NYC Journal

A headline that is kinda true: “U.S. Stocks Are No Safe Haven.”

What is not said is than neither are U.S. Bonds.

Don’t forget that The Donald has bankrupted sever casinos he owned.

I hate to speculate, but he kinda is doing just that to our country and economy.

Cal
 
It is 10:12 AM and the DOW is down over 426 points, giving back yesterday’s gains.

A red screen begins the market opening.

Who here believes tariffs are good? Who believes that tariffs are not inflationary? Who thinks that tariffs are not a new tax?

Why did most Americans vote for this? Americans are mighty dumb. Self inflicted wounds…

Cal
 
Calzone said:
...

I hate to speculate, but he kinda is doing just that to our country and economy.

Cal
Click to expand...

Calzone said:
...

Why did most Americans vote for this? Americans are mighty dumb. Self inflicted wounds…

Cal
Click to expand...
...doing it not only to your country, unfortunately!
Markets around the world are upset!
 
My radiation treatment will begin sometime after Memorial Day. Looks like 7-8 weeks, 5-days a week, excluding holidays.

I’ll be getting some “inhibitor” that compliments the ADT (hormone therapy) that has side effects like high blood pressure.

Looks like I will be on ADT along with this inhibitor for 2 years and not one-year.

Seems like a team of onocologists are being assembled, as I heard 4 of them. I’ll get notifications for referrals soon like in the next week.

Know that my decipher score was very high and I have many risk factors. Seems like I will get the most aggressive treatments.

Didn’t some yard work that I guess could be considered gardening. Made a 5x15 foot raised bed on the “table” in the back-backyard. I used logs I had on hand for the sides. Turned over the soil, and added some mulch that was residual from my dead end.

We have some ground cover seed that will help build the soil.

Plan “A” is for a cure, but since it takes up to a year for testosterone levels to return to normal it will take likely three years from yesterday to know if I’m cured.

The problem is that the Cancer could be elsewhere, and there is a plan “B” to target the Cancer if that is the case. Pretty much drug treatment long-term.

Of course we hope Plan “A” works. In either case I can be reasonably assured of another decade of life as a 50-50 chance.
Cal
 
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Another red screen in the pre-market today, yet a pattern exists of the red turning into green, or a mixed market.

Meanwhile “open-interest” is increasing for gold futures contracts. The price action on gold seems to be “basing” going sideways to firm up the price before the next leg up.

It seems I am at risk for loosing all my testosterone production the longer I’m on ADT and the inhibitor. Pretty much have to reconcile that because of how aggressive my Cancer is that it seems evident I’ll get hormone treatment now for 2-years instead of one. I have to reconcile that I will become a different man.

Some of the side effects are weight gain, loss of muscle mass, hot flashes, loss of body hair, and there seems to be a long list of chronic diseases like heart disease, Diabetes, high blood pressure that suggest an advancement in aging.

Other side effects are bone loss and fatigue.

A kind of imperative is diet and exercise. I can see how weight gain leads to some of these side effects, and it is said that exercise can relieve some of the fatigue. Strength training can prevent bone loss, and help maintain my metabolism.

So I may truly become a skinny bitch.

Cal
 
I have been holding off with my posting about my “Money-Tree.”

When we lived in Williamsburg on the Southside, “Maggie’s” brother gifted use a small Money Tree. This was 2003-2004.

George W. Bush used fear-factor and orange alerts to sway the vote.

In 2000 I had actively was involved with Al Gore’s Champaign, I was pretty angry, and decidedly thought it was the end of Democracy for me when the presidency was decided by a Florida Supreme Court decision.

My mindset of being my brother’s keeper changed decidedly into being a greedy capitalist, and I used a credit card “convenience-check” to open a Scottrade Margin Account to day and swing trade commodities, gold and biotech. I justified my greed knowing I had to take care of just me and Maggie to ensure our survival.

At my boring day-job I kinda made a killing trading against the hedge funds. One day in 2007 oil hit $135.00 a barrel and I hit the sell button, closed my accounts, and exited the markets flush with mucho cash and profits. A few hours later that day oil hit over $147.XX a barrel, peaked and collapsed in a “blow-off” top.

