Film prices don't reflect analogue resurgence

Interesting enough lately I have received 4 rolls of Ferrania P30 even though I was not one of the original kink starters.

One of my friends gifted me two rolls and then another.

Another friend gifted me a roll, but to reciprocate upon our next meeting I gifted him a roll of Kodak 5222, even though I didn't have to. Know that I had access to P30 before many of the original Kickstarters who waited a long time. LOL.

Anyways free film is always special. Take note of what happened above when someone gifted me 5 rolls of Velvia 50 in 220.

Cal
 
I had a friend who went to japan on business and told him to buy me all the velvia 50 in 220 he could find. He came back in 2015 with 12 pro packs. I was expecting 2 or 3, so .....

it really comes in handy with the new fuji 617 I bought
 
IIRC there is just Velvia 100 left in 220. It is amusingly strange that the last film standing in that format is not a C41 400 film. A bit OT, but a year ago, 160NS in Japan had all formats while US had none!
I just have a single pack frozen that I bought for some future trip. 220 seems a good idea while traveling.

Price wise I was thinking about Fomapan. The cheaper sources now basically have similar prices to what was the norm years ago. Good to shoot around and it was my idea for cutting my teeth on B&W.

Develop only and scan at home does keep costs a lot down processing wise, might do that with my trip shots. Though a flatbed kills a bit the spirit of medium format.
 
It's just math

industrial film production to keep prices at the historical expectations from 0 years ago would require industrial film consumption.

The latter.... .
Hi Aristophanes - while I appreciate you taking the time to write your very long post - I’m afraid I can’t be bothered to read it.. thanks anyway for all your negative effort. I’m gonna continue enjoying what I plainly see to be a significant increase in film-interest all around me and online. Clearly never a return to the mass-market scale before digital, but a healthy, thriving and exciting niche (that’s destined to outlast the DSLR market).
 
Here is a plot I found on the Internet. Tri-X went up 500% over the past 6 years!

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As the others already have explained, the data here is wrong.
There has never been regular, original and fresh TX 400 for only 1$ / roll.

And concerning your FP4+ / B&H chart:
The latest price increase is probably because of the recent, unexpected insolvency of Ilford's US distributor.
So B&H probably has currently higher costs in getting Ilford, because the established former distribution chain is not working anymore.
Ilford is currently looking for a new, competent US distributer (wholesale).

In general:
I have price lists of films from different major markets of the last decades.
In lots of cases film is even cheaper today compared to 20 - 30 years ago if you consider inflation (which must be done for an economically correct analysis).
In some cases it is in line with inflation.
And in a few cases it is a bit more compared to former times.

But in general the overall costs for shooting film are very low / lower compared to former times, because developing costs are lower today, and the film gear is much cheaper today.
You can get professional gear for next to nothing.
Yet.
Of course used gear prices will rise in the future because of increasing interest - especially from young people - in using film.
So now is still a very good time to build a complete camera system of your favourite camera(s).

Cheers, Jan
 
Because there hasn't been an analog resurgence.

Your usual facts ignoring comment about that topic.

For years you are telling us here that film is doomed, that film companies will collapse, that there will be less film choices in the future ....and so on.

But the reality has proven you wrong.
There is indeed a film revival in several major areas. Let's have a look at the facts:
1. Instant film photography is booming for years. Fujifilm Instax has increasing demand each year sind 2004!!
Fujifilm sold about 6.5 million (!!!) Instax cameras in the latest fiscal year. So Fujifilm alone sold more than double (!) Instax cameras than all 10 DSLM manufacturers sold of their DSLM models in 2016 (which were only 3.1 million for the whole global DSLM market).
Fujifilm is prodiucing instant Instax film in three shifts a day, 24h each day to satisfy demand.
They even had to build a new plant to cope with the boom.
And you are telling us there is no revival: How ridiculous!

2. Polaroid films (former Impossible Project) are also booming, with a growth rate of about 20% p.a.
Because of that the main shareholder of Impossible bought Polaroid this spring, invested more and transferred Impossible Project into Polaroid Originals. And they have already a new camera and improved films on the market.

3. Eastman Kodak has hired 10% additional staff for film production. Kodak Alaris is reporting increasing demand for prof. colour film and BW film. And they intend to bring an Ektachrome film back. Why that? Because there is "no analogue resurgence" as you said? No, because they see increasing interest in film.

