NYC Journal

[Calzone]

Had a kink in my left shoulder this morning, and I used a 20 minute run to loosen it up and then a half hour walk during the heat of the day.

I realize I have some accumulated fatigue from the carryover from our dysfunctional family/crisis situation, and our intrusive neighbors.

“Maggie” is still recovering from the head bang, so I will go alone to the house party alone.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

There are reports that in Florida and Texas that the housing shortage is diminished due to climate change.

Severe storms, flooding, and wild fire hazard has cause a rise in available homes for sale in those two states.

I can see that happening along the southern east coast in the lowlands, say the Carolinas over time and in the future.

Kevin O’Leary, the “Shark,” also says that there are two good reasons why high home prices overall will persist: work from home is a game changer making the housing shortage persist; and secondly inflation.

Also being reported are the rent increases that go along with and follow inflation.

Then there is Barbara Corcoran’s view that home prices will go up at a certain if interest rates drop below a certain “tipping”point (maybe as low as just 6%).

Pretty much the supply demand imbalance will inflate prices. EZ-PZ math: shortages=higher prices.

Regression-to-the-mean, basically statistics, suggest that after a long period of disinflation (cheap imported goods due to globalization, off-shoring, and other results of cost cutting financial engineering) and around two decades of stagnant wages will unwind and is unwinding. Think the Greenspan era of the FED.

Could be 15-20 years before housing supply gets balanced. Underbuilding of homes existed after 2007-2008, then the Pandemic happened. Now the cost of raw materials and tariffs on Canadian lumber (20% tariff) which is where 25% our lumber comes from.

Kevin O’Leary, “Mr Wonderful, I think is correct: work from home is not going away.

There is a 25% tariff on finished Canadian lumber. Tariffs are immediate inflation.

A repeat of an important history lesson: 1929 Crash; 1932 Tariffs; and 1934 the Great Depression. Basically Tariffs made the 1929 Crash into the Great Depression.

Beware of Tariffs… Protectionism did not work: Protectionism made things worse.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

It was a nice house party last night, and I met some interesting people.

I curtailed my visit, and brought home a doggie bag for “Maggie.”

There was a certain amount of affluence and accomplishment present. A bit lux and upscale, perhaps even could be called crusty. Definitely a different vibe than Blue Collar Peekskill. I did not feel out of place, but then again I was not in my element.

We likely will have Sandy and Colleen over soon. Told them about our garden and the surprise cantaloupe patch. Their property is mostly wooded, but Colleen is/was an avid gardener.

A very progressive highly educated crowd. Many people from Boston.

A recent retired man my age that retired just before the Pandemic has a 270 year old house on 23 acres he is managing near the Connecticut border. The infrastructure of the heating and mechanicals is now 50 years old and is getting updated, and his new job is as a forester restoring and removing invasive plants with the goal of restoring the land so that it will be good for the next 100 years.

No Knotweed on his property.

Sandy is a rather serious electric bass player. Hmmm. He also wants to head out with me on the Empire State Trailway. There was a mentioning of mountain biking… I thought doing a fall ride on the carriage roads (gravel) in Lake Minowaska State Park in New Palz would be great. This is rather spectacular with the fall foliage and the white Granite cliffs, the Gunks, in the surrounds. Lots of climbing a descents. Can easily go too fast and ride off a cliff.

Anyways a building relationship. I also have all this firewood, about a fully loaded longbed pickup worth of firewood to gift Sandy. About half I split for just exercise.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

It was a nice house party last night, and I met some interesting people.

I curtailed my visit, and brought home a doggie bag for “Maggie.”

There was a certain amount of affluence and accomplishment present. A bit lux and upscale, perhaps even could be called crusty. Definitely a different vibe than Blue Collar Peekskill. I did not feel out of place, but then again I was not in my element.

We likely will have Sandy and Colleen over soon. Told them about our garden and the surprise cantaloupe patch. Their property is mostly wooded, but Colleen is/was an avid gardener.

A very progressive highly educated crowd. Many people from Boston.

A recent retired man my age that retired just before the Pandemic has a 270 year old house on 23 acres he is managing near the Connecticut border. The infrastructure of the heating and mechanicals is now 50 years old and is getting updated, and his new job is as a forester restoring and removing invasive plants with the goal of restoring the land so that it will be good for the next 100 years.

No Knotweed on his property.

Sandy is a rather serious electric bass player. Hmmm. He also wants to head out with me on the Empire State Trailway. There was a mentioning of mountain biking… I thought doing a fall ride on the carriage roads (gravel) in Lake Minowaska State Park in New Palz would be great.

