NYC Journal

Another red-screen today. Oil is down to $80.00. Gold hovers around $2.3K

To me it seems like the economy is slowing down, and at the same time inflation is proving to be stubborn. Any FED cuts will be delayed if any. Could be a tight rope for an extended period of time. A soft landing might not be happening, and it looks to be stagflation is beginning.

Another headline is a possible Asian currency crisis might be happening. I don’t know any details…

Anyways the markets kinda got ahead of themselves believing rate cuts would happen and the economy would respond to stimulation from said rate cuts. I thought and am thinking that the FED is in a tight spot. Raising rates would kill the economy, but if they don’t keep rates high inflation will regain traction.

In the world there are many debt problems. China is not alone, the U.S. also has some serious debt problems. Something could go kaa-boom, sooner or later.

Cal
 
Right now the tiny bedroom upstairs is just a big closet with two windows. “Maggie” has clothes racks, shoes and bags stored there, but if I move my clothes to the attic perhaps I could get Maggie to clear out that small room for me.

I could fit my digital work station and my JUKI commercial sewing machine.

Pretty much insulate the attic roof, lay down a floor, and store stuff up there.

Pretty cost effective way to gain some studio space.

Cal
 
I think I actually felt my metabolism shift into one of a training athlete over the last two days. I rode to work both yesterday and today. Previously, I would take a day rest between rides, but last night I felt good and wanted to push myself. This morning's ride was the usual time but I didn't arrive winded or exhausted. I felt on the last hill that I could push myself at a higher cadence and my recovery from the last bit of anaerobic burn was really quick. Anyway, I'm starving. Every morning I have a big bowl of oatmeal with a tablespoon of molasses, walnuts and some kind of dried fruit. I sprinkle some coarse salt on for both more flavor and for the electrolytes. Usually that keeps me but yesterday and especially today, I'm going to eat my lunch early, then grab a snack after noon.
People on my ride are always surprised to see me hanging with them. This morning's first mark was a guy mashing a mountain bike with street tires. He was kind of clearing traffic then I passed him and I think he realized what fast could look like.
The second one was another masher, this one towing a Burley trailer and all over the path with a "ding dong" bell, riding just a tad a-hole because he's being inconsiderate. I passed him on a slight uphill.
E-bikes are ruining what was an otherwise civil subculture. We have people on bikes weighing upwards of 70lbs, sometimes going 30mph on a bike/running path and they are a hazard to everyone's safety.
This evening I'll be changing my chainring to a 48 tooth so my ratio will be 48/19 on 700x32 tires. The ride to work next week will be a pain, but good pain.
Phil
 
Cal,
Your writing about maintenance and strength has hit home for me this last two years. The pandemic, and my own several cases of COVID really deconditioned me and while I had remained relatively healthy, I just didn't have the stamina for a long time to ride like I do now. I think I deconditioned and lost muscle mass. Not the cells themselves, but the bulk and strength. I've found that since age 45 or so, it's harder to maintain that mass, so this last few months I've been pushing myself and building up much more strength.
Riding a fixed gear about 10 miles to work is just about the perfect daily workout for me for maintenance. I get an intense cardio workout, I get speed intervals and as a result, I improve my form, I get a few miles of steady smooth spin, and then I get a 2 mile hill up to the hospital, with the last 500 feet being some of the steepest. That last 3 miles of the ride to work is all strength training, almost weightlifting but on my bike.
Not sure where the next job will be but I'm hoping for a similar commute in order to keep maintenance up.
Phil
 
Phil,

Some of your writing here has taught me that an old man’s strength does not really peak. I have no doubt that with some work I could do 100 dirty fast pushups in a set. Currently 60-70 on a max set is possible, but I don’t really want to bulk up and be a muscle head.

Right now bike riding up hills strength is used pushing gears, but fitness to spin up a hill and stay on top of a gear of course is more efficient.

I as an old man rely on strength. It requires less training, but it is surely also an asset.

My friend Iron Mike did this winter training of 80% effort on rollers one winter. He came back into the spring a bit of a monster rider. Not using strength he vascularized his body.

Ultimately this is where we want to go. “Long slow distance” as they say. This is real fitness. Resting pulse close to or below 40, blood pressure in the under 100/60 range, and pretty much an endurance machine.

I remember doing over 300 miles a week, and sometimes 500.

Your wisdom on strength I found to be true.

I also think I carry more weight. Muscle is more dense than fat, so perhaps I’m no longer a skinny bitch any more. Part of me looks like a UFC fighter rather than a biker. If I do the 100 pushups in a set buildup I would look like someone on steroids.

I also put on 5 pounds of flab. The amount of lean body mass makes me want to eat and eat. As you know a biker can easily burn off 5 pounds in a month if they ride every day.

I decidedly think that cardio fitness over strength is the best fitness, but some people have either the genes or the strength to weight ratio to basically do mucho heavy intervals. Not everyone is good at intervals…

Interval capability and a huge cardio base wins races.

Cal
 
BTW my spring training has been a bit sidetracked. Gardening, the house, “Maggie’s” book, the grandson.