4. Ilford is reporting increasing demand for their films. Same for Adox, Bergger and Rollei-Films.

5. The big film distributors like B&H, Fotoimpex, ars-imago, Maco etc. are all reporting increasing demand.

6. Lots of succesful film related Kickstarter and Indiegogo projects in the last years. Why? Because there is interest!

7. Adox is doubling their factory space. Film Ferrania is marching on and investing. Would they do that and take all the risks if there is no resurgence as you say? Of course not!
They are building their new plants because their market data is clear and showing rising interest in film.

8. JOBO has introduced two new film processors. Simply because of increasing demand.

9. In your latest post you've said there is no professional lab equipment anymore. That is simply wrong: Professional lab equipment is produced e.g. by Noritsu, Fujifilm, Hostert, Colenta, JOBO.
And there are several specialised companies for refurbishing lab machines. And companies who have enough spare parts for decades.
There are even several manufacturers (most from Asia) which are now producing new spare parts for Agfa, Fuji and Noritsu machines.
I've seen them and their products at the last Photokinas (biggest photo fair in the world).

10. The next week a new 'brick and mortar', physical shop for
- used photo film cameras
- used small format film cameras (S8, 16mm)
- repairs of all these cameras (with a young repair specialist)
will open in Berlin:
http://clickundsurr.de/
Why? Increasing demand.

11. Recently a new camera store (Leistenschneider) opened in Frankfurt. Mainly a digital store.
But:
They also offer the complete film programmes of Fujifilm, Ilford and Kodak Alaris on big shelves!
And not only that, but also photo chemistry and lab goods for self-developing.
Would they do that if there is no new interest in film?

That are only some aspects. There are more indicators for the fact that we are in the beginning phase of a film revival (in instant photography we are already in a full boom).

Cheers, Jan
 
There is no film resurgence.

What you see is that as the savage market reduces due to breakage, minot production steps in, bit nowhere near the industrial scale necessary.

Fuji's Instax is a novelty item and is categorized as "toy" in many manufacturer data sets.

The financial of all the public equity holders for film productions are negative towards demand. The roll film market has reduced by 99.999999%. A 0.0000001% pip is not a resurgence by any commonly accepted accounting nor equity principles.

The market has shrunk so much it's been dropped entirely for both manufacturer and industrial data sets and as well for retail profiling. The market for film is now so tiny it has zero investment profile. Instax cameras are eve in the "toy" category now.

There is no film resurgence. Show macroeconomic data from trusted sources using equity measures to prove. Your anecdotes don't make up for the complete evisceration of the film product from the balance sheets and supply catalogues.
 
There is no film resurgence.

What you see is that as the savage market reduces due to breakage, minot production steps in, bit nowhere near the industrial scale necessary.

All the film manufacturers are producing films. So the necessary industrial scale is there, the demand high enough to successfully produce films.

Fuji's Instax is a novelty item and is categorized as "toy" in many manufacturer data sets.

Instax was introduced in 1998. It is an old and established product. And it has increasing demand since 2004. So for 13 years, and still increasing.
A much longer boom phase than digital cameras had!
Maybe it is a toy for you. But not for others.
And fact is, that much much more like this product compared to DSLM cameras. The type you always told would be the most successful......reality has proven you wrong, again.

The financial of all the public equity holders for film productions are negative towards demand. The roll film market has reduced by 99.999999%. A 0.0000001% pip is not a resurgence by any commonly accepted accounting nor equity principles.

The numbers are completely wrong.
And by the way:
- Ilford got new investors in 2015; Why have they invested? Because of the positive outlook of the film revival.
- Impossible got an new investor in 2014 for the same reason, this investor bought also Polaroid this spring.
- Fujifilm has invested millions in new production capacity; Fujfilm is making much more money with its silver-halide photo products compared to their digital photo products.
- Kodak has invested in new products and staff.
- Film Ferrania is investing.
- Adox is doubling its factory.
- Bergger has invested in new products.

Fact is, investors and companies are putting money in that market. Because their analyses are showing them positive outlooks.

The market has shrunk so much it's been dropped entirely for both manufacturer and industrial data sets and as well for retail profiling. The market for film is now so tiny it has zero investment profile. Instax cameras are eve in the "toy" category now.