Anyways a building relationship. I also have all this firewood, about a fully loaded longbed pickup worth of firewood to gift Sandy. About half I split for just exercise.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Around 2:00 AM I woke up, and instead of going to bed after going to the bathroom I went downstairs and practiced guitar for an hour.

Actually very productive. My practice involves lots of overlapping patterns, recognizing relationships, and kinda unstructured learning that deals mostly with internalizing, muscle memory, and flow.

“Maggie” tells me that se can see the growth, and that multitasking, something I’m bad at doing, is actually a good thing to promote to counter aging. Seems like I’m able to multitask better. Maybe the difficulty in playing guitar and singing can progress…

I end up getting out of bed later, but this is of no consequence, in fact I enjoy the lack of structure. I get the required private time to practice, and in a ways the total absence of distraction is very nice in a productive way.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

A war of attrition does not favor the Ukraine. The Russians are more dug in, have more weapons, more manpower, and more resources. It makes no sense to go head to head in a wrestling match with a bigger stronger opponent.

Hit and run, lightning strikes, guerrilla strikes, divide and conquer, and taking the fight to the opponent’s homeland makes sense to me. Russian bombs laid on its own soil not only destroys and and hurts infrastructure that has to be rebuilt, it also brings the war home.

It is unlikely the Ukraine can occupy territory in Russia that it now occupies. A withdrawal is required and likely, but then again the Russian vulnerability is a rather large border. I worry about going too far and bad timing of this “raid” when and if Russian reinforcements arrive meaning “ground troops.”

Speed, agility, and surprise are powerful assets to weaponized. Fear and anxiety can be weaponized. Russian bombs dropping on Russian soil is a mucho smart ploy.

In war effectively the goal is to destroy either the will to fight, make the war costly, or destroy the opponent’s economy or ability to fight. This new strategy does all of the above. It should be done again.

I encourage a more street fighting approach. The Russian Bear has displayed a lack of ability to react, and again in this incursion is a very-very effective way to divide and conquer a larger stronger opponent.

Pretty straight forward battle tactic: flank an enemy and hit them in a vulnerable area. Guerrilla tactics, hit and run, wear down a larger opponent using his own strength against himself. Weaponized speed, agility and surprise as assets.

Why was this not done earlier? I see it as an escalation, but like I say, “This is war and not a wrestling match.”

War is evil and should be avoided at all costs, but why all this un decisiveness? What a waste of life…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

WOW. Trenches are now being dug. The war in the Ukraine has moved beyond an excursion and now is a wider war with a new front on Russian soil.

The question is how far can the Ukraine go before Russia has the ability to stop them? This is now a new war…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Temperatures in the high 50’s last night. What a pleasant morning.

Been thinking of my friend Dan’s insight about Bob Fosey and how Bob Fosey became great by making his weakness a strength.

Also some wisdom from my older friend Andrew about Ego.

Lot’s of self reflection and growth happening, but also along with that the reasoning and limitations.

Did you know that the brain actually shrinks and atrophies, and that is the reason why head trauma becomes more serious as we age. “Maggie’s” MRI indicated a slight shrinkage that is somewhat age appropriate.

I also learned that stimulation that involves the senses can forestall this shrinkage. My guitar playing is tactile, involves hearing, and the abstract reasoning involved in recognizing and understanding patterns also is somewhat visual. The way I see my guitar playing is that it is like learning another language.

I have a learning disability. This is why I annoy MFM with my poor spelling and my misuse of vocabulary. I have a problem with processing linear and serial data like say a telephone number, spelling, and especially multi-tasking. Anyways this confusion means and translates into a bit of a gift because my thinking is confused and fluid and not rigid. Pretty much this can and is exploited to aid in my innate creativity.

My approach in the guitar now is rooted in just fundamentals to internalize things. Lots of things are happening as I expand this small universe of possibilities. Lot’s of non-thinking is happening that clearly leads to a relaxed open state of mind that spills over into my everyday life. I walk around living in this bubble I kinda created.

The relaxation and stimulation has a strong carry over, and it seems to also spill over into my physical exercise. There is a certain amount of meditation and a state of bliss happening.

No doubt I live in a self made bubble.

Cal

 

[Rayt]

Speaking of brain damage I am sure I killed many brain cells in Lhasa when I went to bed with untreated high altitude sickness and woke up the next morning paralyzed and half blind. I lost my bid for Mensa membership that year.

