Nikon and Global Economic Decline

[larmarv916]

Ok..let me offer some additional data...recently a used similar SP system deal was reflected via the internet...heavily used asking over 100K USD. Of course no buyers. You see the recent SP or S3 commemorative editions 4500 USD and up. On a regular basis...not anywhere as good as a orignal..right? Well Lot number 518 a "original" mint Olympic edition "kit" so that means the Olympic 50 F1.4 lens..sold for 2200 Euro..a starting bid of 1800 Euro.

Tell me how that is expensive or high priced ? Did I forget a B+ rating

Or lets look at lot 519...a complete Olympic set "new in box !! All the goodies you would expect, case, caps, boxes...for a new unused 1964 matching numbers camera. High bid was 5000 Euro's We see worn over rated examples for many times double on Ebay.

A new in box S3 "Year 2000 Edition" went unsold at minimum bid of 1300 Euros !! Wow that sure is high priced...get real.

One of the best example of "low ball" bidding as a selling price was a Nikon F1 50mm "External Mount" rated at B/A photos show it as more a mint- Selling price was 1600 Euros !! Even on Camera Quest's current offering of a similar lens...puts this one at about 1/2 the cost. And Iam not complaing about the Camera Quest pricing. That is dirt cheap.

Some really rare lenses a pair of Zunow F1.1 50 mm lenses sold for well below previous auction prices of recent and below those found else where in europe and asia. One sold for only the minimum bid 1800 Euro and was mint. The other sold for 2400 Euros..later version.


The Lecia cameras and lenses were also not strong sellers either. A M3 "pre-Model" earlier than "all" 00-XX series from 1952 and predates all serial number examples... sold for 60,000 Euro's Now that sounds like a lot but it is over 30,000 Euros from later version of non historical documentation M3 that was sold only a few months ago!

A mint M3 DS outfit with 50 Cron and 35 F3.5 "ron" with glasses, filters hoods and a meter ( not good ) sold for....680 Euro's on a minimum bid of 500 ! Way less than you would pay for a body of that model and quality on Ebay or other commerical shops.

The underlying issue here keeps cropping up over and over that prices are heading lower and the number of unsold lots is going up fast.

New " Ein Stuck" M6 outift in box warranity cards, sold for 3,000 Euro..or less than 4,000 USD !

But to really drive home how bad things got a Noctilux rate A- or mint - was sold for 2400 Euro's or 3000 USD A Noctilux 1.2 with caps and hood sold for 6000 Euros.....have you seen the prices for the new models or the 0.95 model.

While "Polly Anna" mentality is still following the "think happy" the harder reality is that the slide is real enough for Ebay to report drastic drops in activity and sales revenues. Collectable items have lost there luster.

It's like understanding that stocks heading lower due to lack of spending and lack of earnings. Sure your going to get low PE ratio's when a stock on the floor...just a cheap stock of a company that may not surrvive the recession.

 

[NIKON KIU]

Here is another little tid bit...our friends in Vienna, at WestLicht had another major auction over the weekend. The results we not good. A S2 "Black" original that came with a F1 / 50 internal mount. A lens rated at B+ should have gone for big money...not. Starting price was 5000 Euro's....sold for 7,000 Euros. Now that many not seem terrible...it was not close to expectations of the auction house. but another good example of how "soft" the serious collector market is was to watch a original S3 black, w 50 F1.4 Of near mint quality, in box and all the goodies. Only sell for 5500 Euros , after a starting bid of 3500 Eu.

The 1958 "New" in Box "SP Black" with hood, boxes , instructions and etc only fetched 7000 Euro's ! But real dissapointment of the nikon camera group was a complete a complete SP "system" kit...all new in box !

This "kit" was a SP chrome with "titanum" shutter all the cases boxes and so on. But when you know it had the following lenses.... 25mm, with 25 finder, cases, caps. A 35 F1.8 and a 35 F2.8..all hoodes, cases caps. A 2.8 50 to go with the original F1.4 50 on the SP, as well as a 85m F2, 105 f2.5, 135 mm F 3.5. ALL were new in box with cases, hoods, caps and so on. A turly high value system stlye opportunity. But it the high was only...7,500 Eu or under 12K USD, not counting fees...of course. But all the same starting bid was only 5,000 Euros ???



