Photography Economics

[Calzone]

Data from a 2014 U.S. Labor Report indicates two related stats: Photo Equipment prices are down -6.1%, but on the other hand Film and Photo Supplies are up +23.4%.

Last year KEH had a remarkable amount of surprise sales sent out via e-mail blasts. I took advantage of many and kinda loaded up the truck. I posted a thread, and at one point because the sales jumped from 15% off to 30% there was some joking about a 50% sale. Surprisingly like other rumors on RFF it became true: KEH had a 50% sale (which I somehow missed due to bad timing).

Meanwhile I definately see the prices of film going up, while even Leica offers some rather huge rebates on cameras.

Anyways we are seeing inflation and deflation at the same time here in the U.S., but I wonder what is happening to prices in Europe and Aisa as Europe faces deflation and China's economy slows.

When is the next shoe going to drop? Please only refer to either Photo equipment or film and photo supplies to stay on topic.

Cal

 

[Jamie Pillers]

Cal, another element in this equation is processing costs (especially for those of us working primarily in color). I've assumed that those costs are going to continue to spiral upward given that fewer and fewer people are using commercial processing labs.

I dropped out of film photography a number of years ago when my film plus processing costs exceeded several thousand dollars per year. I assume that those costs are significantly higher now. Given KEH's substantial discounts on film photography equipment, it looks like they see the writing on the wall as well.

 

[HHPhoto]

Data from a 2014 U.S. Labor Report indicates two related stats: Photo Equipment prices are down -6.1%,

The digital camera market is collapsing. Last year again a decline of more than 30%.
The sales in 2014 were only 1/3 (!!) of the level in 2010.
2/3 of the sales gone in only 4 years!
And there are no signs at all that this trend is changing in the foreseeable future.
Digital camera manufacturers are running in the biggest crisis in their history.
Their sales are now on a lower level than before the digital boom.
The margins are significantly declining, too.
Therefore there is a huge pressure on prices.
Lots of OEM manufacturers in Asia have already stopped production of DSC cameras.

but on the other hand Film and Photo Supplies are up +23.4%.

Kodak and Fuji had to adapt prices.
Demand is in a stabilising process now. Instant film is already in a big increase (with stable prices).
Processing costs were stable at most labs, especially in Europe (which has not a deflation in general, by the way).

Cheers, Jan

 

[jsrockit]

Lots of OEM manufacturers in Asia have already stopped production of DSC cameras.

Like who... ?

 

[Calzone]

Thanks for the responses.

Deflation is defined as excess supply, and I can see this explaining the huge sales at KEH that are almost give-aways. I can also see how this is effecting pricing on new cameras. The last time Leica offered rebates was back at the time of the housing bubble in 2007.

I'm also glad I shot a lot of film when I had the opportunity, and when I could buy unlimited supplies of rebranded Acros and Tri-X for under $3.00 a roll. Now film is becoming more of a luxury item with a crazy jump in prices. Now even Kodak 5222 is pricy.

Anyways I'm shocked on how fast the suggested transitioning is happening.

BTW at this point I'm somewhat hedged with a Leica Monochrom.

Cal

 

[btgc]

Like who... ?

In my understanding those who made myriad of low-to-medium cost compacts sold under various names, sometimes different only by logo. These were very common about 10 years ago, later they probably made non-top compacts for big names.

 

[Jamie Pillers]

Jan, I'd be interested in more details behind these numbers. For example, what segment(s) of the digital camera market are drying up? I've had the impression that a lot of the digital shrinkage is in the small point-and-shoot cameras due to the increased interest in cell phone photography. And I'd guess (and its definitely a guess) that big DSLRs sales are falling off due to the increasing capabilities of APS-C & m4/3 cameras.

Bottom line... I can't imagine any scenario that would have film and film camera sales increasing. Digital is just getting too good. Film may remain a niche technology, but in this 'gotta have it now' world, I can't imagine that digital-based imagery doing anything but taking over completely.

The digital camera market is collapsing. Last year again a decline of more than 30%.
The sales in 2014 were only 1/3 (!!) of the level in 2010.
2/3 of the sales gone in only 4 years!
And there are no signs at all that this trend is changing in the foreseeable future.
Digital camera manufacturers are running in the biggest crisis in their history.
Their sales are now on a lower level than before the digital boom.
The margins are significantly declining, too.
Therefore there is a huge pressure on prices.
Lots of OEM manufacturers in Asia have already stopped production of DSC cameras.



