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It is nearly 8:40 EST, and the world finally woke up, and the markets are an entire red screen. As predicted a sell-off is beginning. Take note that oil is now down and priced in the $60.00 range signifying an economic slowdown ahead.

Reality is setting in, a world wide slowdown and peoples are realizing that debt is a problem. Interest rates will be high and punish people and countries with debt. Payback is a bitch.

Meanwhile a newly reported target for gold is $3750.00 by the end of this year.

Cal
 
Markets go green after red, but also were mixed. Lots of volatility.

At this point the markets are defying gravity. This all ends badly…

A “Free it is for me” story. I accumulated 4 pairs of hospital socks from ER visits, and I saved them. “Maggie” with her injury, a jammed hip joint, asked to borrow them to wear around the house.

Most people would have thrown these out, but I kept them.

Yesterday Andrew was astonished how tame our rabbits are. One approached us to about 4 feet away.

I met a neighbor at CVS who offered to give me a ride home who saw me rescue the turtle. He remarked that I looked his age which is 41. He remembers me moving in.

There is an ugly pissing match involving two authors we know. One is a big time-big deal writer. Litigation is happening, hope we don’t get suckered in. This gets nasty fast.

The gloomy weather makes me sleepy.

Rabbits on my front lawn.

Cal
 
The Japanese Yen yield went up.

Similar to the U.S. financing the deficit for the Yen is not attracting bidders, but the thing is Japanese investors now see value in buying their bonds instead of U.S. bonds because there is no currency risk.

Know that demand for the U.S. Dollar is down and there is a weakening of the dollar in value when compared to other currencies. This is currency risk.

The Japanese historically are the second biggest purchaser of U.S. debt, but that trend is now broken.

When there is a lack of bidding on U.S. bonds the prices are low, but yields go up. This in turn leads to higher interest rates.

Who will buy our debt?

This is part of the debt spiral. Deficits grow as interest rates go up, more of the payment is to cover just the interest, and less the principle.

Cal
 
Calzone said:
This is part of the debt spiral. Deficits grow as interest rates go up, more of the payment is to cover just the interest, and less the principle.

Cal
Click to expand...
I hope the health battles progress positively, and good to see things like bikes and Phil's commute.
Have had a rotation of respiratory tract viruses for a couple of weeks, together with gloomish weather. Makes it lovely to stay home and sleep, but it's annoying to not be fully healthy. At least the GP vist vouched as "you're young, it's viruses so you will get through"

Read some articles about Japan and I thought about the economic discussions. This and even social media finance (aka not the so reliable part) acknowledge that the US markets are waaay detached from reality.
I bought in during the April big bump, and now it looks like happy merry again? Oh no.

Am of the ones in agreement that the pain was just postponed with the "90 day pause". Despite different administration policies, it pretty looks like if something collapsed then it will be dominoeing to the rest.
 
Jorde,

With the longer duration bonds hovering around 5% a tipping point has been reached. One analyst suggests an 11% drop in the S&P is the adjustment required to lower the P/E ratio (Price to Equity ratio) to a more appropriate valuation.

Also I don’t think AI will get developed out where it is in every household like a PC or cell phone. Building out Data Centers is not economically feasible and absolutely not practical. There are serious infrastructure limitations like adding capacity to the grid and water supply. In less words a bubble.

Clearly the stock market here in the U.S. is way overvalued, and a slowdown is pretty evident as well as the U.S. consumer confidence is down.

The impact of tariffs really is not 90 days out, but more like 6 months out.

Cal
 
I dug in and discovered that both “Maggie’s” Yo Betty and my Yo Eddy were both produced in 1998. In 1998 is when we kinda hooked up. Call me a romantic…

In 1997 Fat Chance graduated to 1 1/8 inch steerer tubes and were corrected for a 2 1/2 inch suspension. Also by 1998 they moved away from their pressed in bottom bracket.

In 1995 the Yo Eddy got 5 ounces lighter in weight.

Maggie’s Yo Betty has a serial number YB 10 17. YB= Yo Betty; 10 is for a 10 inch frame size; and 17 means the 17th Yo Betty made. 1998 was the first year of production.

So basically we have two of the later Fat Chance examples that had the latest upgrades and evolutionary changes. Know that 1999 was the last year of production for the original Fat Chance.

Today the name has been resurrected along with the branding. The new Yo Eddie’s are 29’ers and not 26 inch mountain bikes.

So somehow I got two great examples of the pinnacle of the original Fat Chance history. What great luck.

The steel IBIS is in the basement bike lab. I’ll strip out the drivetrain tonight as a kit to save intact as a unit.

Tomorrow I hope to have time to stop by AJ’s shop.

Cal
 
Thursday I almost needed an IV of coffee to keep me awake, but Friday it seemed I was free from any drug side effects and had a robust day.

