NYC Journal

The military response in Yemen caused oil prices to jump to nearly $75.00 a barrel.

Certainly this is inflationary, and the disruption in 15% of the world’s shipping also translates into supply line delays that lead to shortages and are also inflationary.

Add onto this that there are restrictions at the Panama Canal due to drought that has curbed operations to also creates delays, shortages and supports inflation.

Pretty much expect supply disruptions and support of inflation due to “structural” issues. I say it is a bad bet that a soft landing could be supported due to structural issues. Kinda like building a house on a bed of quick sand, or maybe worse building a house in a flood zone and never expecting to get flooded.

Not a bad time to be in austerity for me. This will be my plan: to limit my spending; and curb expenses. It is a good time to have little or no debt. Any debt hopefully is at a fixed low interest rate or record low interest rates.

My spin is inflation really has not been tamed yet, and possible and probable problems persist that are structural and are so permanently persistent that people don’t see it as a problem with a capitol “P.”.

We know debt loads hover at high levels, and really they seem to not be dragging down the world economy. China is not alone, and there are problems in the U.S. and in Europe where credit and deficits have been utilized to prop up and promote growth to avoid recessions and collapse.

To me this artificial manipulation has gone on for a while making and creating further structural weakness for when the shoe eventually drops. A game of “Musical Chairs” where the music keeps playing, but when the music stops many will not find the support of a chair. Eventually something has to give.

Danger lurks…

The military response in Yemen really does not solve anything. Expect further war and further instability. Of course this could effect world oil prices, but pretty much since the U.S. is now the world’s largest exporter of oil that we somewhat are insulated and even could benefit from higher world oil prices. Basically it would lower our trade balance and lower our deficit.

Conversely I also expect high oil prices will help Russia, and also support the relationship and economic ties between Russia and China. Remember that China is the world’s largest importer of oil, and that Russia and China have agreed to trade oil using Chinese currency to bypass the world oil market that is traded in U.S. Dollars.

Pretty risky for Russia because debt problems in China is a serious risk, and any weakness or devaluation in China’s currency would lead to possible and probable monumental loses, in a time where capitol is already fleeing China. Pretty much a dumb bet.

The world could go into a recession, which could take down our economy. This is what I expect.

Cal
 
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A headline stated 9 out of ten mortgages are below 6% interest.

Pretty much 90%.

Then I did a search and found out that 61% of mortgages are under 4%; and 23% are under 3%.

WOW. “Maggie” and I are among the 23%.

These numbers are mucho crazy, define a historic event, and mark a very unusual time that is likely to never happen again, meaning record low interest rates.

The deeper meaning here is the housing shortage persists in certain metro areas, and Peekskill is one of them. Of interest to me is the possibility of building a second house in my back-backyard.

Lightning could strike twice…

To provide a gauge VA mortgages from the G.I. Bill after WWII were around 4%. My dad had a VA mortgage and was in the Army during WWII.

The long-term average interest rate over decades is actually 7.49%. Remember these numbers.

Cal
 
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Devil Dan,

You know me well.

Pretty much mucho open, lofty, roof top deck…

Perhaps a Pre-Fab, or something from a magazine like “Dwell.” Knowing “Maggie” she would want a carriage house or a barn.

Of course I have to rob a bank or get the money.

”Don’t tell Maggie.”

Here in Peekskill there is mucho talk about ADR. Hmmm.

Rough-Ruff.

Cal the lucky dog.
 
Calzone said:
Here in Peekskill there is mucho talk about ADR.
Click to expand...
Many cities are changing zoning to allow for these. When I lived in Texas we called them a casita. There are some well built premanufactured
units I see here in Colorado called "Park Model" that you might check out. Various sizes and floor plans. Most have a loft and porch on them.
 
Austin,

I meant ADU. (Additional Dwelling Unit)

About a block away this high earner medical equipment salesman bought 2 building lots and had a Pre-Fab house built on one lot. He’s trying to sell the second lot which is basically a granite rock outcropping.

If a neighbor who was a builder didn’t tell me it was a Per-Fab I would of never known.

