NYC Journal

Phil,

You are correct about litigation and not paying contractors. The Trump organization is known for this.

About 3 years ago I met someone who was a victim of this. This man was a marketing executive.

Cal
 
Today’s futures predict a mild green screen bounce after yesterday’s drop at the open.

Still there is uncertainty and panic. The Wall Street Journal identified a slowdown and willy-nilly tariffs, and warned of a recession if policies continue.

Team Orange called yesterday’s drop a “blip” that should be ignored…

People are rushing to buy new cars before tariffs kick in.

A report suggests that about half of the households carry a credit card balance, and that the average amount owed is $7.2K. Ouch…

Pretty soon I expect “Food-Off-The-Table” to be a household policy and to kick in. Money has to come from somewhere… My spin is about half of U.S. households are in a squeeze already. Inflation and tariffs will only worsen and make things worse.

Again, “People voted for this…”

Team Orange is not the only player here in danger of insolvency. Phil’s report of the insight about the foreclosures that are yet to come as households get squeezed then crushed by debt loads.

About half the population is worried about their jobs. Certainly a slowdown is underway. One quarter of economic contraction already recorded: first quarter of 2025. Now we seem on a path to a second quarter that is a continued slowdown. Job worries does not support consumer sentiment.

Then there is the inverse “Wealth Effect,” as the stock markets enter and violate “correction” thresholds.

Donald Trump has gone bankrupt several times. For him “Standard Procedure.” How do you run a Casino in Atlantic City into the ground? Are we facing a “Chapter 11?”

Connect the dots… Slow motion is happening…

Cal
 
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CitiBank downgrades U.S. Stocks.

A CPI report comes out tomorrow, Wednesday. How bad is inflation, and the real question is can and will the FED do anything?

Some headlines suggest a watch and wait… Pretty much that is my guess, and I would think the CPI is a bigger number suggesting inflation increased.

Of course food and energy are not included, but Premium gas at my Moble station is a dime more a gallon than a month ago. Of course eggs are at crazy prices.

Cal
 
The mild bounce did not last long. The DOW is down over 350 points at 10:15 AM after yesterday’s plunge.

Meanwhile the Nasdaq is still in the green as likely IT and Tech buyers still think there is upside. IMHO I think AI is a head fake, and tech is a bubble.

A report suggests that it will cost each individual $626.00 to pay for tariffs, or should I say Tare-ifs? Other suggestions are between $1.2K and 1.6K.

Welcome to the new FED sales tax, or consumption tax. Again, eyes wide open, “People voted for this.”

BTW these taxes are a diversion of income that yield consumers nothing except the burden of paying.

Cal
 
What a difference 10 minutes makes. The DOW is down now 445 points and we now have a red screen.

The day is still young, uncertainty and panic is in the air, more job losses expected.

Team Orange calls these “blips.”

My hope are the voters that promoted Team Orange suffer the most. The Asian part of me promotes revenge…

Cal
 
WOW… A doubling of Tare-ifs? On steel and aluminum from Canada in retaliation to the 25% Canadian tariffs on exported electricity to three U.S. states (New York, Michigan, and Minnesota, effects 1.5 million households and nearby industry).

Next escalation is cutting off the export of electricity from Canada…

Team Orange has declared this a “State of Emergency.”

Last time we went to war with Canada was the War of 1812. Americans were the aggressors, the Canadians went into “Hockey Mode” and basically gave the U.S. a severe beating.

So we had a dysfunctional government, and now it is worse. The markets are in a bubble of sorts. Even some FED district Presidents are suggesting an equity and bond bubble that is in a risk of a correction.

Don’t forget we are close again to a budget ceiling…

Pretty much a collapse is needed as a reset, and that would be the best medicine for our country right now. Let Team Orange have their way, keep your ammo dry, and then a rebuild.

There has been a good amount of time since we had a real reset. The FED and interventions like “socializing” stock market losses of 2007-2008 kicked the can down the road promoting and extending a future day of reckoning.

Living on debt and rolling over deficits can’t go on forever…

Wreck and reckoning, or W-R is happening, and pretty much is what is needed.

Cal
 
Almost 480 points down on the DOW today…

Some saber rattling over trade tariffs between Canada and the U.S. involving doubling the 25% tare-if? From the U.S. on aluminum and steel, and Canada imposing a 25% tariff on exported electricity.