All the best....Laurance

Laurance,
The late Nikon I with the Box did over 22,000 euros!! Not including commisions!!!
All those numbers were pretty strong by today's standards. I see Mint SP's in the Box NOT selling for $3500 in Yahoo Japan Auctions!
The only price that seemed low to me was that micro Nikkor collar!

Kiu

 

[jonmanjiro]

The official announcement:

http://www.nikon.co.jp/main/jpn/whatsnew/2009/0526_01.htm

 

[wblanchard]

Find a way to cut the prices of the bodies (namely the d3x) and I bet they'd be selling more...

 

[larmarv916]

I track the auctions at WestLicht in particular because Christies and other have basicly dropped out of the camera auction niche. Aberation of the Nikon I that sold for 22,000 Euro's such as only as it appears that this is a sole example where logic between bidders went wild. But rather that prices are down dramaticly from levels from 06-07. when a comparison of auction prices was on many items...30%-50% higher. That what was seen in this auction.

However...you can expect to see a devaluation in the Yen as all of the major Japanese industry...export driven. Must get pricing with a dramatic advantage. So Japan is locked into the currency war...and a return to Yen exchanage levels of the mid 1980's...will be required in order to save. consumer dependant companies like Nikon, Sony, Honda, and so on.

Just to drive home how bad things in Japan are...NPR ( National Public Radio) today did a special feature on Toyota. Toyota made it clear that they have laid off so many workers...that Toyota now has about the same number of workers as it did in......1938 ! Yes you heard it right.

So we may see real price cuts in those D3 camera bodies. Remember that in the mid 80's the yen got to 250 to the US Dollar. Think what that would mean for prices in the Sterling and Euro ?? For collectors a general softening of prices is going to excellerate as the collecting craze losses it's broader buyer base.

This is like watching the collector car market of the late 80's and early 90's where a 12.5 million USD Ferrari "250LM" sold 4 years later for barely 850K USD at auction in London ! That market took years to bounce back. But even the collector car market is really hitting the skids. So who knows.

 

[Al Kaplan]

If you're thinking about buying Leicas or other film cameras to use then now isn't a bad time at all, even if the prices havn't hit bottom yet. The last period of dirt cheap Leica prices was about forty to fifty years ago during "The Great SLR Revolution".

 

[jonmanjiro]

War is good for business

War is good for business

However...you can expect to see a devaluation in the Yen as all of the major Japanese industry...export driven. Must get pricing with a dramatic advantage. So Japan is locked into the currency war...and a return to Yen exchanage levels of the mid 1980's...will be required in order to save. consumer dependant companies like Nikon, Sony, Honda, and so on.

The situation is indeed getting rather grim in Japan. So much so that the government is going to ditch a self-imposed ban on arms exports. Uggggghhh :bang:

http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/industry_sectors/engineering/article6355433.ece

From The Times, May 25, 2009
Japan's big guns prepare to rejoin global arms industry
Leo Lewis, Asia Business Correspondent

The huge engineering and technological might of Japan may be poised for a new lease of life as the country prepares to ditch a self-imposed ban on arms exports that was introduced in the mid-1970s.

The controversial decision, which is likely to encounter bitter opposition from the country's mainly pacifist middle classes, could deliver significant economic benefits to Japan and lead to a realignment in the global defence industry.

A ruling party MP said that the greatest significance would be the conversion of Japan's robotics industry from civilian to military use as the world's defense spending is directed to remote-control hardware, such as drone aircraft.

Lifting or toning-down the 33-year old embargo would unleash some of the world's most advanced heavy engineering companies into the international weapons market, one of the few areas of manufacturing where Japan's immense technical resources have, for purely political reasons, not produced a dominant global player.

The expected move, which government insiders said may be announced by Taro Aso, the Prime Minister, before the summer, is likely to begin by relaxing the ban to allow Japanese companies to work on joint projects with American and European defence manufacturers, whose products could then be sold internationally.

To date, the single exception to the ban came as a dispensation in 2005 that allowed Japan to work with US companies on a missile defence system viewed as critical while North Korea continues to flex its military muscles.

Japan sees itself as a logical target for the nuclear-armed Pyongyang regime and has spent about ￡5 billion on the missile defence shield jointly developed with the United States.

Joint production and the scope to profit from a share of international sales could draw more Japanese companies into the defence industry and, the Government hopes, bring procurement costs down. Yet as the ban loosens further, government defence insiders say that Japan could be propelled into the top ranks of arms manufacturers.

