Skiff
Well-known
Today the December data and so of course the complete digital camera sales data for 2014 has been published by the CIPA:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html
2014 was again another horror year for the digital camera manufacturers:
Total shipments decreased by - 30.9%.
Again about another 1/3 of the market is gone.
Sales continue being in free fall.
The manufacturers (and the distributors of course as well) are now thrown back far behind the sales level of 2003 (!!):
In 2003 about the same volume of digital cameras were sold.
But at that time the industry still sold 18,5 million film based cameras in addition, too.
In 2014 millions of film based cameras were bought - on the used market.
Because of the very attractive price level and because most manufacturers don't offer new film cameras (so customers are forced to buy used instead of new).
Leica is seeing a chance here and has introduced another film camera last Photokina. They reported increasing demand for their film cameras.
And there has been Photokina reports from Nikon and Canon, that they are thinking about / discussing new film cameras. Looking for profitable niches. Interesting to see whether they or others will go this route in the next years.
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html
2014 was again another horror year for the digital camera manufacturers:
Total shipments decreased by - 30.9%.
Again about another 1/3 of the market is gone.
Sales continue being in free fall.
The manufacturers (and the distributors of course as well) are now thrown back far behind the sales level of 2003 (!!):
In 2003 about the same volume of digital cameras were sold.
But at that time the industry still sold 18,5 million film based cameras in addition, too.
In 2014 millions of film based cameras were bought - on the used market.
Because of the very attractive price level and because most manufacturers don't offer new film cameras (so customers are forced to buy used instead of new).
Leica is seeing a chance here and has introduced another film camera last Photokina. They reported increasing demand for their film cameras.
And there has been Photokina reports from Nikon and Canon, that they are thinking about / discussing new film cameras. Looking for profitable niches. Interesting to see whether they or others will go this route in the next years.
I'm all for new film cameras, but there has to be a lot more film produced if it'll work. I mean quality color film keeps dwindling from what I can tell (especially slide film). Also, a lot more quality labs will have to pop up again in local small towns, not just in big cities. The average joe will not be mailing their film out for processing.
Leica producing a new film camera can hardly be seen as news that film cameras are making a come back. Leica will always have a film camera to sell as long as there is film. It's part of its mystic and history.
Hsg
who dares wins
They're calling it an E.L.E event for camera makers, extinction level event.
http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/panic-is-setting-in.html
http://www.dslrbodies.com/newsviews/panic-is-setting-in.html
Skiff
Well-known
For the last 1,5 years the number of color film types has been stable.
New color films from Film Ferrania will hit the market (and probably also further from Inoviscoat, who are already making two films for Lomography).
Color film had surpassed BW film as major film type at the end of the 60ies / early 70ies.
At that time much less different color films were offered compared to today. Nevertheless the sales increased enormousley.
For a film revival we currently have enough different films.
And when the sales are increasing again, more new films will come.
The average joe is buying lots of stuff online with shipping via mail, including digital cameras, memory cards and also film.
There is no reason why he should refuse using the same system for film processing.
Mail order labs:
In most cases it is even cheaper and much more convenient than using the local mini-lab. Because if you use the local mini-lab you have costs for fuel (going by car), parking fees, bus tickets and so on, and going to your local lab always costs time (time = money = opportunity costs).
Costs for mail ordering are often much less.
The success of modern mail-order labs, even in the US, their increasing number, is proofing that this business model is working.
Just some examples from the US:
https://www.facebook.com/pages/North-Coast-Photographics/172280421530?ref=ts
https://www.facebook.com/thedarkroomlab
https://www.facebook.com/RichardPhotoLab
http://www.bhphotovideo.com/c/buy/Film-Accessories/ci/324/N/4093113316
https://www.facebook.com/indiefilmlab
https://www.facebook.com/filmboxlab
https://www.facebook.com/OldSchoolPhotoLab
https://www.facebook.com/littlefilmlab
https://www.facebook.com/bluemooncamera
https://www.facebook.com/theFINDlab
And in some countries there are excellent film lab infrastructures. E.G. in Germany: There are offering all drugstore chains film and developing with prints (C41, E6, BW). You can get your films developed at "every corner of the street".
And of course lots of professional labs with mail order service are there, too.
Fact is:
The lab capacity is there for a film revival. It is more than sufficient.
And with new lab machines like the Jobo CPP3 it is extremely easy that new small labs can start a business, too.
And home development of films is today much more easy than it has ever been, for BW, C41 and E6.
That is not the main point. Leica introduced the M-A because they have already seen a new interest and increasing demand for their MP and M7.
Nice film-centric viewpoint... however, Canon and Nikon are not going to get back into manufacturing and developing new film cameras just for a small niche. They are mainstream camera companies. Everything you describe above is stuff that those that are into photography will be ok with doing (but not the average joe).
Ko.Fe.
