NYC Journal

Went to Carmel for a BBQ.

Not so far north, but pretty far east, and almost an hour’s drive. Also lower Putnam County.

The vibe is less suburban and it is kinda rural. The kid’s house is a short walk from Lake Carmel proper, but understand that the township of Carmel has 7 lakes. Lake Carmel is kinda big, but no motorboats allowed, except electric trolling motors powered by a car battery.

So not far away a quiet rural ish life. Pretty much you have to be a resident to use the lake though, so no mob scene or crowds.

Some of the houses are “camps” that were upgraded and winterized. No sewers though.

I kinda love Peekskill more, but the Empire State Trailway kinda opens up right at Carmel, meaning uninterrupted with street crossings, so much better for serious biking, meaning a lack of pedestrians and dog walkers.

The bad though is Carmel has some rolling hills, and some climbs. One is rather steep. I had the fitness, strength and technic to climb the steep hill, but most people walk their bikes up the hill. The descent thogh creates some serious speed.

BTW Brewster and the Great Swamp is not far away, and the trailway is very pretty and winding. One section is like a long cave or tunnel hollowed through a forest, there is a canopy of trees. A few bridges that cross over roads, and a bridge path across the middle of a rather large lake.

I love this ride because of the variation, twisty in sections, hilly in others, and it supports a loneliness because it kinda gets remote. For me the lack of human contact is beautiful and refreshing.

I love my house too much, and driving 45 minutes to ride is not bad if I start at the Mahopac Library near the western side of Carmel.

This leads to the great swamp eventually…

Cal
 
Phil_F_NM said:
Cal, do a little window shopping and go search for some home coffee brewers, some get insane. There are grinders out there which go for thousands of dollars. My Mazzer Mini I traded used for a couple ill-fitting bike frames from my friend here in Philly, and it's a machine that cost over $1000. That's an inexpensive, basic espresso grinder. My daily filter coffee grinder is a Baratza Encore with upgraded burrs. After that, is my cost-more-to-ship-than-to-buy LaPavoni Professional lever espresso machine. I overhauled it about 1.5 years ago and last August the heating element died. Just waiting for a time when I have a few hundred extra discretionary dollars, so I can put some money into it. In the meantime, I really want a more automatic espresso machine, probably and E61 heat exchanger, something that is a little more valve arm pulling easy. I don't think I'll ever have the money to buy a brand new espresso machine of any decent quality, but there are a lot of good used ones out there for much cheaper.
Make sure you clean your grinder and the chute and everything that coffee grounds touch. The oils in coffee go rancid and will spoil your brew, or just make it taste off. If you can control your brewing temperature, look into how differing temperatures affect different coffees and different roasts. In a nutshell, dark roasts need above 196F but under 200F. Light roasts need above 200, preferably 204-207F. I use a kettle and monitor my water temperature with an instant read food thermometer, so I can get the best flavor from whatever beans I'm brewing that morning.
Phil
Click to expand...

Guitars, bikes, coffee. Gardening, grandkids. Rabbits in the back yard. An amazing thread, this...

Smoking I've never indulged in. Alcohol I like but if I had to give it up, well. Coffee, that's for life.

My grinder is a cheap China-made burrer? burro? burr-whatever! It cost a whopping' AUD $14 on Ebay with shipping included. The grind it produces looks like miniature stones but the flavour seeps out and into the coffee I make with a French press, so no need for electrified whiz-gizmo coffee makers in our household.

I had a fancy-snazzy Breville coffee maker like Cal's. It eventually snuffed out after many years of daily use but we never did get around to replacing it, due to price. For me freshly ground and French pressed coffee is 98% as good as. Mine is strong enough to coat the spoon I use to stir the pot. Also my teeth, so my dentist tells me. I have one of those pleasant caffeine smiles, not so charming but nobody seems to mind.

Indonesia (where I am now) is a coffee lover's paradise. My current hangout cafe is JCo, a Jakarta chain with many outlets in shopping malls everywhere in Java. My heady morning hit of Sumatra dark roast espresso, strong and black (with a jug of hot milk on the side if I want it) costs all of AUD $2.10 and is served in a ceramic cup and saucer with a complimentary sugar donut. So what's not to like about coffee in Indonesia?

