CIPA data for 2020: Digital Camera Sales Collapse accelerated

[Skiff]

The CIPA data for digital camera sales in 2020 is out:
http://cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html

The strong decline we see since 2010 (compact cameras) and 2012 (ILC cameras) has significantly accelerated in 2020. Partly because of Covid, but mainly because the reasons for the long year decline are more valid than ever (market oversaturation, too expensive cameras which focus on too much "bells and whistles" and gimmicks which no one really needs, smartphone competition).

With only 8.7 mio. cameras in total we just see another / the next all-time low for cameras sales, just as in the last years.
Camera sales are now just about 20% of the volume the industry has had at film times before digital imaging.

The downward trend will continue for another 3-4 years, and then maybe we'll see a stabilization in the 5 - 5.5 million range.
Just for comparison:
Fujifilm has sold 10.5 million instax instant film cameras in their 2018/2019 fiscal year.

Several big manufacturers had already pulled the plug for their digital camera production in the last decade: Kodak, Epson, Casio, Samsung.
Olympus has de facto pulled the plug with the sale of its camera business to JIP. For the Olympus fans I hope that JIP can continue, but I would not bet on it, as Olympus' camera division made losses in 9 of the last 10 years.

I would not bet on Sony, either. In some years the digital camera market will be a niche market, and Sony has in the past in most cases left a market when it had become too small for them.
Also Sony's 'cash cow' has been FF mirrorless in the last years, mainly because they had that market alone for themselves for about five years. But meanwhile they have very strong competition from Canon, Nikon, Panasonic and Leica. And their market share in that segment has shrunk by more than 35% in just the last two years.

 

[willie_901]

And, these data are shipments, not necessarily sales.😱

 

[markjwyatt]

And, these data are shipments, not necessarily sales.😱

Keep an eye out for sales... 😎

 

[benlees]

Just seems like a market correction in the world of cell phone domination, action cameras, and the advent of video bloggers; and made worse by world events. When markets change/correct companies disappear. Name a multinational saddle company!

 

[markjwyatt]

Just seems like a market correction in the world of cell phone domination, action cameras, and the advent of video bloggers; and made worse by world events. When markets change/correct companies disappear. Name a multinational saddle company!

Name a multinational quality film camera company (maybe Nikon and Leica, but even they have pretty much stopped). Instant cameras are an exception.

 

[benlees]

Name a multinational quality film camera company (maybe Nikon and Leica, but even they have pretty much stopped). Instant cameras are an exception.

I should have said a multinational that makes saddles.😀 Leica and Nikon make lots of things besides cameras. But not saddles. I think.

 

[zuiko85]

As long as I can buy/hoard photo paper I’ll have a way to make images. Just about finished a 5x8 inch (8x10 paper cut in half) curved image pinhole, out of hobby plywood. With a 90 degree FoV across the 8 inch dimension. Isolation can have its advantages.

 

[jarski]

am thinking Sony to be in good position, as they are making sensors for several camera makers, as well as phone manufacturers (including for their own phones).

 

[Nitroplait]

That is the CIPA view.
You could also say there has been sold more cameras in the past years than ever before in history and that the interest in photography is higher than ever.

Smartphones delivers excellent photographic results and the RD budgets put into improving smartphone cameras dwarfs the budgets used by the traditional CIPA companies.

The dynamic market for photo related smartphone accessories supports the notion that smartphone users cares about photography; phone tripods, lighting solutions, add on lenses, gimbals etc.

If only looking at the stand-alone camera production, we are ignoring the paradigm shift 10+ years ago that accelerated the interest in photography, and not least camera sales - just in another form from what most CIPA members are producing.

 

[Skiff]

And, these data are shipments, not necessarily sales.😱

Yeah, that is right. CIPA data is production numbers and shipment numbers.
But not sales numbers.

But will it take more than 12 months to sell the shipped volume?
I don't think so, at least not for the majority of models.
Maybe for some of the more unpopular models it may take 2-3 years until they are sold, in the end then with discounts.
But afaik there is no reliable data publicly available about theses "selling rates / times spans" in the retail channels.

 

[Skiff]

am thinking Sony to be in good position, as they are making sensors for several camera makers, as well as phone manufacturers (including for their own phones).

