NYC Journal

[Calzone]

I did stock up on Sunflower seed butter and almond butter, to compliment my supply of peanut butter. All are a supply of plant protein.

Trader Joe’s still has great prices. Also check the labels for sugar added.

IMHO sugar is a Carcinogen, it feeds Cancer and promotes Cancer. Is not something that promotes Cancer like cigarettes a carcinogen? Well you can live without soda, cake, cookies, and candy. I do. Obesity increases your chance of Cancer.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I’m kinda glued to the red screen the losses are increasing, and then gold is ratcheting up.

Pretty clear “signal” of a flight to safety.

The billion dollar question is “When will the shoe drop.”

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Click on the DOW and expand the chart: one-day; 5-day; month; 6-month…

When you get to the yearly and the 3-year you get to see how steep the drop is. This is where we are heading by the technical indicators.

“Look out below.” Hope you have on your safety harness and hard-hat.

The trap-door seems to have opened.

What a mess…

Cal

 

[robert blu]

Cal says: Sad to those Americans who chose to vote with their lower extremities and not their brains.

Unfortunately in the world there are many who did not vote for him, or non American who did not vote who will suffer because of his decisions.

 

[Calzone]

It’s just after 2:00 PM, and the DOW is down over 575 points.

Meanwhile Gold is getting close to breaching $3K.

Cal

 

[Retro-Grouch]

Musk is bipolar.

Perhaps, perhaps not. I'm not qualified to make a diagnosis. Musk himself has stated that he has Aspergers, but that diagnosis no longer exists and has been subsumed into Autism Spectrum in the DSM, as I understand it.
All of which is irrelevant. I've worked in the mental health field and have known countless individuals with either or both diagnoses. Most were kind, decent folks who worked very hard to keep their condition from having a negative effect on those around them.
Musk is the richest man in the world, and if he is indeed living with some form of mental illness, he has the resources to access the best treatments money can buy. Mental illness does not get him a free pass; he is still, quite simply, a monster.

 

[Calzone]

I know from my own experience there are a lot of misdiagnoses of mental illness. My mother was labeled a schizophrenic and destroyed by Electro Shock Treatments and fed Thorazine. This was a woman who had 5 children and suffered what we know today as post-pardon depression.

Then there is the elation and manic like behavior of someone abusing “Special K” also known as Ketamine.

So pretty much one could label Musk as a drug addict…

I have no training, but again from experience, my sister was a “dry-drunk” displaying behavior and thinking of a drunk, even when sober. Drugs and alcohol can do that, separately and together.

So this manic like behavior could be just from Ketamine abuse…

Anyways crazy-is crazy, and perhaps again from personal experience I can say, “It takes one to know one.”

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Pretty much Musk has destroyed the Tesla brand.

While he may be gifted as far as intelligence goes, the design of a Tesla, all the recalls, the poor user interface, and the list of problems get solved in a “fly-by-wire” manner. Pretty much a “Spackle-Job” that involves what I would call “patchwork.”

Then the Orange House talks of removing the $7.5K tax credit, which I would label as a “subsidy” by the U.S. government for each and every Tesla sale.

I wish someone would give me a $7.5K tax credit if I bought a new car other than an EV. Pretty much talk about waste… Why are taxpayers subsidizing a billionaire?

Today JP Morgan lowered their guidance on Tesla. Three days ago Tesla stock dropped 15%. There is a mass exodus of insider sellers that include board members, Elon’s brother, an other insiders.

Presently Tesla stock is about $240.00 a share, but JP Morgan lowered their guidance to only a $120.00 valuation.

“Maggie” told me that Elon Musk used his shares of Tesla as collateral in some kinda margin like deal. Money was lent, but Tesla stock has to remain above $100.00 per share value, or else the bank will either ask for a cash deposit to cover loses, or forced selling will happen to prevent the bank from loosing money.

So the great news here is that most A-holes FXCK-themselves, and not only has this bad behavior and craziness kill a brand, that this billionaire will suffer a rather huge loss.

Could even be a failed business like one of Donald Trump’s Casino’s

“Ha-ha,” I say.

Do you think Tesla will recover? Let’s monitor Tesla stock…

BTW Gold breached $3K today. Remember that gold is a store of wealth.

Also did you know that mucho physical gold is being moved to NYC to be stored. There is a worry that gold imports could get “Tare-If’ed?” Record amounts… Does the smart money and the banks know something we don’t?

So let’s see Tesla stock breach $100.00…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

When you expand the timeline on a Tesla chart a distinct pattern emerges that coincides with the “Trump-Bump:” a head and shoulders pattern.

The left shoulder rises and then goes sideways to create a base from where the head will eventually build upon and emerge, then a collapse that is as steep as the rise off the left shoulder, then some sideways basing and consolidation, until the sharp steep fall to fully define the right shoulder.

On the chart we are somewhere on the right shoulder before the eventual steep drop.