The thing is where I live is taxes. Westchester has high taxes, but because my Baby-Victorian is so old (1912) and has not been sold many-many times their have only been a few assessments and my low taxes have mucho “you suck factor.” We are only the 4th owners.

On my street is a house that has been sold many times, like every 2-3 years and the taxes are about 50%-60% more because of all the reselling and reassessments..

Recently, like yesterday, I calculated the square footage of our home. I thought the real estate people inflated the size at 1525 square feet. I kinda came up with 1500, so pretty much they were not exaggerating.

Then the thought has passed my mind that we are so involved with the grandkids that I considered the what if they lived next door. I don’t know if I will be fit to drive when I’m 100, so maybe we might get some help when we need it. The grand children and “Maggie’s“ daughter will get the Baby-Victorian in the end anyways. A house for a family of four in this situation would have to be built, a three bedroom.

So there are some possibilities here, but…

Anyways, I figure the housing shortage in the NYC metro area is not going away. A more modest house that is sized as a guest house might be more practical. The back-backyard has a view, privacy, and actually is secluded. The ideal location would be towards the area I’m terracing because a deck would hang like a cliff and you would not see any houses or neighbors, meaning the Baby-Victorian. It effectively would be nested and situated like a vacation home even though it is in a city.

Could be a summer rental that could pay for itself, and then say for 9 months of the year it my studio.

I might have to move the two sheds… Oh-well.

Then what if we find the stairs a burden and need to live on one level. We could build the house we need that would be perfect. If two story, why not have an elevator? Deck, rooftop deck, a view of nature, overlooking a valley with a marsh, a brook, a frog pond, a forested hillside, and no neighbors in view, even though a 40x100.

Anyways lots of possibilities.

Cal
 
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Yesterday I filled the freezer with meat. Had space since two trays of lasagna are gone. I’m a bit of a carnivore and pretty much I have to eat a lot of protein.

Nearby is a strip mall with my local grocery. I limit my shopping there because of pricing, but it is Korean owned and does well for Asian vegetables, fresh ToFu, and real deal Asian noodles from Japan.

In the Blue Zones many diets are plant based. This inspires me to include more plant based protein like ToFu and bean sprouts that are readily available just about 2 1/2 blocks away. It is also a way to save money. Remember I am in austerity mode after a spending binge last year.

Yesterday I sent in a big check after talking with my accountant, and sent in my New York estimated taxes. Ouch… Then my Medicare premiums jumped up to surprise me. Serious pain.

Meanwhile “Maggie” is really busy doing all these necessary tasks to promote her book. Pretty much necessary evil intruding that seems endless. She is contacting some of her followers that have big followings themselves, needing their snail-mail address, so that advanced copies can be mailed by the publisher. Pretty much networking.

Use to be “readings” would be an author going to a bookstore and reading part of a book, followed by a Q&A session, but since Covid this has been replaced by a “conversation” that involves a discussion and moderation involving generally a recognized advanced writer to be more conducive to a live zoom call.

Things are not so simple as when I got my MFA in 2005. Back then having a platform meant a website and some resources to promote yourself, but now this involves Social Media and having a large active presence there. Pretty much Maggie got a book contract because of her Social Media and all the connections she made over the decade she was a Digital Influencer.

Still, you need to understand that much of this is self-promotion, and the publisher does very little. Of course I hear all the whining, complaints, and dissatisfaction. “Poor Calvin,” I say. I get “dog-face” when I did nothing wrong. You know what they say, the man comes home from a bad day at work and kicks the dog.

Not easy to deal with a frustrated person and their anger. To be truthful though I would not do as well as her. I go mucho crazy when I get angry, and pretty much I get assertive and aggressive. Jumping through hoops is not for me, and that is basically what Maggie is being forced to do.

Then there is the point of working for free that could be twisted into basically slavery. I don’t work for free. I never-ever answer surveys or questioners. If they want data from me, pay me. Why should I work for free so others can make more money. To me the definition of slavery.

