My Dad’s M8.2

[NathanJD]

I had recently read the thread called “Just How Much Is Too Expensive ?” and it got me thinking about the life expectancy of a digital Leica. Forget about keeping up with the cutting edge and ensuring that you have the most pixels, newest hardware etc… part of the pull of the Leica love story to me is the longevity of these lovely old cameras and the fact that some of you guys are using cameras today that are old enough to have been bought for my grandfather for his 10th birthday. In fact ‘a camera for life’ is a much mentioned philosophy around here and every Leica model so far is timeless in as much as it doesn’t matter that they don’t have auto focus, film ISO recognition, built in automatic advance or even for the most part exposure meters because, without sounding overly romantic, they don’t need it and many people would step back in horror at the thought of such things defiling a legend (‘if that’s what you want from a camera buy a Canon/Nikon/whole myriad of other mass produced monkeys’).

So on that score my question is in 10, 20, 30, 40 years time are our descendents going to be on some forum equivalent talking about how they ‘love to shoot dad’s old Leica M8.2 and that all subsequent dM’s simply aren’t for them’ or will they all go the same way as all the rest of today’s electronics and head for the great scrap yard in the sky?

And if the latter is true then are M8’s, M8.2’s and dM’s to come simply throw away folly of the rich and professional or is there still some life left in the old notion ‘my Leica today is my Leica for life and even my kid’s Leica once I’m gone’?

 

[Keith]

I'd be very surprised if there were any working M8's around in forty years to be honest ... having one perform trouble free for an extended period seems unlikely ... something will go wrong at some stage if the camera is used constantly. Maybe if you got one and vacuum sealed it and kept it in a climate controlled environment it would quite likely function ok in forty years but will you still be able to get an SD card ... a replacement battery and so on.

The cost of repairs to an M8 is very high now and I can image that in ten years even, any major part replacement will be prohibitively expensive ... plus there won't be people like DAG or Youxin Ye in the wings wanting to work on them.

As much as the M8 is a truly amazing camera I think it is marked for the same destiny as all other complex electronic devices ... landfill/paperweight/conversation piece, who knows ... but not a functioning usable tool for digital photography!

 

[TheHub]

... or will they all go the same way as all the rest of today’s electronics and head for the great scrap yard in the sky?

I'm almost certain they'll end up like that. Behold one of my reasons for giving up digital.

 

[infrequent]

the digital world has many benefits, one significant being "convenience". unfortunately, "permanence" is not one of the attributes. but that hasn't stopped leica from promoting it as "a future-proof investment" on their website.

 

[NathanJD]

the digital world has many benefits, one significant being "convenience". unfortunately, "permanence" is not one of the attributes. but that hasn't stopped leica from promoting it as "a future-proof investment" on their website.

Hmmm, bold words from Leica's marketing team there in my opinion, and indeed words that are bandied around wildly by the sales executives in many, if not every, electronics company because it’s a sticking plaster for a common ailment - electronic technology doesn’t last and there isn’t a lot of room on the cutting edge – it’ll die or be replaced very quickly and the statement ‘future’ is not absolute.

Originating from the same boardroom born sales speak as the likes of ‘proactive’, ‘future-proof’ is a pithy marketing tool designed to be easily misunderstood to mean ‘will stand the test of time’ when really it means ‘we’re not going to tell you how quickly this technology will become obsolete because you will be disappointed and we may lose your custom’.

 

[yanidel]

Anybody knows what is the "life expectancy" of a sensor ? IMO, this is probably the most critical part in the cameras overall durability. I still one a radio/Cd player from 1989, 20 years and still working with LCD screen and so on. I know cameras are more complicated, but apart of technology related issues (SD cards), is it really impossible for a M8 to last 20 years at least ?

