have lens prices peaked?

It nearly axiomatic that a peak in the market can only be identifies in hindsight, once the downturn is well begun. So I would say, no -- prices for high quality lenses has not yet peaked.
Ari
 
PMCC said:
First the dot.com market, then financial markets and then housing. Consumers demand a new bubble! ;)
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With all these bubbles, I think it might be wise to exploit the bubbles bubble before it pops! Or just invest in printing plates for when we give up on our current currencies.

As for cameras, any system will eat some cash, so I have been careful to invest in those systems that have characteristics that allow the lenses to be repurposed to modern bodies. It's less about making money than about not losing it.
 
back alley said:
let's not be so leica-centric...i'm talking about cv, rollei, old canon lenses as well...
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How can you not talk about Leica when they are the one influencing the market? It's like you can't talk about prices of consumer items without talking about the price of oil.
 
n5jrn said:
Many here seem to think prices can only go up from here on. If you are amongst that crowd, I have a question for you: Have you recently (in the last year) purchased a lens because if you waited, you believe the cost would become unaffordable to you?
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I do think that prices will inevitably come down, but not right now. I am also thinning my Leica collection as time goes by but I wouldn't get rid of all of them at once.
 
Jockos said:
The prices won't go down until the recession is over. Some vintage lenses like 'lux pre-asph e46 and apo-cron, will still fetch insane prices, while more common lenses will go down a bit.
All new lenses will drop a bit too, unless the production stays low (Leica).
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Econ 101 says it is the other way around.

Recession = less disposable income, less demand, prices fall.

End of recession = more disposable income, more demand, prices rise.
 
Araakii said:
How can you not talk about Leica when they are the one influencing the market? It's like you can't talk about prices of consumer items without talking about the price of oil.
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i did not say to stop talking about leica, note the 'as well' at the end of my setence...only that i was talking about all lens brands.
 
back alley said:
i look around the classfieds here and elsewhere and think to myself...these prices are crazy!!

i know that with so many digital cameras now accepting m mount lenses that they are in demand all over again...but why are they so expensive...and not just leica brand lenses...cv, rollie, old lenses and new!

do you think this will continue? or have we peaked?
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Leica has increased prices across the board 5 to 10% twice a year
for years now.

As long as that continues,
expect to see the used lenses to continue to increase as well.

The yen seems to have stabilized against the dollar.
it went from an average of 115 yen to the dollar to 75 yen to the dollar.
that could hold new Japanese products at their current levels.

Stephen
 
Aristophanes said:
Econ 101 says it is the other way around.

Recession = less disposable income, less demand, prices fall.

End of recession = more disposable income, more demand, prices rise.
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The situation is way more complex than some simple rules of thumb can explain. There are so many different types of lenses (vintage that are hard to find clean, new modern that are not in stock, ultra limited editions, etc) and each of them has slightly different groups of buyers and sellers. For new lenses that are not in stock, as soon as you can find them anywhere online, price premium will disappear. For vintage lenses, their prices will drop once people are strapped for cash. For limited edition ones, their prices are dictated by collectors. If their fortunes start to sour in a recession, they might be forced to sell some of the items.
 
Araakii said:
The situation is way more complex than some simple rules of thumb can explain. There are so many different types of lenses (vintage that are hard to find clean, new modern that are not in stock, ultra limited editions, etc) and each of them has slightly different groups of buyers and sellers. For new lenses that are not in stock, as soon as you can find them anywhere online, price premium will disappear. For vintage lenses, their prices will drop once people are strapped for cash. For limited edition ones, their prices are dictated by collectors. If their fortunes start to sour in a recession, they might be forced to sell some of the items.
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Your last sentence just said the same thing as my post! :)

Supply and demand. If a vintage lens is no longer made, the last one is priceless. For collectors, every lens is priceless or they are engaged in arbitrage, and not collecting. Groups and buyers move around, but I bet if you graph the price, you'll see a constant relationship between supply and demand. Instant online price checks have made that an absolute as we are no longer reliant on local markets.

What people seem yo be assessing here is not that relationship, but the timing of the market for their purposes. They get a m43 adapter for a lens class and then have lens price sticker shock. Well, maybe it has something to do with that adapter creating more demand.
 
JSU said:
From maybe 2000 to ~2005 or 2006, just prior to the original release of the M8, Leica mount lenses were essentially flat if not dropping slightly in value.

I can also recall getting some hefty rebates on the purchase of a pair of new M6 classics.

But the digital revolution in RF and EVIL cameras pretty much assures that RF lenses will hold their value.

Leica Camera AG is doing their part in not flooding the market with new lenses. When an anxious buyer is told their choice of a new Leica ASPH lens is on indefinite backorder it isn't a stretch to understand their motivation to shop used which maintains a premium value for the used lenses.

There was a visible upturn starting in late 2009, early 2010 for Leica M lenses, which is easily attributable to the release of the M9. I see current prices and feel very fortunate to have acquired most of my newer Leica lenses in early 2009. They all have appreciated from their purchase prices. But if I sold what would it cost me to reacquire?