Friday I was busy building out the steel IBIS as a 3x1 with those Sun Rhyno Lite wheels. The bike weighed 23 pounds as a 1x11 XTR technical “chubby-bike” fitted with 2.35 wide tires, but now as a 3x1with stout rims/wheels and 2.1 inch wide Schwable Billy Bonkers tires is a 22 1/2 pound bike.

I just have to set the chain and the derailleur to do a test ride today.

I felt energized like my old self, pre-Cancer, and was inspired and excited with the steel IBIS buildout. Hope today that I have another somewhat normalized day like my old self. Perhaps these drugs shocked my system, and now my body made an adjustment is my hope.

I stopped by AJ’s. I suspect he might have a buyer pending for the shop because he is moving personal items out at this point.

He gifted me a place pair of 32-hole Ditch Witch rims that were made buy Sun and plans for a 3 foot high “ramp.” I loaded up on some supplies to help empty the store and got a discount. I will likely do some more shopping, maybe today.

On Thursday the grandson freaked out when he saw the guitar room. Very cute. He has a speech delay, but clearly he is gifted in intelligence. For his age his head size is in the 99th percentile.

Cal
 
The past few days have been without the 5:00 PM fade-out and pretty much the side effect of fatigue went away. Pretty much I am my old self and kinda peppy with energy.

Seems like my body acclimated to the drugs I’m on, and the side fatigue effect now seem non-existent. I still get mild hot flashes. Tuesday’s bloodwork will be the tell-all…

“Maggie” with her injury has been incapacitated, so pretty much I have been a caretaker meeting her needs. I have great patience in taking care of her. Yesterday we visited 3 nurseries, and eventually bought some plants to go in our new rose garden that are reported to repel aphids and beetles.

The baby roses arrived two days ago.

I also took the Audi A4 in for a 40K service. I have 53K on the odometer, but those miles have been country highway miles. Part of the 40K maintenance was changing the tranny fluid and a tranny tune-up.

While the cost was not cheap at $250.00 an hour labor, the A4 feels like a brand new car. I intend on driving this car 10-15 years from now…

Next year I have the differential fluids changed, the brake fluid, and the power steering fluid. Understand that the Audi is a 2015 and is a decade old, but it is built to last. Some costly maintenance.

The brakes are a 6 out of ten, where a 10 is brand new. Will likely get close to 100K miles on the OEM brakes with the country driving I do.

The steel IBIS built out as a 3x1 weighs in at 22 1/2 pounds. The wheels are heavy, but bombproof. I’ll be taking it for a test ride after this post.

Cal
 
We planted the rose garden. We had 3-4 year old climbing roses to cut our teeth on. We learned about Japanese Beetles, Aphids, and Rust.

So now we graduated to Princess Ann bushes that grow to about 4 feet wide.

Lots of “prison” work digging and mixing soil. Dug into the clay to prep the bed. Filled it with a mix of 50-50 cow manure and peat moss.

The climbing roses adorn two of the posts of our cedar pergola, and presently they are forming a canopy over one side.

Boxwoods are growing as a hedge for privacy, and the rose garden along with a lilac form a third side. The two car garage boxes in the patio and pergola.

The scale of all this is not grand. The pergola is only 10x10, and the patio only longer in one dimension. The back door to the kitchen is so close that it really is an extension of the house, and in a way like an exterior room. Surely it conveys a sense of space.

We learned from the lilac and butterfly bush to allow for ample space as these bushes mature, say in 3-4 years. “Maggie” ordered three, so the “spare” is going into a raised bed made of cedar that is about 32”X32” square. I’m hoping a cold winter does not kill the rose plant in the raised bed.

I bought a Chris King wheel set that looks kinda fresh and lightly used for the Fat Chance Yo Eddy. The existing wheels are heading south and they are not worth rebuilding or salvaging. For me going Chris King is new to me. For hubs I generally go with White Industry, the Chris King competitor.

Chris King hubs have this buzz that is mucho loud when you coast. It is a strong clicking sound that some riders don’t like. I guess I’ll find out.

The hard sell for me is that the front wheel is for a disc brake, and the rear a rim brake. On the Yo Eddy on the front wheel I have a choice between a disc brake or a V rim brake. Pretty much now I can have a disc front and a rim brake rear. Seems like these wheels were built for me. 32-hole BTW, butted, aluminum nipples. Mavic 317 and 517 rims.

The Yo Eddy will make a great 2x11 XTR bike. Will be very pretty.

The Manitou crown steerer arrived. The leg pinch area is an interference fit, so pretty much the aperture needs to be opened up to make a friction fit. Assembled the Ti legs with this Manitou crown/steerer will be the same axel-to crown height as my Rock Shox Judy SL.

The crown/steerer is the version with an aluminum steerer for weight savings, uncut, and NOS.

