Camera Speculators

[sooner]

I was picking up some film yesterday from my local pro lab, and I heard these two guys talking next to me. One was telling the other about how he had purchased a couple of Nikon S3 rangefinders as an investment. He used the word 'rangefinder' like he was describing some Asian silkworm. He then began comparing them to old sports cars that were garaged and pulled out for sale at huge profits. I suppose the guy was a photographer, but clearly he bought these cameras for financial speculation.

This interests me because I noticed the price of used Fuji medium format cameras jump all of a sudden a while back, and I doubt it's because suddenly a bunch more photographers woke up and realized these were nice cameras. This is also an interesting factor when we talk about production numbers and per camera cost of the GF670, the new folder from Fuji. If you build too few and price it too high, then a big part of your market is speculators, and how does that distort the market and perhaps even suppress the market for regular photographers? Your thoughts welcome.....John/sooner.

 

[jfretless]

Things that are made in limited numbers to attract collectors/investors usually are not highly sought after, both at present and future.

I've collected things all my life from cars to action figures to bikes to cameras... in all cases, the most sought after items in each genre are the items produced before the "explosion" of popularity. ...which usually means before super mass production, which equals; better quality and lower production numbers (due to demand) also less speculators, so most of items were used and then eventually tossed out or destroyed from wear and tear.

I don't know if that answers your question, but that's my take.

 

[Sonnar Brian]

Unless they picked them up for ~$300 each, they are not going to get much ROI.

The fun of collecting is to find the jewel in a junkshop, and getting a good price because you recognize it in the rough. Being able to do your own repair, or have them done at a reasonable price, also makes it "cost-effective". As others have learned here, you cannot buy a camera at "Ebay Prices", invest in a professional CLA, and get your money back out of it.

Now, when I clicked the BIN button on the $200 Canon 50/f0.95 RF lens in near mint, I thought to myself:

a) My wife will shoot me for spending $200 on yet another lens;
b) I've always wanted one of these;
c) It can't be worse than a coke bottle;
d) what a great investment.

The Answer is "a".

 

[sooner]

I don't look at it so much in terms of value for money in the present tense, more like these guys think they are buying an unopened 1978 Star Wars action figure for the purpose of stashing it in a closet for 20 years. In other words, buy it not to take pictures but because it will be worth tons more in a few years.

 

[Sonnar Brian]

Better to buy Comic Books and stash them. My #1 and #2 Star Trek Comic Books are in great condition and only cost me $0.12 each. I saw the pair sell for $7,000 on Ebay. I'm thinking that New Star Trek movie next year...

But I bought them to read. Glad Mom did not throw them out when I went to College.

 

[jfretless]

excluding inflation, a 1978 MOC (mint on card) Star Wars action figure doesn't have a lot of room to appreciate.

since i can't draw a graph...

the natural progression of secondary market value looks something like this...

HOT - when it first hits the market, short supply and hype drives the price up.
After the positive hype starts to die, there is a moderatly quick descent in demand and price. ...Mainly due to it's not hot anymore, there's something else that is hot.

After a few to several years, the trend starts to edge up. Two driving factors, the ones that could not afford the item when it was new now have the buying power... "I've always wanted." ...and also, the people who did have those when it first came out, no longer have them for whatever reason, tossed out or lost or gave away... Now want it back to relive the good times...'they don't make them like they used to..." crowd.

After many years of sustained growth or holding steady, the price starts to fad again as the group of interested party deminished due to age, or just plain death. Younger fans have items they are into...

Everyone can appreciate 1957 chevy bel air, but you can't make a 20 something year old want to buy one. twenty somethings have 70's and 80's camaros and mustangs 5.0s to want. ...or worse yet honda and acuras. We like what we grew up with, plain and simple.

In high school, any muscle car younger that 1971 was junk... nobody will want those... but as I got older, i noticed the younger the cars got.

collect things because you enjoy having them and used them... if you can get you money back out of it... even better.

