How many of you will buy the M8 or Digital M

[nrb]

I'll pass too!!!
Love my new 5D, and I've still 500 uncropped Agfa APX and Vista to use with my Leica glass.
Maybe later I'll consider a M 9 or 10.

 

[jaapv]

To be clear, I am a rank amateur. Before joining the RFF barely 9 months ago, I was a happy owner of a Zorki 4K/J8 outfit and some prosumer digital gear. Since then, I've acquired (and have been using) an M7, an R-D1, an R2, bunch of Leica, Konica, and CV lenses, and a Contax G2 outfit, all thanks to the friendly and much appreciated advice I found here on this forum.

I'd developed the lust for the “M” over time based on RFF posts that exulted it's virtues as a quiet, extremely well-built, and well-designed shooter that may last me for a long, long time. The cloth shutter, the ergonomics, Leica's rich history of producing amazing b&w photos, all that stuff made a purchase of an "M" simply irresistible. And rightly so - I simply love using the M7.

From recent posts, it looks like Leica M8 will have a fairly loud shutter, no shutter advance lever, and will be larger than the M7. With the exception of the Leica “look”, it will be, effectively, an R-D2 (more megapixels than R-D1). So I wonder, if the M8 is just a slightly improved R-D1, why wasn’t the entire limited stock of R-D1 sold out as soon as it became available? Is it the aforementioned “Leica look” and prestige of owning a Leica that’s making the M8 so much more appealing then the R-D1? How much of this pent-up demand for the M8 is based on reason and how much of it is simply a trained response to anything new from Leica? Not that I mind, not in the least, but - just wondering…

A fair question that deserves a fair answer. Or rather two questions. The first one, why M8 over RD2. Well, the first simple answer: because there probably never will be a RD2. Second simple answer: for RD2 and M8 simply substitute: M7 and Bessa. Or Mercedes and Hyundai. Or Seiko and Lange und Sohne and so on. Then the question provides its own answer.
The second question: Why was the RD1 not the succes it deserves to be?
A lot of reasons. Firstly the name on the camera: It should have been Voigtlander instead of Epson. It should have been marketed by a company that had a reputation in the camera field. By the time Epson had gained a reputation it was for shoddy QC and second-rate customer care. It should have been sold through camera channels and not by a company that had the printer-mentality: replace the thing until the customer stops complaining. It should have been reviewed by photographers and not by computer geeks or digital Point and Shoot "experts" that didn't understand the first thing about it. Having said that it has earned a place of honour in camera history because most of them ended up in the expert hands of enthusiasts like we see on this forum.

 

[J. Borger]

Why was the RD1 not the succes it deserves to be?
A lot of reasons. Firstly the name on the camera: It should have been Voigtlander instead of Epson. It should have been marketed by a company that had a reputation in the camera field. By the time Epson had gained a reputation it was for shoddy QC and second-rate customer care. It should have been sold through camera channels and not by a company that had the printer-mentality: replace the thing until the customer stops complaining. It should have been reviewed by photographers and not by computer geeks or digital Point and Shoot "experts" that didn't understand the first thing about it. Having said that it has earned a place of honour in camera history because most of them ended up in the expert hands of enthusiasts like we see on this forum.

I think you are spot on.
I have said it from day one the Epson brand name was the main reason of failure in salesfigures.
On the other hand there must have been some photographers involved in developing the product.
I can only hope the M8 has a B&W mode (in raw format) with complete B&W workflow as convincing as the R-D1. That's my main concern with respect to the M8.
Yes i know .. PS .. converting myself ... have tried all the conversions and plug-ins .. but nothing beats the R-D1's B&W files!

 

[Jon Perry]

Jon,

I guess that's where you and I differ.

Out of curiousity, in what way?

I'm not making assumptions about Leicas success or otherwise regarding the M8. I'm just going to wait and see how the sales go. We can try and guess as much as we like, but the sales figures will not lie. The M8 either succeeds and Leica continues as a camera manufacturer or it fails and they become a chapter (although a rather large one!) in the history books.

I hope it succeeds.

 

[jaapv]

I think you are spot on.
I have said it from day one the Epson brand name was the main reason of failure in salesfigures.
On the other hand there must have been some photographers involved in developing the product.
I can only hope the M8 has a B&W mode (in raw format) with complete B&W workflow as convincing as the R-D1. That's my main concern with respect to the M8.
Yes i know .. PS .. converting myself ... have tried all the conversions and plug-ins .. but nothing beats the R-D1's B&W files!

try this:
Create a levels adjustment layer.
Set foregroundcolour to black.
Create a adjustment layer with gradient map.
Adjust the levels in the colour channels of the levels1 layer.
Flatten.
Remove colour (is invisble anyway)

 

[Erl]

Wow! I haven't read this entire thread, just skimmed some of the comments.

Seems like a lot conjecture and "apples and oranges" comparisons going on besides some quite cojent remarks.

I have just ordered my M8, 1/2 an hour ago. I am # 6 on the dealers list. It is expected maybe 30 of the ordered 200 for Australia will actually make it to these shores first time round. Hopefully I will be in that 30.