 

[Calzone]

Rayt,

In one of the books it explained the circumstance and medical conditions in depth of attitude sickness. In that story a woman died.

Sorry to hear about your case, and I hope you somewhat recovered.

I wonder about all the head trauma I experienced growing up between sports and street fighting. Don’t forget many-many bike crashes.

One thing I’m doing actively is maintaining blood flow to the brain through both moderate and heavy exercise. I just got off the phone and my Medicare Advantage Plan has the same gym locations as “Maggie” so we can both get free gym memberships.

Andrew and I were talking about brain cell death. If I remember correctly the brain goes through a major “culling” where synapses die off around the age of ten and the brain becomes more specialized. They say this is when the unlimited creativity of a child ends.

Anyways I hope you regained your sight and mobility.

All the best…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The “kids” on Saturday settled into an apartment not so far away from us, after closing on their house on Friday.

There are signs of resilience in the kids. The dad is going to take a leave of absence from work. Know there have been some scary threats from a kid in Yonkers who is involved in a gang, and posting of photographs on the Internet of the father and his vehicle.

The apartment actually suits them better then their house. More of a community, more walkable, there is a pool, and a playground is going to be built. The apartment is as large as their old house, minus the basement and garage. The rent though is a lot of money.

So perhaps the dad will be a stay at home dad, and the mucho expensive childcare could offset a big chunk of lost income. Still a lot of belt tightening has to happen, but that adjustment and skill still has to be acquired, in fact it now is a “forced move” like in the game of chess.

So on one hand we are less worried, but we of course remained mucho concerned. Basically we are still worried. Adult children are involved so we stay on the sidelines…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Don’t tell anyone, but Renold’s Hills the old hippy commune that is a gated community is actually a micro paradise of sorts that is other worldly. You kinda feel transferred to perhaps way upstate, or maybe somewhere in Vermont.

Of interest to me because it is basically a 3 season community with only 3 legally year round households out of 70 households and basically just a summer community it has low taxes. HOA fees though…

Pretty much once just a campground for leftist hikers, that went from a tent community/commune to a tiny cottage commune.

There is a wilderness section that is of interest to me because we could secure one of the homes that borders on the wilderness boundary and pretty much have a remote sanctuary just walking distance from our home.

On my way to walking up the hill I came upon a neighbor that lives on my street who was walking his dog. We know his wife as the environmentalist, and activist. For more than 3 1/2 years I knew this man and where he lived, but not his name, so I finally approached him, asked him his name, and shook his hand. I also apologized for being private and reserve all this time.

So basically “Maggie” and Cortney our neighbor up the hill on our street are the women with PhD’s on the block. Eric and I are kinda the on-tour-Rogers for the women who are the activists and are the support shadows.

Here is some smut: Eric tells me that Terry, the freeloader who lived in the now empty house got out of his car and had a fist fight right where we were standing with some other dog walker, while Eric stood by with his own dog and family.

Then I told him part of the story where Karen died, the owner of the house, but Terry the freeloader felt entitled to the house, and told me that he was going to buy a gun and go down fighting.

“Maggie,” a trained Social Worker tells me that the people that display this type of behavior and threats, don’t really fit the profile of people that actually do violence and are just blowing off steam.

I can see that, in fact I kinda fit that profile, and in fact it it is a safer way to process aggression and anger.

So Eric and I kinda try and lay low and mind our own business. I mentioned how crazy the world is, and how it is a fraught minefield. Trying to mind you own business and laying low is actually hard.

Know that our intrusive neighbors have a feud with Eric and his wife. A lot of this involves politics. Anyways mighty extreme and crazy.

Of course no mention of my intrusive neighbors, and no need. Subtext for our conversation was kinda understood without saying anything. No sidebar needed or required.

Also know I saw Terry on my dead end pull out a baseball bat out of his garage to assault a man getting out of his truck in my dead end.

In a recent report in U.S. News and World Report Westchester, Dutchess, and Rockland counties are three of the safest counties to live in. Kinda funny and an interesting fact when considering all the craziness just on my block.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

ALERT: Gold is $2511 and over $2.5K again; and oild is priced just under $80.00.

Is a war going to escalate? Remember that 4 out of 5 recessions are caused by energy prices.

The DOW is down, but the other indexes are still positive and remain in the black.

Something is brewing…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I actually thought today would be just a boring day.

Walked “Maggie” two laps in Blue Mountain Preserve for blood flow and to exercise the woman. She still feels out of it, but this is after two days of rest.

