jack palmer
Well-known
Agree completely
QUOTE=bmattock;1242304]I can't wait to SEE more. Lots of people make lots of statements. I have only posted my own opinions based on
what news items I could find. If the truth is otherwise, that's great news - so let's see the products. I hear a lot about how so-and-so is about to come roaring back to life with this or that excellent photographic product any old day now. Some do, most don't. Let's see the products.[/QUOTE]
QUOTE=bmattock;1242304]I can't wait to SEE more. Lots of people make lots of statements. I have only posted my own opinions based on
what news items I could find. If the truth is otherwise, that's great news - so let's see the products. I hear a lot about how so-and-so is about to come roaring back to life with this or that excellent photographic product any old day now. Some do, most don't. Let's see the products.[/QUOTE]
sevo
Fokutorendaburando
At least Agfa Gevaert and Filmotec (the former ORWO) should be capable of producing colour film as well - both still make speciality multi-layer black&white films which build on colour technology. Inoviscoat, as the successor to the latest and best Agfa Ludwigshafen production line, should be able to do so as well.
But as the stock of master rolls for low-grade CN might last for another decade or two, and nobody will pick this moment in time to release a new quality product against the still huge and prestigious Kodak and Fuji product lineup, answers to the question if and who'll return with a colour film might have to be postponed for quite some time.
Olsen
Well-known
Late on Friday evening (here in Oslo) I just watched The Closing Bell at Bloomberg TV. I have been so busy lately, I have not had time to watch the markets. So I was quite shocked to register that the stock markets have been falling all week. Even the ever optimistic Bloomberg TV (like watching some 5 Year Plan Report of the former Sovjet Union), they - reluctantly, had to admit that 'the Dow' is on it's way down 'bellow 10.000'. Which is a significant 'bottom' that could signal a further fall - etc.
Except for the fact that 'the Dow' of today is not comparable to 'the Dow' of, say, late 2009. not the same companies are included. So, 'the Dow' is no empirical study of the Stock Market. It is just a silly line on a paper, - or PC screen. Still, it represents a vital border that seems to be important for traders and investors. - Except for the fact that there hardly are no 'investors' participating on the Stock Market, - but computers 'talking to each other'. - Don't be fooled.
It strikes me that at soon as the US Government and the Fed pulls out some of this TARP money; the market falls. Is it the same money?
Why not invest this money in - something closer to Main Street? What can the US government do to all the unemployed? The unemployment figures of USA (Norway, Sweden, Spain, Germany, UK etc) scare me a lot more than any 'Dow' falling bellow - 5.000 - or 4.000... Æhum. End of rant - for this time....
It's Friday, that's a good thing!
Except for the fact that 'the Dow' of today is not comparable to 'the Dow' of, say, late 2009. not the same companies are included. So, 'the Dow' is no empirical study of the Stock Market. It is just a silly line on a paper, - or PC screen. Still, it represents a vital border that seems to be important for traders and investors. - Except for the fact that there hardly are no 'investors' participating on the Stock Market, - but computers 'talking to each other'. - Don't be fooled.
It strikes me that at soon as the US Government and the Fed pulls out some of this TARP money; the market falls. Is it the same money?
Why not invest this money in - something closer to Main Street? What can the US government do to all the unemployed? The unemployment figures of USA (Norway, Sweden, Spain, Germany, UK etc) scare me a lot more than any 'Dow' falling bellow - 5.000 - or 4.000... Æhum. End of rant - for this time....
It's Friday, that's a good thing!
Roger Hicks
Veteran
Yes, but weather seldom makes a declaration of intent and weather prediction is based on imperfect data gathered about chaotic systems.
In the photo business this is a much better analogy if you don't know the business and the principals than if you do. Some people are more convincing than others, and provide better samples. Them there are the borderline cases. Who here knows about coating lines in Iran, and whether they coat film or only paper?
Those who have good information about who coats what for whom are mostly inclined to keep their knowledge to themselves -- not least because I'm not sure anyone knows exactly who is coating what for whom.
Cheers,
R.
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VinceC
Veteran
Couple of thoughts -- Here in southern Germany, I can buy rolls of color film at the Schlecker convienience shops that seem to be in every neighborhood. Processing, via drop-off at the Schlecker counter to a reasonable-quality Fuji processor, takes about four days. Few extra euro and I also get scans to CD (2MB). For me, that works to keep shooting old cameras. And there are usually a dozen or so print packs for pickup at the very small shop a 5-minute walk away.
