Interesting conversation. Speaking of quantum efficiency, does anyone know what ISO rating would correspond to an efficiency of 100%? I.e., what is the highest possible ISO? Would the Nikon D3s already be at that point?
QE is really important but not the whole game. One can have a sensor with very high quantum efficiency but very low performance due to noise.
There are (more or less) three sources of noise:
1. Shot noise.
This is "counting noise" (think of tossing small numbers of marbles into a cup a few feet away -- there is a random element to how many marbles end up in the cup). This noise is equal to the reciprocal square root of the number of events detected. The
only way to reduce shot noise is to count more events: higher QE, faster lenses.
2. Dark current.
Some sensors are better than others. Colder sensors are better than warm ones. Dark current accumulates as a function of exposure time. This is the main reason why astronomers and microscopists like to cool sensors to -40° or colder. Improvements continue to be made here. It is likely that one of the most under-rated reasons for improvement in high-ISO performance is improved thermal management. (It would be really interesting to see tests comparing how different
cameras perform at lower and higher ambient temperatures.)
3. Read noise.
Note that until DA conversion, CCDs and CMOS sensors are analog devices! Read noise is the noise penalty incurred in shifting accumulated charges off of the CCD or CMOS sensor, amplification of the signals, and digital to analog conversion. Great strides have been made here and are continuing to be made. Thermal management also can make a difference.
My guess is that the D3/700 cameras have decent but not yet spectacular QE (they still use front-illuminated sensors, after all). Sony's microlens tech was industry-leading for many years, and Sony is supplying Nikon's high-end sensors. This helps a lot with QE.
I expect that the Nikons do have superbly low read noise (Sony has excelled at making chips with low read noise), good thermal management, and truly outstanding post-capture signal processing.
Yes, there is still room for significant improvement. Just not as much room as some people think.
The improvements that I find most exciting are in *price*! Look at the performance of the (Sony) sensor in the Pentax Kx. That's a relatively inexpensive DSLR, and its performance is for any practical purpose as good as
any APS-C DSLR ever released.