The sensor manufacturing is Sony semiconductor. That is a completely different and separated business division than their camera division.
I have talked about the camera division, which is facing the strong decline in the mirrorless market much more brutally now because of the strongly increasing competition.
In only two years Canon and Nikon developed mirrorless cameras which are even now already better in numerous parameters than the Sonys. For example Sony designed their E mount originally as a mount for APS-C, with a relatively small diameter. Just some years later after introduction of the E mount they also offered full frame. But it is a kind of limited in this small mount. But Canon and Nikon did it right with their new mirrorless mounts, big enough diameter for all applications, optimal flange distance.

By the way, most of the camera manufacturers have their own sensor designers. They make the design in-house, and the production is outsourced. Outsourced to - for example - Sony semiconductor. Just in the last days Thom Hogan has again published an interesting article about that.

 

[Skiff]

The dynamic market for photo related smartphone accessories supports the notion that smartphone users cares about photography; phone tripods, lighting solutions, add on lenses, gimbals etc.

Really?
How many smartphone users do you know who are doing photography as an enthusiast hobby and are using only the smartphone?
I don't know anyone doing that. All smartphone users I know who are taking photos with their smartphones are snapshooters. None of them would say that photography is a serious hobby for them.

 

[Out to Lunch]

The lifestyle of my teenaged daughter and her circle of friends depends in large part on the smartphone: education; time management; banking; social life; transportation, consumption, etc... To them, a digital camera is a relic of the past.

Just wait for 5G to come online. You ain't seen nothing yet.

Cheers, OtL

 

[jsrockit]

More doom and gloom from our friend Skiff? I can’t believe he would post anti-digital news! 🙂

 

[Skiff]

More doom and gloom from our friend Skiff? I can’t believe he would post anti-digital news! 🙂

???
This isn't "anti-digital" at all. I am using digital and film. And I want the camera manufacturers to survive.
But the reality is as it is. And to ignore the facts makes it worse, not better.
Adopting to the changing market situation is the better strategy compared to ignorance.

 

[css9450]

All smartphone users I know who are taking photos with their smartphones are snapshooters. None of them would say that photography is a serious hobby for them.

There are smartphone users you haven't met yet, though; serious photographers who have made their phone their primary (if not only) camera. Who was it - Apple I think? - that was running a contest looking for the very best smartphone photos? It was discussed here on the forum.

We also need to consider all those "snapshooters" vastly outnumber serious photographers or hobbyists by a vast margin. And most smartphone users are lulled into the cycle of upgrading to the newest models as soon as they come out, despite existing market oversaturation and too many bells and whistles and gimmicks on the new models. THAT's what is eating away at traditional digital camera sales.

 

[jsrockit]

???
This isn't "anti-digital" at all. I am using digital and film. And I want the camera manufacturers to survive.
But the reality is as it is. And to ignore the facts makes it worse, not better.
Adopting to the changing market situation is the better strategy compared to ignorance.

I was just having a little fun. I appreciate the info because I don’t see it other places.

 

[Skiff]

I was just having a little fun. I appreciate the info because I don’t see it other places.

O.k., accepted. No problem 🙂.

 

[p.giannakis]

I am posting an old article here but i think it puts into perspective the sale volume throughout the decades.

https://petapixel.com/2015/04/09/th...a-sales-looks-like-with-smartphones-included/

 

[Skiff]

And most smartphone users are lulled into the cycle of upgrading to the newest models as soon as they come out, despite existing market oversaturation and too many bells and whistles and gimmicks on the new models. THAT's what is eating away at traditional digital camera sales.

Well, that is eating away
- the digital compact camera (fixed lens) market
- and in an increasing way the entry-level ILC market.

The mid-range and top-end ILC market is suffering by
- market oversaturation; almost all enthusiasts have at least one, often even several excellent cameras

- the "last camera syndrome": For many years cameras are so good that they are surpassing the skills of the photographers by a big margin; therefore the majority of photographers has realized that they simply don't need another new camera, and can save a lot of money by not buying another one

- the used market is becoming more and more attractive because of a huge supply of attractive options; manufacturers are loosing many customers to the used market

- lots of new cameras have become very expensive, and offering just some more "bells and whistles" no one really needs (8k video, 20/30 fps etc.). Consumers refuse to buy expensive features they simply don't need.