 

[Keith]

You do have to wonder how long any digital camera is going to last ... I've had a D70 Nikon since they first came out and there is no reason to sell it realistically because it's worth very little. I'll be very curious to see how long it lasts ... it's never done a thing wrong unlike my M8 which still has the occasional heart stopping freeze every now and then ... one day, removing and refitting the battery just may not revive it!

 

[NathanJD]

Having suffered the loss of one of our laptops recently a mere 2 years into it's chequered life I truly know the feeling. I have a D200 and a D40 and i don't have the money or the inclination to replace or upgrade either of them - while they work they are beautiful cameras and i don't need any more functionality than they provide, but one day they will die and i'll cry - thank god for my film cameras and their archaic moving parts!

 

[jamest]

Also, I think one reason for film camera to last all these years is that although the film format is the same, the emulsion on it has changed and advanced. So although the camera hasn't changed, the "sensor" has. Now, in 20 years, would you still want to use a 10MP camera or use JPEG compressions, or find a SD card? that I don't know... It's almost like asking do you want to use the 1MP camera you bought 7 years ago.

james

 

[Petroleum V. Nasby]

I think eventually, the old "still" camera concept will start to die out but it's going to be a process of at least a decade, and probably much longer.

But I don't think you're even going to recognize imaging devices as CAMERAS 10-15 years from now. The whole concept and shape of the machines are going to alter drastically.

I think continuous, high speed capture streams, with resolution FAR higher than the current state of the art videos, will become commonplace. You'll then merely pluck hi-rez stills from the stream, possibly at many angles, maybe even with three dimensionality reconstructed by the processors.

Lots of interesting things to come in our lifetimes. I don't even think I can imagine what imaging devices are going to look like. Probably wearable or implanted, and you can capture every single moment of your life, and rewind to check anything.

To answer your question, I don't think many current digital cameras will be in use 15-20 years from now. Think of attempting to use the 1st Apple Quicktake for anything serious today. It was regarded as a wonder when it came out. Or the Sony digital Mavica.

I predict there will be MANY DLSRs introduced that will use retro manual focus lens mounts for older SLRs. There are tens of millions of these lenses around and a big crossover hobbyist market exists who want to use them.

When you buy an electronic object, you are paying for a FUNCTION rather than a beautifully made OBJECT that can be saved and collected. You have to disassociate your thinking from the past.

The M8 LOOKS like a mechanical Leica, but it is not. It is a simulacrum of a mechanical Leica M camera. It's an expensive throwaway box. When the function is obsolete, so is the camera.

Several years from now, when M8's are selling for well under $1000 and Leica wants $2500 to fix some minor defect, they will be cannibalized by third party repairmen or turned into bookends.

How many fancy StarTac phones that cost $1200 new are around? You can't give them away free anymore. The name "Leica" doesn't make their cameras any different. They are "functions", not "cameras".

 

[NathanJD]

Also, I think one reason for film camera to last all these years is that although the film format is the same, the emulsion on it has changed and advanced. So although the camera hasn't changed, the "sensor" has. Now, in 20 years, would you still want to use a 10MP camera or use JPEG compressions, or find a SD card? that I don't know... It's almost like asking do you want to use the 1MP camera you bought 7 years ago.

james

I see your point James, but this forum is testiment to the want to use outdated equipment (to use a dirty word). Some people see the romance in it or even see a quality to it unachievable in different ways. and today's m8 could well be tomorrow's m3. who knows.

 

[NathanJD]

simulacrum.. beautiful word! thank you Petroleum V! I don't think anyone can deny your logic there and i agree - mainstream image capturing technology will invariably change but 2d still photography is an art, as is painting, i don't personally think it's faddy enough to die out, there may have been those who believed that photography would be the death of portrait painting? just throwing it out there

 

[Petroleum V. Nasby]

Oh, sure, there will still be "classic" cameras and people who like to use them.

I'm sure film and processing will continue to be produced, but using silver based media will be a rare and expensive hobby.

 

[infrequent]

i was thinking the same! the only other time i have seen the use of 'simulacrum' is in a neal stephenson novel.