Back in the days of the end of Cold War at Grumman they hired some analytic group and sent out an “Employee Survey.” I would later learn that the intelligence gathered led to cuts in benefits, other cost cutting, and pretty much towed the line more towards profits rather than employee well being. Pretty much our data was used against us.

After this experience I never participated in Employee Surveys because I knew how the data would be used, not for my benefit.

BTW I see a pattern in the markets. Early in the morning Futures on the major indexes are down. Pretty much I think Smart Money is selling and locking in profits. Pretty steady pattern over the past week. Perhaps an overbought condition is unwinding, or perhaps the Smart Money knows that the Red Sea is now officially a war zone and shipping and supply lines will be disrupted.

Expect an economic slowdown, inflation to be encouraged, and higher prices. I’m glad I spent a lot last year and binged. It is good that I’m in an austere mode for 2024. I should still be a great year at least for me.

Cal
 
Only 8 pullups today. AJ says that it is not uncommon to have strong days and weak days because of strain.

I mentioned to him that on my birthday and the day after I was able to do 10. At this point he is good for only 25, 30 was his best.

I did some maintenance on my Ti Basso road bike (Ti Litespeed Classic) and rode to AJ’s shop in Croton. The hills were a strain, and it was windy.

Later in the afternoon I walked with “Maggie.” Mixing up exercise is all good. I can feel my core, the weak point, tightening up from the mix of activity.

Sad news is that the dead tree in the back-backyard fell down and shattered. The moist water logged soil along with some wind I guess took it out. Now the back looks less closed in, bigger and more expansive. More clean fill. The Wisteria did not get damaged, and I’ll have to figure out a pole for it to climb on now that the tree can’t be used as a trellise.

I have a mess to clean up. The tree leaned downhill, so I predicted the shed next to it would be safe. Will likely use the logs to build up part of the dead end hillside as a buffer.

Cal
 
Went to bed early, found myself in micro sleep mode. I figure I needed more rest, and this corresponds with only 8 pullups.

I likely get up at six automatically because in the spring the birds sing with the sunrise. I always get up at the same time, but my bedtime varies. I suspect this is the opposite of many people. They say a regular sleeping pattern is important to maintain health.

Let’s see if I’m back to 10 pull-ups or even a surprise 11.

It seems that the cold is a stressor of sorts, and it lowers my energy level. Good thing is that I can stay indoors and use the Concept 2 rowing machine. I learned yesterday that my legs are not so strong, the hills were difficult, and I need to do some leg strength training like squats and lunges. This should help me get more endurance.

AJ says he has a spare set of XTR first generation shifter levers. He thought it clever how I used them with a straight bar on my Ti Basso Road. This bike stands out because it is bead blasted into a dull grey, has a blue fade, and then is clear coated for a rather distinguished look. He is going to dig them out and gift them to me. Mighty cool because I have a spare Dura-Ace derailleur… Hmmm…

I guess I am known as the old bike man. Like Snarky Joe says I’m stuck in the past.

“Maggie’s” book launch will be live streamed and also be on U-tube. Things are building up.

Meanwhile I’m doing the cost cutting and keeping expenses down. I need to kill that high Medicare premium.

Cal
 
I was able to do my now usual 10. After a shower I did another 8 pull-ups, saving some reserve to do another likely 8 or nine later today. I proved my theory that I need more rest to move forward in my fitness. I can’t hammer like when I was younger, and it seems when old that rest is part of the recipe for any buildup.

I also am noticing that the small winter weight gain of 2-3 hamburgers is melting away. My torso is getting cut and the abs are converting from a 4-pack to a 6-pack. A gram of fat is 9 calories. Everyday I feel a tightness in my midsection as my core gets more defined. This is likely happening because of the varied exercises that works, but does not strain.

If I were not retired I don’t think I would have the time to do what I do. In a ways my day is centered around perhaps only 5 things, getting enough rest, eating clean and good, varied exercises, relaxing, and maybe doing some work on either bike maintenance, the yard, or the house.