At home I favour a strong Toraja dark roast espresso in the mornings, and a lighter medium roast 100% Arabica blend for my afternoon buzz.

In Melbourne I get my coffee beans, a mix of 75% Brazil mocha and 25% Italian espresso, from McGiver's, a small outlet in the Victoria Markets where I've shopped since 1986. The same charming lady who was there four decades ago still mixes and packs the beans as we chat about pleasant topics of the day. It's as if we've grown old together. At AUD $10 for 250 grams, still a bargain and an enduring pleasure, one of my life's small moments of joy.

Yes, coffee. Another plus-point for this most enjoyable thread. Many thanks to Cal for all these small good things.
 
Last edited:
I’m up at six AM, but I have to take the inhibitor med on an empty stomach with water, then I have to take my steroid an hour later with food.

I wait for “Maggie” to wake, so all this anticipation is like foreplay that leads to that first sip. Know That Maggie is a silly woman who watches net-flics. I go to bed at 10:00 or 10:30. They say that a regular sleeping pattern is healthy…

So I have a routine, but there is woman factor. For now knowing there is a spare backup Breville brand new unopened means we have life support.

In Seattle we went to a coffee shop and I recognized a reverse osmosis filtering system. Pretty much this produces 16 meg ohm water that is chemically pure: basically 2 Hydrogen atoms and an oxygen atom.

This is the same water I used for my analog photography that I brought home from work. This water is so reactive it is unsafe to drink because it will erode living cells and damage them. This made very strong and smooth coffee.

So many here have a coffee passion. For me tea is not the same…

Cal
 
I make my water for espresso from distilled water, but distilled water alone won't effectively extract and also won't taste quite right. I use a recipe that an engineer from I think MIT developed to give good extraction, good flavor, while also not scaling up boilers. It has been noted that the water from the NYC municipal supply is almost perfect, with the exception that the chlorine needs to be removed with something like a Brita. In a nutshell, it's .34g sodium carbonate, and .70g of food grade Epsom salt dissolved in a gallon of water. This vastly improved the taste of my espresso. If I have a really good batch of light roast beans, I'll use the distilled+salts in a pour over. I think the biggest improvement one can make to their coffee is water temperature regulation and dialing in a grinder. Cal, as a chemist, I'm sure you would completely geek out on chasing the perfect cup of coffee. It doesn't need to be expensive either. Get a thermoplastic Hario V60 (not the ceramic) and a good clear glass carafe which the V60 can sit on (I use a Bodum carafe). Then heat your water, bloom your grounds, make your coffee and Robert is your father's brother.
Phil
 
Devil Cal,

EvilBlad will be going to our local Victorian Crystal Palace, to photograph flora and fauna with the Ringlight.

SONY DSC by Nokton48, on Flickr


Here's the Hasselblad CFV16 Digital Back on the Main Menu Screen, on my 4x5 Sinar Norma. Capture One Sinar Adapter does the job at low cost. Battery Pack clips on to the bottom of the Digital Back. Need the connecting cord to the PC Socket on a shutter. My Norma Shutters would play nice with this and will be an upgrade. Easy to see the shutter controls from behind the camera. FAST. Image through the 47mm Super Angulon is super sharp and contrasty GG image. At F8 it is kind of amazing looking, being so wide. The precision lateral slide on the Norma Rear Standard means I can shoot multiple images and stitch 'em together. Would make quite a file.
 
Visited AJ today for some help.

The steel IBIS has a rear U-brake and I dialed in the Paul’s Components Cantilevers with a long straddle cable to maximize leverage. This cantilever brake is wide, so not so great as a rear brake, but as a front brake it almost has the feel and stopping power of a V-brake.

The straddle cable forms a large equilateral triangle. Understand that the Cantilever is a brake designed for tandems.

So my rear brake a BMX Fly Bikes brake lacked stopping power, so AJ gifted me some white trials pads. The compound is kinda soft and the backing and the pads themselves are arched. BTW the backing is machined aluminum, and I recognized the structural epoxy used as A4 Metalset.

So now the brakes work great. Initially though the brake squeal was like the Metro North diesel. I folded a business card in two and added in some toe-in, but it only helped a little, then I folded the business card again so now the offset toe-in is 4 times the thickness of a business card.