That afternoon marked the beginning of the credit crisis that also led to the housing crisis. In a time when there was a credit crisis, I was flush with cash.

So the little money tree grew and turned into a very lush ball. A perfect specimen, but coinciding with the collapse that happened the leaves yellowed just before the collapse, and the plant basically died for no reason.

A very profound coincidence.

So shortly after we bought the Baby-Victorian we bought another Money Tree. In Asian culture even numbers are not favored and neither is symmetry. There were 5 or 7 stems, but stems died off and only 3 remained viable. The three living stems shed leaves and the stems grew longer and overtime got extended.

I looked at the extended branches as kinda like the markets, which I think is in a bubble. These long branches with leaves only at the ends now currently look like and resemble three palm trees, but today I take notice of a new growth towards the base of one of the branches.

So I take this surprise and believe that this is a sign and that our Baby-Victorian is represented in that new growth metaphorically, as the three extended branches get longer and longer. Know that it seems the long ends with the new growth is followed by a yellowing and die off of the lower leaves, as the branches get more and more like palm trees in resemblance.

Color me superstitious, but I don’t think the money tree is lying. I think it is giving me a sign. In a spiritual sense this is part of the divine intervention I feel almost every day.

My money tree is sending out a sign about the economy. It looks like no money tree I have ever seen.

This essay kinda resemble something that Abigail Thomas might write. She is an old woman writer who we saw at Woodstock Book Fest last year. She read a piece that had spiritual meaning and reflected nature. An old woman that is more alive than most.

Cal
 
I already have an appointment with another second hematologist. So now I have a team of three oncologists: two are hematologists; and one is a radiation oncologist.

Instead of me calling in, they called me, and because of overlooked childcare that we do I already had to reschedule.

It actually is a blessing to be retired to handle all these appointments. We have in total 5 appointments this month, all are mine except one, and in addition I have to visit a lab to get blood tested in advance of the appointment. Good thing is that the hospital, New York Columbia Presbyterian branch, is just on the other side of Peekskill about 2 1/2 miles away.

“Maggie” still has to see her eye doctor after having cataract surgery over two years ago.

Today did another 8 pull-ups in one set. So far no hot flashes, which usually kicks in after 2-3 days after the pelvic injection.

I’m already changing my diet, 3 soft boiled eggs, bread or muffins with hummus for additional plant based protien, two small midget oranges, and at times a banana. I do intermittent fasting, so I get up with the sun around 6 or 7, and eat breakfast after 10:30-11:00.

Then only dinner, generally 5-6. Cutting down the carbs and eating more protein. Upping dairy products too, even though I do calcium supplements…

Idea here is calorie restriction and carb curbing.

Last night I layed awake thinking about my fem-out. Maggie kinda set me straight when she told me about her menopause, that basically the loss of sex drive and fertility didn’t really change her, and basically she is the same person.

I guess I was concerned about having a new identity. Not really, I’m still the same jerk that seems to annoy people. LOL.

So exercise will have to be part of every day to remain healthy. This along with diet should sustain me. BTW getting fat encourages and promotes Cancer. Pretty much the goal here is to starve the Cancer and not feed it. I need to stay lean and mean.

Strength training is physically hard work, and pretty much I have the right genes to promote a high strength to weight ratio. A bonus is an ability for speed and acceleration. I guess a goal here is to move towards being more of a kinetic weapon. Part of me wants to feel confident that I can still take down a big man or bully if I have to. The fact is we live in dangerous times…

Hate crimes are on the rise… I feel the need to end any conflict quickly… The three assets to bring to a fight is speed, agility, and experience. Also ensure defeat of any opponent in a decisive manner. A real street fight lasts only a few seconds if someone knows how to fight.

What happened in Wisconsin is telling what may happen in the mid-term elections. These first 2 years of the second term though surely will be brutal.

On the guitar front, I think I will set up and adapt the 2-tone alder Tele to 11’s a light gauge string for me. The purpose is to maintain a light touch for both speed, accuracy, and most of all efficiency. The Candy Apple Strat with Trem already has 11’s, and I use it to keep my light touch.

This also allows me to recycle a set of saddles I have on hand, and saves me about $60.00 because otherwise I would need a replacement set for a Tele that has not been built out yet.

