dave lackey
Veteran
From Ford Motor Co. c/o CNN:
Global gridlock can be defined by numbers. The world's population is growing and is becoming more affluent. There are approximately 6.8 billion people in the world today. Within our lifetime, that number will approach 9 billion. Today, there are about 800 million vehicles on the road worldwide, but by midcentury that number could grow to between 2 and 4 billion.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/06/26/ford.mobility/index.html?hpt=hp_c1
How does Ford Motor Co. expect to see these numbers? Each barrel of oil contains approximately 19 gallons of gasoline (one tankful for the average automobile). So, if cars increase 4-fold, then we will have approximately 3.2 billion cars (or 3.2 billion tankfuls of gas needed=3.2 billion barrels of oil) by midcentury. In other words, our gasoline consumption will increase 4-fold?
Surely there is a limit and if the concept of Peak Oil is taken seriously (and it should IMO), then, Ford Motor Co. is using the wrong numbers. Global Gridlock is not really the worry for the future if we can't fill those gas tanks.
Thank goodness I will not be around to worry about it but I am still anxiously awaiting a serious electric-powered vehicle which is a lot more conceivable in suburban USA than mass transit!
Global gridlock can be defined by numbers. The world's population is growing and is becoming more affluent. There are approximately 6.8 billion people in the world today. Within our lifetime, that number will approach 9 billion. Today, there are about 800 million vehicles on the road worldwide, but by midcentury that number could grow to between 2 and 4 billion.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/06/26/ford.mobility/index.html?hpt=hp_c1
How does Ford Motor Co. expect to see these numbers? Each barrel of oil contains approximately 19 gallons of gasoline (one tankful for the average automobile). So, if cars increase 4-fold, then we will have approximately 3.2 billion cars (or 3.2 billion tankfuls of gas needed=3.2 billion barrels of oil) by midcentury. In other words, our gasoline consumption will increase 4-fold?
Surely there is a limit and if the concept of Peak Oil is taken seriously (and it should IMO), then, Ford Motor Co. is using the wrong numbers. Global Gridlock is not really the worry for the future if we can't fill those gas tanks.
Thank goodness I will not be around to worry about it but I am still anxiously awaiting a serious electric-powered vehicle which is a lot more conceivable in suburban USA than mass transit!
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Roger Hicks
Veteran
Dear Dave,From Ford Motor Co. c/o CNN:
Global gridlock can be defined by numbers. The world's population is growing and is becoming more affluent. There are approximately 6.8 billion people in the world today. Within our lifetime, that number will approach 9 billion. Today, there are about 800 million vehicles on the road worldwide, but by midcentury that number could grow to between 2 and 4 billion.
http://www.cnn.com/2011/OPINION/06/26/ford.mobility/index.html?hpt=hp_c1
How does Ford Motor Co. expect to see these numbers? Each barrel of oil contains approximately 19 gallons of gasoline (one tankful for the average automobile). So, if cars increase 4-fold, then we will have approximately 3.2 billion cars (or 3.2 billion tankfuls of gas needed=3.2 billion barrels of oil) by midcentury. In other words, our gasoline consumption will increase 4-fold?
Surely there is a limit and if the concept of Peak Oil is taken seriously (and it should IMO), then, Ford Motor Co. is using the wrong numbers. Global Gridlock is not really the worry for the future if we can't fill those gas tanks.
What, you mean one that doesn't use short-lived batteries that are highly polluting to make and to scrap? Or take up any road space?
In the long run, mass transit is probably the only answer. The fundamental flaw in your assumption is that 2050 wil be like 1950 but with different power packs in the cars.
Also, outside the USA and a few other energy-profligate countries, a 19-gallon/75 litre fuel tank is still regarded as quite large, rather than average.
Cheers,
R.
dave lackey
Veteran
Well, maybe I didn't communicate very well...hospital stays tend to fry one's brain. I do NOT think things will be like the 1950's at all. I think Ford Motor Co is expecting to sell cars right along with the population increase. IMO, that is where they are flawed.
With peak oil in consideration, more traffic in the next 20 years, and higher prices, I think things will be radically different and more expensive by midcentury.
Worldwide, yes, 18 gallons may be a bit large for the average but in the US, it is below average (as evidenced by the preponderance of huge pickup trucks getting 12mpg and having 24-28 gallon tanks, and more). Huge vehicles are everywhere around my part of the world. Our two 1990's Mercedes vehicles (and every foreign car I have personally owned such as Toyotas) have a capacity of about 18 gallons. That is why I used the number for simplicity sake. Not important as it is an approximation to make a point.
Personally, I do not see how 4 billion or more cars can be sustainable.
As far as mass transit being more practical. It certainly is, but simply not possible when the metro Atlanta area commutes 93 million miles/day from home to work with an hour or more one-way commute being quite normal. Mass transit is just not going to happen in my lifetime in suburbia, 50 miles away from city centers. What is going to happen is most likely not going to be pretty.
All I can do is survive day to day. The future does not look good at all IMO.
N
Nikon Bob
Guest
Dave
Try not to think about the future it will take care of itself one way or another and there is not much you can do about. Mind you, if the intent is to increase angst then that is a good way to do it. Look on the bright side, should one of a number of trading blocks decide to cut off the supply of oil to another you could well see a global war in which the world population gets thinned out. Just natures way of controlling greedy humans too bad everyone suffers.
Bob
Try not to think about the future it will take care of itself one way or another and there is not much you can do about. Mind you, if the intent is to increase angst then that is a good way to do it. Look on the bright side, should one of a number of trading blocks decide to cut off the supply of oil to another you could well see a global war in which the world population gets thinned out. Just natures way of controlling greedy humans too bad everyone suffers.
Bob