There’s more to life than just being a bike bum and riding every day.

The hills in Carmel are brutal on the way back to the car. Kinda tough. I see many cyclists walk their bikes up those hills.

Cal
 
There is this expression: “The first 40 years of health determines the second 40 years of health.”

I found this to be true. Pretty much if you let yourself go, and are overweight at 40, pretty much it is really-really difficult in the second 40 to recover or even maintain.

Just weeks ago my PCP told me I have the body of a healthy 40 year old and not only that I could pass for 40. I’m 66 years old. I know I have great genes for strength.

Understand that at the age of 49 I ran the NYC Marathon “Off the couch” without any training under the time of 5 hours. I literally had one full day to get ready.

Now “Maggie’s” blood work suggests she is loosing muscle mass. This is part of aging.

Last year I asked about getting free gym memberships that are part of our health plans, and today after seeing her blood work tests she suddenly thinks joining a gym is a good idea.

Aging and loosing strength eventually leads to balance issues and risk of falling. Bone density lose is also a result of loss of strength.

At the 48 Hour Fitness in Croton they have Boxing which I would be interested in. Did you know that martial artist don’t like fighting a western boxer. Pretty much it is hard to hurt a boxer, and because of superior upper body strength and the speed and power of the blows boxers are deadly opponents.

So the idea here is for Maggie and I to join the gym and get regular workouts to forestall part of the aging process that is actually reversible.

Our next door neighbors are a generation younger than us, but they already are suffering a decline in health. Very sad and tragic.

Did you know that exercise can help prevent Dementia. Blood flow to the brain is one key, but also you need mental and intellectual stimulation.

I could start reading Spanish aloud again to reclaim a fluency I once enjoyed. My learning Jazz guitar is another pursuit.

Maggie is now an established writer.

I am finding that retirement is actually a full-time job, but basically I only do what I want.

Cal
 
In Chinatown I came upon a Chinese Martial Artist teaching and sparing in a park two white hipsters.

The sparing was between two lefties. I was alone with my camera and began shooting. After a while I engaged with the instructor, and I mentioned the two lefty fighters. He told me they are both right handed, but he was training them to fight lefty to balance them out.

I certainly am a righty. My right arm physically is an inch longer than my left. As a result my right arm is overdeveloped when compared to my left, but I also have skill and talent fighting lefty.

When fighting lefty my right becomes a powerful jab.

I was considering getting some training, but of course committing the time and money…

Cal
 
Plan ”A” is build out the garage as a 400 square foot studio. This would mean parking the 1966 C-10 pickup and the Audi A4 in the driveway. A point was made that developing half the garage into a studio is almost the full cost of the whole garage. BTW I already have a 100 amp service to the garage via underground wiring.

Know that Maggie has no attachment to the Chevy C-10, but the Audi she likes stored in the garage.

Also know that up here we are the only people I know that parks their cars in the garage.

I favor this because I could set up my tube stereo in the garage studio along with guitars, bass’s, and amps. It would be a listening area, a practice room, and likely a recording studio.

I could set up my digital work station.

Not so sure the C-10 is that important to me. Might sell as is. Might pull the head, put on the road, and sell for about double.

Darkroom in the basement.

Attic for storage and pretty much just a closet.

A 12,000 BTU Mitsubishi single zone Mini-Split is about $2.3K for heating and cooling. SEER of 26.1 for an energy star rating and perhaps even a tax credit.

20x20 foot with 8 1/2 foot tall walls and a 4-sided pyramid hip roof.

I can see hanging a heavy bag and setting up the Concept 2 rower.

It would be a really nice studio, detached from the house. The house is small, only about 1500 square feet, the basement has low ceilings, and the attic is really only good for storage.

According to Devil Christian the garage is still a garage and not considered a living space to keep my taxes low. Not against the law to heat a garage or insulate it.

I still have to deal with “Woman-Factor.” Don’t tell Maggie.

Cal
 
The Bear Mountain Bridge will be 100 years old later this year. At that time it was built it was an engineering marvel and was the longest suspension bridge in the world.

The roadway leading up to the bridge from Peekskill is called the goat trail by locals because a Granite cliff was blasted into the side of a mountain to create a roadway that is both scary and dramatic.

In Jack (Kiro-Wack’s) novel “On The Road” that helped define a generation that called themselves the “Beat-Culture,” the main character basically in his hitch hiking journey across the U.S. gets stuck on the Peekskill side of the bridge and eventually heads back to NYC to begin his journey westward again.

Peekskill the City is never mentioned in the book, but through the text it is clearly Peekskill where his trip west hits a dead-end towards the beginning of the book. Pretty much the attitude in the book in modern terms would be WTF and pretty much rejecting any notion of society. Pretty much about a group of outcasts.

I read that the town of Cortlandt is going to redevelop the traffic circle leading to Bear Mountain and Route 9 north. A hotel, commercial businesses, and mixed residential. In my book a low lying area that clearly is a flood zone and not the best idea.

