Will Nockton 1.1 cause a 50/0.95 price drop?

[Benjamin Marks]

I often wonder about this: When a new offering like this comes out there is a predictable level of hype/interest. When Mr. K got started with his remarkable run of products for LTM and M cameras it was often said that he did not want to directly challenge Leica in any exact lens segment. Putting aside a comparison of the optical quality of the lenses themselves, this does not appear to be holding true over the last couple of years

35/1.4 Nockton vs. 35 Summilux
50/2 Heliar vs. 50 Summicron
28/2 Ultron vs. 28 Summicron

I'd put the upcoming release of the 50/1.1 in this camp as a head-to-head competitor with Leica's Noctilux (as there is often a 1/10 of a stop or more difference between marked f-stop and actual f-stop on lenses)

The upcoming release of the 50/1.1 seems like it might attract those who always felt the tug of the Noctilux AND those who have or have wanted a converted Canon 50/0.95.

So: two questions: will this cause a drop in prices of the Canon super-speed lenses? What other effects to RFF'ers think this will have on the new/used markets for lenses out there.

Ben Marks

 

[Avotius]

short answer no, long answer no because if leica really cared what others prices were the m8.2 would not cost so much and so on

 

[Benjamin Marks]

I don't think that the CV line has had or ever would have an effect on Leica prices. But what about the used market? I am seeing asking prices on converted 50/.95's in the US $1,500 to $1,900 range. Will buyers consider that a a reasonable price when there is a 50/1.1 lens that was designed for an M-mount out there?

Ben

 

[maddoc]

Well, so far it was CV 50/1.5 ASPH against 50mm Summilux ASPH and the 50mm Summilux ASPH sells quite good while the production of the CV 50/1.5 has been stopped. (Pity for users of screw-mount cameras, BTW).

From example photos I have seen, the new 50/1.1 doesn`t have the character of the Canon 50/0.95 or the Noctilux. It is just a slightly more than a half stop faster CV 50/1.5 for ~ 3 times the price, IMHO.

 

[chris00nj]

I don't think the Nokton will effect the price of the Noctilux. I do think it will effect the prices of the Canon 50s though.

All else being equal, if you inject more supply into a fixed market, the price will drop. Now in reality, some of the increased supply will be bought by some people who stayed away from super speed lenses because choices were either really expensive (Noctilux) or lenses that were rather soft wide open.

The Canon 50/0.95 in M mount sells for $1400-$1600. I think it drops a few hundred dollars.

 

[Jonas]

I think it will affect the price of the "old" f:1 Nocti

 

[Palaeoboy]

I think the new Nokton will effect used prices of the older Noctilux which are incredibly high at the moment. I agree that Leica's new prices may not drop but its clear that Zeiss and Voigtlander have crossed their radar with the introduction of the Summarit lenses as a way to try and compete.

 

[tritiated]

It won't affect the scarcity of the Canon. Although it may reduce the relative scarcity if 0.95 owners decide they want to sell theirs to buy the new 1.1.

 

[Benjamin Marks]

I assumed that the greater lead time on 0.95 sales had to do with recession-hit folks whose lenses had appreciated in value trying to sell to recession-hit folks who are being more careful about how they spend their money. But if the new CV 1.1 lens does not have any focus shift issues like some of CV's recent fast offerings, I think it will be a killer, just the way the CV 35/1.2 lens is a great lens in its own right and would be worth purchasing regardless of what Leica was offering. What I can't see (and this is why I am interested in others' views on the subject) is prices staying high for the Canon (which I viewed as the superspeed choice of those who could not afford/did not want the Noctilux, particularly at the nutty prices that lens now commands) if there were a reasonably priced, well corrected, modern alternative -- which Tom A seems to suggest in his preliminary write up this is.

Ben

 

[varjag]

I'd put the upcoming release of the 50/1.1 in this camp as a head-to-head competitor with Leica's Noctilux (as there is often a 1/10 of a stop or more difference between marked f-stop and actual f-stop on lenses)

Not entirely sure if you mean that, but 1/10 a stop off f/1.1 is not f/1.0.

I agree Nokton will probably affect prices of superspeed lenses, but probably not of the current Noctilux.

 

[tbarker13]

I sort of expect the new CV lens to impact the price of other fast 50mm lenses in the same price range.
One example could be the 50 pre-asph summilux. It would be a pretty easy leap from one to the other - price-wise. Whether those summilux owners will be eager to make the jump is the question.

But I don't think it's going to impact the used pricing on Noctilux lenses. Those reside in a different orbit.

 

[Benjamin Marks]

Not entirely sure if you mean that, but 1/10 a stop off f/1.1 is not f/1.0.

I agree Nokton will probably affect prices of superspeed lenses, but probably not of the current Noctilux.

You are right, of course: bad math on my part. - Ben

 

[P. Lynn Miller]

I have no idea what will happen with the Canon f0.95, but I think the arrival of the Nokton f1.1 has softened the Noctilux f1.0 prices.

I have been saving for a Noctilux f1.0 for about 12 months, and following pricing as well. I have been offered a Noctilux f1.0 twice in the past month at prices that I would have bought in a heartbeat if the Nokton f1.1 was not announced. I am sure that the recession has had its impact on the price of the Noctilux f1.0 as well.

I am not equating the Nokton f1.1 as an equal with the Noctilux f1.0, both are very fast 50's with their own unique signature. And I am pretty certain that I will own a Noctilux f1.0 in the near future as well as the Nokton f1.1.

Personally, I think the combination of the recession and arrival of the Nokton f1.1 has precipitated a fall in the prices of the Noctilux f1.0 and possibly the Canon f0.95 as well, but I suspect it will only be temporary and if CV decides to make the Nokton f1.1 a limited run, watch all three lenses appreciate in value.

Nothing will have any effect on price of the Noctilux f0.95 except Leica management. And if history has taught us anything, Leica management do not lower prices, especially on a premium product such as the Noctilux.

 

[johannielscom]

First, once the lens gets hyped, other fast lenses will drop in price.
Next, once the lenses' characteristics are known and have been evaluated through internet shots, shooters might decide another lens suits them better, and prices of other fast lenses will go up again.

So, if you're wanting to buy an M-Hexanon 50mm f1.2 or a Canon 50mm f1.2 and don't care for the Nokton, be alert, prices are dropping as we speak.

 

[gdi]

I am sure there are people who will go for the Nokton over both the Canon and F1 Leica. But I don't think there will be a huge effect on the Canon prices because of the unique look the lens produces. I feel most people seriously considering it want that look.

The Canon is selling in the 1100-1400 range for Canon mount and a few hundred more for a converted lens. And I saw a TV lens just sold for a little less than $1000 today. The Noctilux has already dropped quite a bit from its highs and probably won't drop more due to the Cosina.

Plus, I am not sure whether the Nokton wil actually be as bright as advertised. I know my Hex 50/1.2 is noticably brighter than my Nokton 1.2. Either the CV is slower than advertised, or the Hex faster.

 

[gdi]

So, if you're wanting to buy an M-Hexanon 50mm f1.2 or a Canon 50mm f1.2 and don't care for the Nokton, be alert, prices are dropping as we speak.

I see the Canon 1.2 has really dropped. One sold here a few days ago for about $250 - but I think the cheapest Hex 1.2 I have seen recently was around $1750-1800. So, I haven't seen evidence that they are dropping much.

I think the rarity, quality and performance of the Hex will keep its price in the near $2000 range regardless of the Nokton -though the performance may be similar!