noisycheese
Normal(ish) Human
I am not sure what to make of this - any thoughts or insights would be greatly appreciated...
Link: http://www.the.me/the-leica-predicament-2014-outlook-and-beyond/
Link: http://www.the.me/the-leica-predicament-2014-outlook-and-beyond/
The Leica Predicament — 2014 Outlook and Beyond
Gathered own sources, industry chatter and added common sense. Leica isn’t in an enviable position. The competition gathers pace. Leica’s grand strength continues to be its brand recognition and, above all, the optics. The famed Leica advantage however diminishes as the quality of cameras becomes more similar. For instance, I know from personal talks with industry insiders Leica’s not happy with Fujifilm…
There’s hardly a way out of Leica if you’re heavily invested in its superb glass. But strictly photographically speaking: we all know Leica cameras are beautiful tools, in today’s rapidly changing market environment though they’re mainly a heritage thing. To be honest, I wouldn’t buy Leica shares even if I could. Even tried to buy Leica shares?
Here’s Leica’s future in a nutshell, based on industry sources and insider talks:
Leica is working on the successor to the M Typ 240. There isn’t much leeway in terms of advancements as the camera’s manual rangefinder determines its identity. I learned that Leica no longer rejects the idea of autofocus and image stabilization which will require a new generation of lenses. Priority is reportedly given to autofocus, expect image stabilization further down the road. In the long term, Leica will move away from the rangefinder M.
Before we see the next M the medium format S series will shift to CMOS sensor. Expect the next S announcement in 2014. BTW, net production cost of an M is roughly about €2,200 ($3,000).
As reported, Leica’s mirrorless system camera will be a variation of the Leica X Vario. The Leica system camera with APS-C CMOS sensor will in essence be a Panasonic with primary Leica elements. Announcement shortly before Photokina in September 2014.
Leica, clearly irked by the ascent of Fujifilm (and increasingly Sony I assume), in November 2013 acquired Swiss medium format camera maker Sinar. The The details of the transaction have not been disclosed and the strategic goals of the acquisition aren’t any more apparent. In this context increasing tensions between Leica and its strategic investor Blackstone are noteworthy. The investment fund reportedly expressed dismay with some senior Leica management decisions.
The acquisition of CMOSIS, producer of the Leica M imaging sensors, by a private equity firm might weaken Leica’s supply chain. Hiccups were already reported in the production of the LCD display for the X Vario system, manufactured by Epson which was pushing for a 4k or 8k resolution. Leica went for 920k pixels. The good news: Leica seems to understand they’ll only sell the X Vario system camera paired with fast glass, such as F1.4.
Keith
The best camera is one that still works!
Personally I don't want Leica to change too much ... I like the fact that they trade on brand name and make cameras that don't really fit in with what's happening in the market generally.
It makes them unique and desirable in a strange way.
It makes them unique and desirable in a strange way.
FrankS
Registered User
What I make of this is that it's just some guy's opinion. Maybe I'm missing something. It's late and I didn't read too thoroughly or critically.
thegman
Veteran
I find it hard to believe that Leica will move away from range finders, it's the only reason (other than just liking them) to buy a new Leica. If they go to EVF etc. then it's just another selling point removed.
35mmdelux
Veni, vidi, vici
"Industry sources and insider talks" ....if the story has a kernel of truth NAME NAMES.
A story without attribution is little more than idle gossip.
A story without attribution is little more than idle gossip.
Keith
The best camera is one that still works!
I do agree that Fuji are a thorn in their side ... as are Sony with their new full frame cameras.
A full frame X-pro wil be another hit when it happens IMO.
Interesting that the figure given for the cost of producing the M is $3000.00 so I assume the Monochrom costs that or less being the older style camera with a few tweaks. IMO they are making a motza from the MM! (wipes tear from eye)
A full frame X-pro wil be another hit when it happens IMO.
Interesting that the figure given for the cost of producing the M is $3000.00 so I assume the Monochrom costs that or less being the older style camera with a few tweaks. IMO they are making a motza from the MM! (wipes tear from eye)
I don't know what Leica's investment in CMOSIS is, if any, but if they had a controlling share it would make sourcing more secure for them. I agree it's likely for a subsequent S model to switch to CMOSIS, and if that sensor had the same pixel pitch as the M then it would have about 60 Mpx resolution, separating it more from the small-frame dSLRs.
I don't know what to think is next for the M. But shake reduction would seem obviously beneficial to us old geezers with shaky hands.
If they went with shaking the sensor, that might require a slightly larger body, which would not be welcome. But it could also feature dust removal...
