2016: a glut of cheap high quality digicams that nobody wants???

wray said:
The biggest potential problem with buying older digital cameras just might be finding batteries to power them!
Click to expand...

Except those running on AA's like early Pentax DSLRs 🙂

As for memory cards - now when CF's are very expensive per gigabyte and those old cameras don't use advantage of high transfer speeds - adapters allowing to use SD-like cards are the answer.

What do you think about camera market this days when people, five years ago looking for advanced compact (mainly because they just have spare money) nowadays use their phones, apple-badged in particular? They spend money on travel instead, not to buy another energy dependant device.
So, if total number of camera buyers continue to shrink, how camera makers will respond? Make even more camera models with more features and high build quality - to loose remaining ever buying customers at their expense? Or real cameras will become luxury and will cost accordingly and film or digital will be equally exclusive and expensive hobby?
 
I prefer to buy in the higher price gamut, but ALWAYS used, never as early adopter usually you save 50percent or more..
 
in 2016, no doubt am enjoying affordable FF-bodies, but also jonesing latest and greatest toys just like now 😛
 
What I wonder about, is how things will look, should the current compact market disappear, to be replaced entirely by smartphones. That would be a game changer for all current camera manufacturers, and can't see why it will not happen.

Sensor technology is getting to the point, where further improvements make a difference to a smaller and smaller portion of photographers. The new battleground I think, will be on form, and we're already seeing this (thankfully).

All in all, if the market shrinks, something has to give, I think. Either we won't be seeing new models every other year, models will become more expensive, or perhaps both. Maybe we'll see the digital bubble burst, and the market flatten substantially.
 
I always felt that as the megapixel race reached its inevitable conclusion the industy's innovation would eventually have to switch to some other source of competitive advantage.

More recently we have seen the move towards full frame sensors and the accompanying increase in DR and high ISO response. I figure though that these particular sources of advantage will not not be able to be drawn out as long as the decade of so long megapixel contest (Hell we are already seeing ISO levels of above 100,000 - where on earth do you go from there?) I do think the megapixel race was dragged out in a kind of industry based wink-wink 'non agreement', agreement as it was a nice little earner and a kind of no brainer- after all camera makers need a new model each year, how easy just to make a new model with a few more megapixels and a couple of more software bells and whistles.

My guess is that had they wanted to, we could have been at today's position several years ago if there were the incentives to do so but that's not how the industry works. You have to drip feed the buying public on innovations so they will keep buying. But even so, that has to get harder and harder as the products become mature. Certianly as some people point out convergence is a proven mode of competition and in phone cameras are getting better but many of use will not be happy with those as we WANT to be set apart from the common herd who use them. (That's as I see it - otherwise who would buy a Leica?)

I wonder what the next race / 'drip feed' will all be about. Smarter software, surely. We are already seeing that - cameras that recognize particular people's faces and focus on them are already old hat. As are cameras that allow you to take multiple images and have the camera meld them to get a better single output. I bought my Sony NEX becasue of its ability to take multiple images in this way - I have still never used that.

I must admit I do not use most of the menu operated bells and whistles, most of which are just gimmicks for the buying public, I turn them off and just revert to good old aperture priority. But it does raise a question in my mind......

And more and better in camera processing (e.g. we already see cams with software that recognize the faults of specific lenses when mounted and automatically fixes them in camera.) And of course there will probably be other sensor technologies, be it foveon based sensors or something else.

I wonder what else will come along in terms of hardware and software to drive 'innovation' based sales. What do people here think? I guess one thing is for sure - it means bargains for us. I recently picked up a mint Lumix Gf1 body for $175 as it had sat on someones shelf for too long.
 
How about a realisation of the internet spoof featuring a sensor unfurling from a 35mm sized 'film' canister? Then we could have mechanical,manual cameras with a digital interface. Or just use our old film versions?
I'm in.
 
steveclem said:
How about a realisation of the internet spoof featuring a sensor unfurling from a 35mm sized 'film' canister? Then we could have mechanical,manual cameras with a digital interface. Or just use our old film versions?
I'm in.
Click to expand...

If industry would figure out they can make "digital film" with limited life span, or even plainly subscription based (it works while one pays for) it could be next market boom. All those people wanting to try camera from their youth or dad's cameras...and no need to develop and scan film! Just pop out canister and download files to computer!
 
The big advantage of higher MP is, that you can use it as digital zoom with lots of crop reserve. For the sizes I print, 10MP would be enough, but with 22 MP I can leave the heavy 85mm at home and can travel with 24mm and 50mm.
 
PKR said:
Most people are just lazy or too tired (after a day's work) to devote their time to a serious interest. The less than 1 or 2 % that do, see some level of success over time.
Click to expand...

Plus, not everyone is meant to succeed. That's the funny thing... you can devote a huge amount of time to something and still not succeed (believe me I know - music). Unless you make a living with something (or are trying to), you better only be chasing a dream out of pure love. At 39, I only do photography because I love to do it. I haven't showed new work on the internet in a long time, but I make a book of work every month to show people in person and to see it in a different form than just on screen (it helps me edit). I have no delusions, but people say they see major improvements in my work because I put the time and effort in over the last 1-2 years. That doesn't mean I'll succeed in anyone else's eyes but my own. Unfortunately, I'm my own biggest fan. 😱
 
Has anybody seen any articles that describe what the manufacturers' long term strategy will be?
Click to expand...

