Nikon going out of the film camera business

[Andy K]

Correct. A fact is not opinion or conjecture. Gravity is not opinion. Film is dead. that is not opinion and not conjecture. Kodak says they are exiting film. Agfa is gone. Film sales are decreasing like they fell off a cliff. The inescapable conclusion is that if you fall on your ass, you'll feel it. Gravity exists, and film is dead.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

You still have not proved your point. Unless of course you really are dumb enough to think that because you say it is so then it must be. I am sure you are not that stupid.
Kodak are not the only film manufacturer in the world.
Hollywood does not shoot exclusively with digital, the vast majority of films are still shot on 35mm stock excluding such as Toy Story etc. If film is 'dead' how come Hollywood hasn't heard about it? If film is dead how come the biggest film making industry in the world, India, hasn't heard about it?
As far as my choice of cars goes, I only buy and drive manual shift cars, automatics are for pussies.

 

[Andy K]

Nobody ever thought of that one before. Congratulations. Your witty repartee has won you the respect and admiration of thousands. Hear the crowd chant your name. And etc.

Best Regards,

Bill Buttocks

Oh I'm quite sure I am not the first to think that of you.

 

[ch1]

A) We can't create enough demand to fuel a fart in a teapot. The consumer market for photography is valued in the high billions. We're not even a blip.

B) Your econ prof was wrong, or rather, too simplistic. Supply rises to meet demand in the absence of other variables.

For example, the demand for dodo bird eggs may be quite high. And there are no dodos. So whither the dodo?

Presuming that manufacturers understand their marketplace, supply always ends before demand does. How much before is a facet of the economies of manufacturing scale for that particular widget, among other variables. Manufacturers who do not understand their marketplace may well produce items that no one wants, but that's not likely to happen to photographic film. It sure did with Chia Pet heads, though.

Only in a perfect world does the last demanded widget roll off the assembly line as the last item of its type made. Demand always exceeds supply, or vice-versa. Smart companies strive to end production before demand totally ends, so they don't lose their shirts supplying the last stragglers. Remember, no matter what their public pronouncements of solidarity with the consumer might be, they are legally and fiscally responsible to their stockholders, not to their devotees.

In what world would you imagine a roll of Kodak Tri-X rolling off an assembly line as the whole friggin' miles long factory is shut down and all the workers laid off - they waited and waited so that they could make that last roll just for you, regardless of cost?

Since film manufacturing factories make their profit on a slim margin the dictates huge scale, once demand drops below some critical level, they must shut the factory down or begin bleeding money on a major scale. It is not an option to just make less of it.

That old 'supply and demand' canard has got some legs, I'll give it that - but it is a lie.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

Actually, it is Paul Sameulson I was citing, and his basic textbook has been used for over 50 years in most universities/colleges. I'm sure glad you've straightened us all out now on the law of supply and demand (good think I didn't mention the "hog cycle" - we could've been here for hours!) and we can expect your textbook to be published soon I suppose?

Oh, please note that dodo eggs do not exist despite demand becasue there are no dodos to produce them - dodos are extinct.

What does this analogy have to do with film? Whatever future business plans may hold - as of now there are companies still making film - so by definition, film is not extinct (which, BTW, is a synonym for "DEAD").

So while film may one day be dead, film is not yet dead, so you are incorrect to say that "Film is Dead".

Finally, I really think you have to consider getting more fiber into your diet! 😀

 

[bmattock]

Perhaps, Bill, the problem here is a semantic one.

Oh sure, bring religion into it.

To me, and I believe many others here, so long as I can buy film and get it developed then film is NOT dead.

It has no future.

It is true that there is little if any expectation that we will see improvements in existing film technology - so in that sense it is dead, as in a dead-end, non-evolving format.

And one which will cease to be available.

Why not explain to folks here what exactly YOU mean when you say "film is dead" and then we can all move on to some other thread that needs livening up!

What, you tired of this one already?

BTW: I did not see it, but apparently there was a WSJ article yesterday reporting that those so-called 100 year "archival quality" CD/DVDs are losing data after only b/w 3 and 5 years.

Hmmmm?

I have no doubt. One also wonders what that point would be. That film is superior to digital? We've established that. So that means film will survive? Ah, there's the rub. It won't - superior or not.

But if you want to address the qualities of keeping of film and digital, let's do that.

I have many negatives that date back 20 or so years. They're not in great shape, but then I didn't take really good care of them.

I have many digital files that date back to the late 1980's. They are still in fine shape. But then, they're no longer in the format they were in when I recorded them. From floppy disks to tape, from tape to CD's, from CD's to DVD's. And they are stored in multiple places, too, including offsite.

If my house burns down, my negs are gone for good. My important files are stored elsewhere. You can make a copy of a neg, but it is still inferior to the original. A digital copy cannot be distinguished from the original. A ten-thousandth-generation copy is as good as the original in every way.