Having a focus confirmation indicator wouldn't require AF lenses, while easing things for those whose eyesight makes using a coincident RF difficult.
I don't know what to think is next for the M. But shake reduction would seem obviously beneficial to us old geezers with shaky hands.
Having a focus confirmation indicator wouldn't require AF lenses, while easing things for those whose eyesight makes using a coincident RF difficult.
Richard G
Veteran
Even without this I have some concerns long term. It is very hard to stand still in industry. Their diversification might eventually sink the company, even if they do retain an M worth having. Their brand premium might underpin profits long term, so long as there is an M in the stable we all want. I know that a lot of pros have an M9 for their own work at weekends. Demand for all digital M series Leicas has obviously exceeded all expectations.
The Sinar acquisition has seen the development of a view camera that incorporates the Leica S.
For me the form factor, sensor and interface of the M9 and M Monochrom are all I want, and I committed to the Monochrom after considering the larger form and greater time spent in menus with the new M. So already within four years and 18 months I am in the same position of a Leica M2 owner who feels that all subsequent developments of the M film Leica were unnecessary or worse. And hey, I am an M2 owner. When my M digitals die and the replacement proves unsatisfactory or too expensive or whatever, I will go back to the M2. And I might still have my X100. And maybe I would pick up whatever is the new Fuji X series....
The Sinar acquisition has seen the development of a view camera that incorporates the Leica S.
For me the form factor, sensor and interface of the M9 and M Monochrom are all I want, and I committed to the Monochrom after considering the larger form and greater time spent in menus with the new M. So already within four years and 18 months I am in the same position of a Leica M2 owner who feels that all subsequent developments of the M film Leica were unnecessary or worse. And hey, I am an M2 owner. When my M digitals die and the replacement proves unsatisfactory or too expensive or whatever, I will go back to the M2. And I might still have my X100. And maybe I would pick up whatever is the new Fuji X series....
AusDLK
Famous Photographer
just received a Sony a7 today and an M-mount adapter. transferred my 50mm Sonnetar from my Leica M to it. it's still early but the M may go and close to $6000 will go back into my pocket.
with the arrival of the a7/a7r, my expensive love affair with Leica is beginning to fade.
this, I think, should worry Leica (*).
(*) not just because of me, of course, but I cannot be alone
with the arrival of the a7/a7r, my expensive love affair with Leica is beginning to fade.
this, I think, should worry Leica (*).
(*) not just because of me, of course, but I cannot be alone
back alley
IMAGES
even volvo changed it's shape...
Keith
The best camera is one that still works!
even volvo changed it's shape...
Volvo were bought by Ford several years ago and have now been on sold to a Chinese company!
back alley
IMAGES
Volvo were bought by Ford several years ago and have now been on sold to a Chinese company!
wow…chinese leicas?
Keith
The best camera is one that still works!
back alley
IMAGES
We always knew it was going to happen!![]()
i'm very sorry for your loss...
NazgulKing
Established
"Industry sources and insider talks" ....if the story has a kernel of truth NAME NAMES.
A story without attribution is little more than idle gossip.
No one in their right mind will leave a name only to get fired the next day.
In any case, I will not be surprised if Leica saw what Fujifilm was doing and grinded their teeth as they themselves wanted to do something similar for a long time but simply lacked the resources to do so. Now, they have paired with Panasonic to do the job. Probably helps that the lead designer of the Leica X series was an old Panasonic guy too.
majid
Fazal Majid
I don't know what Leica's investment in CMOSIS is, if any, but if they had a controlling share it would make sourcing more secure for them.
CMOSIS is a consulting firm - they design bespoke sensors for customers such as Leica (but mostly for industrial, not consumer applications), they don't actually manufacture them. The contracting firm, e.g. Leica, owns the resulting design. The private equity firm that bought CMOSIS didn't do it to shut down their main business.
The M240 sensors are actually manufactured by ST Microelectronics, Europe's largest semiconductor firm by revenue, that is 27% owned by the French and Italian governments. The state-of-the-art Grenoble plant that makes the sensors specializes in cameraphone sensors (they had to use stitching techniques to make the full-frame sensor for the M240). In other words, the supply of sensors is in no danger.
majid
Fazal Majid
I do agree that Fuji are a thorn in their side ... as are Sony with their new full frame cameras.
The X100 & X100S certainly killed off the X1/X2, and the RX1/RX1R was the coup de grâce. I used my X1 for about a year and ditched it when the X100 came out. I don't think demand for the M has been dented, though.
A full frame X-pro wil be another hit when it happens IMO.
