Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A green screen in the early morning turned red.
Gold bumped up, and the price of oil is down to $68.XX suggesting an economic slowdown.
The next few days leading to Friday’s job report will be interesting.
Separately Ray Dalio is suggesting a debt death spiral for the U.S. within the next 3 years. Pretty much debt, interest on debt, and being able to roll over debt into new debt becomes unsustainable. Pretty much we have been on this path for a long time, and the only response was more and more deficit spending.
Pretty much you can’t live by borrowing money indefinitely.
The only way out would be some very steep cuts along with an economic miracle, but that ain’t happening.
“Look out below…”
Cal
Gold bumped up, and the price of oil is down to $68.XX suggesting an economic slowdown.
The next few days leading to Friday’s job report will be interesting.
Separately Ray Dalio is suggesting a debt death spiral for the U.S. within the next 3 years. Pretty much debt, interest on debt, and being able to roll over debt into new debt becomes unsustainable. Pretty much we have been on this path for a long time, and the only response was more and more deficit spending.
Pretty much you can’t live by borrowing money indefinitely.
The only way out would be some very steep cuts along with an economic miracle, but that ain’t happening.
“Look out below…”
Cal
DownUnder
Nikon Nomad
An interesting take on a seemingly endless conundrum for you Americans.
This is why so many of us will now no longer visit your shores.
But I was not aware of Canada's gun laws. In the 1950s every male in our farming family (on my mom's side) had guns. Which they used sensibly, excepting one cousin who would go to the forest and shoot all living things he saw. Which totally put me off guns by the time I was in my mid-teens and my own mind about such issues was more developed.
Said cousin later had a moral turnaround, and aggavee up his guns in his 20s. But he was always an enthusiastic trout fisherman and enjoyed spearing eels through holes chopped in river ice in the winters.
He passed away a few years ago, in his late 70s. By then he was long a committed conservationist, and he taught his three sons to respect wildlife.
So people do change. But as for guns, eh heh...
PS Positive and encouraging news about your cancer, Cal - but be always vigilant.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
My friend Mike the Skinny Hipster called today to see how I’m doing.
Mike’s life for close to two year’s has been hell. He went to Croatia to meet his girlfriend’s parents, and pretty much his girlfriend could not get back into the U.S. Mike married her and then went through the process with the State Department to gain her entrance, but that took over a year.
She got back to New York on December 22d of last year. A week later and it still would of been pending.
Then AI is changing the fashion photography industry. Mike is a working pro fashion photographer. Mike says getting work is harder, and in 2-3 years there won’t be any need for his services.
So now he is regrouping to be a “Wedding” photographer.
Mike’s wife was in the top 20 rankings as a tennis pro in Croatia, and she got a tennis scholarship here in the U.S.
I would consider Mike and his wife as being ultra-fit athletes. Mike is a psycho on a track bike. Pretty much a complete wack job.
Anyways I’m glad they are together again. A while back then rode their gravel bikes on the viaduct from Madhattan to Peekskill to visit us during a high heat index summer day. I BBQ’ed a feast. “Maggie” fdid not understand how important it was to feed them immediately upon arrival.
They took the train back to NYC.
When we lived in the luxury apartment in East Harlem, Mike and his gal lived one floor right above us.
Cal
Mike’s life for close to two year’s has been hell. He went to Croatia to meet his girlfriend’s parents, and pretty much his girlfriend could not get back into the U.S. Mike married her and then went through the process with the State Department to gain her entrance, but that took over a year.
She got back to New York on December 22d of last year. A week later and it still would of been pending.
Then AI is changing the fashion photography industry. Mike is a working pro fashion photographer. Mike says getting work is harder, and in 2-3 years there won’t be any need for his services.
So now he is regrouping to be a “Wedding” photographer.
Mike’s wife was in the top 20 rankings as a tennis pro in Croatia, and she got a tennis scholarship here in the U.S.
I would consider Mike and his wife as being ultra-fit athletes. Mike is a psycho on a track bike. Pretty much a complete wack job.