Canada is playing the “tare-if?” Game also. The electricity tariff has been rescinded already.

So now a poker game…

The grandson was with us today. Used child labor and exploited his fascination with tools to do some yard work at a child’s pace. Raked out some beds, trimmed some brush, pruned back a bit some evergreens.

Uncovered a 10 foot by 3 foot bed of Daffodils that was buried under my leaf mulch that was over a foot deep. I uncovered rather advanced yellow leaves, so the bed of mulch encouraged early growth. There will be a huge early bloom. Last year was a feast.

“Maggie” has the Pulsatile Tinnitus, and pretty much it is due to an elongation of the Corota artery with either a bend or curve. We need the follow up, but the Internet suggests an increased possible risk of stroke in some cases.

So we have another medical issue to tackle.

Cal
 
A little stiff, but not sore from 5 pull-ups and gardening. Looks like a rainy weekend coming along with milder temperatures.

At 8:30 AM today the CPI report. Currently the pre-market futures are mildly positive. The halving of the Education Department is indicative of further slow downs. Expect also future funding costs in education, all part of the slowdown that is happening in slow-motion.

People don’t realize how it takes time for things to add up and filter into the real world and economy.

Talked with a friend who had prostate Cancer 4 years ago last night. The hormone treatment in him created breasts. He is overweight though… Sometimes this happens naturally in older men as a product of aging. He is 65.

So I might become really a skinny bitch from the ADT. No joke…

Cal
 
Inflation and the CPI came in milder than expected, a moderate relief rally began at the open.

The reasons given for a tame CPI were downward pressures on housing, cars and energy prices (gasoline).

An interesting report about a new Canadian Energy Policy. Canada exports about 4.3 million barrels of oil to the U.S. every day. Pretty much a reliable supply and a foundation that allows the U.S. to be a net exporter of about 4.3 million barrels of oil.

Note that Canadian oil is heavy (Sour), and the U.S. is light (sweet).

So like my money is good elsewhere, Canadian oil is useful elsewhere. Know that presently Canada really does not significantly export to other countries other than the U.S., but presently they now have a pipeline from Alberta Provence to British Columbia Provence that can move oil to the west coast for export.

The demand in the U.S. is that big…

So the new game plan and Canadian policy is to build a pipeline to the east and even one to Hudson Bay. Pretty much no problem to build out this infrastructure as a revenge, and eventually not sell oil to the U.S.

Also noted is that Canada already has excess capacity for export, and it is EZ-PZ to ramp up to 5-6 million barrels a day for export outside the U.S. and eventually get to 8 million barrels a day. No problem for Canada, but a big problem for the U.S.

So this tactic, makes Canada stronger, more independent, and is a very aggressive move that will further unify Canada against it’s enemy, the U.S.

This is permanent damage. It is in Canada’s best interest, it creates National Unity, and really screws the U.S.

Go Canada… Liberate us Americans from tyranny. Canada is realizing they are emerging as a more powerful country.

I am not a traitor, but I know I have an ally that is helpful for fighting evil.

The projections also mean that Canada becomes, not only less reliant on the U.S. but also more economically powerful and richer. A win-win and a big huge F-U and screw you to the U.S.

Big mistake to put a former partner, NATO ally, and member of the G-8 into “Hockey-Mode.” The U.S. will take another beating, and this one is crazy serious.

Separately did you know that Tesla has a lot of insiders selling off millions of dollars worth of stock. Some include Elon’s brother, and members of the Tesla board. Did you know Elon musk suffers from depression and uses Ketamine as a medication.

Did you know that Tesla stock is used as collateral in a margin like manner, and if a certain threshold is hit, forced selling could lock in huge losses.

You can’t make this stuff up…

Cal
 
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It is 10:20, and the DOW made the turn into the red, as the other indexes moved lower.

I suspect traders are selling into the rallies to unload.

Realize that “smart money” knows and understand how slowdowns and recessions take time to become evident.

Panic and uncertainty still persist…

In another report they noted how defaults on car loans are getting worse, and how late payments on credit cards have advanced and are not limited to just the poor anymore, they extend well into the middle class. This report suggests that the average unpaid balance on credit cards is now $10K.

Wall Street and the markets in the past discounted defaults on payments and loans, because in the past it was mostly the poor, who don’t really count in a Capitalistic economy, but today that extends well into the middle income class.

