"Demand for film cameras is greater than the production capacity" - Leica

[robert blu]

...

Perhaps you're putting your finger on the pulse here—"analog" photography (I can't stand that retrofitted term) on social media is often all about sharing pictures of gear (like the Duke and Duchess of Urbino paintings by Piero della Francesca—"we own this land behind us") and less about sharing photography, perhaps because photography itself is completely ubiquitous after cellphones and few people learn how to critically engage with any image. If the "success" of a photo (a dubious concept for social media) depends on how well it captured a gotcha moment, well, there's no real place to share photography then, is there?

I like the analogy With the Urbino Duke and Duchess...

And yes I agree with you when you say few people desire to learn how to critically engage with any image. I noticed this also in my circle of acquaintances.

The ease of digital makes everyone think to be a photographer, so what is more to learn? I shoot, publish and get likes, wow 🙂 many are happy like this !

 

[blan01]

The price of film Ms has been rising, if you are looking at M2/3/4/5, then the price increase is not that bad, but for some reason the M6 price doubles every year. Not to mention the craziness of Xpan and those premium P&S.

I sold my xpan last year because I don’t use it as much and one day it could be an expensive break. My wife still has her Fuji Klasse S, but it’s a lot newer that those Contax P&Ss and she bought hers long time ago so the price is very reasonable.

On the other hand , the price of medium format stuff didn’t go up as much, which is funny, kids these days would pay 1k for a T2 while you can actually get a 500C/M or 3.5F for that kind of money.

 

[PRJ]

I just hope they don't raise prices again. The MP/ME are what set the ceiling for prices for all Leica film cameras, and the cameras associated with them. The reason why an M6 is so expensive today is because the MP is over 5 grand. Remember when an a la carte body was only around $2500? M6s were around a grand back then. Wish I would have bought an MP back then.

Film cameras are going to keep going up in price. That is the nature of markets. There won't be any more made probably. Supply is decreasing with most of them. Demand is increasing. Ain't rocket science.

 

[aizan]

I don’t agree, there’s no new film cameras besides the few leicas coming out. I can’t see the bubble bursting.

It's pretty straightforward:

- Film cameras are trending and the supply for classic cameras is limited, so prices are skyrocketing.
- The high prices will eventually become distasteful, and the backlash will begin, and the jadedness will set in (actually, this has already started).
- Gen Z will curb their enthusiasm and prices will fall.

 

[jsrockit]

I was shocked when I read that from Leica but then again the prices of Leicas have risen sharply. The thrift stores used to be filled with them now they are scooped up quickly when they appear which is very infrequently.

Filled with them?

 

[gavinlg]

It's pretty straightforward:

- Film cameras are trending and the supply for classic cameras is limited, so prices are skyrocketing.
- The high prices will eventually become distasteful, and the backlash will begin, and the jadedness will set in (actually, this has already started).
- Gen Z will curb their enthusiasm and prices will fall.

The error you're making is thinking that it's a passing trend, or some sort of whim. The same thing applies to things like air cooled 911's, old Rolex subs etc. Air cooled Porsches are never coming down in value.

 

[steveyork]

I just hope they don't raise prices again. The MP/ME are what set the ceiling for prices for all Leica film cameras, and the cameras associated with them. The reason why an M6 is so expensive today is because the MP is over 5 grand. Remember when an a la carte body was only around $2500? M6s were around a grand back then. Wish I would have bought an MP back then.

Film cameras are going to keep going up in price. That is the nature of markets. There won't be any more made probably. Supply is decreasing with most of them. Demand is increasing. Ain't rocket science.

I purchased the MP when it first came out in circa 2002 at the insane price of $2595 US. Way too expensive, but when I sold it, after ten years, I got all my money out of it. Don't know if that will continue, but with interest rates at or near zero, ha, ha, maybe Leica film cameras are an good investment, sort of.

Not all film cameras are going up .... only the cool, hip stuff.

 

[f.hayek]

It's pretty straightforward:

- Film cameras are trending and the supply for classic cameras is limited, so prices are skyrocketing.
- The high prices will eventually become distasteful, and the backlash will begin, and the jadedness will set in (actually, this has already started).
- Gen Z will curb their enthusiasm and prices will fall.

One problem with your theory is that aside from new product from Leica (and Lomo), any old film camera that becomes irreparable, will not be replaced. Even if demand stabilizes, supply will continue to fall.

 

[Peter Jennings]

Air cooled Porsches are never coming down in value.

And for this I will shed a tear. Always dreamed of having a 2.4L 911T.

 

[nickthetasmaniac]

It's pretty straightforward:

- Film cameras are trending and the supply for classic cameras is limited, so prices are skyrocketing.

True so far.

- The high prices will eventually become distasteful, and the backlash will begin, and the jadedness will set in (actually, this has already started).

Or... Popular models (particularly electronic ones) will continue to die because they're decades old, further shrinking supply, further increasing prices.

- Gen Z will curb their enthusiasm and prices will fall.

Or... Gen Z folk will get older, get better paying jobs, and have more money to spend on toys (that's what I did anyway 😀 )

 

[splitimageview]

And for this I will shed a tear. Always dreamed of having a 2.4L 911T.

I had a 2.4L 911E, many years ago, it was a '73 model. Great fun!

Have had a '98 for 17 years now, will have it forever.