Lenses 35/21 Gears 46/20
Year ago I saw new EOS-something for $$$$ at B&H, while I was able to buy like new EOS 3 for hundred dollars. Makes no sense to buy new.
Digital cameras market came to what film camera market came.
Where are some basic mechanical film cameras which are going to work for another decade(s). What is the point of buying new overpriced Canonikon if it is going to be plasticy, overloaded with electronics and not cost effective, while we have many working ones at the used market ?
Same came to digital. Plenty of well build cameras, which will be capable for trouble free years in advanced photography. New one brings only incremental, slight improvements.
Leica film cameras is different story. They are cult and they are build exactly the same as they were built decades ago. No plastic crap and girly soap shapes on top of it, like most modern film cameras are.
Leica keeps their craftsmanship, FujiCanoNikons are more into cheap to make electronics, their mechanical manufacturing capabilities required for film cameras might be gone, I'm afraid. But Cosina will cover them all
Digital cameras market came to what film camera market came.
Where are some basic mechanical film cameras which are going to work for another decade(s). What is the point of buying new overpriced Canonikon if it is going to be plasticy, overloaded with electronics and not cost effective, while we have many working ones at the used market ?
Same came to digital. Plenty of well build cameras, which will be capable for trouble free years in advanced photography. New one brings only incremental, slight improvements.
Leica film cameras is different story. They are cult and they are build exactly the same as they were built decades ago. No plastic crap and girly soap shapes on top of it, like most modern film cameras are.
Leica keeps their craftsmanship, FujiCanoNikons are more into cheap to make electronics, their mechanical manufacturing capabilities required for film cameras might be gone, I'm afraid. But Cosina will cover them all
Skiff
Well-known
No, just market facts.
Both Canon and Nikon are already making small niches products for years.
E.g. Canon 1 Dx and Nikon D4s (and their forerunners).
These extremely expensive cameras are produced in tiny volumes compared to other DSLR models.
The demand for these cameras is negligible compared to the others in the line.
Nevertheless they are produced.
Nikon is making the F6 for more than 10 years now. Also a niche product.
Their FM10 is even longer in production (made by Cosina for Nikon).
When now or in the near future the demand for such film cameras is increasing, it makes sense to add further models to the line.
Especially as the sales for digital cameras are in a free fall.
I bet in 2 - 4 years we will have new film cameras on the market.
These are left over products from before... they just kept them in production.
While I'm skeptical that it'll be Nikon or Canon doing it, I wouldn't mind being wrong.
jschrader
Well-known
Digital:
I assume nobody replaces a functioning digital camera these days with a newer one because the progress is not relevant any more. That was still different some years ago; if you had a camera some more years old then, it was actually poor by current standards.
That is over now. If this assumption was true, we should see the digital camera market flatting out to a replacement level; they will only sell to replace damaged cameras.
Analog:
I do not think anyone will produce a new analog camera. The new Leica film cameras are more or less the same old design with some superficial changes. There are simply too many good second hand cameras around. Actually, nobody needs to buy one. Ask around in the family or neighbourhood. In every second house, there is a used Nikon or Canon or Pentax on the shelf.
I assume nobody replaces a functioning digital camera these days with a newer one because the progress is not relevant any more. That was still different some years ago; if you had a camera some more years old then, it was actually poor by current standards.
That is over now. If this assumption was true, we should see the digital camera market flatting out to a replacement level; they will only sell to replace damaged cameras.
Analog:
I do not think anyone will produce a new analog camera. The new Leica film cameras are more or less the same old design with some superficial changes. There are simply too many good second hand cameras around. Actually, nobody needs to buy one. Ask around in the family or neighbourhood. In every second house, there is a used Nikon or Canon or Pentax on the shelf.
Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Everything old is new again.
The problem is there is far little staying power.
At least once a week I see someone walking around with a Hasselblad. I often will initiate a discussion with the usually young adult who has only very recently purchased their 501C with a lens and a couple A12 backs, for peanuts. This is a kit I fantasized about fifteen years ago but couldn't afford. Now I could buy the same gear for less than 10% of retail.
Of course people are going to try out such a kit. We have the benefit of having a fantastic pro development lab here in Philly, so the "staying power" of shooting film is probably a little better than many other cities. Perhaps the new Hassy shooter will keep their camera longer, who knows?
On the digital side, we've reached the "Ford Model T saturation point." People have digital cameras that are as good as they need and usually better so there is no reason to "upgrade." I, for one, have no reason to upgrade my Nikon D3 and if I do, I certainly won't be buying new. I've thought about getting a Df but after playing with one for a bit, I liked the grip of my D3 better. Other than that fleeting notion, the only other digital cameras I'd like to get would be a D2Hs and a D2X to replace the ones which were stolen back in March, 2013. I'd convert the D2X to infrared also.