Pretty much financial stress…

Cal
 
Now is not time for Canadians to be polite.

Go Hockey-Mode.

I’m sure the new Prime Minister of Canada, a banker, knows how to play hockey. Pretty much he knows how to use money as a weapon.

No mercy…

I don’t know about you, but Canada is still my ally.

Cal
 
Most Canadians (certainly this former Canuck) seem to understand your POTUS is a bully who uses intimidation and threats to get what he wants. And plays to hidden agendas known only to himself, his business cronies and the cartel of sociopaths who do his bidding. Lacking the critical thinking ability to realise the consequences of his actions for his country, as you lot are now finding out with your fast-approaching legacies of high inflation, high unemployment, high levels of good government services destroyed, and high levels of misery. High times indeed!!

Sad to those Americans who chose to vote with their lower extremities and not their brains.

Mark Carney is not a showman but by inclination and career, a thoughtful, somewhat dry economist given to long-term planning. He has demonstrated these qualities in his posts with reserve banks in Canada and the UK. Surely he will know how to deal with the emotional merry-go-round your President seems firmly stuck on, and plan his response tactics accordingly. Let's also hope sensibly and successfully, as befits a statesman and not a sad circus clown.

I believe the high tariffs to Canada's electricity supply to the northeastern US states was a tactical move by Ontario - surely Ottawa would have been informed before the announcement, and likely gave its quiet approval to it. Many Canadians I know are convinced the next step will be to clap firm tariffs (the notion of up to 50% comes to my mind) on the oil from Alberta. which would be a wake-up call.

Mental illness unchecked is a dangerous situation with potentially disastrous consequences. I am relieved to be living in the faraway safety of Australia, which Trump has this week managed to shaft as well with his tariffs. I fear for my fellow Canadians and for all you Americans, stuck in this uncertain up/down topsy-turvy situation.

Time will tell with all this, and I reckon we will see how it goes in the not-so-distant future.

Sad times indeed. No country deserves this, but it's happening, and it will end badly.
 
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In the Pre-Markets the DOW was up only 11 points, and the other indexes mildly in the red. Another day of turmoil, and I suspect more selling if there is any rallying to take down the markets further.

While D-U speaks of mental illness, don’t forget the influence of a drug that has the street name “Special K” that is used to maintain a maniac that is out of control (Elan Musk).

Yesterday, I used Reverb to locate a Fralin set of Blues Special pickups used that happen to be at my local guitar shop. I negotiated a lower price, saved on shipping and also avoided sales tax. Being patient works, and I love recycling. Pretty much saved money and found a bargain.

Then the speculator in me found a Fender Duo-Sonic guitar for the grandson at the guitar shop at an attractive price point, a real guitar that has a short 24 inch scale with 2 pickups.

I too negotiated the price lower, and avoided sales tax with a cash deal.

The guitar has a neck stamp of Dec 2019 and was made in Mexico. It has a gold anodized pickguard that is a mighty cool feature, and changed/upgraded tuners and a three saddle bridge to make it resemble a 1959 Duo-Sonic.

Know that 1959 Duo-Sonics though had UBER short 22 1/2 inch scales, and they sell $2K-$4K depending on condition and originality.

In the past I owned a 1959 Fender Music Master. It was basically the same as a Duo-Sonic, but came with only one pickup, but mine someone upgraded to add the second pickup. Boy do I have remorse and miss my Music Master. If I remember correctly I bought it for $300.00. It would be the ideal guitar for the grandson.

So the grandson is only 2 1/2, so pretty much I will save this Duo-Sonic for him and hide it, perhaps for a few years. Julian Lage, a great Jazz guitarist, started playing at the age of 5, and by the time he was 8 he was playing gigs.

This kid has the personality to be a “frontman.”

Cal
 
I once was diagnosed as being bi-polar. I was prescribed first Prozac, then Lithium. They didn’t work for me. My problem was PTSD and anxiety.

I did experience bouts of euphoria, mood swings, crashes, and depressions. I was entering my early 30’s and pretty much physically my body could not handle the drive and stress I was living with.

This is when my friend Iron Mike saved my life through biking. I had to learn a new skill at age 32: I had to learn how to relax; something I never did.

It was a matter of life and death. I would have to learn to relax, or it was a matter of killing myself.