I used the CVS digital luggage scale to weigh the fork when fully assembled with an uncut 1 1/8th inch steerer that is 10 3/4” long: weight is slightly over 1.5 pounds. How trick is that?

So I had another day without the 5 O’clock fade. I do believe my body is compensating and minimizing the fatigue side effect.

The steel IBIS needed some tweaking and it is a mighty cool bike. A 42/32/22 chainring set allow a 63-48-33 gear inch spread. The radiation treatment might make my bottom a bit tender, so I could lower the seat and do standing riding.

Because of standing I have to hold my entire body weight. This builds lots of strength, but of course this is not efficient. Oh-well, but the rolling hills on the roadway that connects the two parking lots would be a really great interval. Then on the pedestrian path I would want to respectfully go slow anyways.

So efficient intervals about 2 blocks from my house. Then even closer is Reynold’s Hills that is kinda comparable to the Harlem Hills in Central Park. On the downhill there is a speed mound instead of a speed bump. Good for practicing as if a pump track to build acceleration.

Yesterday’s excursions to three different nurseries amplified the amount of inflation going on. It paid for the gas browse before making purchases. Prices were a bit crazy, so it paid to shop around. Our local nusery in Croton ended up having the best prices.

I ran into Brian and his son Patrick at Home Cheapo today. I wanted to get some bone-blood fertilizer to bed the new roses in when I planted them.

Brian I know from NYC who is a welder for Cornell New York Columbia Presbyterian. If I want to learn welding I have a mentor. The garage has a 100 amp service. Also the “Hot Rod Hotel” is just up the hill near Reynold’s Hill.

Got gas (Moble Premiun) $3.67 a gallon. Lower summer gas prices.

Cal
 
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Calzone said:
Thursday I almost needed an IV of coffee to keep me awake, but Friday it seemed I was free from any drug side effects and had a robust day.

Cal
Click to expand...

Life without coffee for me would be an existence, hardly worth living. So he writes, sipping his second mug of French-pressed fresh grind Toraja espresso hit of the day.

A caffeine IV, love it!

Medical research seems to have shown coffee is good to keep various age-related ailments at bay, notably heart and kidneys and liver. In moderation of course, like all good excesses should be enjoyed.

The jury's out on this one, but prostate conditions may well be on that caffeine plus list...
 
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I'm cross posting this from the other forum, I really don't want to write this all over again.
I got home and had one of those "honeydo" tasks to complete. On Friday our washing machine stopped working. I diagnosed it as a bad motor coupler. One arrived today from that river in South America and I fixed the washer no problem. Did some laundry then sat down and tried to figure out how to get this bottle generator on the bike. I went back to the idea of mounting it on the seat stay and then just said what the heck and fully installed it. It can definitely hit my left heel but I need to have better foot placement anyway, so this will keep me honest.
I hooked up the lights and took it on a ride.

GillottLights01.jpg

GillottLights02.jpg

GillottLights03.jpg

I had jumpered two Zener diodes in between the positive on the generator and a ground to reduce the wattage, but on my test ride, the headlight was far too dim. I disconnected my contraption and the light really came alive, like I expected. This is the modified Busch & Muller OneFive which I shoehorned into the Lucifer housing. For those here who haven't read the whole saga of this bike and my 1949 Rotrax, I wrote about taking modern lights and sticking them into old Lucifer and Miller housings which look very period appropriate, but actually cast usable light. The rear is a Miller housing with a Bush & Muller Secula light circuitry stuffed inside. I really think they have something in the circuitry to guard the light from damage because it was simply working as I expected without the diodes. I may put a single diode between the positive output and the mount and see if the extra bit of overvoltage protection makes the light too dim. Another ride to work in just a few hours...

Phil
 
I believe my bladder capacity has increased to the level I once had in my 20’s. Caffeine is a bladder irritant so I have been using it to train for the radiation treatments where I have to hold a full bladder for 15-20 minutes at a time.

Of course with bigger capacity the trade-off is a lower pressure in my stream…

Pure physics…

Building out the Yo Eddy as a 2x11 XTR should be EZ-PZ; I have everything I need on hand, except the wheels which will be incoming shortly. I’m excited as hell, and this will be a very pretty trophy bike for me.

Know that I have an 11-speed XTR stockpile. Could use a few spare chains though…

Looks like I will have to water the garden. A surprise sunny day.

Will celebrate Memorial Day with the kids. The Baby-Victorian with it’s yard and gardens is now a standout in the hood. Flowers in continuous bloom to catch the eye. A very cute old house that stands out.

We talked about making the front porch a 3-4 season room. Heat can be supplied by opening a living room window that connects to the front porch. The key would be to insulate fully including the floor and building new windows. The logic here is assemblies that are either full windows or screens because that’s how we use them.

No increase in taxes, and adding living space.