Having a retreat and a wilderness sanctuary within a short walk from our Baby-Victorian is a nice fantasy to have. I would say the 50 acres that make up the private gated compound have the 70 dwellings on perhaps on just 20 acres. Know that two city blocks and the street that runs in between the two blocks is 10 acres.

There also is a buffer zone…

Pretty much it would be the ultimate studio, a sanctuary of sorts, and just so close and convenient. The HOA fees would be a concern, but then access to a pool. Common meeting areas.

Pretty much would fill a dream that Maggie has to be mucho close to nature, and could be a guest house for friends and family.

Andrew showed me a small cottage that likely will go up for sale. It is not in the fringe that I desire, evidently the woman owner has Cancer. Andrew will let me know if any of the fringe cottages become available. The Cancer cottage I would gauge at about 600-700 square feet, but for me it is about location-location-location.

I want privacy, seclusion, and nature for no money and convenience.

The one way in: one way out is a long steep hill that is perfect for interval training. Running/sprinting up the hill has to build up acceleration. A college baseball team used sprints up a hill just for this purpose to improve running the bases. I have to remember this. Intensity to build speed and acceleration. Pretty much I have this ideal training ground in my backyard almost literally.

Hmmm. EZ-PZ to have a tough and speedy workout.

Reynolds’s Hills was established in 1929. There is some history there that involves unions and garment workers. Pretty much lefties.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

An Iranian attack is anticipated. Remember the assassination that happened in Iran that breached Iranian sovernty? A response is expected.

This is the reason for a jump in oil and gold prices.

Cal

 

[Austintatious]

Pretty much would fill a dream that Maggie has to be mucho close to nature, and could be a guest house for friends and family.

This is probably a sound idea. I read that many folks are pulling funds out of stocks and such due to current trends. They are investing in Realestate and precious metals as a safer place to store wealth.

 

[Calzone]

Austin,

A bit of a dream. Andrew told me one cottage was destroyed by a tree that fell in a storm, The woman just took the insurance and didn’t repair to take the loss. Another had a fire, and a man died of smoke inhalation. That cottage was then torn down.

There are only 70 cottages remain on the 50 acres, and they are packed together rather densely. I specifically would want one that fringes on the undeveloped land.

This was a hippy leftist commune established in 1929. There are common buildings for meetings, pot luck events, yoga classes, that includes a stage. There is a mail building with a public bathroom that is kinda Post Office for the community. A pool, and tennis courts.

Some of these dwellings are only a few hundred square feet. I would want and prefer a smaller dwelling. Pretty much it would be our art studio. How cool would that be.

The Baby-Victorian back-backyard has an ideal southern exposure for gardening. Adding an ADU or a dwelling would disrupt and diminish capabilities we already enjoy. It also is a great place to entertain and a safe place for the grand children. The view is spectacular and has “you suck-factor.”

These 3 season dwellings are not so costly, but the HOA fees I have to enquire about. Technically we would not be living there, Dogs are not allowed by the HOA, but that does not effect us.

The hill that is the road is a steep climb of about a quarter mile. At the very top is the entrance to the community. In the winter I can somewhat see the outline of some cabins through the barren trees and forest faintly from my back-backyard way in the distance.

In between the Baby-Victorian’s back-backyard is a plunge into a valley of about 30-35 feet that holds a marsh, a frog pond, and a forested hillside that masks the entire community of the remaining 70 dwellings from our view. We literally reside at the very end of the City of Peekskill, a Hudson River town of 25K inhabatents.

“Maggie” complains that all the construction equipment in our dead end has disturbed our wildlife. This is a bit momentary: the replacement of natural gas lines that are over a hundred years old.

The morning birds avoid the section by our dead end. She enjoys being surrounded by nature, and it calms her. Recently she has lost the sense of isolation and now enjoys solitude and peace. The need to be occupied, busy and chronically in a frenetic mode to feel alive is now gone.

BTW Reynolds’s Hills is kinda hidden and not many people know of it. A separate detached studio in this quiet and remote secluded area would be ideal for us. No need to drive further upstate for wildlife, peace and seclusion. Respite is a short walk away.

I figure it would be a waiting game for us, and because of our friend Andrew we could be insiders. It would be too cool o have a retreat/studio. Don’t tell our intrusive neighbors. LOL.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Our garden has produced a couple of broods of rabbits. They fed on our garden, and are close to being almost domesticated, at least they are not afraid or skittish to either “Maggie” or me. My across the street neighbor pointed to a rabbit waiting on our front lawn. I was told that the rabbit is waiting for them to go inside their house so our rabbit could intrude and cross the street.