This technical indicator is actually a strong and reliable indicator, but I would not bet your house on it.

Other reports on Tesla provide a more optimistic view and an average valuation over $300.00. For me this is La-La land and I believe and want to believe the strong head and shoulders pattern.

Also know that a head and shoulders pattern tend to be symmetrical. The Tesla pattern is textbook symmetrical…

In my reading I gleaned from a March 11th report, three days ago when Tesla made over a 15% drop, over the course of 3 months (Trump-Bump) Tesla stock is down 53%.

Go head and shoulders…

Cal

 

[DownUnder]

Musk is bipolar.

Maybe yes, maybe no. My close friend is a psychiatrist, and she believes he shows all the signs of a sociopath. which may or may not be associated with bipolar disorder, I haven't enquired (note written to myself to ask her more about all this.) She has never met the gentleman (sic) in person, so this may well be a wet-finger diagnosis - note that this term does NOT mean what some of you may suppose(itory) it does...

Gold at US$3,000 is frightening - in Australia that's close to AUD $5,000. In my 20s, admittedly a half century ago, it was US$35 an ounce, in the late '60s I was buying an ounce every two weeks with my savings from a clerical job in Montreal. I sure wish I had that gold stash in a safe deposit box now...

As I've written before, it will all end badly. I now fear this will happen sooner rather than later. Truly a sad state of affairs...

 

[Calzone]

Foreign investors are likely to unload/unwind about a trillion dollars worth of U.S. equities in one headline. This means selling into any rally to prevent further losses.

Today the pre-market futures are mildly green again. My bet is this bounce from yesterday’s sell off turns red again later in the day. Let the selling begin…

My thinking is more downward bias as the markets see the downturn unravel. So we have mentioned the flight of capital, and now foreign divestment.

Money has to come from somewhere, and the only option that is likely is higher interest rates. This is no “blip.”

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Gold made the jump over $3K. This was suppose to be the price target by many banksters and analysts later this year.

It will be interesting when Team Orange tries to limit or control the price of Gold.

History lesson here is that Price-Controls never work and eventually always fail.

The price of gold in a way undermines a paper currency. As a fiat currency depreciates, especially during an inflationary period, gold becomes the safe-haven for storing wealth. Gold and real estate seem to be the hedges for inflation, both are hard tangible assets.

Paper assets like cash or equities are not worthless, but generally are worth-less.

In the end, when price controls fail, prices go up.

This early $3K threshold is a lack of trust/faith in Team Orange Policy. The buyers here are banks and UBER wealthy. Gold over $3K at this point is a lack of confidence in Orange policy, and I’m suggesting that the Orange House will take insult and exception to this an do another dumb move.

Tariffs on physical gold imports could be a possibility. What a panic and scramble that would cause… Know and understand that mucho hoarding and transport of physical gold has been moved to NYC already in anticipation of tariffs.

The price of gold is an insult and presents the devaluation of the U.S. dollar that is underway. Know that gold is priced in dollars, so as dollar devaluation continues gold gets less expensive relative to other currencies.

Sell a trillion dollars worth of U.S. equities to divest from evil, and those dollars flood a market and buy other things. A headline is to store your paper currency in Japanese Yen because it is more stable. Dollar destruction is underway…

So fact is an early shift, and the future is a less valuable dollar that has less purchasing power. Look at the gold chart and expand the timeline. Gold is kinda going vertical.

Gold is expressing the horrible inflation yet to come.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

The markets have settled into the green with modest gains, but are not close to recouping yesterday’s losses. Let’s see if it a sucker’s rally where later in the day sellers trade into the rally to take it out.

A Michigan University survey denotes that consumer sentiment is presently at a 29 month low. Inflation and tariff worries… Right now the lower income folk are suffering, but when will the middle fall into line?

Gold dropped under $3K. Hmmm… The S&P touched into correction territory… Hmmm again.

I don’t know about you, I feel the negative bias, but remember that team orange got voted in by the popular vote. Pretty much these voters/fans will in the end get blind-sided.

Another analyst lowered Tesla’s valuation from $135 to $130. Still many are fans. Let’s see if the S&P recovers (in my book not likely), if gold goes over $3K again and remains there. Then there are the believers in Tesla…

As you can see I kinda place my bets on the side of momentum… I go with the flow. The trend is my friend…

BTW I think inflation will be horrific because of collapse. The term “Greater-Depresion” is possible…

Cal

 

[Prest_400]

As you can see I kinda place my bets on the side of momentum… I go with the flow. The trend is my friend…

BTW I think inflation will be horrific because of collapse. The term “Greater-Depresion” is possible…

Cal

I have your motto "look out below" and writings about US debt and China owning it as a "weapon" quite in mind. In some ways a Great reset or recession should happen.
For long, and I mentioned quite a while ago, expanding the graphs shows markets well well valued. EU indexes are rather positive still, but if a recession spreads it will be interesting. OTOH word from the streets is that there already has been this way to stagflation and the economy has been as in a recession for long.