Anyways I’m glad they are together again. A while back then rode their gravel bikes on the viaduct from Madhattan to Peekskill to visit us during a high heat index summer day. I BBQ’ed a feast. “Maggie” fdid not understand how important it was to feed them immediately upon arrival.
They took the train back to NYC.
When we lived in the luxury apartment in East Harlem, Mike and his gal lived one floor right above us.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Another big drop in the markets.
The curse of when Philly wins a championship is kinking in: the markets tank in a historic manner…
Gold is back over $2900.00…
Oil is down predicting less demand and a slowdown.
Friday’s employment numbers could be the exclamation point predicting a recession.
Tomorrow the Canadian and Mexican tariffs begin in earnest.
I think raw building materials like aluminum, steel and lumber will hurt a lot from Canada, and food prices from Mexico where we get 40% of our produce, fruit and nuts.
Time to load up the truck on nuts and nut butters…
Nuts are a great source of plant based protein…
Cal
The curse of when Philly wins a championship is kinking in: the markets tank in a historic manner…
Gold is back over $2900.00…
Oil is down predicting less demand and a slowdown.
Friday’s employment numbers could be the exclamation point predicting a recession.
Tomorrow the Canadian and Mexican tariffs begin in earnest.
I think raw building materials like aluminum, steel and lumber will hurt a lot from Canada, and food prices from Mexico where we get 40% of our produce, fruit and nuts.
Time to load up the truck on nuts and nut butters…
Nuts are a great source of plant based protein…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
When you expand out the DOW charts 42,000 would mark a threshold of a “triple-bottom.” When and if that gets breached this Friday could mean “game-over,” and a new bear-market begins.
“Look out below…”
Gold could get might close or breach $3K.
Tomorrow is another day…
Cal
“Look out below…”
Gold could get might close or breach $3K.
Tomorrow is another day…
Cal
Retro-Grouch
Veteran
It's all out of our hands ("us" being the little folks of no consequence). All we can do is lay low, economize, and hope for some (unlikely) sanity in Washington.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Here in New York we have a pretty big sales tax.
These tariffs are basically a new sales tax, but at a Federal level. Pretty much a consumption tax.
Best to have what you need stockpiled and not consume much. Future purchases will cost more. This is how I can justify the last “hurrah” of spending, then I tighten up tighter than a clam removed from water. I’m kinda there right now.
I finished up those 5 quarts of plum tomatoes. They condensed down to less than half with my simmering. The tomatoes are thick now. I would not call these tomatoes sauce, they are just condensed plum tomatoes without their skins. This was not a lot of work, and next time I will scale things up for efficiency.
This season I will scale up big time.
“Maggie” does this great Prima-Vera with eggplant and zucchini. Mucho good. Very healthy over a Trader Joe’s whole wheat pasta.
Cal
These tariffs are basically a new sales tax, but at a Federal level. Pretty much a consumption tax.
Best to have what you need stockpiled and not consume much. Future purchases will cost more. This is how I can justify the last “hurrah” of spending, then I tighten up tighter than a clam removed from water. I’m kinda there right now.
I finished up those 5 quarts of plum tomatoes. They condensed down to less than half with my simmering. The tomatoes are thick now. I would not call these tomatoes sauce, they are just condensed plum tomatoes without their skins. This was not a lot of work, and next time I will scale things up for efficiency.
This season I will scale up big time.
“Maggie” does this great Prima-Vera with eggplant and zucchini. Mucho good. Very healthy over a Trader Joe’s whole wheat pasta.
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
5 quarts of plum tomatoes (zip-loc bags) after simmering off the excess water only amounted to about 20 ounces of condensed tomatoes.
Kinda amazing. Also did not require a lot of work or effort.
Figure that a jar of Trader Joe’s sauce is 24 ounces. At CVS they have these containers that are 24 ounces that are perfect that are somewhat flat about the right size to store a sandwich. Pretty efficient…
I love it…
POSTSCRIPT: Not a bad cleanup…
Cal
Kinda amazing. Also did not require a lot of work or effort.
Figure that a jar of Trader Joe’s sauce is 24 ounces. At CVS they have these containers that are 24 ounces that are perfect that are somewhat flat about the right size to store a sandwich. Pretty efficient…
I love it…
POSTSCRIPT: Not a bad cleanup…
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
A new dude has been born into the family. 7 pounds 4 ounces.
