sitemistic said:
So what do you do if you are Leica? You can't compete at the low or middle end with the Canon and Nikon Juggernauts, and your own sales tell you the limits of seiling in the high end rangefinder market.
I think you are left with trying to do what Lee was trying to do. Dress the pig up and put lipstick on it (metaphorically speaking, of course). But, it seems, even fewer people wearing Doc Martins are willing to buy $5,000 rangefinders then we gear heads.
Well they do seem rather boxed in. I noted earlier that they're doing all they can in the low-end market through their Panasonic relationship.
They don't have the capital or electronics expertise to go head-to-head with the big boys in the digital SLR market, even if they can hold a niche with a revamped R-system.
The high-end rangefinder market is a niche market only. An RD-1-alike lower-end body might gain them some "pull-through" to the M8 if they could hit the right price/quality trade-off, but I doubt it would justify the capital and R&D outlay and diversion.
Moving to medium-format (or larger, for that matter) doesn't fit their brand associations, and that ground is both rareified and occupied.
That doesn't seem to leave many options. I can only see two. One is to muddle along as they are doing. If they can survive doing that then, well, that's OK. If they can't survive like that, or if they want to do better than just OK then they have to go sideways, and escape the box by doing something nobody else is doing.
The only thing I can see there is a
new small-ish (so "35mm-like") non-reflex camera system. I say "system" because you need the sales of lenses, the system lock-in that provides and the moving up through the price points that allows. Something like Mike Johnston's DMD fixed-lens camera might be part of the solution (perhaps providing some short-term income, as well as being worth doing for its own sake) but can't be the answer in any long term. I say "new" because, well, the M8 shows the market limitations of sticking with the M as your only option.
The only way I can see that as possible is if they can produce a really, really,
really good viewfinder system that makes people want to adopt it. Something like we've never seen before. It can't be electronic because I don't think EVF technology is up to the mark yet, and Leica don't have the electronic nous to do it (AFAIK). Leica is supposed to be chock-full of brilliant optical engineers and designers. So perhaps they could come up with a new optical viewfinder system (coupled with an appropriate AF system, ancilliary LCD display, etc. etc.) that would just knock people's socks off, and show them a world quite different from the increasingly ordinary, just plain bad or completely absent optical viewfinders that seem to be the market direction these days (and, yes, I include many dSLRs). And quite different from and more modern than the M-system finders. Much though I like those myself, that's the past, not the future.
Possible? Perhaps. Likely? Who knows? I'd like to think the Gnomes of Solms are working on a new category-creating system even as we speak. I suspect, though, that its more likely a passing fantasy than any sort of reality.
...Mike