John

 

[sooner]

Well put, John. What I didn't describe in my initial post was how frustrated I felt listening to this guy, because I partly blame guys like him for making the cameras I want more expensive than a) they "should" cost, and b) more expensive than I can afford. And I agree as an investor it's a very risky strategy; there are plenty of beautiful old cameras that you can't give away. For every Star Wars action figure that sells for big money, there are a bunch of figures from other movies of the era that get burned by pyro tweens practicing torture for play. Hey, we've all done it, right?

 

[M. Valdemar]

I've always bought things that really interested me, and usually years later I realize they're worth money.

Now how about those nine or ten COMPLETE sets of mint Mars Attack cards I bought as a kid? I still have 'em, with the check cards.

I really liked "Destroying a Dog".

 

[Al Patterson]

Well put, John. What I didn't describe in my initial post was how frustrated I felt listening to this guy, because I partly blame guys like him for making the cameras I want more expensive than a) they "should" cost, and b) more expensive than I can afford. And I agree as an investor it's a very risky strategy; there are plenty of beautiful old cameras that you can't give away. For every Star Wars action figure that sells for big money, there are a bunch of figures from other movies of the era that get burned by pyro tweens practicing torture for play. Hey, we've all done it, right?

Well, all my 1960's era Marvel comics ended up in a landfill anyway. I could buy an M8 with what they would be worth today. I don't "collect" per se, except for some US coins with silver content, but if a camera I buy this year for $20 ends up worth $100 at some point, I won't be crying in my beer...

 

[jfretless]

For every Star Wars action figure that sells for big money, there are a bunch of figures from other movies of the era that get burned by pyro tweens practicing torture for play. Hey, we've all done it, right?

Ahh... Good times, right there.

 

[Roger Hicks]

Everyone can appreciate 1957 chevy bel air, but you can't make a 20 something year old want to buy one. twenty somethings have 70's and 80's camaros and mustangs 5.0s to want. ...or worse yet honda and acuras. We like what we grew up with, plain and simple.

Dear John,

I don't actually agree with any of that para. I've never seen the point in heavy, ill-handling Ametican cars of the 50s but at school and at university in the late 60s/early 70s my friends and I drove TRs, XKs, MGs, Big Healeys etc. from the 50s and earlier. I remember tearing up the cheque I'd just written for a '36 MG TA because I was worried that the head mught be distorted. The cheque was for £235 -- about $350 at the time. Put two zeros on the end today.

And in the early 50s my father always fancied (but could never afford) a Speed Six Bentley. They were pretty much constant at £125, at that time about $400. Put three zeros on the end today...

People who appreciate top-quality (and usually rare) engineering have always driven the collector market in certain areas (not comix and Star Wars figures, obviously). The esteem in which a product is held is set by those who understand it; the price is then set by those who can afford it.

The latter then start looking for stuff from the same maker that is rare, but not necessarily useful -- which is how I was able to swap the tri-lens turret on the cover of my A History of the 35mm Still Camera, bought for £100, for a new 90/2 Summicron worth several times as much. Not so much blind luck, as Fred describes it, as knowing what the collectors wanted and I didn't. My black paint M3 (£200) turned into a new M4P by the same alchemy.

Cheers,

Roger

 

[Windscale]

I think there is nothing wrong with camera speculating. The whole thing is controlled by the so-called 'market' which consists of people who are taking risks with or without knowledge of cameras and those who are informed users. I don't blame those speculators for bringing up the prices of some gear I WANT. In the process they may also bring up the prices of some of the gear I HAVE. These speculators are also taking a lot of risks for not all the gear they bought will go up. Many will even go down. I am not a speculator. I am a user. I tried not to keep too many cameras although I do have a few. For the past few years I tended to adopt a buy one / sell one policy as I only have two hands and one finger to press the shutter button. Sometimes I bought a camera, have it CLAed if necessary, and sell it just because I wanted to try out that model. Sometimes I would make a small profit but sometimes I sell below costs. The fun is to have used something which I have always wanted to try out. Once the mystery behind the question mark is gone, the camera will probably be sold unless I could find a good reason to keep it, that is, it is better than one I already have. In this case that other one will ended being sold. I have also found that some less well known cameras produced very good results, beating some very famous names. I am glad the speculators have not got to these models. I don't mind them getting to them soon as I already own them.