I keep it loose and pretty much want to move forward in a baby-step manner. The big thing is having a routine and having consistency. No schedule, no deadline, no stress (stress is BS), and pretty much just taking care of myself and “Maggie.”

We have a brunch to attend. Refugee young hipsters from Brooklyn who moved up to Peekskill pre-pandemic. We will walk from the southern end to nearly the northern end. We will get to see another old historical house, but this house is kinda big. We likely will the oldest in attendance, but know that part of Brooklyn and that youthful Brooklyn hipster vibe is right here in Peekskill.

Some say that Peekskill is the 6th Borough. Somewhat true. In Beacon they say the same, but in Peekskill there is more diversity. Beacon now I would define as a “safe place for rich people.” Gentrification pushed out the poor and people of color. No nice way to put it but “mighty white” at this point and perhaps harshly maybe sterilized.

I have a boring life, but I don’t need a lot to be happy. A simple life makes me happy, and pretty much I can entertain myself. I have plenty of interests and pursuits, perhaps too many of them as distractions from the world that is a complete hot mess.

I see a headline that now states that the Red Sea is a war zone and that it will effect world trade. Tell me something I didn’t know. Then pretty much the supply issues and greater costs not only are inflationary, but also will slow down growth in the world economy. Is a world recession possible or probable? To me things are pointing that way.

Pretty much in Russia there is about a 5% increase in spending that is promoting their economy, and of course this is war spending. There is a shortage of workers and bad inflation, as well as shortages. Some of the problems have side-stepped to dodged bullets, like increased trade with China. Of course this has consequences, surprises, and risk…

I wonder if China will do something similar to Russia. Politically starting a war helped Putin maintain power when cracks in his foundation were appearing. China has mucho problems, and a war could divert attention. Pretty much an insane idea that also makes sense.

”Wag the dog,” they say…

Interesting how I live in the big world, and also in my small universe. Simple verses complicated…

Cal
 
I pulled out my Milwaukee 7 1/2 battery powered chain saw and played lumberjack in my back-backyard cutting and cleaning up the old dead fallen tree. The logs were mucho heavy and pretty much tested my strength and stamina. Guess I wanted to prove I’m still a tough guy.

As usual things are evolving on the slope. The hill is becoming less steep as clean fill has formed a bit of a cliff. I’m glad I bought the chainsaw and it surely is an asset and a useful tool. If you know how to cut out wedges pretty much you can cut rather thick logs, but with additional cuts. The 7 1/2 inches is really not a limitation for my use.

Every day I do something productive, and in today’s episode it was playing lumberjack. Yesterday it was road bike maintenance, but tomorrow I don’t know what I will do.

Maybe buy some trim lumber to stain. I priced out things and Home Cheapo will get my bussiness. Already measured to know the amount I need To trim in the inside perimeter of the windows. I have all the moldings removed from the dining room stored in the garage, but I have to strip the non-leaded white paint off the moldings.

The dining room was gutted and insulated with rock wool and a vapor barrier. No insulation and no vapor barrier were behind paneling and a plaster wall. New Sheetrock needs a light sanding, primer, and paint. The dining room has four windows and three of them comprise a “walkout” to make effectively a larger huge window.

The dining room will be a very pretty room when it is done. Amazing light, especially in the late afternoon when the orange light illuminates the house when the sun sets behind the mountains. Pretty much mountains on the west side of the Hudson, but the deposit of a glacier on the east side of the Hudson. Understand that the Hudson Valley could be considered a very long Fyord.

There is a lot of geographic drama going on because Peekskill has a bay and West Point just a little north of Peekskill is a narrow and deep part of the Hudson River. Just north of Peekskill are the Hudson Highlands, a mountainous valley, where Peekskill is considered the “Gateway to the Hudson Highlands.”

I figure Craig, the tree surgeon, and I became good friends right away because we are both serious environmentalists. On a small scale he saw what I was doing in my back-backyard to restore things and get rid of invasive Knotweed without any herbicide. Pretty much I’m building out the second building lot prepping it for maybe a major retaining wall. It would be a cliff about 30-35 feet that has a vista and privacy, even though in a city of 25K.