So a CD or a DVD falls apart in time? I haven't experienced it, but I'd accept that as a possibility. Entropy tends towards maximum, after all.

But I'd be a fool if I just sat there and let it happen. I make copies and copies of copies. And I change formats when the technology changes and it makes sense to do so.

I've had friends notice that I still have 5 1/4 inch floppy disks on file. And I have no computer that can read them. But I have all the parts required to build one on the spot. And in any case, I copied those files long ago. I'm covered.

CD's fall apart? Not a problem, technology continues to improve.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[Socke]

The Mona Lisa is art, the cheap repros made by machine by the thousands are not.

A fine art print made by a human being, in a darkroom from a film negative using light sensitive materials and their hands is art, a mass produced inkjet print produced by machine is not.


Cue the howls of protest! 🙄

So Picassos Serigraphs are not art?

 

[ch1]

Oh well, I think that this Thread is Dead! 😉

Post Mortem: Two good one liners.

1) Bill M. for the fart in a teapot

2) Andy K. for B. Uttocks

Not bad for a 24-hour thread.

I've got dinner and a concert to go to - I'm outta here.

But its been fun, let's do it again sometime.

Ciao

 

[aad]

Well I'll be- I'm surprised at the level of pessimism and lack of faith in free markets. The most important thing a business needs is customers willing to pay. Beyond that everything is open. Old wives are pretty sharp-it's the silly man who said "if you build it they will come" that needs an education.
I've marked January '08 with a reminder to get some film. I'm betting I can go down the street and buy a roll of C41 color film just like today. And the sky will be in place.

 

[bmattock]

You still have not proved your point.

A) Yes, I have. But that's YOUR opinion that I haven't.
B) Sigh. Again, PROOF is not required for a statement of FACT. Read your own definition.

Unless of course you really are dumb enough to think that because you say it is so then it must be.

No, logic and history make it so. Deductive reasoning makes it so. Statements by the companies involved make it so. The companies that make film and have now failed make it so. My opinion is a small part of that, but it is a fact with or without my opinion.

I am sure you are not that stupid.

Imagine my relief.

Kodak are not the only film manufacturer in the world.

No? Oh. That's different, then. I thought they were. OK, well then there is Agfa. Ooops. Guess not. OK then, Tura. Oops again. Slavich? Darn. Perutz? Oh, man, I just can't win!

OK, seriously. Sure there are some manufacturers of B&W film left - but you can count the number of color film manufacturers on one hand now. Kodak, Fuji, Ferrania, Mitsubishi, and KonicaMinolta. Am I leaving anyone out? And Ferrania is in bankruptcy as I understand it - but they've been there for a long time and are still making film.

Point is, the makers of film continue to decline. As the retail sales of film have declined, strangely enough.

One might predict that as film sales drop even more, other film companies will drop by the wayside. Now, that's crazy talk, I know. But consider the possibility.

Hollywood does not shoot exclusively with digital, the vast majority of films are still shot on 35mm stock excluding such as Toy Story etc. If film is 'dead' how come Hollywood hasn't heard about it? If film is dead how come the biggest film making industry in the world, India, hasn't heard about it?

If you read the trades, they've heard about it. They're in a tizzy about it.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/thr/columns/mermigas_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1000956571

Robert Iger, the Walt Disney Co.'s CEO-elect, says he is making digital adoption a top priority by migrating more Disney- and ABC-branded content to the kind of video-on-demand and rich-media Web offerings already successfully embraced by ESPN.

http://www.laweekly.com/ink/99/50/film-chute.php

Hollywood is going digital at breakneck speed. Most of the subroutines of movie production, from screenwriting to title design, are already either fully digital or digitally assisted; closing the circle -- by making the process networked and digital from start to finish -- is just economic common sense. The last stubborn celluloid holdouts are the pricey release prints, thousands of them for major openings, and Hollywood is scrambling to put that $3 million albatross to sleep.

http://www.ukfilmcouncil.org.uk/filmindustry/india/

10. India's film and television industries are increasingly adopting digital technology from high-end digital cameras and graphics equipment to state-of-the-art studios and post production facilities. Studio facilities - from the state-funded Film City in Bombay/Mumbai to the privately-owned state-of-the-art Rama Rao Studios in Madras - are one of the country's key drivers for film-related inward investment.

Does it hurt to be that wrong about so many things?

As far as my choice of cars goes, I only buy and drive manual shift cars, automatics are for pussies.

He-man. Good. Start fire, roast meat.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[bmattock]

Oh well, I think that this Thread is Dead! 😉

Not until someone trips over Godwin's Law. Or I get on Joe's last nerve.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[Fred]

Bill, this must rank as the most entertaining thread that I've ever read on the RFF, educational, full of dry humour and a darn good read. Thanks everyone who took part (so far).

copake_ham, great summary.

When film becomes uneconomic to produce, the last man out the factory can switch on the light 🙂

 

[parks5920]

automatics are for pussies? Did I miss something? How did this thread end up on that?

