NYC Journal

Cal,
No rush at all! Take care of your health. I have plenty of bicycle projects and working bicycles. The weather hasn't been friendly either lately and most of our singletrack trails are closed to prevent excessive erosion. Thank you very much again, but do get well yourself, first.

Phil Forrest
 
Alan Greenspan came up with a term called “disinflation.”

Disinflation is how cheap goods got cheaper because of outsourcing and globalization under his tenure. Wages stayed low and stagnated, unions lost power, as middle class erosion began. This went on for decades, but is now played out.

One thing I did was not buy consumer goods at Walmart, Target, K-Mart that was more or less cheap goods from China. I knew there would be a price to pay later.

In an earlier post on this thread I wrote about how over 40% of current mortgages in the U.S. originated in 2020 or 2021 through either purchase or ReFi. This conflated the housing shortage because selling a house with a mortgage set at record lows effectively is not a good idea.

FED policy created an unintended consequence of worsening a housing shortage after more than a decade of building new homes was subdued after the housing crisis. In other words a supply was curtailed after the glut of 2008 and crash, and now the under supply of houses is undercut by the current housing restriction caused by lack of turnover.

My term for what we are experiencing now is what I would call the age of “Conflation.” Basically the housing crisis was caused by fraud that loose lending practices created, predatory lending, and liar-loans. The play on words is clever where “con” equals “fraud.”

Of course the debt and the cost was “socialized” and absorbed by the taxpayer by indenturing the public by increased deficits.

We are in a period of deglobalizing; trade wars and trade restrictions are increasing; and the shortages that are the result of the pandemic will persist. Onshoring a supply line takes both time and money.

I don’t see disinflation coming back, from here prices only esculate, and inflation for many countries is the only policy to destroy not only their debt but also their currency.

A key point though is that Conflation certainly is a redistribution of wealth. Another point is that the period of disinflation under Greenspan’s tenure at the FED lasted decades so it might be very difficult to entrench the decades of loose money policy.

We are all paying for fraud.

Cal
 
Rider/photographer in Orange County. When do we go out? Not today or tomorrow.
 

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Rodger,

Snarky Joe, Phil, and Christian here are serious bikers.

Snarky Joe has the high horse power, the guy who can tow a pace-line.

Phil is a guy blessed with a crazy VO2 max.

Christian it is in his blood because he is Dutch.

Me, I’m just a bike bum where for a while I lived to ride. Biking became the most important thing in my life because I had to learn how to relax. The choice was relax or die…

At this point, after having Covid, and being a house-slug for two years, I kinda depleted my my base. One thing I am known for though is having a high threshold of pain. I ran the NYC Marathon “off-the-couch” as Scot Nicole said when I was 49 with no training.

Do you mountain bike? The reason I ask is I live mucho close to Blue Mountain Preserve.

I figure I is always good to ride. Saved my life once, and it will save it again. What I need the most right now is “long-slow-distance” to rebuild my base.

I’m 5’10” and about 150 pounds. I have a build of a climber.

Cal
 
I’m scheduled with my new PCP under my “Advantage” heath plan for an appointment tomorrow. This PCP in particular specializes in geriatrics which at age 65 I am entering.

I’m pretty sure I can exceed 100 years, and I want to try and age in place. I made the choice, and I think I made a good bet.

Kinda funny how as my diet became cleaner, less processed, and more natural how my skin got drier. Nothing like fatty meat and greasy fries.

Anyways, one reason to bike is that you can eat a lot. In a way biking can be interpreted as a form of eating disorder for those of us who are binge eaters.

Cal
 
Rodger,

How wide are those tires on that Paramount?

Also I took note that you are likely rather tall by the frame size.

Snarky Joe turned me onto Rene Herse tires. I have a Ti Basso (early rebranded Litespeed) mountain bike I set up with gravel tires 1.8”. It is set up as a 1x11 XTR currently, but will change over to a 2x11 with a 48/32 set of chainrings. These tires have low rolling resistance, and I love the smooth ride.