 

[SR1]

The average life expectancy of electronics is around 15 years and I would expect to get at least this from my M8. After that it will doubtless be repairable from the mentioned canabilism of those M8's deemed by their owners as beyond repair. This of course also applies to the M7.

As the circuit boards will doubtless use surface mount components, repairing them will not be possible.

Cameras are not like other electronic equipment as they rely on the mechanics of lenses and therefore I don't see quality camera/lens combinations reducing in size much beyond where they are now.

The big step forward will be in liquid lenses that operate on the same principle as our eyes and these will result in completely new camera designs. We may not even call them cameras.

Leica have a big problem in that they have built a business on slow evolution of their products. This builds a customer following, allows their products to develop into robust and reliable cameras as well helping to maintain a strong residual value.

The move to digital imaging destroyed that business model. They could of course keep making the M8 and their market share would continue to fall until it was unsustainable. Ideally they would stay with film and develop a niche for purely mechanical cameras.

A similar thing happened to the Swiss watch industry in the 1960s thanks to Seikos introduction of the quartz watch to the mass market. Rolex even produced an Oysterquartz (ever heard of it?) but their business was built on slow evolution and they struggled. Many of the old watch houses didn't survive.

Today thay all market the beauty in purely mechanical devices as they could not complete and they had one advantage that Leica doesn't have. There are no consumables in mechanical watches.

Film ironically will be the downfall of Leica. First of all no one really wants the hassle of developing it (present company excepted). How long will it be availalbe from the high street?

I am sure Leica would dearly love to have followed the watch industy's path, unfortunately they don't have that option.

I think that in 40 years kids will be using Dads M8. They will be a curiosity of a bygone era, and they will be cherished for that very reason.

However I don't think Leica will be making M cameras in 40 years

SR

 

[NathanJD]

Oh, sure, there will still be "classic" cameras and people who like to use them.

I'm sure film and processing will continue to be produced, but using silver based media will be a rare and expensive hobby.

Possibly so. There are signs of that effect even today but testament to the longevity of the art are the eternally high prices of the mater tools of the trade such as the Leicas, Roliflexes (rolifli?) and Hasselblads.

i was thinking the same! the only other time i have seen the use of 'simulacrum' is in a neal stephenson novel.

I know what you mean, it's the kind of well used word I’d expect to see cropping up in one of my favorite author - Iain M. Banks

 

[Petroleum V. Nasby]

Actually, the word was popularized by William Gibson. Before that, it had been used mainly in academic technical texts.

 

[Petroleum V. Nasby]

Actually, if you follow eBay, classic V series Hasselblad prices have been dropping precipitously in the last 6 or 7 months. Huge price drops. If you shop carefully, you can get great equipment for a fraction of the former market value.

That's why I've been buying Hasselblad lately. Everything I wanted. The only crazy prices are digital backs for V series.

When these come down to earth, I'll grab one.

(this is with 120 film expired in 2000, shot this weekend. I got it for 60 cents per roll). Hasselblad 500cm, 60mm Distagon. Konica Centurian ISO 400. Scanned with Microtek i800 and Vuescan.

Possibly so. There are signs of that effect even today but testament to the longevity of the art are the eternally high prices of the mater tools of the trade such as the Leicas, Roliflexes (rolifli?) and Hasselblads.



I know what you mean, it's the kind of well used word I’d expect to see cropping up in one of my favorite author - Iain M. Banks books

 

[NathanJD]

The average life expectancy of electronics is around 15 years and I would expect to get at least this from my M8. After that it will doubtless be repairable from the mentioned canabilism of those M8's deemed by their owners as beyond repair. This of course also applies to the M7.

As the circuit boards will doubtless use surface mount components, repairing them will not be possible.

Cameras are not like other electronic equipment as they rely on the mechanics of lenses and therefore I don't see quality camera/lens combinations reducing in size much beyond where they are now.