 

[bmattock]

Well I'll be- I'm surprised at the level of pessimism and lack of faith in free markets. The most important thing a business needs is customers willing to pay. Beyond that everything is open. Old wives are pretty sharp-it's the silly man who said "if you build it they will come" that needs an education.
I've marked January '08 with a reminder to get some film. I'm betting I can go down the street and buy a roll of C41 color film just like today. And the sky will be in place.

Will you be able to buy that film in 2008? I will say no. But the sky will indeed be in place.

As to supply and demand - no one seems to be able to explain how you throttle down a factory that has base costs regardless of output. Am I the only one who understands that? No one has managed to come up with a counter to the problem of pollution and EPA permits (in the US) except 'build it in Mexico!'

Free markets are great, and they work, and I have full faith in them. They don't make things when the demand for them is lower than the supply they can produce at a profit and a price point that people will buy. Only central governments make tractors regardless of manufacturing cost when there are not enough customers to buy them at a profit. The very notion is ANTI capitalist.

This is really basic stuff. Economic theory about supply and demand never made it an axiom that all demand is met by supply - that is a gross oversimplification and misunderstanding.

Craft workshops can slow down output on a sliding scale and ramp up again to meet fluctuating demands. Factories designed to be efficient when fully utilized can not. That's why automobile lines get shut down while the cars are still in demand. That's why I can't buy a 2006 calendar in June of 2006 - there are no more being made. I have a demand, why won't someone tool up and make me one? Well, they will - but not at a price I'd pay. Huh. Guess demand does not always equal supply.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[parks5920]

I look forward to the day when you turn on the news and hear about all the rampant looting of film from the local drug store.

 

[35mmdelux]

The F100, F5, and the F6 are the only good ones anymore, so why not stop mfg the others? Sounds good to me.

 

[Andy K]

35mmdelux, the FM3a is quite nice too.

A) Yes, I have. But that's YOUR opinion that I haven't.

The only thing you have offered is your opinion that film is dead. You have not shown us one single shred of proof.

Now if you'll excuse me I have to go feed my unicorns. This is a fact because I say so.

 

[bmattock]

The F100, F5, and the F6 are the only good ones anymore, so why not stop mfg the others? Sounds good to me.

Apparently just the F6 is spared, along with the Cosina-made FM10.

And how will it sound when the F6 is given the sack?

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[bmattock]

The only thing you have offered is your opinion that film is dead. You have not shown us one single shred of proof.

Hehehehe. OK, Andy. OK.

Now if you'll excuse me I have to go feed my unicorns. This is a fact because I say so.

Well, now I know where you got what you've been shoveling here.

Best Regards,

Bill Mattocks

 

[aad]

Guess I'll need more space for the replies..

When I say demand, I mean demand by people willing to pay a price that will make manufacture worthwhile. Product lines in the automotive world are shut down when they are no longer profitable (at least, in a well run company), not when there is no demand.

My take on the future of film is based both on my experience as an engineer in the dim past, and as a business owner today with clients in the business of selling photographic equipment.

In the '80s, our company was making clutches and brakes for industrial control. The largest customers were in the web coating and slitting business-film and magnetic tape. Kodak was one of our big accounts- there's a lot of very durable equipment in those plants that will end up somewhere when Kodak decides they don't want to do film anymore-or will be sold off at the bankruptcy auction if they screw up.

The lines are built, are highly automated, and paid for. A new, small line wouldn't be all that hard to build, either-and the environmental question isn't as big a deal as some might lead you to believe. The entry fee just isn't all that high. The change in manufacturing practice in just the last 20 years beggars belief- what once took large shops with 50+ people now fits in a garage and has 2 employees.

As to demand- I know I live in an area blessed with choice in photo processing, but it is our local demand that keeps our wide variety of independent film processors going. And that demand is coming from-college students. Not old farts like me. When I pick up my film order, the "ready" boxes are jammed. We don't worry about coagulated E6 chemicals- I complain when my Velvia isn't ready in 2 hours. And this place isn't the only one available, either.

Tomorrow I'll be visiting with the client who told me about the increase in film demand that he sees. His shop no longer sells cameras of any kind-he does film developing, prints of all types, and in-house photos only. I'll let you know what he says.

 

[cbass]

Bill, Andy: please return to your neutral corners. Please. Can't we all just get along?

The top five suggested new names for Rangefinder Forum after film dies:

5. Paperweight Forum
4. F.L.U.G - Former Leica Users Group
3. What's a Rangefinder? Forum
2. The Betty Ilford Clinic
1. I Can't Believe it's Not Film!

And with that, I bid you all goodnight. Love thy emulsion as ye love thy pixel.

 

[Stephanie Brim]

Hm. Film isn't quite dead, but I can feel it dying. The flame is slowly going out and you can hear the screams. I have a feeling that bmattock isn't really that far off.