I have been using an RD-1 for the last maybe 9 months. Despite it's well known shortcomings it is still serving me well and is a delight to use wthin its particular limitations which are frustrating. I am definitely looking forward to the reliability I am accustomed to from Leica. I will keep the RD-1 as a backup, along with my collection of M film cameras.

Detractors of the M8, who have never seen, handled or used it need to sit back and think about what they really expect from a camera. If the M8 does not promise or offer it, you are looking at the wrong tool for your needs. Whose fault is that? Choose the tools for the job, remembering that no tool is successfully universal. That is why you have a tool bag to hold the range of tools required.

Cheers,
Erl

 

[sgy1962]

Which dealers are taking pre-orders for this camera? My understanding is that Leica is not even accepting orders yet. I suspect that this camera will just dribble onto the market and there will be a long waiting list for this one. That's not a problem for most as film is still plenty available.


I never considered this until my local lab lost my film recently.

 

[Mark Norton]

Erl, any indication on price? Interesting the initial sales is set at 200. Scale up by population for the major markets (US, Canada, Japan, Europe, Oz) and that suggests 6 - 8000 cameras in the first year, 30-40 a day, say, €20m turnover.

 

[AndyPiper]

Which dealers are taking pre-orders for this camera? My understanding is that Leica is not even accepting orders yet. I suspect that this camera will just dribble onto the market and there will be a long waiting list for this one.

My local region is a relatively unpopulated, and not especially wealthy/cosmopolitan, part of the U.S. (Rocky Mountain states). Within that region there were, as of June, 30 pre-orders for the M8, and the reps expected that the first shipment alone (by end of October) would fill all of those orders.

I know of 6 pre-orders in Denver (and that's just 2 camera stores out of a dozen or so) - in a metropolitan population of under 3 million. Extrapolate that to 300 million in the US, and that would make at least 600 M8s pre-ordered sight (and specs) unseen. Assuming that 1/4 of the world population is even vaguely a marketplace for Leica (1.5 billion) that would make 3000 pre-orders, as of June, world-wide. Likely higher by now.

And that's just the pre-orders, which is 25% of the demand (per Jorge's poll). Being very conservative.

And Leica seems to be planning to fill the pre-orders in the first month or so after PhotoKina.

In terms of production and planning - this is no longer the company that "dribbled out" the DMR.

 

[petermcwerner]

Assuming that 1/4 of the world population is even vaguely a marketplace for Leica (1.5 billion)

Very optimistic in my view. Think of the millions in Africa, Arab countries, Asia, Latin America who have to live on 1 US$ per day or less...

 

[AndyPiper]

Peter: I hear what you're saying.

I guess I meant to say "assuming that 1/4 of the world's population resides in cultures with enough wealth that digital cameras are not beyond the realm of imagination for a significant proportion of the population - and thus vaguely a marketplace for Leica" - i.e. US, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia, and some 'new industrialists/entrepreneurs' regions of China, India, and Russia.

Which still leaves 4.5 billion in the $1 per day or less category.

Maybe that estimate is still "optimistic" - if 4.5 billion in unbelievable poverty can be called "optimistic".

 

[Erl]

Erl, any indication on price? Interesting the initial sales is set at 200. Scale up by population for the major markets (US, Canada, Japan, Europe, Oz) and that suggests 6 - 8000 cameras in the first year, 30-40 a day, say, €20m turnover.

Mark, The Oz importer has (reputedly) ordered 200, but clearly expects to get only 30 units. Price wise, I have been "quoted" AU$6990 - 7200 as an expected range! That equates to: US$5362 - 5523. Only time (Mid November) will tell. Interestingly, the dealer did not ask for a deposit until real facts are available.

 

[Mark Norton]

It would be interesting to know how many cameras Leica are gearing up to make on a continuous basis. They must have done a forecast using whatever statistics on M ownership and use they can lay their hands on including current M sales, DMR sales, the market for digital cameras, the prevailing economic climate and the rest. Put all that in the mix and, depending on the assumptions they make, they could be awash with product or back-ordered for months.

Experience with the DMR, D2, D-Lux 2 suggests they tend to be conservative with the DMR having had the additional problems of delayed introduction.

But, overall, it sounds to me like they will be making them in the 10's per day not the 100's...

 

[mani]

it sounds to me like they will be making them in the 10's per day not the 100's...

I'm really not sure that the hand-made processes that some people seem to be expecting will hold true for the M8, quite frankly.
All in all, my impression is that a few hardcore Leica fans are anticipating a camera of impossibly high craftsmanship: the information we have so far of an initial release of 10,000 units would mean, given Mark's estimated production rate here, that the old guys at Solms started assembling the M8 around 3 years ago...

My personal hope is that the camera will be deserving of the relatively (but not outrageously) high price tag that we've been led to expect.
No more or less.

 

[Mark Norton]

Mani, I said 10's, not 100's. By that I meant "certainly more than 10, most likely less than 100". But I'm guessing. 10000 cameras waiting to be shipped in October seems unlikely IMHO.

 

[ehparis]

Not buying. Outrageous, ridiculous, and absurd estimated price.

