BREXIT: UK members might want to consider GAS before the June 23 referendum

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Back to the main topic - the time to buy stuff from the UK in the event of BREXIT will be in the immediate aftermath of the vote because Sterling will tank but the UK will still be a member of the EU.
 
tom.w.bn said:
Who in this scenario is a critical thinker and who is the elite? Just curious.
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The first are all the people who haven't been on TV telling us what to do and why and the second group are the non-doms and rich foreigners who have bought a British passport legally.

Regards, David
 
I highly doubt that Britain will exit the EU. Despite all their EU hate, they benefit way too much from the EU and it would be suicidal for the British economy if they'd leave.
 
Austerby said:
I don't think we need worry about a Brexit - the Leave campaign has not carried the country with their belittling approach to the rest of the world.
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I hope that you're right, and I wish I had your certitude. The polls are finely balanced, and given their hopeless lack of accuracy in last year's election, it's far too close for my liking.
 
RObert Budding said:
Were those forecasts made by economists? The very same group who didn't predict the financial crisis, and who still can't explain what happened?
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Dear Robert,

I share your cynicism when it comes to economists, and there are plenty of politicians who are no more reliable; but when you combine the opinions of economists, politicians, scientists, business leaders, and academics in almost all fields, the Leave campaign doesn't have much intellectual weight behind it.

Then consider that the official Leave campaign is led by an unprincipled opportunist liar, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, and that the less official version is backed by Nigel Farage because A.B. de P. J. isn't loony enough for him...

Actually, all economists can explain what happen, because ex post facto explanations are the very stuff of economics, and a few can even explain convincingly: read Ha-Joon Chang, for example. Some also warned that it was going to happen.

I somewhat doubt that many who favour Brexit are much into buying anything directly from other EU countries, because they don't want their cameras smelling of garlic or being stuffed with sausages, even if there were no risk that when you opened the back door of any film camera bought from Europe, 70 million tiny Turks and Albanians would immediately pour out.

The only supporter of UKIP (for Americans, the UK Independence Party) that I knew at all well (he's dead now) was in his 80s before he developed those views, which were greatly at odds with those of his younger, more rational self.

Cheers,

R.
 
If the Pound falls, and German and Japanese gear gets more expensive, the Britons will still be able to use this:
http://www.ebay.co.uk/itm/Vintage-1...004724?hash=item281a4de674:g:aXoAAOSwbYZXXrqW.
Isn't the "control" what the leave team hopes for? Beyond the petty national accounting, and above lies such as that the EU is antidemocratic, wouldn't it be a sensible idea to contribute to the strength of Europe in this increasingly globalised world, while retaining the possibility to shape its future? Cooperation in the end favours everybody.
 
I hope they do vote "Stay", but I guess EU (including UK) can do some "CLA". I've been thinking (and reading Stiglitz, Krugman and Reich confirms my thoughts) that it's not that much EU fault, but rather capitalism itself that is a bit out of adjustment. Acknowledging this and having plan how to fix it (and not only by austerity which leads to "jobless GDP growth") would probably help EU case as well...
 
Roger Hicks said:
Dear Robert,

I share your cynicism when it comes to economists, and there are plenty of politicians who are no more reliable; but when you combine the opinions of economists, politicians, scientists, business leaders, and academics in almost all fields, the Leave campaign doesn't have much intellectual weight behind it.

Then consider that the official Leave campaign is led by an unprincipled opportunist liar, Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson, and that the less official version is backed by Nigel Farage because A.B. de P. J. isn't loony enough for him...

Actually, all economists can explain what happen, because ex post facto explanations are the very stuff of economics, and a few can even explain convincingly: read Ha-Joon Chang, for example. Some also warned that it was going to happen.

I somewhat doubt that many who favour Brexit are much into buying anything directly from other EU countries, because they don't want their cameras smelling of garlic or being stuffed with sausages, even if there were no risk that when you opened the back door of any film camera bought from Europe, 70 million tiny Turks and Albanians would immediately pour out.

The only supporter of UKIP (for Americans, the UK Independence Party) that I knew at all well (he's dead now) was in his 80s before he developed those views, which were greatly at odds with those of his younger, more rational self.

Cheers,

R.
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It may be worth noting that these same economists and business leaders etc prophesised a similar level of doom at the prospect of the UK not joining the Euro. They were wrong (really very badly wrong) then so why should they be trusted now? There is very little merit in many of the economic claims being made by either side. If you believe differently then perhaps digging a little deeper into the facts might prove enlightening. Your assertion (however mild) that anyone who wants to leave the EU is anti European and the language you use to suggest this is well below the belt and in bad taste. There are, believe it or not, some people who will base their decision on the few grains of truth they can glean from the often spurious arguments, not hyperbole.
 
