Leigh Youdale
Well-known
I think it'll drop when they get to a certain age, and start to fail. All electronics have a lifespan, and once they start to be considered unreliable, temperamental, or unserviceable , then I think the value will drop considerably. It's on worth $1200 if it's not a paperweight, and they'll be paperweights eventually, unfortunately.
Not just failure. The self-inflicted depreciation of most digital cameras has more to do with obsolescence than failure rates. And that obsolescence is driven by the marketing and development programs of the manufacturers who have a strong vested interest in shifting current purchasers on to "the next big thing". At the moment, Fuji don't appear to be playing that game - at least to the same extent. If we start seeing X101 and X10.1a models then the game might have changed at that point.
Epson never really got into that game, so although the RD-1 might be seen as a bit outdated it hasn't been impacted by a succession of "you beaut" newer versions that undermine the retained value in the originals.
In the past (and history is no guide to the future, I know) Fuji have been a little quirky in that they have produced several excellent, if under-rated cameras for a time but they also cease production of them without replacing them with an upgraded version. This new X range might be a new approach though.