My comments are based on the fact it would be obsolete before I got my Visa bill paid off.

"Obsolete?" At the present rate technology is moving (plus technology yet unknown) the camera could easily be a dinosaur in 2 or 3 years, not 5 as elsewhere suggested. "Obsolete" does not mean worthless but it calls into question the amount of an original recent investment.

Technology? What about the "Flutter Shutter" that may be available to consumers in a few years?

http://www.digitalcamerainfo.com/co...tter-Camera-Partners-with-MITU-of-Toronto.htm

(link "borrowed" from a message at Nikonians.org)

Jerry

 

[amateriat]

I think the "10,000" number is the (admittely speculative) estimate for the total initial production run. I know that Leica's M prodution process might remind some of the joke about a visitor to Rolls-Royce's factory asking the shop steward how fast their assembly line moves (punchline, from steward: "I think it moved a bit last week"), but it's not just a cottage industry on steroids: nevertheless, it would be almost as bad for Solms to vastly undersestimate demand as it would be for them to overshoot in terms of production. Barring some undiscovered engineering glitch in the camera, quite a few people are going to want to get their hands on one. How many? We'll see, but many eyes are on Leica right now, possibly the most in years.


- Barrett

 

[John Camp]

I would expect the numbers to be a bit higher than that. I think the people in Solms would be doing more in the way of inspection and verification, rather than actual machining and assembly. That work, I think, will be jobbed out, although to very high levels of specification. That should allow Leica to produce large numbers at the beginning, then tailing off to a sustained lower level as time goes by, without actually having to fire/rehire at Solms itself. (I understand that the hiring/firing process in Germany is fairly intricate.)

One thing that would impact production numbers would be an estimated delivery date for an M9. If we assume an M8 will hold its own through the introduction of the next Nikon/Canon evolution, I don't think that we can assume that it would hold on beyond that. (I expect that the next Nikon/Canon evolution would push 35mm-size sensors to ~22mp; the next step beyond that, whether it focuses on megapixels or on dynamic range or something unguessable, will require a response from Leica. I would expect that to be about five years away.)

I would not be surprised to see new cameras from Canon and even possibly Nikon (perhaps a prototype, or an announcement designed to hold market away from Canon) at Photokina.

Anyway, given that, I think the "tail" of the M8 production will be fairly short, unlike the case with the mechanical Ms. I wouldn't be surprised if they sold 10,000 before Christmas, 10,000 next year, a few thousand more in the year after that, then tailing off fairly severely as rumors of the M9 start to float about.

On the other hand, I may be speaking from the place where the sun don't shine.

JC

 

[amateriat]

Not buying. Outrageous, ridiculous, and absurd estimated price.

My comments are based on the fact it would be obsolete before I got my Visa bill paid off.

"Obsolete?" At the present rate technology is moving (plus technology yet unknown) the camera could easily be a dinosaur in 2 or 3 years, not 5 as elsewhere suggested. "Obsolete" does not mean worthless but it calls into question the amount of an original recent investment.

Why pick on the M8 and not a D2X, 1Ds or the like? Yes, Leicas are supposed to represent long-term value, but most working pros would expect more than a year or two's serious use out of those other high-priced anvils as well, especially those PJs who went into hock for a pair of 'em. Besides, speaking of PJs, more than a few are still running around with old D1s, since the things are brick scheisshauses in use, which in this instance is usually more important than maximum pixel-count. Based on all this, and the likelihood that a fair number of M8s will be used alongside these digital behamoths for serious work, I think the "value quotient" of this M will remain high for a while.

Technology? What about the "Flutter Shutter" that may be available to consumers in a few years?

http://www.digitalcamerainfo.com/content/Mitsubishi-Electric-Develops-Deblurring-Flutter-Shutter-Camera-Partners-with-MITU-of-Toronto.htm

(link "borrowed" from a message at Nikonians.org)

Well, yes, pretty cool. Won't be sitting on my hands waiting for one. Will you?


- Barrett

 

[ehparis]

Why pick on the M8 and not a D2X, 1Ds or the like?
- Barrett

I'm not a pro. I do know that Nikon is having trouble keeping up with demand for the D2X and has recently introduced the D2Xs upgrade. Can't say about Canon as I don't follow their cameras. Theorizing about whether I'd buy a D2Xs would be a waste of time. I already own (and don't use) an F5 and a handful of Nikon F's. I like taking photos not lifting weights which is why I have D70's instead of the D200 and why I shoot most film in a Leica.

Besides, speaking of PJs, more than a few are still running around with old D1s, since the things are brick scheisshauses in use, which in this instance is usually more important than maximum pixel-count. Based on all this, and the likelihood that a fair number of M8s will be used alongside these digital behamoths for serious work, I think the "value quotient" of this M will remain high for a while. - Barrett

I concur about "value quotient" but think it applies to the film camera and advanced amateur use, not a digital. Most of those D1s have been replaced by D2Hs or D2X (or a Canon). The build quality appears to be good.

Well, yes, pretty cool. Won't be sitting on my hands waiting for one. Will you? - Barrett

Glad you found it interesting. I know I did. It's vaporware until it ships.

Jerry