He resides in Austin Texas, and we attended the wedding down there pre-pandemic.
Pretty awesome.
Cal
He resides in Austin Texas, and we attended the wedding down there pre-pandemic.
Pretty awesome.
Cal
Retro-Grouch
Veteran
Congratulations!
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Options are getting crazy as “Stock Market Crash Insurance” is being bought.
Big money is buying a hedge in anticipation of a stock market drop is being predicted.
Place your bet. Remember that the Eagles won the Super Bowl, and that when Philly has a championship team the superstition and history is that the markets tank.
Do you follow the big money? Do you believe history? Do you believe in superstition?
Friday a trap-door might open. “Look out below…”
I wonder when the lack of rule of law kicks in. The markets don’t like uncertainty and madness is going on. Remember without rule of law you have no government, nor an economy, because there is no trust.
Lack of confidence replaces rule of law. Bets are being made by big money predicting a crash.
Do you think a recession is underway? Friday could be the tell all.
Cal
Big money is buying a hedge in anticipation of a stock market drop is being predicted.
Place your bet. Remember that the Eagles won the Super Bowl, and that when Philly has a championship team the superstition and history is that the markets tank.
Do you follow the big money? Do you believe history? Do you believe in superstition?
Friday a trap-door might open. “Look out below…”
I wonder when the lack of rule of law kicks in. The markets don’t like uncertainty and madness is going on. Remember without rule of law you have no government, nor an economy, because there is no trust.
Lack of confidence replaces rule of law. Bets are being made by big money predicting a crash.
Do you think a recession is underway? Friday could be the tell all.
Cal
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Austintatious
Well-known
The thing about "these days" is that there is almost too much information out there and it's mostly biased in one way or another. As you point out above, a nation cannot go on borrowing money in order to operate. It has been pointed out that the government is the largest borrower in the world. When the FED raises the interest rates to slow inflation down, it causes the debt to increase. What is going on at this time has been talked about by many Presidents before Orangeman but none have really done much about cutting spending until now. Sharing a couple of articles that I found somewhat helpful.
Cutting Government Waste – But (D)ifferent | Armstrong Economics
https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=5hpd61WfMvk
www.armstrongeconomics.com
Buckle up, it's going to get bumpy !
Brace for Economic Turbulence - Daily Reckoning
True change is finally here, and in the short-term, that means pain.
dailyreckoning.com
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Austin,
I would argue that Bill Clinton was overlooked by the Armstrong Economic view.
Fact is even though a Democrat that he gutted Welfare and placed term-limits on this assistance. Also by the end of his second term our government actually held a surplus. There was a balanced budget.
After the year 2000, starting with George W. Bush deficit spending started, the balanced budget and the surplus became history.
So deficit spending happened under George W. Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden and again Trump.
Someone drank the cool-aid, and bias is present that is pro-orange.
BTW I’m not a fan of Clinton as a President or as a man.
At this point in history the U.S. debt is 34% of the worlds government debt. 36.2% of our GDP is government spending (both Federal and State), and 23% of our GDP is Federal spending.
Cal
I would argue that Bill Clinton was overlooked by the Armstrong Economic view.
Fact is even though a Democrat that he gutted Welfare and placed term-limits on this assistance. Also by the end of his second term our government actually held a surplus. There was a balanced budget.
After the year 2000, starting with George W. Bush deficit spending started, the balanced budget and the surplus became history.
So deficit spending happened under George W. Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden and again Trump.
Someone drank the cool-aid, and bias is present that is pro-orange.
BTW I’m not a fan of Clinton as a President or as a man.
At this point in history the U.S. debt is 34% of the worlds government debt. 36.2% of our GDP is government spending (both Federal and State), and 23% of our GDP is Federal spending.
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
On the second article I stopped reading it when it mentioned “for the past 5 decades the U.S. has been on an unsustainable path.”
Again, the Federal Surplus that was squandered was not counted. I am not discounting 25 years since the year 2000 that are clearly deficit spending, but why do they omit a surplus and a period of a balanced budget?
