Like catching a falling knife...

Carterofmars

Carterofmars

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There is a saying among stock traders: never try to catch a falling knife.

In other words, if a stock is plummeting, it's very dangerous to buy, believing that it's going to turn around or at least stabilize at any given time.

I'm kinda thinking that may be what buying an M8 may be like now. Catching a proverbial knife.

Where's the bottom?

I'm not 'rolling in it' so it's a little bit of a concern for me. ;)
 
Pickett Wilson said:
An M8 isn't an investment. It's a digital camera and it's value will decrease. As a tool, it will always be what it is, though.
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Understood.

I'm not a collector. I intend to use it. But naturally I don't want to pay 2200.00 today, for what I may pay 1500.00 a month into the future. I'd like to save a little cash for a butt kicking lens.

BTW, I'm not a stock trader. I just fix their computers. :)

.
 
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it's pretty simple, i think. sure the value of the M8 will drop as leica continues to produce "upgrades" to it, if the history of nikon/canon/etc dSLRSs holds for dRFs. so the question becomes how much value is there in shooting an M8 today versus shooting it at some point in the future when the price will be lower? only you can answer that, i believe.
 
M8 prices seemed to drop a lot after the M9 was announced, and then rise a little and stabilize. Personally I think that this is just a deat cat bounce ;)
 
Just pick the knife up off the table. :)

I am not really seeing any big drop in M8 prices, they seem pretty close to where they were prior to the M9 rollout. $2200 is in the low end right now at auction.

There has been one for sold for $1999 on PNet, and the story of an under $2k Craigslist camera. But those seem to be outliers. As for it dropping to $1500 in a month - not a chance. I think any M8 drop due to the M9 has already been accounted for.

Its not like you can sell an M8 and be half way to an M9; if you sell at $2200, you are less than 1/3 to your goal. That huge price differential actually makes the M8 appear to be a great deal at $2500 to a lot of people. I have never read so much chatter about buying one since it debuted 3 years ago. Of course all the discussion about the price dropping generates interest and some people considering buying are predicting a big price drop (for some unknown reason!) :)

I think the M8 will continue to be a $2000+ proposition for quite a while. But, then again, I could be wrong.... ;)

(Plus: a dealer has offered me over $2000 on an M9 trade, so I can't imagine selling for anything less than a couple hundred more than that)
 
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When another round of folks buy used M8's for the Leica mystique, then sell them, the prices will drop again. Without a warranty, fixing an M8 is a pricey proposition, too.

The fact that most used M8's I see for sale from individuals look like they have never been used is interesting, too.
 
Pickett Wilson said:
When another round of folks buy used M8's for the Leica mystique, then sell them, the prices will drop again. Without a warranty, fixing an M8 is a pricey proposition, too.

The fact that most used M8's I see for sale from individuals look like they have never been used is interesting, too.
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If you think people baby an M8 they paid $4500 for, wait till the used M9s hit the market!
 
Digi cams are advancing at a rapid rate rendering an older model much less capable than the new.

Film Leicas can be used regardless of age. Just put the new film into it. Put a new bulb in the enlarger and you are good to go.

Know what you are getting into with digi cams and computers and compatable programs and operating systems. Everyone was quick to buy snow leopard for Mac. Now the incompatability issues arise.

One can no longer say Leicas hold their value.
 
gdi, I suspect you are right. Buying a camera that you feel is too valuable to use with abandon just doesn't make sense to me. Puts some really cosmetically pretty used cameras on the market, though!
 
If you want it and going to use it, then buy it. if not then don't buy it. as with any digital cameras M8 will keep dropping in price. no chance of it rising :). It will be whatever the buyers are willing to pay for it. Sellers don't control the market if somebody wants $3k for his M8 I'd say good luck with that. current price seems to be hovering around $2200 right now. those who want to wait and sell can probably get more for it. Those are eager to sell and want to get rid of it fast will settle for $2k price. Time hurts digital cameras simply because new technology and improvements keep coming.
 
A new M9 costs $7000 (in the US). Used M8 prices are already at around 30% of that. At $2000, even if an M8 needed $2000 of repair it would still be $3000 less than an M9. I don't see the prices of used M8's dropping much more until there are used or demo M9's on the market, or the price of new M9's is lowered or rebates are offered.
 
Paul T. said:
But it's not the same market, is it? You have to offset the amount you would have spent on film and processing against the depreciation.
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That barely worked for me with the M8 which I paid "only" $4800 for. Luckily I didn't buy my 5D refurb earlier, or my M8 would've seen much more shelf time and never paid for its depreciation in film savings. At $7000 an M9 would take me 50% longer even if I locked the 5D in a safe and ate the combination.
 
I figure the cost of a digital camera in what I would have paid for film. I use 50 cents (US) per shot, therefor I consider a $500 camera "paid for" after 1,000 shots. If I get 2,000 shots, even better.

I'd pay $1,000 for an M8 at some point. Now you can wait for the M8 to hit $500, or even $100, but think of all the shoyts you wont get in the meantime...
 
Ronald M said:
Digi cams are advancing at a rapid rate rendering an older model much less capable than the new.

Film Leicas can be used regardless of age. Just put the new film into it. Put a new bulb in the enlarger and you are good to go.

Know what you are getting into with digi cams and computers and compatable programs and operating systems. Everyone was quick to buy snow leopard for Mac. Now the incompatability issues arise.

One can no longer say Leicas hold their value.
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You honestly believe that statement in bold? That because a new model comes out the old one quits working, and or becomes "less capable" of producing an image? It will remain as capable of producing an image as it did the day it was produced, just like a film camera will. All up until it breaks then you have it replaced. Older style films are still used and sought after even though "better" films have came out since the older styles release. Hell, the 10D I bought my girlfriend is one of my favorite cameras, and it is going on seven years old now.
 
The 10D is a good camera. I put over 70,000 exposures on one I bought new the day they were available before the shutter self destructed. Well past the expected shutter life for the 10D. Image quality was very good as well.
 
[FONT=&quot]The M9 was just released this month. Give it 4-6 months before you buy an M8. $1500 M8’s w/o warranty will be the norm then.[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Buy the April ‘puts’ and pocket >100 bucks per month between now and April. You’re gonna need that extra cash to help pay for the first service issue. :D[/FONT]
 
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