 

[aizan]

If you want to compare Leicas specifically to collectibles like air cooled Porche's and Rolex Submariners, the important thing to remember is that they are very recent collectibles. Collectibles with longer histories prove that values can rise and fall, even if supply dwindles. It is always a matter of changing trends in taste.

In the near future, the market and supply for new cameras is growing, and that will accelerate the bubble's deflation.

 

[Godfrey]

Nowhere does this article articulate what the 'production capacity' per month of Leica M film bodies actually is. So while the fact that demand is running ahead of production at present is a good thing (for Leica), there's no way to judge what this "renaissance of film photography" actually means in terms of numbers of cameras and users.

This is Leica, after all, not Sony, and not a highly automated manufacturer of cameras. Their production might be 100 cameras a month, 1200 cameras a year. If more than 100 cameras a month are being ordered, this is good, but compared to even the smallest production of someone like Sony, this is a single digit percentage of the camera marketplace and likely even if it were sustained for five years, it wouldn't constitute enough demand in new cameras for film to resurrect anything like Kodak or Ilford film sales from the pre-digital era.

Interesting nonetheless. Some of us never did stop shooting film in the first place. 🙂

G

 

[Deleted member 65559]

Leica Film Cameras

Leica Film Cameras

Interesting nonetheless. Some of us never did stop shooting film in the first place. 🙂

G

Thanks for mentioning this Godfrey !

 

[noisycheese]

I wonder who are all these young people with several thousand dollars to spend on Leica film bodies? Even so, it's a good thing, as it keeps that arm of Leica in business, and maintains the supply of spare parts for longer.

They are the offspring of America's fabulous and wealthy.

As a resident of a town that is home to a major university, I see these children every day - never worked a day in their lives, not of legal drinking age - yet tooling around town in new Mercedes Benzes purchased for them by Daddy Megabucks.

 

[Pál_K]

Absolutely. Some person who had way more money than brains recently bought a Nikon L35AF, untested, for over $110 USD. I can barely give away cameras like this...

For a while there was a bit of internet forum and website chatter about the L35AF that I believe piqued people's interest and resulted in higher demand and prices - somewhat like the Olympus mu II (Stylus Epic), even though those have a high failure rate.

I learned about the L35AF via Rockwell, thought it would be cool for street shots, and found one at a camera show two years ago for only $20 - fully functional and it even had its huge instruction sheet. Oddly, the seller commented about it being a cult camera worth over $100 as he sold it to me for $20. Anyway, it's actually a very good camera and makes sharp photos.

If you want to compare Leicas specifically to collectibles like air cooled Porche's and Rolex Submariners, the important thing to remember is that they are very recent collectibles. Collectibles with longer histories prove that values can rise and fall, even if supply dwindles. It is always a matter of changing trends in taste.
...

Good point. However, of the three, perhaps mechanical watches just might be the creatures that survive.

With cars, I'm afraid of a future where combustion engines in passenger cars are forbidden. Or perhaps older cars which you can actually drive yourself are considered too dangerous - after all, they don't have the technology to automatically keep you in your lane, to apply the brake, watch for collisions, and to maintain the speed limit. Cars being designed today are more like appliances for appliance-users more interested in their phone than the experience of driving. I have two mid-engine sports cars with manual transmissions; one of them has no computer in it anywhere and has carburettors, neither of them has an interior that looks like an ipod. Who will want such a car in 20 years?

As for cameras, my worry continues to be whether there will be enough people buying film to continue with film production.

 

[gavinlg]

As for cameras, my worry continues to be whether there will be enough people buying film to continue with film production.

Kodak and Ilford have both reported film sales steadily increasing each year for the last 5 years. Shouldn't be a problem...

 

[CameraQuest]

I just hope they don't raise prices again. The MP/ME are what set the ceiling for prices for all Leica film cameras, and the cameras associated with them. The reason why an M6 is so expensive today is because the MP is over 5 grand. Remember when an a la carte body was only around $2500? M6s were around a grand back then. Wish I would have bought an MP back then.

Film cameras are going to keep going up in price. That is the nature of markets. There won't be any more made probably. Supply is decreasing with most of them. Demand is increasing. Ain't rocket science.

The Euro has dropped compared with the USD and yen.

I doubt another price increase is too far away.

 

[Corran]

"The bubble will burst."

I invite you to look at US house values/sales in 2008/2009 to now. You may notice that the trend line is still UP despite the temporary, if extreme, drop.

Meanwhile, my $700 Leica M6 purchased about 5 years ago will continue to be used, and I'm not worried about its value dropping over time much. The M9 though is gone, without a single regret.

 

[CameraQuest]

Nowhere does this article articulate what the 'production capacity' per month of Leica M film bodies actually is. So while the fact that demand is running ahead of production at present is a good thing (for Leica), there's no way to judge what this "renaissance of film photography" actually means in terms of numbers of cameras and users.

This is Leica, after all, not Sony, and not a highly automated manufacturer of cameras. Their production might be 100 cameras a month, 1200 cameras a year. If more than 100 cameras a month are being ordered, this is good, but compared to even the smallest production of someone like Sony, this is a single digit percentage of the camera marketplace and likely even if it were sustained for five years, it wouldn't constitute enough demand in new cameras for film to resurrect anything like Kodak or Ilford film sales from the pre-digital era.

Interesting nonetheless. Some of us never did stop shooting film in the first place. 🙂

G

BINGO, we have a winner.