Do they need any strategy for that? Electronics break down eventually and the smaller they become, the faster they break. So you have a market for replacement. At the same time price goes down so you end up with a market that can just as well be driven by fashion. Look at the gsm market.
 
btgc said:
If industry would figure out they can make "digital film" with limited life span, or even plainly subscription based (it works while one pays for) it could be next market boom. All those people wanting to try camera from their youth or dad's cameras...and no need to develop and scan film! Just pop out canister and download files to computer!
Click to expand...

Well, believe it or not... but someone already did something quite similar. In december 2011, an app called 'Hipstamatic Disposable' was launched for the iPhone. This was a followup to the digital 'retro' camera with 'film packs' and 'lenses' for sale - nothing physical, but all within the application.

The Hipstamatic Disposable took that concept one step further. If you installed the app, you actually had to buy - with real money - virtual film rolls. Once you filled that virtual 'roll', it was 'developed' in your iPhone, and you had to buy another roll!.

The fact that you don't hear anything about Hipstamatic these days should be an indication that the business model didn't quite work. They eventually redid the app to let you buy unlimited film rolls for a single payment. Of course, by that time, the damage was already done. The app is no longer available and everyone has since switched to Instagram.
 
PKR said:
I have an older camera (Kodak SLRn) that I've kept. It's great in the studio for b+w conversion (studio lighting). I bought a bunch of memory when it started becoming a problem to find. Batteries are still made and have been easy to find. The newer ones are actually much better than the OEM Batts.

As for a raw standard, it's like hoping for a universal lens mount in the past - forget it, or go to M43.

As sensors improve and image processors advance, M43 may be an option for many who now insist on FF digital.
Click to expand...

Good think it wasn't a Sony Mavica because I think the lesson would be a little easier to understand.
 
Camera companies competed against each other with tiny differences in packaging and pricing for most of their history, all using the same 'sensor' - film. (Anyone remember the full page 47th St Photo ads in the NYT Leisure section of the 70s and 80s?)

This is familiar ground to them. There will be plenty of insignificant differences to fuss about.


- Charlie
 
froyd said:
The bigger issue might become corollary technology, like USB ports and SD cards.

There are some good scanners that are hard to keep working today because they require SCSI ports. Or how about those old Fuji digicam with xD cards.

There will always be a niche market for adapters and converters, but at some point it will become too much of a hassle to get images off the older cameras.

And let's pray manufacturers will one day agree to a universal RAW standard.
Click to expand...

I have read an article about the oldest computer running on regular basis a few years ago. The winner of the "contest" was a PC XT running in some scietnific institute to operate some scientific machine. It was fully sufficient and the software wouldn´t run o newer hardware so it wasn´t easy to replace it.

In my former job we preserved a computer with old software installed to read old zip disks with backups. This is the likely solution to the problem - but it is space consuming.
 
DWScarpa said:
You could have made the same statement five years ago. We are already way past the point of diminishing returns.

For $500, a Nikon D5000 can deliver results that are undiscernable in print from just about any other digital camera, even at high ISOs. Everything beyond that level is essentially overspecc'd for all but a tiny percentage of specialized pro photographers. Any great photographer of the past -- Avedon, Nachtwey, whatever -- could have built a career with that camera.

Which means that when 2016 rolls around, the same group of people are going to be fantasizing about being able to buy that year's camera -- 80MP, ISO 1,000,000, whatever -- in 2020.

And that's what camera manufacturers now rely upon -- not the reality of photographers' needs, which were exceeded years ago, but a perceived need, a psychological need to keep up.
Click to expand...

An excellent point. Now that my wife and I have decided to get out of the wedding business, I'm thinking of selling both of our D700s and buying a D3100/3200/5100 for my daily camera. I might even just skip those, sell everything, and keep my D3000.

It's not nearly as fancy as my D700, but it's lighter, smaller, simpler, and still far better at high ISOs than my Fz7, which is what I reach for far more than my D700 for taking pictures of family due to how it makes photography seem like less of a job. And when you're shooting with sub $500 DSLRs, if they break after a few years, you won't break the bank buying a new one.
 
Such a glut may wake photographers up, and everybody will apologize to their film cameras in their closets. Then there will be a return to using only film cameras.

It is a thought.
 
The more the time goes by, the more I stack FB prints over my present +4000 stack. And the more time goes by, they appreciate in value.
By 2020, or 2030, hanging a fine, amazing FB print on a wall will be the highest statement one will be able to make, next to a 4000$ light pendant or a 8000$ hardwood 10' long table from Bali or Indonesia. I'm talking 2013 prices. Add 35% by 2020.

I know I'm riding the good wave.

All this digital BS mainly aims at the Ikea crowd.
 
Clint Troy said:
The more the time goes by, the more I stack FB prints over my present +4000 stack. And the more time goes by, they appreciate in value.
By 2020, or 2030, hanging a fine, amazing FB print on a wall will be the highest statement one will be able to make, next to a 4000$ light pendant or a 8000$ hardwood 10' long table from Bali or Indonesia. I'm talking 2013 prices. Add 35% by 2020.

I know I'm riding the good wave.

All this digital BS mainly aims at the Ikea crowd.
Click to expand...

what's the sky like on your planet?
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top Bottom