The brakes got quieter, but I kinda now have a built in horn if I apply the rear brake mucho hard. It is a kinda cool feature, and the brakes work great.

The old pads were cool-stop, and my guess is the rubber hardened. The feel/vibe was as if the rims were wet, meaning almost no brakes.

So AJ’s gift of pads were a slightly used set that I sanded them to remove the glaze, and a second brand new set. I figure things have to get bedded in: both the rims and brake pads are effectively brand new. Anyways these trials pads are mighty sticky.

AJ also gifted me a Ti straight bar with some backsweep. I’ll use this on the Yo Eddy build.

The wheels I bought should be delivered Friday. AJ could the steel IBIS to be rather trick.

I had my blood drawn today. Tomorrow likely the results to monitor the effects of the inhibitor to prevent possible liver or kidney damage.

Had the opportunity to weigh myself on a digital scale: 157.4 pounds. This of course was after my giant breakfast of steel cut oats that included a banana and two handfuls of blueberries, served in a large pasta bowl.

Then I had my 4 egg second breakfast with three slices of toast with mucho hummus.

Since I was gardening, Knotweeding, and moving around cinder blocks, I was sweating and drinking a lot.

Point is that 157.4 pounds, dressed without keys, wallet or watch included two rather big breakfasts. Pretty much the side effect of weight gain is not happening. July first I’ll be due for my second 3 month injection for chemical castration. I’m finishing up my first month of inhibitor ($30K cost per year) max dose, and almost a month on the steroid that goes along with the inhibitor.

Tomorrow I’ll oil the brand new 8-speed chain on the steel IBIS, and I’ll change out the grips. I bought at a half price discount a pair of Lizard Skins lock on grips. The Oury grips on the steel IBIS are thick black rubber that are kinda BMX. I’ll recycle these grips onto the Yo Eddy. Kinda retro. I used them back in the day…

I’m pleased with the steel IBIS. This bike dates back to the late 80’s and is over 35 years old. Came with a Shimano 3x6 and SIS indexed shifting was new.

The Ti IBIS has a “Hand-Job” an investment casted fist that is a rear cable hanger. My forensics denote a likely 1994 date of manufacture, and the shorter top tube of a 1994 Ti Mojo also kinda verifies my findings.

In 1995 the Ti Mojo had evolved with a longer top tube. My Ti Mountain Trials (24 inch rear wheel and UBER short 40 inch wheelbase) was likely a one-off show bike that this guy Todd bought who owned a ski and bike shop in Pennsylvania, somehow secured.

The Ti Mojo came out in 1990 or 1992. Gary Helfrick, the Godfather of Titanium bikes who founded Merlin Bikes, had joined IBIS.

What a crazy bike… Also know that the steel IBIS has horizontal dropouts like a track bike and at the longest setting the wheelbase is only 39 1/2 inches for an exciting twitchy UBER responsive ride.

Scot Nicole, the founder of IBIS, is a funny guy. Like Calzone he has a persona. My Ti IBIS Has a sticker “Moron Tubing” because they developed internally butted Titanium tubing with “more metal on the ends.” It is the quirky nerdy things of “Chuck IBIS” the persona.

When I contacted Scot Nicole about dating my bike I got a funny response. I don’t remember every bike I built, but at best I only made perhaps a few Ti bikes with a 24 inch rear wheel, in fact you might have the only one.

So pretty much a very lucky find, in fact perhaps even a miracle, just because I was bored at work and was goofing around wondering if an obscure thought/wish would get any hits on the Internet.

Cal
 
Last edited:
Getting to skinny bitch mode means riding the bike a lot. Seems like my weight is very stable, and because I kinda eat a lot. Lately I have been eating more and more plant based protein like nut butters, raw nuts and hummus. The nuts of course are a source of fat.

Because I am muscular I also have to consume lots of protein, and I also eat lots of dairy (milk and cheese).

There are comments that I look so healthy that no one would suspect I have Cancer. Like our garden I kinda look vibrant.

I think I will stop by AJ’s shop again. I have a spare black Chris King headset that I want to get installed on the IBIS SS. It does not need a new headset, but the Chris King is kinda “one and done.”

There is something developing in Japan. The yield on their long-term bonds has gone up. This is because the cost of those bonds has gone down, so this low price increases the return.