Somehow despite an aggressive Cancer I am moving forward, and not wasting any time. Cancer is the second leading cause of death in the U.S. and here I am at the age of 67 staring it down. It is a three year wait and see from last Monday to see if I am cured, or if the Prostate Cancer migrated and colonized somewhere else in my body.

Two years of ADT and inhibitor might mean my testosterone levels never recover, and then there is about a year delay if in fact there is a recovery. In effect this low T level promotes aging and the usual chronic diseases.

One reason my blood has to be monitored closely is that the inhibitor that increases the survival rate from 72% to 78% can cause liver damage and cause Diabetes. I want to enjoy this 6% bonus.

Know that 30% of Asians don’t have the M-sign to break down alcohol, and I am one of them. Alcohol to me is not a pleasant high anyways. When I get a physical exam, I get told that my liver is small, then I get asked if I drink. Pretty much this liver possible side effect is not a concern.

Again diet and exercise…

So even though retired, I have a job and work to do.

I mention and promote my use of coffee as a medicinal treatment since it is actually an irritant that makes you want to release. The doctors find this amusing.

Cal
 
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Today is day three since my chemical castration started. I was told to expect hot flashes within 2-3 days, but I have not experienced any.

I can see in the mirror tone and abs appearing in my torso from the pull-ups, and I think some fat is being replaced by muscle. I likely weight the same. Know that muscle is denser and weighs more than fat.

I can tell that I need to eat and I’m at a caloric deficit when I catch a chill, even though I’m indoors and not exposed to the cold. Pretty much I need to eat. I will make grilled cheese sandwiches on Trader Joe sour dough bread using provolone and thinly sliced purple onions that perhaps rival 4 slices of pizza.

Along with that some low sodium tomato soup.

“Maggie” has her own diet…

I did a heavy hands walk to the downtown, and used the opportunity to buy some 11 gauge guitar strings for electrics. I was running low, and I needed an excuse to do the walk as my maintenance.

A professional trainer taught me how to do burpees with dumbbells. Pretty much using a pair of thirty pounders is kinda brutal, and pretty much uses and incorporates the legs via a weighted squat, plus a curl, then an overhead dumbbell press. Sets of these don’t take a lot of time, but a lot of power is built. A burpee is a combination of a squat thrust and a pushup.

Pretty much cat-like high strength to weight ratio for speed and quickness. Could follow through with an unweighted jump.

Pull-ups don’t take a lot of time either. 5-6 max sets to exhaustion a few times a week, plus at least one max set a day. Currently I can do 8, but the goal would be 12-15.

Same with max sets of pushups a few times a week.

So with this training pretty much I’ll have lots of power, and an increased metabolism due to the caloric demands of muscle tissue just for maintenance. I should look kinda ripped if I can do this, and the key is not having to expend a lot of time.

I also figure I can do standing climbs on a bike up Reynolds Hills, a somewhat steep hill about 1/4 mile long close by my Baby-Victorian.

In another post I’ll report about a new friend who has PhD in software who is now retired, but worked for IBM in Yorktown. I asked him about AI, and I got an interesting response.

AI is one thing, but a few years from now AGI will be developed, which stands for Artificial General Intelligence. The deal with this is pretty much machines will kinda be interdisciplinary and will be on the verge of thinking and learning to be creative.

Still the infrastructure required seems like a bottleneck… Cost feasibility is a big issue…

Cal
 
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Gold hit an insane Intra-day High of $3196.60, and was trading near $3165.90. A massive spike.

The announced tariffs pretty much in my book is economic terrorism, and realize the world economy just imploded. Unbelievable amounts of tariffs starting with a blanket 10%. There is a long list, and pretty much there will be an impact around the world as far as adjustments.

The U.S. market, the biggest consumer, just disappeared. What to do with all the surplus inventory and excess capacity? Will there be UBER high unemployment? And what will be the response? Do you negotiate with an insane terrorist? Do you escalate and respond? Have trade wars begun?

A big mistake is fighting more than one front. The Orange-House knows no better. Also the proclaimed re-shoring of manufacturing requires mucho funding, capitol and time. With ill-will breeding it is doubtful cash required will come our way.

We are now lepers to be shunned, isolated, and avoided.