Phil Forrest
The problem is there is far little staying power.
At least once a week I see someone walking around with a Hasselblad. I often will initiate a discussion with the usually young adult who has only very recently purchased their 501C with a lens and a couple A12 backs, for peanuts. This is a kit I fantasized about fifteen years ago but couldn't afford. Now I could buy the same gear for less than 10% of retail.
Of course people are going to try out such a kit. We have the benefit of having a fantastic pro development lab here in Philly, so the "staying power" of shooting film is probably a little better than many other cities. Perhaps the new Hassy shooter will keep their camera longer, who knows?
On the digital side, we've reached the "Ford Model T saturation point." People have digital cameras that are as good as they need and usually better so there is no reason to "upgrade." I, for one, have no reason to upgrade my Nikon D3 and if I do, I certainly won't be buying new. I've thought about getting a Df but after playing with one for a bit, I liked the grip of my D3 better. Other than that fleeting notion, the only other digital cameras I'd like to get would be a D2Hs and a D2X to replace the ones which were stolen back in March, 2013. I'd convert the D2X to infrared also.
Phil Forrest
Met an asian girl in Edinburgh, she wore a Canon A-E1 and I asked her about the camera. It turned out that the camera had no film in it, it was just an accessory
I've heard people say this about Leica users and I always assumed that it was BS. I can't believe anyone would want to wear a camera as a necklace if they didn't have to. Now I guess I have to believe.
Pioneer
Veteran
Smartphone sales are going through the roof.
Digital camera sales are dropping like a rock.
Film sales (not film camera sales) are leveling off or improving slightly.
Two guesses on where the digital camera buyers are going.
Leica was able to initiate a miniature camera revolution back in the 30s based on "good enough" image quality and improved convenience.
Believe it or not, there are a whole lot of people out there who are not interested in megapixels and RAW. They just want to be able to show grandma a reasonably decent picture as quickly as they can. And for goodness sake, they certainly aren't interested in spending several weeks of their lives (which equates to a lifetime for them btw) learning how to use Lightroom and/or Photoshop.
Digital camera sales are dropping like a rock.
Film sales (not film camera sales) are leveling off or improving slightly.
Two guesses on where the digital camera buyers are going.
Leica was able to initiate a miniature camera revolution back in the 30s based on "good enough" image quality and improved convenience.
Believe it or not, there are a whole lot of people out there who are not interested in megapixels and RAW. They just want to be able to show grandma a reasonably decent picture as quickly as they can. And for goodness sake, they certainly aren't interested in spending several weeks of their lives (which equates to a lifetime for them btw) learning how to use Lightroom and/or Photoshop.
Ko.Fe.
Lenses 35/21 Gears 46/20
I had close case with my family FED-2 at steampunk booth during local steam era show in 2014. The steampunked lady was lusting after my FED-2 leather case. She has mentioned twice it is nice thing to wear it.
daveleo
what?
There's really no surprise in this new data. The dedicated digital camera trend continues downward.
Okay . . . so who was blindsided by this piece of information? Probably no one.
The mass market wants instant-upload web-quality snaps and that WiFi cellphone is perfect. No news here.
The used market is overloaded with perfectly useable film and digital gear. No news here.
Okay . . . so who was blindsided by this piece of information? Probably no one.
The mass market wants instant-upload web-quality snaps and that WiFi cellphone is perfect. No news here.
The used market is overloaded with perfectly useable film and digital gear. No news here.
iamzip
Ambitious, but rubbish
Just anecdotal, but I hardly see anyone with compact cameras anymore. All the places I go where people are taking pictures of their kids, it's either cell phone or dSLR.
Hsg
who dares wins
Even if you buy the upcoming 50mp camera, you're going to resize and compress the image to the same level as the in-camera jpgs of your phone, in order to upload it online, so what's the point of upgrading?
Until camera makers have not found an answer to that question, they're going to continue sliding towards the oblivion.
Until camera makers have not found an answer to that question, they're going to continue sliding towards the oblivion.
Ranchu
Veteran
...oblivion....oblivion...oblivion...
VertovSvilova
Well-known
What you mention here I think sheds light on part of the issue. When digital first came out, people were fascinated by this new technology and started to replace their film cameras. Lots of digital cameras were purchased and a whole new market appeared for the industry. Everybody started buying digital point and shoots and/or replacing their film cameras with DSLRs. But the technology wasn't perfect and there was quick advances in the tech and people would not hesitate to keep upgrading as image quality and functionality improved. Then video was added to digital still cameras and sales in video cameras dropped while DSLRs kept selling. Then cell phones got really good for stills (and basic video) and point and shoot sales dropped.