Camp Smith is nearby where National Guard train. Not uncommon to see flocks of military helicopters flying in formation over my house. Also a few blocks away from my Baby-Victorian is a New York State Armory.

I called my friend Arthur to find out about the squares I donated to C-HOP. Pretty much they were vacuumed up and gone in a blink of an eye. Pretty much he did not have to unload them from the van.

I made 17 as donations, and made 11 for myself. This was made from a cedar fence my neighbor took down that got replaced by a fugly vinyl fence. I understand that the vinyl fences are low maintenance, but I don’t see them lasting or being so durable. The fugly factor cheapens the value of any home IMHO.

I honor the age of my home (1912) out of respect. The old homes in Peekskill creates a historic tone. At this point new homes don’t excite me.

Cal
 
Last edited:
Thanks Robert for the encouragement. Pretty much my garage provides a pretty serious studio. Not too costly to build out.

Today the grandson again. Supposedly the 12 cubic feet of Vermiculite is at my local Home Cheapo. Hope to pick it up today.

My own special mix I made in the past was basically half peat moss, half compost (Cow manure). I figured the peat moss to lighten the soil and for water retention, and pretty much the manure for nutrients.

The “Mel’s Mix” is the same except with Vermiculite to loosen the soil further and for additional water retention. Understand that Mel’s Mix is for container gardens. Pretty much my intuition and perhaps my poor Chinese farmer genes pointed me in the correct direction.

Anyways I need to mix 36 cubic feet of Mel’s Mix.

“Maggie” wants to bake a chocolate birthday cake today for the grand daughter who is tuning 10.

Not the most productive day, but it should be good.

Cal
 
The house inspection happened on the house in Cortlandt. Pretty much the offer shortly will go to a signed contract. House is basically sold within two weeks of being on the market.

The more country life is further up in the Hudson Valley, but things get spread out and are more remote. Meanwhile Peekskill and Cortlandt, the most northern part of Westchester County along the Hudson River, is still not so bad a commute to NYC.

There was a time in history when inflation was high, housing prices jumped, and the prices of housing never receded. It was the late 70’s early 80’s. I believe we are in a similar situation today.

J. Powell does not think Stagflation is happening, but I see it getting entrenched. There is a worker shortage and this can feed a wage/price spiral. There was no real downturn to cause any price collapse to reset the economy. While inflation did moderate after the pandemic, inflation is still here.

In my book a soft landing only slowed down the rate of inflation, it did not kill inflation.

I know that one way to get rid of debt is inflation, but since our economy relies on finance so heavily there is also a savage penalty and a tipping point where big debt levels get difficult to service.

Ever get into problem debt with credit cards? Pretty much lots of austerity, suffering, and sacrifice eventually is required to untether the burden. Debt already is at record levels, and I do not see the required transition happening yet.

An unintended consequence is that low interest rates made the housing shortage worse. From 2007-2008 there was a good 15 years of underbuilding, making me believe that the housing shortage could last 15 years or more just to catch up.

Meanwhile I don’t see how other markets having fundementals that could extend out 15 years or more with current debt loads and deficits that are not sustainable. Sometime in the future a bad ending has to happen

A headline suggests if we go to war with either China or Russia that the conflict would involve both. We are in a space where it could be argued that we are at a certain level of “pre-hostility” already. We already are fighting an economic battle, and certainly China is no longer a favored nation.

There are still big temperature swings happening. We stored starter plants in Maggie’s She-Shack because it has skylights, but the plants need full sun, so now I place them in the yard by the pergola to recieve the light they need, and I shelter them in the shed at night.

Sunday I will be mixing up a 36 cubic foot batch of “Mel’s Mix” to load up my beds and planting will begin in earnest.

Saturday is a birthday event for the grand daughter: ten years old.

Today the grand daughter saw three-four deer in the marsh. She called them “donkeys” because for her they were so big.

Cal
 
I cut down on caffine. Went cold turkey to learn that my blood pressure was elevated due to coffee abuse.

On occasion when out I’ll have a coffee as a treat, but most days I have no coffee.

At home we do a 50/50 caff/no-cafe blend if I ever do a home brew.

Lately though I have days where I can’t seem to wake up. Pretty much a groggy day, all day, but a coffee wakes me up.

Hmmm.

Cal
 
It seems the piano tuner’s trick of winding the strings adds treble response for sure, but also increases string tension.

An experiment is to go with the lower tension strings and do the piano winding of 3-turns. I’m thinking this could be a good compromise between playability and getting more treble bite.

The HOG already has a deep warm sound, and the heavier strings emphasis that part of the tone spectrum, but what is lacking is the bite and bark of a real blues guitar. I’m finding the heavy strings to be too mellow.

Cal
 
Calzone said:
I cut down on caffine
Click to expand...
While I still enjoy coffee very much, these days I am drinking hot tea a bit more often. Green tea, especially sencha and jasmine are favorites. For black tea I prefer earl grey. Always loose leaf and organic brewed in a tea pot. A different sort of stimulation, calmer somehow.
 
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