Bias again, and an erasure of history.
Kool-aid again…
Cal
Again, the Federal Surplus that was squandered was not counted. I am not discounting 25 years since the year 2000 that are clearly deficit spending, but why do they omit a surplus and a period of a balanced budget?
Bias again, and an erasure of history.
Kool-aid again…
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Again, a history lesson.
In the early 90’s Canada lost it’s triple A bond rating. Pretty much this was during a liberal government, and they endured a decade of serious austerity to regain their triple A bond rating.
They went methodically cutting government spending line-by-line.
So tell me what happens when buying U.S. debt is deemed risky, and our bonds get degraded. Do you think we could do what the Canadians did?
I don’t think so, our population is too large, too fragmented, and too divided.
The reason I take notice, is Ray Dalio, Larry Summers, and others are seeing the debt spiral crisis happening sooner rather than later. Could be bad timing, but it looks like it might happen under Trump’s second term. This is the point I am making, or trying to make.
Dalio may be wrong with his timing, and I have disagreed with his logic and thinking before. Kinda funny though as far as respect for him as a man I put him as not being so great because of things he has done that are shameful.
At this point, the faith and trust of the U.S. government is being destroyed. This does not promote buying U.S. bonds. Clearly an unintended consequence. With the clear breakdown in rule of law why trust buying U.S. Bonds?
Again without rule of law you really can’t have a government or an economy. Trust and faith come though rule of law, clearly there are many breakdowns.
Now rule of law has been replaced by rule of the jungle. The U.S. has become a bully.
Trump has gone bankrupt several times. Basically he has a history of defaulting. How do you make a casino a failed business?
Ill-will does not sell U.S. debt. A lot of harm is being done that can’t be undone. This is both opinion and fact.
At a certain tipping point, investors will realize or question will the U.S. go into default and not honor its debt obligations. The only way to garner buyers is to raise rates to attract buyers to dismiss the risk real or percieved.
Did you see the head of Social Security reporting and giving a heads up that payments might get delayed over the next 30-90 days? The word “collapse” was used…
Cal
In the early 90’s Canada lost it’s triple A bond rating. Pretty much this was during a liberal government, and they endured a decade of serious austerity to regain their triple A bond rating.
They went methodically cutting government spending line-by-line.
So tell me what happens when buying U.S. debt is deemed risky, and our bonds get degraded. Do you think we could do what the Canadians did?
I don’t think so, our population is too large, too fragmented, and too divided.
The reason I take notice, is Ray Dalio, Larry Summers, and others are seeing the debt spiral crisis happening sooner rather than later. Could be bad timing, but it looks like it might happen under Trump’s second term. This is the point I am making, or trying to make.
Dalio may be wrong with his timing, and I have disagreed with his logic and thinking before. Kinda funny though as far as respect for him as a man I put him as not being so great because of things he has done that are shameful.
At this point, the faith and trust of the U.S. government is being destroyed. This does not promote buying U.S. bonds. Clearly an unintended consequence. With the clear breakdown in rule of law why trust buying U.S. Bonds?
Again without rule of law you really can’t have a government or an economy. Trust and faith come though rule of law, clearly there are many breakdowns.
Now rule of law has been replaced by rule of the jungle. The U.S. has become a bully.
Trump has gone bankrupt several times. Basically he has a history of defaulting. How do you make a casino a failed business?
Ill-will does not sell U.S. debt. A lot of harm is being done that can’t be undone. This is both opinion and fact.
At a certain tipping point, investors will realize or question will the U.S. go into default and not honor its debt obligations. The only way to garner buyers is to raise rates to attract buyers to dismiss the risk real or percieved.
Did you see the head of Social Security reporting and giving a heads up that payments might get delayed over the next 30-90 days? The word “collapse” was used…
Cal
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Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Granted that this is taken out of context, and can’t be confirmed because it was said to be in private conversation with Wiliam F. Buckley, but it is often attributed to Henry Kissinger.
“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
Cal
“It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal.”
Cal
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
The markets today are mildly in the red, gold is up, and oil is lower suggesting less demand and a slowdown.