Kodak and Fuji had to adapt prices.
Demand is in a stabilising process now. Instant film is already in a big increase (with stable prices).
Processing costs were stable at most labs, especially in Europe (which has not a deflation in general, by the way).

Cheers, Jan

 

[jsrockit]

In my understanding those who made myriad of low-to-medium cost compacts sold under various names, sometimes different only by logo. These were very common about 10 years ago, later they probably made non-top compacts for big names.

I thought DSC was digital system cameras though.

 

[Godfrey]

The Sky Is Falling! The Sky Is Falling!

...Oh, sorry. Wrong thread. ]'-)

G

 

[Ranchu]

I was thinking yesterday how cheap film was, given how nice it looks. I think it means digital still camera, jsrockit..

 

[Calzone]

The Sky Is Falling! The Sky Is Falling!

...Oh, sorry. Wrong thread. ]'-)

G

Godfrey;

Even though this data is supplied by the U.S. government I don't think the numbers are a lie. Something is happening. 🙂

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Bottom line... I can't imagine any scenario that would have film and film camera sales increasing. Digital is just getting too good. Film may remain a niche technology, but in this 'gotta have it now' world, I can't imagine that digital-based imagery doing anything but taking over completely.

I see wisdom in your assumption, but I would also say that digital might not really ever take over completely, meaning 100%. It does seem like film is getting rarer, more expensive, and one day will be a luxury product.

It will be even more interesting when film recieves its luxury status what that market might be...

I reluctantly agree that I can't envision any reason or senario where film use might grow either, but I don't see any good reason to hoard film like bars of gold yet.

Cal

 

[btgc]

I thought DSC was digital system cameras though.

Hm...from DSC used in file names since early compacts I thought it stands for digital still cameras. Especially in context of OEM manufacturers.

 

[Godfrey]

Godfrey;

Even though this data is supplied by the U.S. government I don't think the numbers are a lie. Something is happening. 🙂

Cal

Sure something is happening: with the number of superb, excellent digital cameras made since 2007 that are still perfectly good working cameras, people who value doing photography rather than buying camera after camera are realizing that digital cameras have been mature enough for several years that you don't have to buy the latest and greatest every time something new comes to market.

The rest of the loss in sales is because smartphone cameras have become so darn good that for probably 90% of the snapshooters out there it's better to have the latest smartphone than the latest new camera. A report on the news this morning said that a poll nationwide showed that the majority of people now who own smartphones would rather work an extra day a week or do without sex for a year than give up their smartphone.

Of course this shift in buying priorities is going to affect camera companies. They've been promoting the "buy the latest and greatest every year" meme for a decade at present ... they now have to adjust their development and marketing to account for a much smaller market. It's happened before, it will happen again.

I recall that at Photokina, Alfred Schopf (CEO of Leica AG) made the statement that the big players in the industry (meaning Nikon, Canon, Sony, etc) are doing themselves a disservice and will run into problems by stressing the customer base too much with too many new models offered too frequently. The market for new cameras is not infinite and, I believe, has approached saturation for several years now.

In other words, there's nothing in that report that common sense wouldn't make obvious to anyone thinking about the camera market. Film is not going to resurge and take over, the companies will restructure and do things differently if they want to survive a change in market, etc. Digital cameras continue to improve, to sell.

Like Chicken Little, it is just a moment when you have to think what actually hit you on the head before jumping to conclusions. 🙂

G

 

[Ko.Fe.]

I'm shoeless in terms of pricing for FB paper, but it is nice to walk in and get RC at least...
Processing C-41 cost made me DiY already.
And I like those Sony and else 18+ MPs P&S under $100 price tag 🙂

 

[jsrockit]

I think it means digital still camera, jsrockit..

Got it, thanks. So, can anyone tell us the real situation? Someone who isn't pro film or pro digital? Probably not.

I agree with Godfrey though. Digital cameras, for those who aren't passionate about photography, are going to be replaced every 4-5 years or so (like computers).

 

[Calzone]

Sure something is happening: with the number of superb, excellent digital cameras made since 2007 that are still perfectly good working cameras, people who value doing photography rather than buying camera after camera are realizing that digital cameras have been mature enough for several years that you don't have to buy the latest and greatest every time something new comes to market.

The rest of the loss in sales is because smartphone cameras have become so darn good that for probably 90% of the snapshooters out there it's better to have the latest smartphone than the latest new camera. A report on the news this morning said that a poll nationwide showed that the majority of people now who own smartphones would rather work an extra day a week or do without sex for a year than give up their smartphone.