Our home is a bit of a paradise…

Cal
 
We have a Breville coffee machine that takes raw beans, freshly grinds them, and then brews coffee. Kinda makes the perfect coffee and strength can be dialed in to change the setting.

We love this machine so much we bought a spare/backup because life would suck without our coffee machine.

Life is great because of great coffee. Likely saves money because with good beans bought from Adam’s Fair Acre the best coffee around is right here at home.

Cal
 
Morning Devil Cal

SONY DSC by Nokton48, on Flickr

Here I'm configuring my wide Sinar Norma 4x5, this one has a 47mm F8 Super Angulon Custom Ultrawide lensboard. Full movements on 4x5 film. I using more my Hasselblad CFV16 Digital Back, the olde original one, marketed to V camera users. Now I bought a Capture One Plate from my Friend Igor in Cleveland. A Hartblei Kiev 88 1006 Ground Glass Adapter and Hartblei Stovepipe make for sharp viewing on the ground glass. Remove the GG Adapter, and pop on the CFV16 Hasselblad Digital Back. A cable is necessary to the front camera shutter, it is necessary to activate the back. 16MP CCD Fat Pixel goodness on a Technical Camera that is outstandingly sturdy and vibration free. The necessary cable is now on it's way to from the Netherlands. Cool Stuff ahead, I also bought a Hasselblad Firewire Cable (the one that comes with it), so I can tether this beastie to a Laptop. Looking for the right Firewire to USB Adapter at Micro Center. Recently I bought the Hasselblad modern Stovepipe so I can use that if I want to.


Comments encouraged.
 
Cal, do a little window shopping and go search for some home coffee brewers, some get insane. There are grinders out there which go for thousands of dollars. My Mazzer Mini I traded used for a couple ill-fitting bike frames from my friend here in Philly, and it's a machine that cost over $1000. That's an inexpensive, basic espresso grinder. My daily filter coffee grinder is a Baratza Encore with upgraded burrs. After that, is my cost-more-to-ship-than-to-buy LaPavoni Professional lever espresso machine. I overhauled it about 1.5 years ago and last August the heating element died. Just waiting for a time when I have a few hundred extra discretionary dollars, so I can put some money into it. In the meantime, I really want a more automatic espresso machine, probably and E61 heat exchanger, something that is a little more valve arm pulling easy. I don't think I'll ever have the money to buy a brand new espresso machine of any decent quality, but there are a lot of good used ones out there for much cheaper.
Make sure you clean your grinder and the chute and everything that coffee grounds touch. The oils in coffee go rancid and will spoil your brew, or just make it taste off. If you can control your brewing temperature, look into how differing temperatures affect different coffees and different roasts. In a nutshell, dark roasts need above 196F but under 200F. Light roasts need above 200, preferably 204-207F. I use a kettle and monitor my water temperature with an instant read food thermometer, so I can get the best flavor from whatever beans I'm brewing that morning.
Phil
 
Devil Dan,

I still like that bad Blad, but of course no movements. With a wide the most important movement is a rise/fall for perspective control IMHO.

Tethering is mighty cool though.

I wonder if the 4x5 with movements would be great, along with tethering for wide panoramic landscapes. My thinking of how to really exploit the 4x5 and having movements. Pretty much you could go mucho crazy with creating some huge files. Could create some great drama…

Cal
 
Went to Carmel for a BBQ.

Not so far north, but pretty far east, and almost an hour’s drive. Also lower Putnam County.

The vibe is less suburban and it is kinda rural. The kid’s house is a short walk from Lake Carmel proper, but understand that the township of Carmel has 7 lakes. Lake Carmel is kinda big, but no motorboats allowed, except electric trolling motors powered by a car battery.

So not far away a quiet rural ish life. Pretty much you have to be a resident to use the lake though, so no mob scene or crowds.

Some of the houses are “camps” that were upgraded and winterized. No sewers though.

I kinda love Peekskill more, but the Empire State Trailway kinda opens up right at Carmel, meaning uninterrupted with street crossings, so much better for serious biking, meaning a lack of pedestrians and dog walkers.

The bad though is Carmel has some rolling hills, and some climbs. One is rather steep. I had the fitness, strength and technic to climb the steep hill, but most people walk their bikes up the hill. The descent thogh creates some serious speed.

BTW Brewster and the Great Swamp is not far away, and the trailway is very pretty and winding. One section is like a long cave or tunnel hollowed through a forest, there is a canopy of trees. A few bridges that cross over roads, and a bridge path across the middle of a rather large lake.

I love this ride because of the variation, twisty in sections, hilly in others, and it supports a loneliness because it kinda gets remote. For me the lack of human contact is beautiful and refreshing.

I love my house too much, and driving 45 minutes to ride is not bad if I start at the Mahopac Library near the western side of Carmel.

This leads to the great swamp eventually…

Cal
 
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