Still early. Yesterday’s losses were steep. Could be some bounce today, but I suspect more negative “bias” and eventually the downtrend and sell off to continue. 42,000 on the DOW marks a triple bottom, and this threshold if violated points to a bear market, and a likely painful one because of debt loads.
Another shift will happen as the U.S. Dollar weakens as U.S. assets become less popular.
Friday could be a bad day for the markets if employment numbers look bad. Gold is displaying some violent swings, so in turn expect lots of volatility, but the price of oil ratcheting lower surely points to lower demand and slower growth.
This will be an interesting week. Tariffs become real and not just banter. In other words history begins and a path is being chosen.
Likely outcome is stagflation: high unemployment combined with inflation.
Be prepared for the start of a new Federal Sales Tax disguised as “Tariffs.” Also trade wars will begin, and the world economy is at risk. Say goodbye to the world you once knew…
“Moo,” said the Pig.
Cal
Still early. Yesterday’s losses were steep. Could be some bounce today, but I suspect more negative “bias” and eventually the downtrend and sell off to continue. 42,000 on the DOW marks a triple bottom, and this threshold if violated points to a bear market, and a likely painful one because of debt loads.
Another shift will happen as the U.S. Dollar weakens as U.S. assets become less popular.
Friday could be a bad day for the markets if employment numbers look bad. Gold is displaying some violent swings, so in turn expect lots of volatility, but the price of oil ratcheting lower surely points to lower demand and slower growth.
This will be an interesting week. Tariffs become real and not just banter. In other words history begins and a path is being chosen.
Likely outcome is stagflation: high unemployment combined with inflation.
Be prepared for the start of a new Federal Sales Tax disguised as “Tariffs.” Also trade wars will begin, and the world economy is at risk. Say goodbye to the world you once knew…
“Moo,” said the Pig.
Cal
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Phil_F_NM
Camera hacker
Latest estimates are that over 6000 Veterans have been fired from Federal jobs so far. Veterans comprise approximately 30% of the Federal workforce, so for the party that wants to support the troops and Veterans, what kind of a signal is this?
A non-Veteran colleague of mine was just fired by the regime, from the Philadelphia VAMC Community Living Center. This is a long term rehabilitation facility also with 8 hospice beds. The firing of my colleague is one of those cases where mental health, movement, community engagement and overall holistic non-medical based health is not a priority and will suffer. Veterans will experience lower morale and die sooner.
Phil
A non-Veteran colleague of mine was just fired by the regime, from the Philadelphia VAMC Community Living Center. This is a long term rehabilitation facility also with 8 hospice beds. The firing of my colleague is one of those cases where mental health, movement, community engagement and overall holistic non-medical based health is not a priority and will suffer. Veterans will experience lower morale and die sooner.
Phil
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Nokton48
Veteran
Morning Devil Cal,
Moo. I was working up on working out my bubble. Collecting economically is a good diversion.
All Cleaned Up New Glass Table Overhead 8x10 Norma by Nokton48, on Flickr
Went to MPEX and picked up Super White and Studio Black Seamless Paper 1/2 wide size, then cut it down with my Chop Saw in the garage. The paper burned and smoked quite a bit but got a nice clean cut, here the Super White is installed. Boxed up all the clutter and shelved it. On the right is my 8x10 Overhead Set 8x10 Sinar Norma, I've been shooting tabletop with this, and the 165mm and 121mm Super Angulons. A Friend wants to sell me his 210mm Super Angulon, I will get it eventually, that will complete my set. I'm enjoying shooting a lot of test film with my Minolta SRT's, testing the new lighting. A lot of fun. And I need a better way to hang the custom cut paper rolls, I have ideas on how to do it with stuff from Lowes.
Moo. I was working up on working out my bubble. Collecting economically is a good diversion.