Know and understand that a mucho popular “carry-trade” is borrowing then selling Japanese Yen because of stable low rates and then investing in other assets with higher returns.

The fact is that the Bank of Japan and the Japanese are the second largest holder of U.S. Bonds, but because now buying their own currency avoids “currency risk” (fluctuations in value in comparison to other currencies) that the Japanese likely will buy their own bonds to lower their risk.

The current currency risk is that the U.S. dollar has lost a lot of value in comparison to other currencies. It is a bad time for Americans to travel overseas, and U.S. assets like stocks and bonds too are in less demand.

“Maggie” reported to me that the Euro might likely replace the U.S. dollar as the major reserve currency. This is a woman who has a limited financial understanding. This makes sense to me also, as the U.S. lost it’s Triple A credit rating, and also because that tipping point of going into a “Debt-Spiral” that Ray Dalio predicted.

The inflation in tariffs really has not trickled into the economy for real yet. There is warehousing and stocking up that at the moment is anticipating the higher prices that will be the future. Think of how all this spending on hoarding is appearing as strength in our economy, but in fact it is an artificial demand and is actually a gamble/speculation.

How many new cars were bought in anticipation of higher prices due to tariffs? Demand is being paid forward, and in the future demand will be less. Then time in a recession, will a recession get compounded?

My guess is a one-two surprise that will get compounded. A slowdown will come, and before you know it, a recession. The inflation and higher prices is being pushed out. Think the mid-term elections…

Part of the “wealth-effect” is the value of home prices to those that are homeowners. The housing market according to the Case-Schiller index of 20 areas denotes a decline in home prices. Home ownership adds a lot to the economy…

They also consumer sentiment is up due to negotiations with China…

There is a report that the stock markets have a high amount of “retail-investors” participating. Understand that retail investors are the non-professionals or the average Joe. That would explain the valuations that are overpriced.

As far as trading goes, it is a zero sum game where over time statistically 10% are winners and 90% are losers. People are trading the volatility and uncertainty, but I know how that game ends when the shoe drops. The little guy gets crushed like an ant.

The markets give, and they take away. Trading is a zero-sum game.

Cal
 
Last edited:
Got my bloodwork results. No real surprises.

There is a history function that plots the results with my other tests. Some of my low out of range results are chronic, meaning I have a normal that is normally low.

I am anemic with a low red blood cell count, low hemoglobin and low hemocrite. This explains the lower energy level.

Other indications show I have a somewhat compromised immune system. I have to likely wear a mask in the fall/winter and avoid crowds and sick people.

Friday I have my appointment with my Hemotologist to did into the results. My inhibitor dosage might have to get adjusted. From what I know my liver is being strained a bit, but my kidneys are fine.

Cal
 
U.S. treasuries yield went up. This might dampen any of the indexes from rallying.

I saw a red screen, then a mild green screen and also a mixed screen this morning. Pretty much the stockpile of debt could explode at any time. Kinda like in war when one explosion in an ammo dump leads to other explosions.

Yields on long-term Japanese 40 year bonds went up because the auction lacked bidders/buyers, then the shorter-term bonds had their yields adjusted higher, meaning existing Japanese shorter term bonds lost value.

That same thing will happen here in the U.S. but with the dollar.

Again, the Japanese are the second biggest holder of U.S. bonds and also the second largest buyers of U.S. debt.

Then don’t forget the “carry-trade” unwinding. The Yen-U.S. Dollar carry-trade is huge. Higher yields on the Yen promote unwinding this carry trade.

Understand that this carry-trade is popular with hedge funds, and hedge funds borrow money using margin to amplify their gains. The level of margin for hedge funds is thirty-to-one, so if I put up say a billion dollars I have control of up to 30 billion dollars.

So just as “leverage can amplify gains, it also can amplify loses. The Banks that lend to hedge funds have a certain amount of digression to sell the hedge fund’s assets to protect themselves, meaning the banks, from losses.

Anyways, the unwinding of the carry trade eventually will happen. Like in chaos theory all it takes is one grain of sand to disrupt the “Islands of stability” to create a massive collapse or avalanche. I say this is kinda where we stand.

The major big three reserve currencies are the U.S. Dollar, the Japanese Yen, and the Euro.

Two of those currencies have yields that are increasing, indicating that there are a lack of buyers in these two very big and important bond markets. Basically there is a limit to how much debt a currency/country can support, and we are at that threshold.