Even with their sales limited strictly to the domestic market, several of the country's biggest engineering conglomerates, such as Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI), already feature among the world's top 30 biggest military hardware suppliers. MHI already produces a fighter jet and a broad range of naval hardware.

Despite being rigidly observed, Japan's 1976 ban on arms exports was never passed as a law. It can, therefore, be reversed or amended by the sitting prime minister, without requiring passage through parliament. Such a process would almost certainly have seen the move blocked by the Democratic Party of Japan, the centre-left opposition. The wording of the new statement is expected to ensure that exports do not end up in the hands of countries that support or sponsor terrorism.

The decision to relax the ban is understood to have been under consideration for several years and comes as Japan's mainstay export industries ? electronics and automotive ? buckle under the pressure of the worldwide spending slump.

Mr Aso's Government, meanwhile, is struggling to reverse an unprecedented shrinkage of the economy while the strong yen has made Japanese goods even less price-competitive against South Korean and Chinese products. Defence analysts have long maintained that Japanese industry, once freed from its ban, could quickly rival British, American and European players. Japan's prowess in miniaturised motors, robotics and control systems would be especially competitive.

Japan's existing defence industry has been crafted around the peculiarities of its own military arrangements. Article 9 of the country's postwar Constitution declares that Japan will renounce war as a sovereign right and that "land, sea and air forces, as well as other war potential, will never be maintained".

However, as the Cold War deepened, Japan identified a giant loophole in the Constitution and allowed itself to build up very considerable "self-defence forces", whose equivalent of navy, army and air force are now among the world's most expensively and extensively equipped.

However, the prospect of being limited to the domestic market persuaded many Japanese companies that the effort and the research and development spending involved in producing military hardware would not give good returns and many dropped out altogether.

 

[jke]

To quote Gertrude Stein, "There's no there there."

 

[larmarv916]

Thanks to "Jon" for the intense and factual story from the Times. But now with North Korea being so threatening... I expect a policy announcement from Japan next week that will shock most of all the Chinese. As a result china will be jerking on the "choke chain" they have on N. Korea.

As for the Maranello Auctions staged by RM..they have been carefully managed and very productive media events for sure. I would rather look at the vast army of unsold high end luxury cars or repo cars which keep swelling.
The turn back rate or non delivered...but custom ordered luxury and sports cars. Mostly from Europe...have pricing that is dropping like a stone. don't also forget over the last few years there have been several cases of "schilling" at major auto auctions around the world. Prearranged and staged sales for auctions to create hype.

The tide is going out on "Collectables" and as such they lack liquidity in both selling and buying. So price adjustments are extreme. In anything. But average prices for "normal" production items are soft and getting softer. Currency rates affect the preception of value...so while a price in dollars can seem like it is going up. The dollar is value is affected and Euro or Sterling is almost unchanged. Sterling is now back to 1.60 a massive jump in just a couple of months. But the dollar effectivly dropped backward for that to happen !! The roller coaster is in the end controlled by cut backs in consumer sending....the next contraction both inside Japan and around the world will see consumer spending come to a near stand still. Real estate is dropping like a stone still...the best the media can say is that it is not going down as fast as before. Wow ! what a releif that is. donw is down.

I do not collect only shoot...If I find a lens that will give me a better creative product I try to get it. It it works I keep it...if not I dump it.

 

[larmarv916]

Bloomberg released a excellent story on deflation in Japan this morning. Here are a few examples from that story. Titled "Japan be slipping into defaltion, Record output Gap Shows" !

Trade Gap: The output gap, a measure of the balance between demand and supply in the economy, fell 8.5 percent in the three months ended March 31, the Cabinet Office said in Tokyo, the biggest decline since the government started tracking the data in 1980. A separate report today showed that "wages" slid 2.5 percent, extending their longest losing streak since 2003.

Falling Prices
Consumer prices excluding fresh food slid for a second month in April, when the jobless rate soared to a five-year high of 5 percent. GDP shrank at an unprecedented 15.2 percent annual pace in the first quarter.
Hitachi, a maker of home appliances and hard-disk drives, will slash costs by 500 billion yen ($5.3 billion) this fiscal year to minimize losses after a record 787.3 billion yen deficit last year. The company also plans to cut 7,000 jobs.
A return to deflation could dash hopes that Japan will enjoy a full-fledged recovery as it pulls out of its slump. "Exports" fell 39.1 percent in April, moderating for a second month, and industrial output surged the most in 56 years as companies started to rebuild stockpiles they managed to burn off during the height of the global downturn.

