Evolving Film Market 2020

[Argentia1]

I was browsing my local camera store in Dallas, Texas recently when two people came in, one to buy film and the other a Canonet QL-17 camera. Both were in their late teens or early 20's. It got me wondering, how big is the film market these days, how much of that market is still older film users from before digital, and how many of these younger film newbies. Also, what would be the price point to get significant interest from these two groups of consumers in buying a new medium format camera long the lines of a Fuji ZI. Any thoughts? News of the Pixii camera figures into this, but obviously a $3k camera isn't going to attract young people wanting to experiment with film. What are your thoughts?

The film market is definitely significantly growing. All film manufacturers have reported it (and brought films back to market), also the film distributors and the labs. Lots of labs are so busy that you have to wait several days for your films. Also many new labs have opened. Established labs are investing in new machinery: Hostert (Germany) has increasing demand for their sophisticated prof. dip-and-dunk processing machines. In Bangkok the number of labs has doubled in the last 2.5 years. Now there are about 20 labs again. Very similar in Melbourne, more than 30 labs now. Recently I visited Berlin, met film photographers there. Berlin is a hot spot for film photography, including new labs and very specialised high-quality labs.

If you want more detailed information I would recommend visiting photrio.com, and there the subforum "Industry News". There you can get first-hand information from manufacturers, labs, distributors and market research analysts.

In my local photography community I also see increasing interest in film photography, mainly from young photographers, but also from digital shooters which meanwhile feel a kind of "digital fatigue", and enjoy using film again.

 

[Out to Lunch]

Anecdote vs. data. Fact vs. fiction. True believers. The randomness nature of replies like this is amazing.

 

[Argentia1]

This seems pretty anecdotal for such a conclusive statement...

+1.
The data member Skiff has presented is very good and reliable data. Market research operations are regularly using sources like active social media group members for analysis. I am regularly on facebook and instagram, too, and the boom of Asian film photographers there - including Vietnam - is very strong.
Some years ago you found almost no one from Vietnam there. Now as reported 150.000 in just one group (and you have to add the other groups, too).
And they are showing their film shots there. They are active film users. Even if you are conservative and assume they are only shooting 5 rolls p.a., then you have 750,000 rolls each year just for the members of this one group. Then you have to add the other groups, and all those who are not active on social media. That easily adds up to more than 1 million rolls of film p.a.. Quite a lot for a developing country.

The internet has completely changed and democratised how things like film cameras are bought and sold - even things like film processing and film sales. Kodak saw a 21% growth in their film market from 2018 to 2019.

Yes, that's true.

 

[css9450]

+1.
The data member Skiff has presented is very good and reliable data.

I am confused here. Aren't you Skiff?

 

[Argentia1]

Anecdote vs. data. Fact vs. fiction. True believers. The randomness nature of replies like this is amazing.

The film manufacturers, film distributors and lots of labs have published data about their increasing demand.
Some of them are obliged to publish data because of their organisational structure / regional laws, like e.g Ilford, Kodak, Fuji.

Now you are saying that the film manufacturers are lying and by that hurting laws.
Where is your evidence for that?
Where is your data?
You have never given any evidence for your claims, at least not so long as I am active here. If I have overlooked your proven data, then please give me a link to it, thanks in advance.

By the way, here is the link to Kodak, where they are explaining that their photo film sales have doubled in the last five years:
From about 6:50 min. up:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YotUW5WcOh8

 

[Argentia1]

I am confused here. Aren't you Skiff?

????

No, I am not.

 

[Bille]

What are your thoughts?

Film is pretty much dead.

https://trends.google.de/trends/explore?date=all&q=film development

Any increase in anyones personal social bubble is irrelevant for the big scheme of things.

 

[Argentia1]

Film is pretty much dead.

https://trends.google.de/trends/explore?date=all&q=film development

Any increase in anyones personal social bubble is irrelevant for the big scheme of things.

Google trends is a gimmick for hobbyists. But not at all a trustful tool for hard data market analysis. There are lots of examples where google trends have given totally wrong indications. Where the hard data = sales numbers show a completely different picture. No one in professional market research is relying on google trends.

As explained above: The big film manufacturers are obliged to publish their data. And that is certified by balance sheet certifying companies due to the legal requirements.
And the proved data shows that film sales are significantly increasing. That is the reason why new films are being introduced, and new equipment like film processors from JOBO, Filmomat or Cinestill.

In 2019 Fujifilm has sold more than 10 million instax instant film cameras.
In 2020 the whole digital camera sales (ILC and compact cameras) will be about only 8 million units (see the data published by CIPA). In 2020 film camera sales will surpass digital camera sales.

"Film is dead" is simply wrong. It has nothing to do with reality.

