Hiya Martin,
I couldn't begin to tell you what to do. I think many of us hesitated for quite awhile before buying because of the camera's $3000 cost. Two years ago I plunked down $7200 for a 1Ds and that certainly created a few butterflies in my stomach. Don't answer this question on the forum (but rather in your own head): Can you afford it? If this is not the best time to spend $3000, follow your common sense. If you can afford it and you want it, then go get it. You'll likely lose a lot of money on it if you sell it in a couple of years. But if you keep it, you'll lose nothing. If you keep it a very long time it may even become collectable, but there's no point in counting on that.
You wrote:
"My only reluctance is the cost, and the possibility that one of two things will happen.
1) The camera is not a financial success, and will not be supported in the future"
That's possible although right now Epson tells me they're planning on another model down the line. But you never know. The folks who can work on Voigtlanders may be able to fix parts of the camera and folks who work on digital SLRs may be able to work on the rest. Or maybe you won't need repair. Or maybe Epson will take care of us no matter what. They've been very good so far about replacing cameras with problems or defects.
", or
2) the concept of a digital RF is financially successful, and either a RD-2, Zeiss-Ikon digital, or Leica digital comes along with improved feature sets. I realize that Leica had indicated a digital M in 2006 (even more expensive??), and that Zeiss has hinted at a digital versiion of the new ZI film body."
I know that Leica plans to do that and Zeiss may do it if they can. Can you wait? Do you want to? It's all gambling, really.
Those of us who've bought this camera are largely in uncharted waters. First serious camera for Epson, first digital rangefinder, etc.. Many people think we're crazy to spend $3000 for an R-D1. I couldn't care less. I buy what I want or need if I can afford it. If I don't like it later on I sell it, eat the loss and keep on truckin. I'm one of those people who believes that any of us could be hit by a bus tommorow, so I don't tend to wait around a lot unless I must.
I've made thousands of pictures with the R-D1 already. Some have already earned $$. Some aren't intended to earn anything. A bit of paint has already chipped off my on-off switch - more wear is inevitable even though I take fairly good care of my equipment. I don't really care about the chipped paint or the eventual brassing or whatever happens. Near the end of my warranty I'll check the camera out carefully and if anything's failed I'll send it in to Epson. Otherwise, a person couldn't pry this camera from my hands.
But that's me....and I didn't enjoy the $3000 price any more than anyone else.
Cheers,
Sean