My neighbor was not pleased, but inside I was laughing and smiling.

Pretty much we restored the habitat so much that we are kinda directly responsible for the rabbit infestation. Same with the chipmunks. As we depleted the Knotweed natural habitat returned. This is what has calmed “Maggie.”

Today I heard the sounds of red tail hawks overhead. Earlier in the late spring I saw a red tail hawk perched on a dead tree overlooking our marsh. I have also seen these birds with an owl like face called harriers.

What is not to love? I don’t care for the deer.

Cal

 

[Prest_400]

An Iranian attack is anticipated. Remember the assassination that happened in Iran that breached Iranian sovernty? A response is expected.

This is the reason for a jump in oil and gold prices.

Cal

The DOW is down, but the other indexes are still positive and remain in the black.

Something is brewing…

Cal

I like how business news paper over here have the (small) headline: "Bank of America does not believe in a recession happening anymore."
Back when I took Macroeconomics, it was funny to know that a lot is just perception despite it attempting to be "science". Expectations are modelled and that is a self fulfilling prophecy. Well, that headline and this point, we already talked about media earlier on.

Again mucho war and conflict, let's see. It was interesting to read you guys about Iraq and much respect to Phil and all the veterans being where they were; despite what these wars turned out to be. I unfortunately take a certain distance to all of that, as the scale just becomes overwhelming as an individual.
A now good friend of mine described it well: He was minding his business at a table with others when the conflict discussion arised and was pressured to "take a side and opinion". He told me: "There is well enough too much polarisation and bad mood around, let me just be and slack out". He taught me that being a blue collar relaxed authentic person is much better to hang out than overarchievers with prestige and social networking.

Nature cottage plan is good. Was talking to a friend about real estate and I realise that it's good that back home I will have the family houses.
I do have a plan of sorts if we go into a bad recession again. Enjoying the mountains for a while and taking up biking / hiking mountain passes. Even going to Asia and taking some period of backpacking. Going back to the topic of stress and anxiety, quite a lot of it is due to disconnect to our roots and nature.

 

[Calzone]

Jorde,

They say if you are farming that about a third of your crop will get lost to wildlife. Oh-well.

Strawberries are like ice cream for deer, peas and string beans are ice cream for rabbits. I was warned by my neighbors that water melons can be hollowed out by chipmunks. Oh-well.

They also say gardening can extend longevity, and I think your point of returning to nature reduces stress and anxiety.

5 years of life expectancy was added to my life when we moved out of NYC. The reason cited was not living in an urban area with air pollution, but I know the less frenetic lifestyle has less stress and creates less anxiety. I know my quality of life is higher here in Peekskill.

Also because I’m somewhat more removed from population density I feel more free. I’m able to relax more…

I am glad “Maggie” seems to have hit her stride. A lot of my philosophy (beliefs) seemed to reframe her thinking. I shared that singing lesson that just framed singing as a gift, meaning no strings attached or having any expectations, needing feedback, or wanting to garner any response. Pretty much no monetary gain attached either.

I pointed out when Maggie started her blog, perhaps for the first 4 years it fit this description of just being a gift, it was enjoyable, free expression, and pure in its creativity. Then it became commodified and commercialized…

A new framing of art as a “gift” where no intention exists remains pure and is free of anxiety and self concousness that negatively effect being in the moment, being authentic, and dilutes performance. Maggie is now in this space in her writing.

On her SubStax she has all these pledges for payment that she has not activated. I asked her about these people who are willing to pay for subscriptions. She intends to still serve her audience for free, but if some want to offer support they can. Hmmmm… I’ll just stay quiet.

I hate wars, really hard to justify. Genocide is happening, and using “broken window theory” the economic loss is a complete write off. In the Ukraine I wanted it to be a quicker war to end faster. The entrenching going on to maintain control of territory I believe is a tactical mistake. Hit and run tactics using speed, agility and surprise is modern warfare, and these tactics heavily favor the Ukrainians.

According to Maggie’s training Putin’s verbal threat of use of nuclear weapons is just saber rattling if he fits the profile. Hmmm… I hope this is true.

How can we not be anxious in such a destabilized world that we live in. Pretty much almost everything is fraught, but I share here the struggle of one man who is just trying to live in peace. Not easy to even “Just mind my own business.”

I really can’t because of intrusive neighbors, racism, rival politics, and even street violence and the threat of gun violence right here within one block of 13 homes.

How sad is that?

Cal