), share the pictures online etc. In the 80s and 90s everyone just used their cheap P&S film camera, had the film developed and showed the prints to friends before there were thrown into a box or, if they were pictures of the holidays or the baby, put into an album. Today people have these shots printed in a photo book. I don't really see a huge cultural difference there...
sc_rufctr
Leica nuts
This... My 1DS MkII still takes great photos.
I wonder if lens sales have collapsed at the same rate.
icebear
Veteran
Most people are perfectly fine with the IQ of shots taken with their phones. For the purpose of posting these snaps online to show off where there right now, the quality is mighty fine. Nearly everybody carries a cell phone with built in camera all the time. Almost nobody but RFF nerds will carry a dedicated camera anymore.
On the other end of the spectrum there is the new Phase One 100mp medium format camera capable of 10k video recording...
On the other end of the spectrum there is the new Phase One 100mp medium format camera capable of 10k video recording...
Skiff
Well-known
No, it will remain where it is....
.Honestly, I am very relaxed because I am just aware what will happen:
- the decline will continue in the coming years
- I expect the bottom of the sales volume in the 15-20 mio. units p.a. range
- at that level the market will be too small for the current number of manufacturers
- companies like Casio, Panasonic, Sony, Ricoh / Pentax, Olympus probably will have to leave the market; but do we really need them? I don't think so, the others will fill the gap
- digital cameras will be significantly more expensive in the future, because of the strong decline in production there are negative economies of scale with increasing production costs per unit
- the remaining manufacturers need compensation and new market segments, new niches: Therefore we will see new film cameras in the coming years (film demand for instant and professional film is already increasing).
Photographers who really care for photography will have the tools they need. Personally, I can comfortably live with all of these developments...
brennanphotoguy
Well-known
I think this is most of it as well. I think when digital photography began it seemed like every year or two the cameras got substantially better and for the past 5-6 years aside from video capabilities we haven't seen much in terms of cameras doing something vastly better than the previous model. Just incremental updates. We have almost perfected the "designs" and now it's about making such and such camera sharper and the general population would be more than content with a camera from 5 years ago that still works for them instead of upgrading yearly. Also, I feel like a lot of digital camera sales to people who aren't into photography like we are come from point and shoots and those have been replaced by phones.
daveleo
what?
@Skiff . . . . pretty reasonable thoughts there. I esp agree with your ending sentences.
Technical change is inevitable. Adjust to it, find your own new processes, but don't agonize over it.
Technical change is inevitable. Adjust to it, find your own new processes, but don't agonize over it.
Ronald M
Veteran
99% of the people do not know how bad their pic are. No idea of composition etc
My granddaughter just came back from vacation with iPhone pictures. Great exposures and composition. Never had a photo lesson in he life.
Her dad had a beautiful panoramic done with a M8 & 24 mm lens. It was printed on metal and glossed and 48" long. Absolutely gorgeous.
I have 800 series Nikon and M8 and M9 and still have a D3 and D700. The Nikons make more than acceptable pic for most purposes.
Cameras are like cars. The purpose is to move you from A to B. A well serviced ten year old will do the job. Want auto transmission, air-conditioning, leather seats, etc, perhaps you need a better or newer car. Otherwise Betsy will do.
Also look at the economy. Food clothing shelter are necessities . A fancy new camera is not. As long as the economy is in the tank, luxury goods can only be sold to rich folks.
My granddaughter just came back from vacation with iPhone pictures. Great exposures and composition. Never had a photo lesson in he life.
Her dad had a beautiful panoramic done with a M8 & 24 mm lens. It was printed on metal and glossed and 48" long. Absolutely gorgeous.
I have 800 series Nikon and M8 and M9 and still have a D3 and D700. The Nikons make more than acceptable pic for most purposes.
Cameras are like cars. The purpose is to move you from A to B. A well serviced ten year old will do the job. Want auto transmission, air-conditioning, leather seats, etc, perhaps you need a better or newer car. Otherwise Betsy will do.
Also look at the economy. Food clothing shelter are necessities . A fancy new camera is not. As long as the economy is in the tank, luxury goods can only be sold to rich folks.
Timmyjoe
Veteran
The pics folks are taking with their latest generation smart phones are as good as what we took with Kodak Instamatic cameras back in the 1960's. Which is the level of photography most of the world is fine with. And most folks have their smart phone with them 24/7. So where is the market for the vast majority of digital cameras.
Pros and folks who are serious about photography will keep buying DSLR's and other higher end digital cameras, but we're a small segment of the market.
Pros and folks who are serious about photography will keep buying DSLR's and other higher end digital cameras, but we're a small segment of the market.
mpaniagua
Newby photographer
Agree. Dedicated cameras (digital and film as well) are slowly becoming a niche product instead of a mainstream product. Mostly amateur photographers and professionals are buying cameras. General public is turning to cell phones. Why not? they weight less than a dedicated camera, they already are carrying them in their pockets or purse, they give you more than acceptable quality for most application,etc.
Accept it people, camera users are slowly becoming a dying stock
.Regards.
nukecoke
⚛Yashica
That's what I feel too.
No, it will remain where it is....
Honestly, I am very relaxed because I am just aware what will happen:
- the decline will continue in the coming years
- I expect the bottom of the sales volume in the 15-20 mio. units p.a. range
- at that level the market will be too small for the current number of manufacturers
- companies like Casio, Panasonic, Sony, Ricoh / Pentax, Olympus probably will have to leave the market; but do we really need them? I don't think so, the others will fill the gap
- digital cameras will be significantly more expensive in the future, because of the strong decline in production there are negative economies of scale with increasing production costs per unit
- the remaining manufacturers need compensation and new market segments, new niches: Therefore we will see new film cameras in the coming years (film demand for instant and professional film is already increasing).
Photographers who really care for photography will have the tools they need. Personally, I can comfortably live with all of these developments...
I agree with most of this, but seeing what happens in the personal computing realm, prices won't go too high. Also, I can't see how Sony is leaving the market when the provide sensors for so many other companies.
They've turned long ago...
Agree with this.
Those that remain in the game will fill the gap, but they'll have to downsize too (actually are already being forced to).
kxl
Social Documentary
The lower numbers are probably attributable to a variety of factors, as already mentioned. Other factors may include increased use of iphones and tablets for photography, the April earthquake in Japan, etc...
Also, although the 2016 numbers are lower, the month-to-month variances seem to be consistent with variances in previous years, except for March to April 2016, which looks flatter than previous years. Don't know if that was due to the earthquake, but I would drill down on that to find not-so-obvious indicators of the sales slump.
Also, although the 2016 numbers are lower, the month-to-month variances seem to be consistent with variances in previous years, except for March to April 2016, which looks flatter than previous years. Don't know if that was due to the earthquake, but I would drill down on that to find not-so-obvious indicators of the sales slump.
Skiff
Well-known
Concerning Sony: I meant they may have to leave the camera production. Not the sensor production. If they don't do silly things, they will probably remain No. 1 sensor manufacturer
.
mpaniagua
Newby photographer
I suppose it will be similar to film production scenario. Companies are still producing films but at lower scale and to fulfil niche requirements.