Back then I was pretty volatile and a hand grenade with the pin pulled. In high school I was voted “the most likely to have his head explode.”

So now I like, but know I was a very scary guy, and people were scared of me.

BTW you hear the stories of Prozac users killing people. Pretty much Prozac promoted that state of mind in me. I think part of it though was my innate aggressive Alpha male personality.

I wish “Maggie” could truly relax. She kinda is killing herself, getting upset, and kinda creates anxiety. Pretty much all self induced…

In a way she is killing herself. At this point the work of changing or saving the world is not her job, and pretty much maintaining a work ethic with her is a conflict with retirement. Kinda tragic because we enjoy both comfort, luxury, and have no worries unless self induced.

********************

So the Markets are mildly into the red.

There was a headline of a Trump “Tare-if?” Of 200%.

At a certain point political instability, economic uncertainty, risk, and my money is useful elsewhere, induces a flight of capitol. CitiBank already has downgraded U.S. Stocks.

Of course this is a negative bias…

Another headline is how the Federal cuts are not really being counted yet in the employment numbers, and pretty much that will filter into the economy later this spring. I mentioned this in several posts.

Make no mistake, bad policies are doing lots of economic damage. Eyes wide open…

********************

Did 6 pull-ups today. Pretty much my friend who grew breasts as a side effect of hormone therapy is a typical overweight 65 year old man. My hope is me being lean and muscular will help prevent me from getting too tranny or more effeminate.

***************

I hydrated the sponges used to help hydrate my acoustic guitars. I removed a capo from a case, and I capo’ed the second fret on the baritone guitar (Thinline alder Tele) to effectively make it a standard 25 1/2 inch Fender scale length.

The results from my experiment was an immediate loss of overtones and warmth. Pretty much there is a lot of sympathetic resonance going on because of the added weight of the longer neck, the longer strings, and the heavy strings.

I would deem this like a bass guitar effect. An electric bass with a long scale and heavy strings has this stout thickness of overtones. Very-very rich, and this adds warmth and texture. Somehow I discovered this in my baritone, and that is why I love the tone so much.

Now I am considering expanding on this and getting other baritone necks.

Pretty much I’m not emulating anyone I know with this baritone fetish. This is my style emerging. Crazy-good…

Cal
 
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A red screen persists. Interesting to note that all the indexes “gapped” lower than yesterday’s close. Also none of the indexes breached today yesterday’s close so far and it is close to 11:00 AM.

Not too encouraging, even though the losses are not so bold. This could trigger something later in the day…

In February inflation did moderate. Two spins on this: first is the consumer is either tired or retrenching after the 2024 year end binge; and uncertainty, job loss, job security worries, and worry are slowing down the economy.

I think the main real explanation is the economy is slowing down, by the two above spins.

Don’t forget the adage “A rising tide raises all ships.” This is true regardless of wealth or income, but also the converse is true. Surely an inverse wealth effect is happening as the stock markets either enter or approach correction territory.

Cal
 
You can’t have Capitalism without capitol.

So a headline is where to invest when the U.S. is failing.

A few years ago, China had a flight of capitol, and it kinda crushed them.

Here we are in the same situation, but this is not geo-political, but a self inflicted wound.

Who will invest here, surely not the Canadians. Who will buy our debt/bonds?

So when this happens, to attract buyers, bond rates have to go up. Do you think interest rates are high now, just wait…

Can you see how stagflation is cultivated.

Cal
 
I did stock up on Sunflower seed butter and almond butter, to compliment my supply of peanut butter. All are a supply of plant protein.

Trader Joe’s still has great prices. Also check the labels for sugar added.

IMHO sugar is a Carcinogen, it feeds Cancer and promotes Cancer. Is not something that promotes Cancer like cigarettes a carcinogen? Well you can live without soda, cake, cookies, and candy. I do. Obesity increases your chance of Cancer.

Cal
 
I’m kinda glued to the red screen the losses are increasing, and then gold is ratcheting up.

Pretty clear “signal” of a flight to safety.

The billion dollar question is “When will the shoe drop.”

Cal
 
Click on the DOW and expand the chart: one-day; 5-day; month; 6-month…

When you get to the yearly and the 3-year you get to see how steep the drop is. This is where we are heading by the technical indicators.

“Look out below.” Hope you have on your safety harness and hard-hat.

The trap-door seems to have opened.

What a mess…

Cal
 
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