My forensics suggest that you might be older to have a retro bike. Is my guess correct. Know that I’m a speculator and smut queen.

Cal
 
The partially graveled roads of Tuscany with some steep climbs of over 20 degrees is a pretty race course.

The way the “B” and “C” words were expressed within the writing, spoken between women I found to be great. True sportsmanship. LOL.

The language spoken was Dutch and between Dutch teammates and perhaps Devil Christian could explain further the dual translation of the insult.

Cal
 
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Recently the FED has been more openly hawkish after the last rate hike of only 1/4%. The street thought that the very vocal FED was preparing to announce a half point as its next hike, but now we sit in danger because with the collapse of the 17th largest bank in the U.S. it seems it will be impossible for the FED to increase rate hikes without the danger of risking another bank implosion.

On one hand you have the war on inflation, and on the other hand you have another “run-on-a-bank.”

Meanwhile Biden, Yellen, and others say the U.S. banking system is fine. Well not really. They are just trying to stop further runs and control damage.

I remember when Alan Greenspan said the subprime mortgage problem was “contained.” Well not really. Opps…

I expect another shoe to drop. The FED has hit its limit is one way to look at the situation. Raising rates leads to other possible bank implosions, and not raising rates will allow the inflation to gather mucho momentum since they under did the last rotate increase.

Cal
 
Bank of America is not a small bank, and it closed a sixth day of losses with heavy trading. Hmmmm…

I wonder if I should hold more cash in my wallet? Might all of the sudden my credit or debit cards not work.

Then there’s Signature Bank, Western Alliance, and First Republic…

In a few days or maybe a week we shall know if this is just a head fake or a full blown crisis. They say this cannot be a repeat of 2007-2008 because of regulations. That might be true when applied to mortgages, but what about all those auto loans that are based on loose credit standards?

I remember during the Credit Crisis when CitiBank limited my ATM withdrawal to $200.00. They used the excuse of some form of fraud protection, but was that the thruth? Was it really to stop or forestall a run on the bank?

Cal
 
Get ready for the feces to fly !

www.armstrongeconomics.com

The Banking Crisis is Global – Not Confined to the USA | Armstrong Economics

The Biden Administration is responding to the panic phone calls that their Marxist philosophy will bring down the entire financial system. My ear is red as can be. I have had enough of the phone calls today to last the balance of the month. Trying just to do the right thing! Three banks have
www.armstrongeconomics.com www.armstrongeconomics.com
 
Austin,

Thanks for the links. They do a good job of connecting the dots.

An inverted yield curve is a bank killer. Realize that long term treasuries are widely held by banks and governments, and forced selling at this point locks in losses.

I was unaware where all the holdings were distributed, and how big are the possible losses.

A decade of underbuilding housing creates inflation, a housing shortage, and unafforability.

FED policy enabled many home owners to either buy or RiFi their homes at record low interest rates. Again 40% of U.S. mortgages originate from 2020 and 2021. This effectively removes about 40% of of the U.S. housing stock out of the market perhaps for a decade if not more, making the housing shortage worse.

War is inflationary: that is a fact; and it is costly.

It seems more and more improbable that the FED can effectively battle inflation and a banking crisis at the same time.

When is the next shoe going to drop?

Cal
 
Cal, I’d be interested in a link to “Maggie’s” blog or other creative work, I’m always on the lookout to be inspired by other people.

I recently retired at age 65, I’m enjoying following along with your adventure.
 
Joe,

”Maggie’s” blog is www.accidentalIcon.com

Her Instagram is IconAccidental.

You will also find links to her sub-stax or sub-stack where she showcases other work.

Retirement is live growing up again for me. An exploration of who I truly am and want to be, without the burden of work. Lots of challenges, learning, and growing.