 

[Guth]

Despite whatever data exists at the moment, given the remarkable turnaround experienced by vinyl records and turntables, I would never rule out the possibility of a healthy (as opposed to full-on) revival of film, ultimately including new film cameras. But whatever becomes of film, one way or the other, one thing is for sure — I myself won't be around forever. For that reason alone, I'll continue to shoot film and use my film cameras as long as I still have the interest and am able to do so. Just as I still listen to all of my old LP's played on turntables via the same system that I use to listen to CD's and streaming sources as well.

When all is said and done, I feel that the images I've created using film and the music that I enjoy on vinyl LP's has a better chance at surviving for future generations to discover than the images and music I have residing on hard drives and the like. But that's not why I still shoot film and listen to vinyl records. I simply like what I like and am enjoying what I can while I can. Because just as with film and vinyl LP's, I haven't a clue as to how much time I myself will have on this planet, despite what the data might seem to indicate.

One day at a time.

 

[PKR]

We will all just have to see. Forums like this one are an echo chamber, for the most part. When we are outside, we see a few folks using film cameras and we may begin to look for that. So we may collect our own data through a filter of confirmation bias. If there is a market for the creation of new film cameras, the camera manufacturers are already on this and speculating how much the cost and profit will be. If enough people want to buy it, someone will make it.
Phil Forrest

Hi Phil, hope you're well.

An hour north of SF, with two local, larger stores selling everything digital and, with COVID restrictions, this guy continues to prosper.

I don't know how rare this is but, it's nice to see.

http://www.jeremiahsphotocorner.com/

PKR

 

[das]

I would say that it is not film or film cameras which is becoming obsolete -- it's digital cameras. The iPhone has pretty much eclipsed all consumer point-and-shoot digitals and lower-end DSLRs. Higher-end digital mirrorless / digital medium format will always be in demand because of the professional crowd and digital Leicas Ms will be a niche for the rich. The cameras that are absolutely through the roof right now are the Contax Ts, the Yashica Ts, Nikon 35ti/28ti, the Ricoh GR1s, and the Leica Minilux. Absolutely astonishing the prices these are going for. Meanwhile, many film cameras are still as expensive or more used as they were ten years ago -- the Mamiya 6/7, Leica M6/M7/MP, the autofocus Fuji 645s, etc. Maybe regular people are tired of investing in depreciating assets like expensive digital cameras?

Regarding film, if you roll your own 35mm, it can very cheap and sustainable. I am surprised that camera shops are not providing this service for people -- buying at cost 100 foot (or longer rolls if they exist) and loading them, and selling each for half of the box retail cost.

 

[Huss]

I would say that it is not film or film cameras which is becoming obsolete -- it's digital cameras. The iPhone has pretty much eclipsed all consumer point-and-shoot digitals and lower-end DSLRs. ...

Regarding film, if you roll your own 35mm, it can very cheap and sustainable. I am surprised that camera shops are not providing this service for people -- buying at cost 100 foot (or longer rolls if they exist) and loading them, and selling each for half of the box retail cost.

Agree re. digital cameras. Smart phones are so good now, and everyone has them, that they aren't selling consumer digicams. It's why Olympus called it quits, and I have their delightful PenF.
Consumers are going to film for that film experience, and using their phones for everything else. I pretty much never travel with a film camera and a digicam, but do with a film camera and my phone.

A shop needs to make money. Rolling your own only works from an individual's POV, and unless you are buying Ultrafine the savings are not that great. For a shop that needs to add in a profit margin, the savings to a consumer may not exist at all.
Film IS cheap, especially if you take inflation into account. A roll of Arista 400 is under $5, and frankly is excellent. It is Ilford film.
A roll of HP5 is $5.50? How is that expensive?

 

[das]

Huss -- I totally agree that $5.50 is not that bad. But if one is not processing it at home, add $5 for C41 processing and more for traditional b&w. I find that XP2 (C41) can be had for about $70 for a 100-foot roll or about $3.90 per roll, compared with $8.50 per roll for the box version. XP2 scans super well and a lab will get it developed right 100% of the time. You are right about other films, Kodak 100-foot rolls are $$$ and barely worth it to roll your own, with Tr-X coming out to $5.50 a roll to do it yourself.

 

[sooner]

I'm tempted to think of the "film is dead" comments here as mere trolling, especially given easily verifiable data of increasing film sales. But to be fair, film is still a niche market. The question isn't whether film will eclipse digital or whatever, it's just whether as a niche market and given modern production capacity there is a market for a new camera. I don't expect Nikon or Canon to start rolling out multiple new film cameras--but they are mega corporations that require major profit to consider such a move. I'm sure the guy trying to bring the Reflex camera to market would be thrilled to make $5 million in profit, but Canon not so much.