Overall elevation is 75-80 feet above sea level depending on tide. Although inland our climate is effected by the Gulfstream. We get moderate winters, but they seem to be warming. At one point we might typically have winters where no snow accumulates, like last winter, and the growing season seems to get longer and longer.

Cal
 
The hipster house party was in a 1880’s house that not only was 3500 square feet and huge, but also was within a historic district. It was as I thought, a youthful Brooklyn vibe, and we were the oldest couple in attendance. Also in attendance were all these little kids and newborns.

We made new friends and socialized.

Separately the other day “Maggie” learned what caused the downturn in the was the development of strip malls in the 1970’s. Prior to that in the 40’s, 50’s, and 60’s Peekskill was a thriving city that had department stores. It was the hub and center of the larger community, but then that got diluted…

These historic homes in the historic district get subsidized if they register and then have to stay period correct. Anyways these homes were way too large for Maggie and I, although the tall ceilings and mucho space were really grand.

One of the neighbor’s was a refugee from Madhattan like us, but they only moved here last year. Their house on a corner lot across the street is about 4500 square feet, 1880’s. What a monster.

Another couple lived off of Furnace Dock Road in a house they described as like a ski chalet. The location is not in Peekskill, but is just south of us, where I often bike through the rolling hills that twist and turn with very little car traffic. The man was in his 50’s and his partner was of an age where she could of been his daughter. She was a bit of a trophy.

We had walked. City Hall was not far away, but the cold and wind made it brisk. My lumberjacking in the cold combined with the walk in the cold fatigued me, and I ended up going to bed early yet again. It seems evident that the exposure to cold is a strain and causes me to get overly tired. I recognize the problem and await spring.

20 degree temperatures in the forecast. Not good for me. Maybe the strain of using all my strength to roll the trunk as a rather heavy log was the source of the fatigue? Perhaps that strain combined with the cold exposure?

Cal
 
Just enough snow to be annoying. Temperature overnight in the teens.

Thankfully the recording of the audiobook will begin tomorrow and not today. To get to Monroe near the Woodbury Commons Mall we have to use the “Goat Trail” that was blasted into the mountain to go over the Bear Mountain Bridge. Under fresh snow this road is a hazard.

Last night I did some guitar maintenance and restrung the Santa Cruz OM and the HOG. Old strings get grooves in them and can lead to premature fret wear. Kinda like how a new chain saves the cassette and chain rings on a bike.

The HOG sounds like a much bigger guitar with its boomy bass response. Playing hard gets this percussive piano sound, and in a way it is like playing a drum.

The OM has slinky action and has a feel like an electric guitar, even with medium gauge of strings.

Yesterday I played all three Santa Cruz acoustics. It was a fulfilling day. I also took a break from exercise to have a rest day.

I’ll see how I do with the cold today. The Cold Agglutinin Disease I have produces some chemical that creates tiredness. Basically I have less energy and get more tired in the winter. Cold spells like we are experiencing take me down a notch.

I am grateful that our house has no sidewalks, our driveway is tiny and small, and that the walk to our stoop is short. Not a lot of shoveling.

Cal
 
Morning Cal,

New to Me Combiplan Setup Complete by Nokton48, on Flickr

I ordered three liter sized pitchers from Photographer's Formulary. The complete Combitube NIB old stock arrived from Germany in good order. So now I am ready to go trying developers that are more suitable for DipN'Dunk processing. Works with European sized planfilm and plates that fit my European cameras. Long WInter, crank up the heater, and give it a good go. Looking forward to it as I have time.

SONY DSC by Nokton48, on Flickr

Testing this Combiplan Film Washer, it works great! After fixing into this modded tank it goes. Surgical tubing three feet ID half-inch, fits the screw-in plastic Combiplan insert. Gently tightened hose clamp tight seal, no leaks. Final embellishment will be to add Inline Filter, set of three plus six extra filters, $30 on Amazon. On it's way to me. This will wash any of the Combiplan Rack Configuration, Imperial size or Metric size. Most excellent film washer.
 
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