Fuji is on record saying that won't happen, and the X-Pro2 won't be replaced this year. Even with the success of the X series, Fuji's camera business is not profitable and they can't afford to sustain the R&D effort they have on so many models.
GaryLH
Veteran
Whether it is idle gossip or not.. The real question is does Leica have enough revenue to stay totally on this path or does it need to deversify into other areas of digital photography such as the csc realm to survive. Right now only they and their investors really know.
Leica will most likely be last man standing when it comes to a RF camera body of any type some time down the road..whether we are talking film (Voitlander/Fuji 670 or Leica mp) or digital..
I do believe that other companies have taken potential customers from Leica..but this is true of Canon or Nikon or Sony or Fuji..etc. there will always be customers leaving for the promise of something better... It was happening in the days of film why any different then digital? Other than the fact, in digital, that next big thing is happening in a much shorter time frame.
Gary
Leica will most likely be last man standing when it comes to a RF camera body of any type some time down the road..whether we are talking film (Voitlander/Fuji 670 or Leica mp) or digital..
I do believe that other companies have taken potential customers from Leica..but this is true of Canon or Nikon or Sony or Fuji..etc. there will always be customers leaving for the promise of something better... It was happening in the days of film why any different then digital? Other than the fact, in digital, that next big thing is happening in a much shorter time frame.
Gary
Scrambler
Well-known
Leica has had one foot in the "retro" camp and another in the "excellence" camp. Fujifilm have stamped on the "retro" foot big time. In the long run this can only be a good thing for Leica.
But at the same time, the day of the mechanical rangefinder has passed. Much as I hate to admit it! The future will be short-flange cameras with TTL (electronic) viewfinders. Leica may well use a hybrid viewfinder with digital coincident image, but the mechanical RF is dead, or will be shortly. For the foreseeable future there will be an RF cam but surely they will attach this to a digital sensor with the next M.
As Sony have shown, a short-flange camera with TTL VF is infinitely adaptable. It's fairly clear that Sony will ditch the mirror - flipping or translucent - in all but specialised cameras. And they don't expect it to hurt them because you can always stick a mirrored adapter in the optical path for AF. I'd expect someone to bring out an EOS mount translucent adapter for the A7.
Leica will look to cash in on what will surely be the "next big thing" in professional cameras - FF mirrorless. And with that in mind, surely a crop (APS-C or -H) "M" in the $2-3000 range would be a good idea. Call it a digital CL...
Actually, imagine what might have been if Leica and Minolta (Sony) were still working together!
But at the same time, the day of the mechanical rangefinder has passed. Much as I hate to admit it! The future will be short-flange cameras with TTL (electronic) viewfinders. Leica may well use a hybrid viewfinder with digital coincident image, but the mechanical RF is dead, or will be shortly. For the foreseeable future there will be an RF cam but surely they will attach this to a digital sensor with the next M.
As Sony have shown, a short-flange camera with TTL VF is infinitely adaptable. It's fairly clear that Sony will ditch the mirror - flipping or translucent - in all but specialised cameras. And they don't expect it to hurt them because you can always stick a mirrored adapter in the optical path for AF. I'd expect someone to bring out an EOS mount translucent adapter for the A7.
Leica will look to cash in on what will surely be the "next big thing" in professional cameras - FF mirrorless. And with that in mind, surely a crop (APS-C or -H) "M" in the $2-3000 range would be a good idea. Call it a digital CL...
Actually, imagine what might have been if Leica and Minolta (Sony) were still working together!
ChrisLivsey
Veteran
No icon for tongue in cheek?
Perhaps that's why the digital range requires so many service trips, as reported endlessly on the forums. If they stop making them they will have a lucrative business for years keeping the stock they sold actually working and in spec. Not to mention how much longer they would need to work to clear the back orders on glass.
As the sensor size becomes full frame by default with corresponding resolution increases the limitations of swopping any lens on any camera are becoming increasingly apparent.
eg see:
http://www.lensrentals.com/blog/2013/09/there-is-no-free-lunch-episode-763-lens-adapters
http://www.lensrentals.com/blog/201... the heritage will be their salvation, again.
Perhaps that's why the digital range requires so many service trips, as reported endlessly on the forums. If they stop making them they will have a lucrative business for years keeping the stock they sold actually working and in spec. Not to mention how much longer they would need to work to clear the back orders on glass.
As the sensor size becomes full frame by default with corresponding resolution increases the limitations of swopping any lens on any camera are becoming increasingly apparent.
eg see:
http://www.lensrentals.com/blog/2013/09/there-is-no-free-lunch-episode-763-lens-adapters
http://www.lensrentals.com/blog/201... the heritage will be their salvation, again.
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