Of course this shift in buying priorities is going to affect camera companies. They've been promoting the "buy the latest and greatest every year" meme for a decade at present ... they now have to adjust their development and marketing to account for a much smaller market. It's happened before, it will happen again.

I recall that at Photokina, Alfred Schopf (CEO of Leica AG) made the statement that the big players in the industry (meaning Nikon, Canon, Sony, etc) are doing themselves a disservice and will run into problems by stressing the customer base too much with too many new models offered too frequently. The market for new cameras is not infinite and, I believe, has approached saturation for several years now.

In other words, there's nothing in that report that common sense wouldn't make obvious to anyone thinking about the camera market. Film is not going to resurge and take over, the companies will restructure and do things differently if they want to survive a change in market, etc. Digital cameras continue to improve, to sell.

Like Chicken Little, it is just a moment when you have to think what actually hit you on the head before jumping to conclusions. 🙂

G

G,

No conclusions: just wondering.

Your points are well taken. I see wisdom in how you say the market has become saturated with perfectly good cameras.

I will also add that my gal mentions that her new I-phone has a very serious camera, and my Monochrom remains a camera that I am very happy with. If anything new or better comes along I surely will keep the Monochrom, so I am right on trend with what you are saying.

Sometimes even government data means something, and I'm wondering about the deeper meaning that gets revealed in thoughtful posts.

I tend to daydream a lot. LOL.

Cal

 

[ian_watts]

I was thinking yesterday how cheap film was, given how nice it looks.

Agreed.

Prices for Kodak and (especially) Fuji have crept up in the UK but not much more than inflation. I can buy top of the line colour neg (Portra) for £5 per roll and B&W for less than that. I also recently bought some perfectly decent C41 colour film for £1 ($1.60) per roll and I can get local 1 hour minilab processing and scans done for £3 per roll.😀

E6 is a different story but even there a roll of Provia is under a tenner and good processing still available for around £6. There is plenty of reasonably priced film around.

 

[rscheffler]

As far as Leica and their rebates, those are US/Canada specific and due to the current strength of the US dollar. This approach allows Leica to keep regional prices fairly in-line around the world and to extend rebates as needed, which I believe is the case now and have also included the Monochrom. Back in 2007 Leica was a much different company, apparently on the verge of insolvency. If anything, they're one of the few camera brands bucking current trends by growing sales and market share. They're also one of the few still making film cameras.

The price changes mentioned are a reflection of supply and demand. As already explained, the digital camera market is saturated and the traditional brands are in considerable competition with each other as well as those they never previously competed against, such as massive electronics companies.

Film and related products pricing is directly related to its niche status. Kodak, Ilford, Fuji, etc. will continue to refine (cut and perhaps even add) emulsion types as demand dictates within whatever financial conditions they use to determine feasibility. If prices are increasing dramatically, it would indicate to me that manufacturers are not finding enough buyers to maintain their desired level of profitability. A similar thing actually happened in the digital market around 2008 during the recession. Sales volume dropped a fair amount and manufacturers such as Canon responded by increasing prices for certain products by a considerable amount. A lot of their new lenses, particularly the higher end niche ones, increased by 30-50% (also tied in with product updates). Back to film prices... if they're going up a lot, then it's not a surprise that places like KEH are offering bargain film camera prices. Fewer film photographers buying fewer rolls of film to me directly correlates to less need for film cameras, thus softening the used film camera market even more. Yet, what's happening with lens prices? I haven't kept close track of this, but my guess is demand for legacy SLR and RF system lenses has increased considerably over the last few years. Demand for medium format system glass should also increase with the popularity of the Pentax 645D/Z (at least for Pentax glass) as well as the quite low used prices for Leica S2 bodies

This has all been playing out for the last ~15 years. Slowly, but surely, due to various factors, so shouldn't come across as too much of a surprise.

 

[HHPhoto]

In my understanding those who made myriad of low-to-medium cost compacts sold under various names, sometimes different only by logo. These were very common about 10 years ago, later they probably made non-top compacts for big names.

Exactly.
There were more than hundred OEM manufacturers of DSC (digital still compact) cameras in the boomtime of digital camera production.
Most of them were former pure electronic companies.
And near all of them had to stop their DSC production in the last four years due to the crash in demand for this type of cameras.

Cheers, Jan