All Cleaned Up New Glass Table Overhead 8x10 Norma by Nokton48, on FlickrWent to MPEX and picked up Super White and Studio Black Seamless Paper 1/2 wide size, then cut it down with my Chop Saw in the garage. The paper burned and smoked quite a bit but got a nice clean cut, here the Super White is installed. Boxed up all the clutter and shelved it. On the right is my 8x10 Overhead Set 8x10 Sinar Norma, I've been shooting tabletop with this, and the 165mm and 121mm Super Angulons. A Friend wants to sell me his 210mm Super Angulon, I will get it eventually, that will complete my set. I'm enjoying shooting a lot of test film with my Minolta SRT's, testing the new lighting. A lot of fun. And I need a better way to hang the custom cut paper rolls, I have ideas on how to do it with stuff from Lowes.
Calzone
Gear Whore #1
Hurting Vets is just plain wrong. Pure evil…
I got my PSA results and it came in at 1.12. I still have Cancer that now needs cleanup via radiation treatment (4-6 weeks, 5 days a week) plus hormone therapy (chemical castration).
Waiting to hear from my urologist.
Went to the Philly Flower Show and did an overnight stay. We stayed at a historic hotel by the Customs House in the Old City section. Perhaps we did 6-7 miles of walking, and it fatigued us, as we have been inactive. Point is we lost a lot and need to get back being more active.
150 miles to Philly from Peekskill is about a 3 hour drive. We timed it right to avoid congestion and traffic.
Perhaps it was nearly 25 years ago when we last attended the Philly Flower Show. This year it had a big section of home goods venders, and even home improvement like gutters and windows. Big displays, but a lot less smaller flower venders. In a way a bit disappointing.
“Maggie” and I, ex Madhattanites, found ourselves a bit overwhelmed by the noise and crowds at the Terminal Market and the Convention Center, but overall the rest of Philly was a lot less busy. We saw a lot of redevelopment near the riverfront and on Arch Street. Much has changed.
Last time we were in Philly was during the Pandemic…
Happy to be at home. Maggie now identifies as a farm girl.
I guess we are still public figures because Maggie was recognized by someone who attended the Woodstock Book Festival at the Flower Show.
***************
My urologist prepared us well, the PSA above 0.1 we knew is a possibility. No surprise here. I have an aggressive Cancer.
Oh-well.
Last minute update: It seems my PSA post-surgery is significant.
*********************
So I am confused. Do we have tariffs or not. Is this another head fake? Households, businesses, and the markets don’t like uncertainty. So Tariffs that started Tuesday, yesterday, might again get unwound. This happened last month, so here we are again.
The markets turned green in response to the suggestion that tariffs might get moderated.
Cal
I got my PSA results and it came in at 1.12. I still have Cancer that now needs cleanup via radiation treatment (4-6 weeks, 5 days a week) plus hormone therapy (chemical castration).
Waiting to hear from my urologist.
Went to the Philly Flower Show and did an overnight stay. We stayed at a historic hotel by the Customs House in the Old City section. Perhaps we did 6-7 miles of walking, and it fatigued us, as we have been inactive. Point is we lost a lot and need to get back being more active.
150 miles to Philly from Peekskill is about a 3 hour drive. We timed it right to avoid congestion and traffic.
Perhaps it was nearly 25 years ago when we last attended the Philly Flower Show. This year it had a big section of home goods venders, and even home improvement like gutters and windows. Big displays, but a lot less smaller flower venders. In a way a bit disappointing.
“Maggie” and I, ex Madhattanites, found ourselves a bit overwhelmed by the noise and crowds at the Terminal Market and the Convention Center, but overall the rest of Philly was a lot less busy. We saw a lot of redevelopment near the riverfront and on Arch Street. Much has changed.
Last time we were in Philly was during the Pandemic…
Happy to be at home. Maggie now identifies as a farm girl.
I guess we are still public figures because Maggie was recognized by someone who attended the Woodstock Book Festival at the Flower Show.
***************
My urologist prepared us well, the PSA above 0.1 we knew is a possibility. No surprise here. I have an aggressive Cancer.
Oh-well.
Last minute update: It seems my PSA post-surgery is significant.
*********************
So I am confused. Do we have tariffs or not. Is this another head fake? Households, businesses, and the markets don’t like uncertainty. So Tariffs that started Tuesday, yesterday, might again get unwound. This happened last month, so here we are again.
The markets turned green in response to the suggestion that tariffs might get moderated.
Cal