Gid said:
It may be worth noting that these same economists and business leaders etc prophesised a similar level of doom at the prospect of the UK not joining the Euro. They were wrong (really very badly wrong) then so why should they be trusted now? There is very little merit in many of the economic claims being made by either side. If you believe differently then perhaps digging a little deeper into the facts might prove enlightening. Your assertion (however mild) that anyone who wants to leave the EU is anti European and the language you use to suggest this is well below the belt and in bad taste. There are, believe it or not, some people who will base their decision on the few grains of truth they can glean from the often spurious arguments, not hyperbole.
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With the sheer complexity of the possible outcomes of staying or leaving, plus the ease with which any supposed verifiable facts and figures can be recast and respun to suit, I would say it's best to decide based on gut instinct.
To me it seems very short term thinking [as we seem prone to being in the uk] to leave. For the long term stability both politically and militarily, I believe staying in the EU is the safer bet. I don't believe leaving the EU would be the disaster the worst of the stay campaign have suggested, but nor do I believe the EU will cut us a trade deal as easily as the brexit camp would like us to think, there will be some punishment even if it hurts the EU as well, I think anyone who thinks otherwise is kidding themselves.
Undoubtedly the EU is in need of many reforms, but I see staying in and collaboration as a civilising force and leaving as a pessimistic and destabilising one.
None of this can I back up with any facts and figures that won't be countered by someone with the opposite gut feeling, tis the nature of the beast, very much like the Scottish independence vote was.
 
13Promet said:
I'm not sure about this.
A tax-free border would be mutual, and AFAIK UK is importing from Germany, France and Italy much more than it is exporting to them.
Therefore, it would be in main EU conuntries advantage to keep a tax-free goods exchange.
We can expect EU to folllow this route unless they really whish to punish UK.

Bottom line it would be, as we use to say, "to rip off your balls in order to punish your wife".
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I don't see why the EU countries should allow a tax free treatment to a country that exited out of EU saying they are a corrupted organisation.

BTW, as Italian you should know that in case of Brexit your fellow citizens will need a VISA to work there and they will have no access to NHS and all the other privileges the EU citizens right now get in the UK.

Roger Hicks said:
Why do the Exit brigade call remain "project fear" when they are the ones making up frightening nonsense such as £350 million a week, pretending that Turkey is about to join the EU and export its entire population, etc.?

Cheers,

R.
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The best "story" I heard here in the UK is that the EU gives money to European companies (namely British, because they don't care about other European companies) to outsource plants OUT of the EU. And they blindly believe that, like that the EU gives money to Ford to outsource the production in Turkey or to JLR to outsource to China.

They are also mysteriously convinced that the members of the European Parliament are not voted (so who nominates the British members in Brussels like Farage?) and there is no hope to try to explain they are wrong, they are completely brainwashed.
 
Baby of Macon said:
Back to the main topic - the time to buy stuff from the UK in the event of BREXIT will be in the immediate aftermath of the vote because Sterling will tank but the UK will still be a member of the EU.
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I agree. Question is, if the Pound tanks, how quickly will UK prices go up to compensate? Could be you'll have to buy very quickly to take advantage of the delay before adjustments kick in.

Raid: as for where to get the money... just add it to personal debt via CCs, line of credit, etc. 🙂 Play now, pay later!
 
I'm always baffled when economists are blamed for the current state of affairs as most of the decisions seem, to me at least, to be made by politicians either with an axe to grind or favours to repay...

Regards, David
 
rscheffler said:
I agree. Question is, if the Pound tanks, how quickly will UK prices go up to compensate? Could be you'll have to buy very quickly to take advantage of the delay before adjustments kick in.

Raid: as for where to get the money... just add it to personal debt via CCs, line of credit, etc. 🙂 Play now, pay later!
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Still with customs all the advantages of buying in the UK for an European will evaporate quickly.

Last week I bought a lens from Russia, when it arrived here they charged me 20% of VAT (fair enough) plus £20 for HANDLING, so in the end they wanted to make me pay more money in customs than the actual value of the lens...I assume it will become more common for British and Europeans in case of Brexit.
 
One of the likely outcomes of the UK staying in, is stronger integration of the UK within Europe, and common evolution into the future, wheather you like it or not.
One of the likely outcomes of the UK staying out, is stronger integraition of the UK within India, and common evolution into the future, possibly in conflict with China, EU, and the US, wheather you like it or not.
Feel free to choose.
 
Gid said:
It may be worth noting that these same economists and business leaders etc prophesised a similar level of doom at the prospect of the UK not joining the Euro. They were wrong (really very badly wrong) then so why should they be trusted now? There is very little merit in many of the economic claims being made by either side. If you believe differently then perhaps digging a little deeper into the facts might prove enlightening. Your assertion (however mild) that anyone who wants to leave the EU is anti European and the language you use to suggest this is well below the belt and in bad taste. There are, believe it or not, some people who will base their decision on the few grains of truth they can glean from the often spurious arguments, not hyperbole.
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What on earth makes you think you have any more knowledge of the facts than I? I can only imagine it is because you disagree with me. I could equally well patronize you by telling you to "dig a little deeper into the facts".

Cheers,

R.
 
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