Kirk Tuck's predictions for 2012

[ChrisN]

What do people think of Kirk's prediction of a Canon rangefinder-style digital in 2012?

"But, here's my huge prediction for Canon. They will introduce a mirrorless APS-C camera, styled like a rangefinder, that has it's own line of lenses and is compatible with EF-S lenses as well. It will be sexy, riff off the Leica and Contax rangefinders of the 1950's and some of the optics will be luxe. It won't necessarily be cheap but it will exude hipster coolness and become the thing that the Fuji X100 should have been. Gorgeous, but with interchangeable lenses. The lines at the stores will look like an iPad introduction."

Read the full article here.

 

[Austerby]

Not familiar with Mr Tuck, but I wouldn't be surprised if Canon have been closely observing the new market for high quality compacts and developed their own offering. I'm not convinced they'd go down the retro route as that's now getting a bit hackneyed - its a bit like when the car makers re-invented the Beetle and the Mini. I'd expect their offering to be ultra modern, an equivalent of the M9 Titanium modernity perhaps.

 

[Richard G]

Fascinating. If Americans are in charge then I agree with Austerby, and something modern is what should happen. But one Japanese manufacturer, Fuji, has taken the retro route, and Europe and Japan are in even more trouble than when the X100 was conceived. And in the US Kodak is in terminal decline. All of this makes us hanker for a golden age past. I suspect Kirk Tuck is right. A dyed in the wool film tragic RF user now over 50 who can't stomach the price and short life of an M9 and who is so happy with the X100 and will pay the asking price for the new Fuji X Pro interchangeable lens camera is definitely going to look seriously at a rival offering from Canon. The clincher will be the lenses and Canon has a battle to make me trust their lenses over some prime Fujinons.

 

[jsrockit]

I doubt he's right. Canon will continue to rely on its G series.

 

[shadowfox]

Given their history with RF cameras and the current level of technology, if Canon cannot produce a good-looking and good-performing mirrorless camera, shame on them!

I say bring on the digital Canon P !!

 

[RedLion]

Here's my input for Tuck's Item #10: Consumer Portraits: The next thing for portraits will be a kind of moving portrait, something like this:

Earliest Kodak Kodachrome movie:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_RTnd3Smy8&feature=share

You also see this with the latest Lomography gizmo, the Lomokino ( a kind of primitive film movie camera):

http://www.lomography.com/photos/movies

 

[Out to Lunch]

Kirk Tuck?

 

[jsrockit]

Fuji sold over 100,000 X100 cameras since its introduction... which sounds like a lot. However, Nikon and Canon's DSLR sales are in the millions each year and their P&S sales are over 10 million each year. Canon does not need to worry about Canon's niche cameras. They are announcing a new G camera in a few days... a larger sensor G probably similar to Fuji's X10. I'd be shocked if they make a rangefinder like camera.

 

[rbelyell]

Given their history with RF cameras and the current level of technology, if Canon cannot produce a good-looking and good-performing mirrorless camera, shame on them!

I say bring on the digital Canon P !!

yeah, kinda like how nikon couldnt with that embarassing mirrorless thing they came out with a couple months ago. and now nikon puts out the behemouth D4, like asking the consumer to buy a mainframe computer when the market is all about ipads. these 2, canon and nikon, imo just dont get it. i'm rooting for fuji and olly and samsung, and i hope CanNikon's best days are behind them. good riddance!

 

[Godfrey]

What do people think of Kirk's prediction of a Canon rangefinder-style digital in 2012? ...

It's very predictable, pardon the pun. ;-)

I could care less, however, as I have no Canon EF lenses and have no interest in buying yet another lens system.

I don't go for 'styling' as much as I go for function ... The Ricoh GXR is very mundane, functional looking little brick but works gangbusters, as does a Leica M and an Olympus E-1. I don't think they're beautiful other than as a result of their functional competence. Same goes for Hasselblads...

I'm sure there'll be a bunch of new products this year. But I have everything I need ... and want ... excepting only the M9 body. That will come in due time.

 

[gavinlg]

I actually don't think canon will announce an interesting mirrorless camera for the time being. They'll bring out a new G series powershot with a bigger sensor and fixed zoom lens for now.

Maybe down the track...

Fuji and Sony are the ones to watch that will be innovating the interesting mirrorless future - they have nothing to lose. Olympus as well, to a lesser extent.

 

[jsrockit]

yeah, kinda like how nikon couldnt with that embarassing mirrorless thing they came out with a couple months ago.

They've been embarrassed all the way to the bank with that camera. 😀

 

[rbelyell]

I actually don't think canon will announce an interesting mirrorless camera for the time being. They'll bring out a new G series powershot with a bigger sensor and fixed zoom lens for now.

Maybe down the track...

Fuji and Sony are the ones to watch that will be innovating the interesting mirrorless future - they have nothing to lose. Olympus as well, to a lesser extent.

i dont know if its nothing to lose as much as correctly identifying where the market is. people no longer want to wield these behemouth slr's, and the public has no longer any tolerance for dealing with them in street settings.

 

[Roger Hicks]

Who the tuck is Kirk... Oh, never mind.

Cheers,

R.

 

[Hibbs]

Indeed...what the tuck?

 

[Matus]

Indeed...what the tuck?

😀 (and some 10 more)

 

[Neare]

They've been embarrassed all the way to the bank with that camera. 😀

Absolutely! I've seen so many NEX's about yet I hardly ever see any mirrorless from Panasonic or Olympus... Haven't seen anyone use a fuji x100 yet either.

 

[f6andBthere]

Beam me up Scotty! 😀

 

[celluloidprop]

Canikon don't have good reason to cannibalize their high-margin DSLR lines for cheaper mirrorless systems (or even high-end boutique systems). That's why Nikon went with the V1 (which, by all accounts, is a very good camera and making them a ton of money - but isn't costing them many D5100/D7000 sales) and Canon has expressed no interest.

I think Tuck, when talking about the decline of 'pro photography' may miss out on the concept of specialized knowledge. People pay for things they can't do for themselves due to a technological/skill/knowledge barrier - a big chunk of people today have cameras and computers perfectly capable of producing a 'good' digital file for their uses, and the basic skills are easily learned. No stinky, space-consuming darkroom or years of learning how to print required.
The opposite has happened in other realms - 50 years ago, most people could make basic repairs to their automobile, doing so today requires expensive tools and the ability to use them - and very few of us have that.

 

[christian.rudman]

Kirk Tuck is a professional photographer in Austin with a small but loyal following and a bloated sense of blogging. I'm no personal fan, but the guy knows his stuff, just seems to get a bit wordy on his posts.

As to his predictions, I don't think he could be further from the truth. Canon makes enough money that they have no desire to expand their product line out of the current cash cows. They have already announced that the expansion of the G series is their main goal in that portion of the market.

My personal prediction is that Canon will NOT create a mirrorless in 2012. If they are going to step into that arena at all, I would look for a delay until 2013 (unless they hit the cusp of 2012).