Once a new digital body is purchased, it is going to loose some value, unless it is a M9-P which is likely otherwise backordered. Historically digital cameras do not devalue to a stable plateau such as film cameras.
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From 2000 - 2005 Leica was poorly managed and perhaps was not likely to survive without a certain forestry magnate flushing the company with cash. With the transition to digital in question at that period, Leica users were faced with the possibility their investment in lenses would solely be usable on film cameras, and perhaps decline in values the whole digital RF segments was perhaps going the way of the dodo. So prices flatlined and Leica offered rebates until the M8 and M9 revived demand. And with that revival (and a lot of wealth in newly developed countries) demand went up, and so did prices.

Buy low, sell high. Well in your case, you got the first part right (lucky *******) :p
 
I am not sure the prices of vintage lenses has much if anything to do with the current economy. There appear to be a couple of factors driving prices up:

1 - A tilde wave of mirror-less interchangeable lens cameras with adapters that let you mount M lenses and
2 - Leica's inability or willingness to produce enough new lenses to meet demand

Leica operates at the luxury end of the market so there were never that many lenses out there (compared to Nikon et al) to start with. Therefore even a small increase in demand will have a large impact on price.

For those who already own the lenses this is good news assuming you want to trade it in for something else. For those want ing to get into classic Leica gear times are tough. I don't see the prices dropping any time soon.
 
Technology is constantly changing. I think the prices will inevitably come down because people might not need to take pictures with traditional lenses anymore. (Like the new Lytro camera).

For those who bought Leica lenses to mount on their digital non-Leica bodies, if one day they realize that Leica lenses don't really give them better images or if there's another way to take better pictures, they will abandon the Leica ship.

JSU said:
From maybe 2000 to ~2005 or 2006, just prior to the original release of the M8, Leica mount lenses were essentially flat if not dropping slightly in value.

I can also recall getting some hefty rebates on the purchase of a pair of new M6 classics.

But the digital revolution in RF and EVIL cameras pretty much assures that RF lenses will hold their value.

Leica Camera AG is doing their part in not flooding the market with new lenses. When an anxious buyer is told their choice of a new Leica ASPH lens is on indefinite backorder it isn't a stretch to understand their motivation to shop used which maintains a premium value for the used lenses.

There was a visible upturn starting in late 2009, early 2010 for Leica M lenses, which is easily attributable to the release of the M9. I see current prices and feel very fortunate to have acquired most of my newer Leica lenses in early 2009. They all have appreciated from their purchase prices. But if I sold what would it cost me to reacquire?

Once a new digital body is purchased, it is going to loose some value, unless it is a M9-P which is likely otherwise backordered. Historically digital cameras do not devalue to a stable plateau such as film cameras.
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I don't think Leica really has much to do with the increase in prices at all. Most people out there are not shooting Leica glass nor ever will. All vintage lenses have gone up in price from Minolta to Olympus to Pentax. It's a combination of the rise of micro four-thirds systems and forums like this that talk up how great an Olympus 50mm 1.8 MIJ lens is. Vintage lenses would not have risen in price without either being around. So, yes, Leica glass has gone up in price, but Leica the Company really has little to do with it.
 
Aristophanes said:
Econ 101 says it is the other way around.

Recession = less disposable income, less demand, prices fall.

End of recession = more disposable income, more demand, prices rise.
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True, but econ 101 also says that premium items will increase demand in recession, crazy as it seems.
At least the 101 I got ;)

Also for the gold diggers, I don't see the price of tilt/shift lenses coming down any time soon. They fetch a crazy prize, but have an actual practical application, contrary to say a Canon 1.2 which only has "character".
 
And of course you need an expensive lens to become famous!

Miroslav Tichy bypassed all this asset based angst and took his photos with this:



1265.large.jpg


Makes a Lux with haze and a few dust particles seem excessive. :D
 
Jockos said:
True, but econ 101 also says that premium items will increase demand in recession, crazy as it seems.
At least the 101 I got ;)
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True. because premium product manufacturers cut back, reducing supply.

And because in a recession objects besides currency are seen as repositories of value, like precious metals and jewelry. I think some lenses fall into that category, but far fewer than many assume.
 
Inflation is the key factor, my FX rate when I started buying higher end Leica lenses was at 48-52 to a US$ now it's at 43 and that was not too long ago. I believe I can't really afford any Leica aspherical lenses nowadays though, used or new.
 
Don't forget to add the following factors into the mix:

1)Forums like this one allow many many more of us to share our pictures and talk about our purchases - label it a "sleeper lens" (eg: M-Rokkor 40mm), post some pics across different fora, add in some google search, and voila, the price of this "hidden gem" can very well go up within a few weeks. High demand, low supply can help sustain it. This also happened to the Nikon SB-25 after strobist.com hit the big time.

2) The FED and many other central banks around the world are injecting cash into their economies at frightening levels and at interest rates at, or close to, ZERO PERCENT. For those that can tap into this pool, this is effectively FREE MONEY! Or close to it.

Regards,
~
 
I would like to arise another point that I think nobody mentioned: what would happen in, say, 10 years when "everybody" is using their tablet/mobile gadget for taking photographs, and "nobody" is carrying that bulky camera with lots of unneeded accessories and "stuff"?

I can imagine a near future where the camera can be used as a mobile phone and also as a "post-production" station (or an ultra-portable PC with multiple connectivity options and a 3D photo & video camera, or... well, I guess you get the idea)

Then, I suppose very few lenses will retain value, while cameras may hold theirs better, as "antiquities" or simple collector's items.
 
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