“The average person thinks deflation makes things cheaper,” said Richard Jerram, chief Japan economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo. “He doesn’t understand that it reduces his income, that it makes it more likely the company he works for will go bankrupt, that it damages public finance.”

Here again is another factual example of why there is no blue sky in major economy's. But there is lots of media hype...think happy thoughts.

 

[jonmanjiro]

Unusual move for Nikon ...

Nikon To Buy Metris, Bolster Measurement Device Ops

 

[larmarv916]

I see the offer to buy Metris as a sharp opportunity and most likely will allow for technology to also end up in cameras as well as instruments of Nikon line. Good job at finding the story. As it did not turn up anywhere else from what I see. If you find any more technology or business stories with interesting angles on Nikon, please keep feeding them. This will also help us to get a better view on "real" actions and not rumors. All the Best...Laurance

 

[jonmanjiro]

I see the offer to buy Metris as a sharp opportunity and most likely will allow for technology to also end up in cameras as well as instruments of Nikon line. Good job at finding the story. As it did not turn up anywhere else from what I see. If you find any more technology or business stories with interesting angles on Nikon, please keep feeding them. This will also help us to get a better view on "real" actions and not rumors. All the Best...Laurance

I actually spotted it here first, then searched for an English version. Although a very un-Nikonlike approach to obtaining Metris, I agree its a big opportunity for Nikon.

 

[MichaelHarris]

I tend to believe that over-manufacturing, new models every 6 months, and a shortage of consumer capital has caused a lot of the problems. Look at a car lot and all the models; consumers want a fair price, dependable, and company support over multiple choice in this day and age when consumer funds are at a minimum.

How many D Nikons have we seen in the last 2 years alone? Wouldn't one or two models that meet each end of the photography spectrum sufficed? The company tooled up and turned out a bunch of Ds of varying performance when people just wanted dependable and capable. We didn't need 8 different choices, they just wanted to sell, sell, sell. Maybe companies need to learn something from this and scale back production, once again going for quality over quantity. Our "durable" goods should be a little more durable.

 

[Bill58]

Go to dpreview and look at the nikon camera's thing on there and look at all the faceless noname nothing point and shoots they make. Honestly I spend far too much time around cameras and I cannot recognize any of these point and shoots except the P6000. For quite a while Nikon point and shoots have been a waste of time and I dont know anyone who has one. Seems Nikon's efforts could be spent in better places since Nikon point and shoots truly lack the clout and abilities of the competitors.

It's kinda like when they got their ass kicked in the 70s and 80s by Oly/ Konica/Minolta compact film RFs.

 

[larmarv916]

Major News...Aug. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s unemployment rate rose to a record 5.7 percent in July and deflation worsened, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Taro Aso The jobless rate rose more than economists estimated, surpassing the previous record 5.5 percent last seen in April 2003.

The Above snip is from a Bloomberg story that broke late California time.

Again this underlines the danger of export based economy where the underlying currency is over valued. Also another strong example of how bad things are getting in Japan is the following Toyota story.

Toyota will shut an assembly plant for the first time in its 72-year history after the failure of a joint venture with General Motors Corp. Located in Fremont, California, will end production of Corolla cars and Tacoma pickups in March 2010, Toyota said in a statement. GM in June said it would end assembly of Pontiac Vibes at the plant, known as Nummi, and quit the venture as part of its ( GM ) bankruptcy reorganization.

Now the greater problem is this will put about 25,000 into unemployment in California where only 2 days ago the state of California reported a official 11.9% unemployment.. up from 11.6% only a month ago ! So Japan's and Toyota's world export problems are now showing up in long term layoffs of jobs that...will never come back!

The estimate of job losses over the Fremont factory comes from the 5400 production workers and the additional 20,000 are suppliers that the Bay Area Economic Advisory group for the counties surrounding the SF Bay.

The national jobless rate for Japan is also seeing a overall upward trend that shows how small to medium business's are making deep cuts and deflation is again stated by the Japanese Govt. as another serious problem inside Japan.

Again all we are trying to is make sure important factual information is visible.

All the Best...Laurance