Different subject. My first car, in late '70s, was a Chevy Corvair that had been discontinued for a decade. Kind of a quirky '60s rear-engine car with a tiny but intensely loyal following. Befriended a mechanic back in the '70s who pretty much made a living repairing Corvairs because the brand had been abandoned by Chevy and GM. Thirty years later, he's still in business, keeping those 40-to-50-year-old cars on the road. Cars aren't film, but there still are dedicated people who discover a niche and fill it.
Different subject. My first car, in late '70s, was a Chevy Corvair that had been discontinued for a decade. Kind of a quirky '60s rear-engine car with a tiny but intensely loyal following. Befriended a mechanic back in the '70s who pretty much made a living repairing Corvairs because the brand had been abandoned by Chevy and GM. Thirty years later, he's still in business, keeping those 40-to-50-year-old cars on the road. Cars aren't film, but there still are dedicated people who discover a niche and fill it.
Keith
The best camera is one that still works!
This is definitely the best, most infformed, least hostile 'film is dead' thread I ever remember seeing here ... it really is a fascinating read.
bmattocks's constant logic and reasoning and ability to shrug off occasional hostility aimed at him is awsome!
Long live RFF!
bmattocks's constant logic and reasoning and ability to shrug off occasional hostility aimed at him is awsome!
Long live RFF!
wgerrard
Veteran
Dear God! There are people in Germany still driving Corvairs??
We must come to their aid.
Pickett Wilson
Veteran
Ralph Nader aside, I didn't know there were any Corvairs that hadn't rusted out yet!
wgerrard
Veteran
Pickett, I know they rusted, but wasn't the real problem the Corvair's habit of flipping over, even when standing still with the engine off?
Pickett Wilson
Veteran
Nader did a hatchet job on the Corvair. Since the average car on the highway at the time was 12 foot long and weighed two tons, the poor Corvair didn't have a chance!
NickTrop
Veteran
Bill, you do realize, however, that what you're talking about is a company transitioning from oligopolist cometition to a monopoly. In an oligopoly (few suppliers), firms do have considerable power to set prices. Moreso than the digital camera arena that exist in monopolistic competition with far less ability to set prices. This is the very reason, along with the low R&D and marketing expenses and "paid for" fixed assets, that they may not want to kill off the golden goose, rather, keep it on life support for as long as possible.
Also, should Kodak get out of the film business, they would esentially bestow a monopoly on Fuji. They may wish to, strategically, stay in the market for this very reason. Further, monopolies do not charge "whatever they want". AT&T, when it had a monopoly, could have charged $1000 a minute for long distance service. They didn't because the few people willing to pay $1000 a minute (and their would have been some) would have resulted in far lower revenues. So, there is a "sweet spot" regarding pricing when you're a monopoly where both revenue and profit are both maximized and that sweet spot tends to be inline with reasonable margins, otherwise it prompts more entrants into the area, or you don't stay a monopoly very long since no one can afford your service and you're out of business. Further, as a public corp, they would not want to necessarily maximise profit on film output if the price increases negatively impacts their top line revenue from the division.
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bmattock
Veteran
I agree with your logic, but not the outlook for continued film sales. If the rate of decline in film sales continues, the 'life support' has a very disappointing prognosis. "As long as possible" may amount to a couple of years at max. They've probably got something close to that amount in the retail channel already.
NickTrop
Veteran
You're bearish on film, Bill, is what it comes down to. Look at it this way, there are three major producers of black and white film. That film production is not supported by large runs of black and white film to support the theatrical film business since the mid-60's, yet it has remained viable with just the educational, hobbyist, and fine arts market. It doesn't even have a lingering "old" consumer base who don't want to be bothered with new technologies and it doesn't have any real presence of disposable cameras. It's still manufactured, color didn't kill it, digital didn't kill it. Point is, it doesn't have the varied user base of color film, represents a fraction of the color film market, yet it has survived.
bmattock
Veteran
Yeah, I think B&W has a healthier prognosis than color film. I suspect that the two channels are somewhat decoupled. There is some cross-over, however. Mainly in the packaging and marketing channels. Not full cross-over, just some.