I expect oil prices to drop tomorrow, certainly below $70.00 because of an economic slowdown. Gold skyrocketing and oil dropping is a sign that the trap-door has opened a a free-fall will begin.

Not only here, but any country that trades goods with the U.S. Like I said terrorism…

Don’t have a name yet for tomorrow’s expected bloodbath and reaction. Gold could spike even higher.

Pretty much this shock will include some last minute binging and hoarding. One headline suggests that a price of a new car could be an additional $15K. Hope you did your purchases of durable goods early…

In February alone 5 trillion dollars was eraised from the markets alone, and here we are in March with real tariffs pending, not “TARE-IF’s?”

I imagine someone close to retirement with a heavy weighting in their 401K of equities seeing their retirement fade away tomorrow. A recovery from tomorrow’s trauma won’t happen soon.

I can also see why physical gold is insurance for what is happening.

Cal
 
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Separately I have taken notice that now Bloom Doom Guitars now does not seem from their own site anymore, and that their bodies are now sold on EBAY like MJT Guitars.

For Bloom Doom this means paying sales taxes by the buyers, and EBAY of course collects their fee from them.

Glad I bought my bodies from Bloom Doom before they did this.

“No one ever got rich by paying taxes,” rich people say.

Cal
 
DOW in the pre-markets was down at one point 1250 points, and is now hovering around over 1200 points down. Close to 3% negative.

The Nasdag is down around 4%.

Gold is still over $3.1K and oil dropped into the $67.XX range.

Can you see a global recession happening?

You do realize that the global economy never fully recovered from the downturn created by the pandemic, so how do we justify the market valuations present today, even though there was a 5 trillion dollar give back in February?

This free-fall could be a very long trip down before impact.

Economic terrorism.

Some currency traders have migrated to the Japanese Yen, but Japan has little bargaining power here with the U.S. Articles suggest that Asia is being hit and targeted most severely.

I think a world recession will begin, will it become the “Greater Depression?”

Decades of global trade development suddenly is unwinding. The world we knew is much changed. An attack on civilization…

Cal
 
No surprise, a big red screen today in the pre-markets. Oil eventually dropped below my projected $67.00 a barrel on the expected economic slowdown.

Around the world many countries will go into a recession. Demand for exported products to the U.S. effectively has been killed off.

The open will be interesting… People will panic… Many futures will be destroyed. To be clear this is an attack on the civilization as we knew it.

Do you think/believe that stops will get hit today to slowdown an expected free-fall? Then there is tomorrow… A lot of panic will set in over the weekend, and I expect a bad Monday. The trap-door has opened, look out below…

There goes someone’s retirement, as 401K accumulated wealth vaporizes. Some people will have to work longer and harder. Farmers will take a big hit. About 20% of their harvest is usually exported, and once other countries find another supply from say Brazil or Argentina, those customers (countries) will be lost likely forever.

Cal
 
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The average family is $2100.00 poorer suddenly. This is an estimated cost of the tariffs. Then consider how many people live paycheck to paycheck.

As I say, “The money has to come from somewhere…”

Another number is that our GDP will come down one percentage point. In this report they don’t expect a recession this year.

I guess most American families don’t count.

Consumption surely will be depressed. Will there be a crash landing, maybe not, but if you do the math $2.1K times an average American family is mucho money and surely is meaningful, and I think more meaningful than what many economists are discounting.

I won’t be surprised by a surprise that is not being seen by economists.

Cal

POST SCRIPT: In the report cited above they only expect a 1% increase in inflation.
 
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Circuit breakers are set at 7%, 13% and 20% for individual stocks. Today the Nasdaq is down close to 5%.

This is to moderate a free-fall and to prevent a flash-crash that might be a computer glitch or algorithm that triggers a mass sell off.

Meanwhile The DOW is down more than 3.5%, the S&P down more than 4%, and the NASDAQ more than 5%.

Cal
 
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The February trade deficit dropped 6.1%. This is a big and significant number. The meaning is less consumption and imports. The slowdown has begun…

While new unemployment claims are lower, the amount of people currently still collecting unemployment benefits are at late 2021 levels of the Pandemic.

These indicators are pointing to stagflation.

Cal
 
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