The industry is looking back at those days and now seeing a flat market in comparison to the 'boom days' of digital. It's like a bubble in any market. They're longing for those days which won't ever return. I think sort of the same kind of thing happened when 35mm film was first used in a consumer film camera. That brought on a big boom in small camera manufacturing but which eventually leveled out (with some players disappearing altogether.) And then the industry came up with the Advanced Photo System (APS; aka Advantix, Nexia, Futura, Centuria) to try to re-ignite the 35mm consumer film market which had flattened out. And now the industry is trying all sorts of things to increase digital sales (e.g., constantly releasing new models of mirrorless hoping something will stick to the wall; we have all kinds of mirrorless choices now with equal IQ, just like when we had all kinds of 35mm film cameras to choose from.)
Right now the industry seems to be going through the 'bubble has burst' phase. It will all readjust but there won't be anymore of the old days of early digital era sales.
KM-25
Well-known
I had a lunch over the weekend with my gallery owner, another fine art shooter and two professors at our local college. One professor teaches a PJ class that he wants me to do presentation at and the other teaches the darkroom class. The latter is especially of interest to me since they had shuttered the darkroom offering a couple years ago. Basically, interest in shooting and printing black and white film has shot through the roof and not as some kind of fad either, there is a waiting list to get the classes.
And the funny thing too was that everyone at the lunch table except the gallery owner had a film camera on them. Now, about the gallery…they are literally getting requests for hand crafted black and white prints where as digital varieties are moving about the same pace as they have for the past 3-4 years, steady but nothing crazy. I’m hanging some 20” prints in a week, the silver gelatin will be priced 3x as high as the color ones derived from a scan, pretty much SOP.
Now film cameras….among other formats and makes, I own and use a fairly complete modern Hasselblad system, 3 bodies ( 2 x 501CM, 500ELX ), 12 modern backs and 8 CF lenses. So this friend of mine who was at the lunch with us wants a basic 500CM / 80 CF / A12 back. I thought oh that is easy, they are a dime a dozen!
Not!
I can not believe how good clean 500CM and newer bodies have dried up, whoa man! The two 501CM’s I paid $450 and $480 for in new condition 3-4 years ago are now way, way up there in price. You used to be able to find good 500CM kits with an Acute Matte screen for less than a grand all day long, even as low as $650 with a modern CF 80 and regular screen. Now KEH is like a desert, eBay is just silly with kits fetching $1,200++ if you can even find them. A12 backs are going up in price a bit too but good modern CF lenses for now are holding steady and have not really changed much over the past 4 years.
So yeah, lots of film stuff is out there to be had, but the better stuff, the gear you want for all kinds of reasons inducing parts still being on the shelves….I think it is starting to become a sellers market, demand is steadily rising, no new stuff being made and prices are quite possibly rising over all.
Glad I built my Hassy system when it was all at an all time low....I think those days are gone!
And the funny thing too was that everyone at the lunch table except the gallery owner had a film camera on them. Now, about the gallery…they are literally getting requests for hand crafted black and white prints where as digital varieties are moving about the same pace as they have for the past 3-4 years, steady but nothing crazy. I’m hanging some 20” prints in a week, the silver gelatin will be priced 3x as high as the color ones derived from a scan, pretty much SOP.
Now film cameras….among other formats and makes, I own and use a fairly complete modern Hasselblad system, 3 bodies ( 2 x 501CM, 500ELX ), 12 modern backs and 8 CF lenses. So this friend of mine who was at the lunch with us wants a basic 500CM / 80 CF / A12 back. I thought oh that is easy, they are a dime a dozen!
Not!
I can not believe how good clean 500CM and newer bodies have dried up, whoa man! The two 501CM’s I paid $450 and $480 for in new condition 3-4 years ago are now way, way up there in price. You used to be able to find good 500CM kits with an Acute Matte screen for less than a grand all day long, even as low as $650 with a modern CF 80 and regular screen. Now KEH is like a desert, eBay is just silly with kits fetching $1,200++ if you can even find them. A12 backs are going up in price a bit too but good modern CF lenses for now are holding steady and have not really changed much over the past 4 years.
So yeah, lots of film stuff is out there to be had, but the better stuff, the gear you want for all kinds of reasons inducing parts still being on the shelves….I think it is starting to become a sellers market, demand is steadily rising, no new stuff being made and prices are quite possibly rising over all.
Glad I built my Hassy system when it was all at an all time low....I think those days are gone!
Skiff
Well-known
And why were they kept in production?
Because there is demand for them.
Because it is profitable for Nikon making them.
Nice to hear
.Seriously: At last Photokina Nikon and Canon said they are discussing it, they are seriously thinking about it.
Whether they will do it or not, we'll see.
It takes time to design a new camera. So my assessment is the earliest time point could be Photokina 2016.
But I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a bit more time.
Other manufacturers which come to mind:
Cosina / Voigtländer, Leica, Hasselblad (their current model takes film backs again; Hasselblad did that because their customers asked for it), DHW (Rolleiflex), Mamiya.