NickTrop
Veteran
Respectfully disagree. The future of color film has been already been told by black and white. Point I was making is that black and white has survived, admittedly with further consolidation likely, without: 1. a meaningful presence in the disposable film market 2. the huge runs required to supply film production and release prints, 3. the remaining base of technologically challenged film "Luddites" (okay, older folks who want nothing to do with learning computers or technology like my 80 year old father), 4. a retail presence, 5. ubiquitous processing facilities. Black and white has none of that, yet it's still produced. Must be because companies are still able to make profit from it. Each of these (1 - 5) color film markets will certainly dissipate over time leaving color film with the same user base, essentially, that black and white has been able to survive on. Since black and white has survived without any of these markets, it's likely that color film will too albeit with fewer players - possibly only one. Further, the markets 1-5 will take more than a couple years to disappear... Further, further there are valid strategic reasons that I initially laid out that we both agree on that preclude Kodak especially from getting out of the color film market and killing its golden goose. In fact, part of Kodak's issue I would argue is that it's tough to make a profit in a monopolistic competition environment, which is what consumer digital is in *****s, especially as a later entrant. But oligopolies like film are nice. It's the same reason Cosina continues to produce film cameras, and only film cameras. Has the market all to itself.
Pickett Wilson
Veteran
I don't know what Cosina's film cameras sales are like these days, but I suspect they are also on a steady decline, especially after a good 10 year run with RF's (or have already declined significantly and have leveled off at some subsistence level). But I still say that film's demise will be sudden and "unexpected" (at least by the consumers of film), rather than a slow decline to oblivion. 35mm and 120 roll film are not the "film" that is continuing to bring Kodak, for example, some profit in that area. It's LF film used in processes that are rapidly transitioning to digital whose sales are propping up the stuff we shoot.
David Hughes
David Hughes
Hi,
Many thanks for a great list.
Just in case people are unaware (nothing like stating the obvious - mostly because we all assume everyone else knows it) a good source in the UK is www.silverprint.co.uk who sell almost everything you could imagine and more.
Regards, David
HHPhoto
Well-known
Dear Roger,
last Photokina I have talked to all film manufacturers and film distributors that had a booth there. I had very interesting and encouraging talks.
Film manufacturers see a solid niche market for color negative, color slide and BW film in the future.
The main film users in the future will be:
- enthusiasts and engaged hobby photographers; people who are sitting in front of the computer all day long at their jobs and want a hand craft alternative in their leisure time
- the educational market
- lots of professionals want film as an alternative for special cases, they don't want a digital monopol in picture taking
- the arts market
- young photographers who have started with digital and are curios about film and want to learn about it
- photographers who want to be different, and not going with the digital mass
- the lomographic market, which is the strongest increasing photo market worldwide (sale volumes are increasing by 50% p.a.); it has become a mass market with more than 1 million users at this time.
And yes, I will be at Photokina this year.
Best regards,
Jan
rodt16s
Well-known
Film will eventually (if it already hasn't) have the same niche that Vinyl occupies in the Hi-Fi World.. Vinyl was destined for the museum back in the 80's, but today pressing plants are opening back up & the new Kid (CD) is being replaced by downloads. As long as there are enough enthusiasts groups, someone will supply that market, it just may not be a large multi-national but an enterprising small outfit who has bought the equipment and the tech from them. That's life.
KM-25
Well-known
Thank god for some more outside information, this is pretty much what I have found out too, for verification, talk to Marv Keller at Freestyle and Scott Sheppard at Inside Analog Photo.
Hello Bill,
then it is time tow for you to admit your wrongness concerning Agfa....
In fact, lots of your statements were wrong.
You said that there is no new film coating plant. That is wrong. There is a complete new, modern emulsioning and coating plant in Monheim, Germany.
They started production last year.
This company is 'InovisCoat', www.inoviscoat.de
InovisCoat was founded by former Agfa Leverkusen/Germany employees. All InovisCoat employees are former Agfa engineers and technicians.
InovisCoat bought the Coating machine 'K' from the AgfaPhoto insolvency, scaled it down and modernized it, moved with it from Leverkusen to Monheim and started production in April 2009. In a complete new, modern plant.
Former AgfaPhoto in Leverkusen had two big coating machines, one of them was bought by InovisCoat.
By the way, the other machine was not bought by the Koreans as you said. They bought a machine for making film base material (Triazetat), not a coating machine.
The coating machine at InovisCoat is now called "Phönix", and they can coat lots of different materials with it. Currently they are making BW paper, color negative paper and BW films. They are making both the MCC and the MCP paper for Adox/Fotoimpex. Adox has no own coating capabilities, InovisCoat is doing it for them (but Adox is currently building up a slitting and packaging facility http://www.adoxfotowerke.de/Manufaktur/Foto-Manufaktur.html ).