Do you see the house of cards ahead? If debt can’t be sold a collapse is ahead. Don’t forget the U.S. has 36 trillion dollars of outstanding debt, and paying this down will take a long time.

Realize that since the year 2000, when we had a balanced budget and an actual surplus, that the past 25 years have been like a credit card binge living beyond our means.

Could take 25 years or more to pay down that debt. Is really default an option?

Cal
 
The U.S. Dollar is 8% lower than the basket of currencies since the beginning of the year.

Relatively the dollar’s purchasing power is about 8% less. Like I said in another post, now is a bad time for Americans to travel a broad because the dollar is worth-less (two words).

This loss in purchasing power somehow does not get counted as inflation, but it is. In the world market the U.S. dollar has les value and buys you less. Imported goods now either cost more, or you get less for a dollar’s worth.

It is very untypical for the dollar to decline in value at the same time that bonds are also are declining in value, meaning that yields are going up.

Higher yields typically mean bonds are of higher value because of the higher return (yield), but this time the higher yields are not reinforcing a demand to buy U.S. bonds.

This is a sign that our debt is being looked upon as being a bad investment. The lower credit rating by Moodies, the last holdout on our Triple A rating, now is displaying the deeper meaning.

BTW this is the beginning of a debt-spiral. Rolling over debt was easy when interest rates were low, but now rolling over compounds the debt with higher interest, effectively adding weight to the 36 trillion dollars debt load that the U.S. is sitting on. That $36 trillion is 25 years of living on credit…

Cal
 
Mowed the lawn. Treated the roses for rust with a dilution of sulfur.

Had a chance to change the grips on the steel IBIS and oil the chain. I charged the Reynold’s Hills climb. Initially as you leave Peekskill technically towards Dicky Brook is a down hill that lets you easily pick up speed, then on the other side it ramps up steeply killing the momentum you stored up.

A downshift is soon required, and then there is an effort to stay on top of the gear, but quickly the low gear is needed.

By the time you hit the apogee pretty much all your strength is gone. This climb is a “heart-stopper.”

I can feel the effect in my chest and shoulders.

Cal
 
Personal opinion, the Yuan is probably poised to take the reserve spot if we aren’t careful. Lots of energy behind getting it used as a backing currency for oil deals, and South America and a lot of Africa are already fairly chummy with the Belt & Road crowd… I wouldn’t be surprised if you see a push, especially as we flounder. The obvious future of a “digital Yuan” also probably helps, since we’re spinning our gears on that idea.
 
Since this morning’s post there are other headlines that pretty much speak about the danger of the carry trade imploding.

When this happens they say that the world’s GNP will drop 1%. No winners either, everyone looses. The unwinding of debt will get compounded in a very bad way: both governments and individuals. Everyone will have to pay more on interest, and interest rates will be chronically high.

That 1% haircut in world GDP I think is too small a number. Think about how money is stimulas and how that fuels both growth and consumption. Tight money means clamping down on consumption big time. 1% is delusional.

Cal
 
My vote for the U.S. Dollar replacement is actually the Euro.

One of the reasons the U.S. is loosing ground is the collapse of “Rule of Law.”

The U.S. currently is unstable.

Don’t think that China is stable. If you read other posts here the Belt and Road policy indebted many developing countries with debt. Also these projects are known to be inoperable, poorly engineered and designed, and are structurally flawed. Chinese labor also was used.

China has some big structural problems. One is the demographic of not only an aging population, but also a population collapse due to the failed one-child policy. An economic rule is that for an economy to grow it needs/requires a growing population. China’s population will implode within a decade.

Then there is a new culture in China where young people do not want to marry or have children. Then there are way too many males and not enough females of child bearing age because the one child per household encouraged infantcide.

Too many reasons to list why China will never get to be much of anything.

Cal
 
The FED talked of recession and inflation risks and a red screen appeared. The DOW is down moderately at around 250 points.

Did my gas fill up. Premium at my same Moble station $3.639 a gallon. I figure cheaper for the summer blend.

Cal
 
I run a business that sells paint manufactured in Europe (mostly Germany and Portugal). We’ve basically had to put the entire company on pause while we wait to see what happens with tariffs. It’s a mess.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom