Interesting (as always) to follow a thread here.
My mother-in-law just dug out my wife's maternal grandfather's camera - an Agfa Super Silette with f2.8 lens and therefore manufactured in the year I was born (1958). I have polished it up and this morning bought a film in Boots the chemist going into work. A chap saw me buying a roll of film and asked me about it. He had no idea people were still using film - he had long given up on it and used digital. He saw the opportunity and tried to sell me his old Pentax gear. What was interesting was that he, like other people I meet, did not know film was still out there AT ALL. They all think that it had died a death years ago.
I hear all these things about film, but I have no solid statistics about film use vs demand and supply. I have no information about the economics of it - about producing and shipping the stuff. Obviously a lot of people here on RFF still use film - but I don't see many film cameras on my travels. This year on a two week holiday in Sri Lanka, I think I only saw two film cameras - oddly, one was a Contax G2 just like mine. I just don't see film cameras any more: it is very much the exception when I do see one and it is all the more striking for it. Believe me, I keep my eyes open for other men's "kit" out there, but I just don't see film cameras any more.
As against which, there is still a vast amount of film equipment being offloaded on ebay and elsewhere, which suggests that people are still giving up film. I often ask people on ebay why they are selling, and the common answer is that they are just giving up on film.
My impression, and it is only an impression, is that film has had something of a revival, but that revival is running out of steam.
What that means is that the market is drying up, and those remaining behind (the processors, printers, shops and so on) are getting more business simply because so many others have left the market.
The future? I refuse to believe that it is beyond the wit of man to make film and equipment in an age of crowd-funding and 3D printing. If the Victorians could make film for a TINY market back in the mid-nineteenth century, then we can too. It may be that the market has to settle and we will be looking to niche firms like Ilford and Adox to make our film, but it won't stop.
Ironically, it is cameras like my "new" Agfa Super Silette which will carry on for years to come - it will likely survive me now.
I remain cautiously optimistic - but ready for change, upheaval even.
rjstep3
Your suppositions are entirely logical, and I agree with you. I believe that there will 'always' be a market for photographic film - even though that market is a niche or boutique market. That demand will be supplied by companies that can survive at relatively low volumes. That precludes large manufacturers, most likely, because their factories were built for high volume; I would guess that scaling down would be difficult. I believe it also means that more photographic products will fall by the wayside. We are already seeing this, as reversal films disappear and color negative choices diminish. We have also seen the loss of film formats for which there is little demand, such as 110 and 126, APS, and Disc. We are left with essentially 35mm, 120, some common sheet film sizes, and cine film of various sorts.
Kodak 'film' is essentially now two companies, as the consumer film division was taken over by the Kodak UK retirement fund. They have pulled back to Kodak Gold 200 and Kodak Ultra Max 400. Nothing else. The new company is named 'Kodak Alaris', but they continue to advertise their product under the brand name 'Kodak'.
http://www.kodakalaris.com/about/frequently-asked-questions
Kodak still owns the professional film division. The list of films and formats they provide is naturally longer (and in far more formats), but nowhere near what it was:
Film Cat No.
KODAK PROFESSIONAL T-MAX 100 Film
KODAK PROFESSIONAL TRI-X 320 Film
KODAK PROFESSIONAL TRI-X 400 Film
KODAK PROFESSIONAL PORTRA 160 Film
KODAK PROFESSIONAL PORTRA 400 Film
KODAK PROFESSIONAL EKTAR 100 Film
http://www.kodak.com/global/en/professional/products/films/filmsIndex.jhtml?pq-path=13319
Things have changed, and changed rapidly. The digital revolution in photography has been extremely disruptive. The last few bastions of photographic film in industry, medical and the movie industry, have almost completely converted to digital. In fact, as it was recently noted that a major motion picture was filmed in 70mm film, the announcement was also made that a number of movie theaters were being 'converted' to once again show films:
http://www.cinemablend.com/new/Quen...eaters-Small-Fortune-70mm-Upgrades-95517.html
A theater installation expert recently spoke with The New York Times, and in his estimation it will cost an average of $60,000 to $80,000 just to set up the capability to show The Hateful Eight in 70mm. Before going wide on January 8 in a more standard digital format, the film will open Christmas Day on 96 screens that have been retrofitted to handle the rarely used presentation.
The same article also says:
The report quotes the statistics from National Association of Theater Owners, which indicate that of the 40,000 screens in the United States alone, 97 percent use digital projection, which has become pervasive throughout the industry.
97 percent isn't digital making inroads against film in movie theaters. It's a rout. As in game over.
I used to read the annual CIPA reports on the photographic industry. It used to report annually on silver-based film sales. I can't recall which year it was, maybe 2007 or 2008, but they finally stopped reporting on sales of film, because they had utterly fallen off a cliff. There was no more consumer mass-market to report on. Again, game over.
What remains is a niche.
I happen to love film. In fact, I've just fired up my film use again, after a number of years of disuse. I anticipate that I'll be shooting B&W, and I anticipate that B&W will be available for a long time to come; but it will be costing me more, and it will be available with fewer choices.
That's OK. Film is only mostly dead - as a mass market consumer product. It remains alive for those few who enjoy it, and we should enjoy it for as long as we can.