The big step forward will be in liquid lenses that operate on the same principle as our eyes and these will result in completely new camera designs. We may not even call them cameras.

Leica have a big problem in that they have built a business on slow evolution of their products. This builds a customer following, allows their products to develop into robust and reliable cameras as well helping to maintain a strong residual value.

The move to digital imaging destroyed that business model. They could of course keep making the M8 and their market share would continue to fall until it was unsustainable. Ideally they would stay with film and develop a niche for purely mechanical cameras.

A similar thing happened to the Swiss watch industry in the 1960s thanks to Seikos introduction of the quartz watch to the mass market. Rolex even produced an Oysterquartz (ever heard of it?) but their business was built on slow evolution and they struggled. Many of the old watch houses didn't survive.

Today thay all market the beauty in purely mechanical devices as they could not complete and they had one advantage that Leica doesn't have. There are no consumables in mechanical watches.

Film ironically will be the downfall of Leica. First of all no one really wants the hassle of developing it (present company excepted). How long will it be availalbe from the high street?

I am sure Leica would dearly love to have followed the watch industy's path, unfortunately they don't have that option.

I think that in 40 years kids will be using Dads M8. They will be a curiosity of a bygone era, and they will be cherished for that very reason.

However I don't think Leica will be making M cameras in 40 years

SR

Phew this thread is picking up some momentum

Interesting views SR! I’m really glad I started this thread I agree with your observations about the similarity to the watch making market – a film Leica I suppose is like a Zippo lighter, Victorinox Swiss army knife and mechanical Rolex – it’s the continuation and slow evolution of an undeniably ‘right’ product that does what its supposed to period. Thank god Leica are keeping the fires of film camera production burning bright.

I can see film leaving the high street but thanks to modern technology bringing us the web it’s no longer such a problem if it does, and I admit that I don’t by film (at least B&W film) on the high street even. Who knows – in the face of extinction the future may bring us a corporate buyout where by a film camera manufacturer like Leica buy out a then failing ‘specialist market’ based film producer like say Ilford?

 

[Petroleum V. Nasby]

There are quite a number of techs that can do board/component level diagnoses and repair of motherboards, etc.

Right now, the market is so small I doubt it would be cost effective.

I think the used market for M8's are going to drop immediately. The dilettantes are going to HAVE to have the M8.2 and they will be dumping their original M8's or trading them in. That's probably 1/2 of the market.

I predict original M8's at around $2400 used in a few months. The deal-breaker is going to be the warranty. No warranty spells disaster for a used M8. If a third party could offer reasonable repairs for the electronics, the price would go back up. It's probably a hair-pulling, nightmarish job though.

Dealing with sourcing boards and parts, not to mention non-technical-minded Leica-crazies is not worth what one could charge for the repairs.

"Several years from now, when M8's are selling for well under $1000 and Leica wants $2500 to fix some minor defect, they will be cannibalized by third party repairmen or turned into bookends."

I just had a long exchange with DAG about the possibility of making various FrankenLeica combinations and just about anything I suggested was possible for as little as $300-$600 in parts/labor. Cannibalizing old M6s and M3s is and will undoubtedly continue to be a necessity for keeping film Ms going but as interest in film Ms declines, the inventory for "parts cameras" should grow exponentially while also becoming cheaper. If Leica goes under as a company, the market will become flooded with skilled M repairmen looking to ply their former trade as moonlighters or full-on, next-gen DAGs; clock and watch repairmen will probably get into the action as well.

I don't see the same scheme playing out with M8s. Even if a particular part cannot be sourced to revive a mechanical M, a replacement can be machined for the right price. On the other hand, a dead motherboard is a dead motherboard. I also doubt Leica will ever see the type of sales volume that would lead to a sub-$1,000 M8. "Parts M8s" would not be much different than "Parts M3s" in that most of their salvage value would be in mechanical components, not electronic ones.