And they have done first test runs of APX 400 emulsions. It is planned to offer the market this old Agfa emulsion as Adox AP 400 this year. APX 100 will follow next year as Adox AP 100.
And InovisCoat is also running some coatings for the second german film manufacturer Filmotec www.filmotec.de
Filmotec has made the Rollei Pan 25 (sold also under label Adox Pan 25) and Rollei Ortho 25 (sold also under label Adox Ortho 25).
So yes, there is a kind of new Agfa: The former Agfa (Leverkusen) engineers with their new company InovisCoat. Agfa stuff, Agfa coating machine, Agfa paper (MCC, MCP, sold as Adox) and Agfa film (APX 100&400, sold as Adox).
And there is even more, a kind of second revival of original Agfa film from Agfa-Gevaert in Belgium (www.agfa.com). They are still in business and producing lots of color negative, slide and BW films (by the way, much higher BW film volumes than Ilford).
By the cooperation of Agfa-Gevaert with Maco Photo Products in Germany (brand Rollei-Film) the market for 'normal' photographers has now much more Agfa film options than ever in history:
Agfa Copex Rapid (=Spur DSX 64)
Rollei ATP
Rollei Retro 80S (Agfa Aviphot Pan 80)
Rollei Superpan 200 (Agfa Aviphot Pan 200)
Rollei Retro 400S (Agfa Aviphot Pan 400)
Rollei IR (Agfa Aviphot Pan 400)
Forget the AgfaPhoto Holding and their distributor Lupus Imaging. They rape the name AgfaPhoto. It is just relabelling: The AgfaPhoto color negative films are from Ferrania, the color slide film Precisa is from Kodak (Elitechrome 100), and APX 100 and 400 is old stock from the last production run in Leverkusen.
The photo film market in general: It is not as bad as some say. Not all film types have decreasing rates of 30% a year. That is only cheap consumer color negative film.
I have talked with all the film manufacturers at last Photokina. All of them said that BW film has stabilised, decreasing of sales numbers is already stopped. Kodak said their BW film sales had an increase by 8%.
The decrease of professional film (CN and Slide) is slowing down, some film types have already stabilised. LF film has an increase by 30%.
By the way: Do you know the most succesful photo company of the last years?
No, it is not a digital company. It is a company totally dedicated to film, the Lomographic Society in Vienna www.lomography.com
They have growth rates of 50% year by year! Whereas most digital manufacturers are already facing decraesing sales numbers (first signs of market saturation), last year 10-20% less sales at most digital manufacturers.
In the meanwhile lomography has become an established part of photography with over 1 million lomographers worldwide, and the number is rapidly increasing. LSI is opening new lomograpy gallery stores every four months worldwide, the last in London, Rio and Berlin.
They had the most impressive and one of the biggest booths at last Photokina in Cologne. The slogan "the future is analogue" was written in big letters over the booth. They are attracting especially young photographers to film photography.
They sell some of their own special films (slide and redscale films) in 7 (!) digit sales numbers.
Lomography has become a mass market, especially in China where LSI is very engaged and active.
Film will be there for decades to come. We have over 1 billion people taking photographs worldwide, and this number is growing because of the economoc growth in the developing countries. Even if only 1 percent, or even only 0.5 percent of them will use film, it remains a market of several million users worldwide. Enough to keep film alive.
And film will not be much pricier in the future, because it is possible to make film in smaller volumes at reasonable prices: In 2010 photo film sales will be at 20% of the niveau of the record year 1999.
And what happened with prices during this decade? If you consider inflation, film is cheaper now than ten years ago (at least here in Germany
Look at the new Adox MCC and MCP: Produced in much smaller olumes, but no higher prices than the original Agfa paper from 2005.
Or have a look at Foma films: They have only a fraction of the production volumes of Kodak, but the prices are much lower, same with Efke or Lucky films.
And Adox AP 100&400 films will be in the same price range as Agfa APX in 2005. And AP 400 will be produced in extremely small volumes of only 3000m² per year. That is a niche in the niche in the niche production. Yes, now we see that it is possible.
In 1981 the first still video camera was introduced, the Mavica. The "experts" said that till 1990 film will be dead.
I was also on Photokina 2002: All the "experts" say that in 2010 there will no film be available any more, or if then only at outrageous prices.
Now the same people say that in 2015 or 2020 film will be dead. I bet that in 2020 we will be sitting here, with lots of different film types around at reasonable prices, and the same people will say that in 2025 or 2030 film will be dead........
"Same procedure as last year Miss Sophie? Same procedure as every year James...."
Best regards,
Jan
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