BTW When I say “Don’t tell Maggie,” I mean it. LOL. I give you the honest insider smut here.

For me being creative and annoying people comes naturally. Maggie I think over thinks everything, and this inhibits creativity.

Did you know the name “Maggie” is my way to make fun of her. Maggie is Martha Stewart’s older sister who is OCD Who’s sometimes rigid thinking is rather stuck and particular.

Cal
 
Calzone said:
The partially graveled roads of Tuscany with some steep climbs of over 20 degrees is a pretty race course.

The way the “B” and “C” words were expressed within the writing, spoken between women I found to be great. True sportsmanship. LOL.

The language spoken was Dutch and between Dutch teammates and perhaps Devil Christian could explain further the dual translation of the insult.

Cal
Click to expand...
Cal, I'm not sure which clip you watched, because the one I saw was on the BBC. No Dutch swearing.
Just for clarification; the 'C' word in Dutch is written with a K, and it is a pretty common swear word that can be added as a preface to just about anything negative. It is not nice, but it doesn't have the same stigma that the 'C' word has in English. The more traditional way to swear is to wish diseases like cholera, cancer or typhoid onto people or objects. This language isn't censored on TV or Radio btw.

We just returned from the Met to see the huge Avedon portraits. It is only one room, but they are very cool. I saw them 25 years ago in London.
There is also an interesting small exhibit of Berenice Abbot contact prints from when she returned to NY from Paris with all of Atget's archive. At some point she let Walker Evans use her darkroom while he was photographing in NY so there are a few of his prints included. The best comment I overheard today was from some lady looking at the Evans prints:
"Oh, these are by someone else."
 
Christian,

The writer used “B” and “C” to describe an equivalent in Dutch the cursing that happened at the finish like, a competition between two women, who were teammates.

In the end it became an all out race and the early bike throw at the finish line created a second place, while the woman who was cursing actually won.

The last time I saw those Avedon lifesized head to toe portraits was at MOMA in the 1970’s. Not sure if the smut was true but Avedon was known to sleep with his models. It left an impact on me about image quality.

The owner of the horse barn printing studio I would like to photograph. I am looking at old men who display character, texture, and a landscape in their faces. I bet he is in his 70’s. I think a book about old geezers would be interesting.

Also there is a VA hospital in Montross. Clayton is a retired officer I met at Blue Mountain. He was a pretty remarkable man, and he is another old geezer I would like to shoot.

So now I think of myself as more of a sniper than a street shooter. Having larger formats now kinda makes sense.

Cal
 
My doctor’s appointment was canceled at the last minute, and I have to reschedule. Might be storm related because today the office is closed.

Yesterday “Maggie” mentioned that I smell like antibiotics. I was showered, so it wasn’t about hygiene.

I figure I’ll get about $3.7K worth of tax credits on my home upgrades that fit the Inflation Reduction Act. Front and rear exterior doors, windows, insulation, and mini-splits.

“No one ever got rich by paying taxes,” they say.

Now that I understand that I can earn tax credits I’ll try to milk this program over the next few years.

Cal
 
Kinda funny at this point.

This is a Meet-Up Thread. In the past we actually meet up every month for over a decade, then the Pandemic happened.

Physical Meet-Ups did not happen for a while, but I was contacted because there was a need and a renewed purpose to this thread during the lock down.

It brought people together, it fought back isolation, and it also provided a “safe-place.” This thread gave hope when it was needed and evolved/devolved into other things.

Did you know that many people on this thread actually know each other rather well, and we have met each other? Pretty much a group of friends.

Also the reach is rather far, where we took The Mega Bus from the Javet’s Center in NYC to Philly to meet-up with other shooters. We visited the abandoned Eastern State Penetentury to shoot, and then walked into North Western Philly which we were told to avoid.

So basically this is a chat space for a bunch of friends. In milder weather we will have real Meet-Up’s again in NYC.

Cal
 
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