Again wrong. There is data. But you don't have it. You have to pay for the data. And it's expensive. Therefore of course those who have paid for it will not publish it and give it away for free this way.
Concerning investments, see above: Lots of different investments in this market.

Cheers, Jan
 
Your viewpoint depends on your definition of resurgence. Differrent definitions cause people to talk past one another.

Well, if
- a 13 long growth phase (Instax)
- 6.5 million sold Instax cameras (more than double compared to the whole DSLM market)
- production of dozens of million instant film packs, production 24h each day, a new, bigger factory needed (Instax)
- new instax films - BW and square
- growth rates of 10-20 p.a. for about 5 years (Impossible/Polaroid)
- a growth rates of 10-40% p.a. in film distribution (several specialised film distributors in Europe)
- a growth of 10 - 45% p.a. in certain markets (Ilford, Rollei-Film, Adox)
- a significant growth in youtube videos focussing on film (lots of by young digital photographers who now also enjoy shooting film, e.g. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWPUD3F-jFE )
- permanent articles in digital photo magazines about the new interest in film
- lots of companies investing in new film (related) products
and so on......

is not a resurgence, then what is / should be a resurgence?

Of course the revival has different strenghts and speeds in diferent areas and markets.
But you have to be blind to not see there is really something going on and changing in the market in favour of film.

Cheers, Jan
 
Supply and demand aren't necessarily linked.

Supply can be artificially limited by the manufacturers.

Niche markets are vulnerable because... well they have no other option.
 
The economic message here is that film prices do indeed reflect the market's increasing popularity and sales. If there is a product that people want, but not much of it, they will pay whatever it takes to get it, within reason. If something is dirt cheap but no one wants to use it, then they couldn't give it away.
 
Supply and demand aren't necessarily linked.

Supply can be artificially limited by the manufacturers.

Irrelevant for our case.
Because supply is definitely not limited by the film manufacturers.
After many hard years they are of cause happy now that the demand is significantly getting better step by step, year after year.
And they are producing in-line with that, satisfying the increasing demand.
 
Well, if
- a 13 long growth phase (Instax)
- 6.5 million sold Instax cameras (more than double compared to the whole DSLM market)
- production of dozens of million instant film packs, production 24h each day, a new, bigger factory needed (Instax)
- new instax films - BW and square

There should be one extremely important fact added:

Fujifilm is now selling more instant cameras p.a. than Polaroid has sold even in their best, golden times !!
So this is much more than a "resurgence" or a "revival":
It is a complete new era.
 
Everything is logical if you look at all factors - i.e. not only at supply/demand in quantitative sense, but also at elasticity at both ends...
 
I had a friend who went to japan on business and told him to buy me all the velvia 50 in 220 he could find. He came back in 2015 with 12 pro packs. I was expecting 2 or 3, so .....

it really comes in handy with the new fuji 617 I bought

Wow. That was very smart. What a great film.

Cal
 
As the others already have explained, the data here is wrong.
There has never been regular, original and fresh TX 400 for only 1$ / roll.

And concerning your FP4+ / B&H chart:
The latest price increase is probably because of the recent, unexpected insolvency of Ilford's US distributor.
So B&H probably has currently higher costs in getting Ilford, because the established former distribution chain is not working anymore.
Ilford is currently looking for a new, competent US distributer (wholesale).

In general:
I have price lists of films from different major markets of the last decades.
In lots of cases film is even cheaper today compared to 20 - 30 years ago if you consider inflation (which must be done for an economically correct analysis).
In some cases it is in line with inflation.
And in a few cases it is a bit more compared to former times.

But in general the overall costs for shooting film are very low / lower compared to former times, because developing costs are lower today, and the film gear is much cheaper today.
You can get professional gear for next to nothing.
Yet.
Of course used gear prices will rise in the future because of increasing interest - especially from young people - in using film.
So now is still a very good time to build a complete camera system of your favourite camera(s).

Cheers, Jan

Jan,

Film gear is certainly cheap. Recently bought a 1958 Linhof 2x3 Tech IV in shelf queen condition for $800.00. Came with a 100/2.8 Zeiss Planar that the seller was clear about having a separation issue. Send the lens to John at Focal Point for repair. Cost only $250.00 for the repair.

Crazy prices.

Cal
 
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