This week I've been out of the news, and for good because it's overwhelming. Some policies and acts are madman like and part of the strategy.

Causational or correlational I am noticing that many friends and acquaintances, young professionals 20-35 are in a sort of limbo of hitting the job market, unemployment and a case or two of failed job hopping.

 

[Calzone]

The markets now appear to be near recovering yesterday’s loses. Don’t forget the other sell offs though that happened earlier in the week.

Statistically the S&P after a correction there is a 60% chance of a recovery, but 40% of the time the 10% drop from the prior peak doubles to 20% and then you have a bear market.

Where would you place your bet knowing historical odds? Then add in “Orange-Factor” and perhaps the odds invert: 60% towards a bear market; and 40% chance towards a recovery.

Either way not a sure bet.

For me too much negative possibilities are present… I maintain a negative/defensive bias.

I kinda understand that the majority of voters went Team-Orange and are still high on the Cool-Aid. There are too many believers that kinda set a momentum of their own.

All I can say is the numbers don’t lie. Consumer sentiment is falling, and I expect it to get mucho worse.

Gold is hovering right around $3K…

As gold prices increase expect inflation to become a greater worry. Pretty much high inflation leads to higher interest rates and less purchasing power. Of course this takes a while to get noticed…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

JP Morgan confirms that at this point it is the lower income folk feeling the pain. Next on the ladder are the moderate income folk.

This spin come from the banksters who are reporting where the late payments and defaults are.

Next…

Remember slow motion and trends…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Went to my local tool rental to get my BBQ propane tank filled. Instead of $20.00 cash it was $22.00 cash, and increase of 10%. Inflation…

Tesla is up today and just shy of $250.00 a share.

The DOW more than recovered yesterday’s losses. Hmmm…

So Canada actually buys oil and gas from the U.S. to supply its eastern provinces. I was unaware of this reverse trade. There is talk of building a pipeline from Alberta province where the oil is to points east for energy security and national security.

There also is talk of Canada adding tariffs to exported energy. Of course this would wreck havoc in the U.S.

A headline pointed out that when Trump shuts his mouth, the markets go up.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Another analyst dropped their Tesla price target from $175 to $170.

Tesla sales in January dropped 11%.

The headlines are following the 60/40 percentages I mentioned above, thinking that this is just a correction on the S&P. Historically the odds favor that this is just a correction (60%), and the odds historically are only a 40% chance of a bear market.

Again I think the odds are likely reversed from history because of Team Orange Policies. I think the odds for a bear market (a 20% drop in the S&P) are higher than 40%, and perhaps the percentages need to be inverted with a 60% chance of a bear market.

Premium gas at my Moble station remains at $3.739 a gallon.

In my back backyard I have been hearing the Spring Peepers. The Daffodils I uncovered by removing over a foot of mulch are starting to green up. Tomorrow rain expected.

Got a chance to plug in while “Maggie” walked to the downtown. I stocked up at CVS and use a bunch of coupons.

Another 6 pull-ups today…

Cal

 

[Calzone]

Overcast and expected showers today and tomorrow. The Spring Peepers are these tiny frogs about the size of my large toe nail that inhabit the marsh and frog pond and brook that drains a series of ponds in Blue Mountain Preserve.

You know it is spring when you hear their cries for sex. It is a mating ritual, and on the first real warm day it gets mighty loud like a soccer stadium after a goal. I can at times hear the sounds of their sex a half block away.

Pretty much a giant orgy, and there are many-many thousands of them. A rite of spring. So on a warm day I hear some of them crying for a mate, but not the screaming yet.

Then there is a trill of the tree frogs. These are about 3-4 inches big without their legs extended. These frogs are noisy in a different way. They sing with a distinctive “trill,” a wavering up and back in pitch.

So I’m waiting for the real noise of frogs and birds that denote spring. The birds seem to be feeding a lot less on the bird feeder the past week. Also we had a bit of a oversupply of grey squirrels, but I think they fell pry to the Northern Harrier I have seen around our house.

Deer scuffs all over the yard, even the side front yard.

Cal

 

[Calzone]

I’d be fine staying home since I’m a loner, but “Maggie” needs to get out. We drove to Cold Spring another rivertown about 15 miles up the Hudson River. The idea was to explore and walk around.

Fortunately the expected rain did not happen, and we walked over 8 miles. On the way I pulled over and we walked around a tiny village called Nelsonville. Not much of a village, meaning not a lot of stores or any reason to go there. Pretty much a place you just drive though unless you live there.

It was worth stopping because the homes were old and cute.

So anyways it seemed like Cold Spring is a nice village to live in because there are shops and a busy Main Street. Peekskill is a city, but the shops are not quirky, or boutique. Peekskill also is not so affluent as Cold Spring.

On one hand Peekskill is a City, so there are benefits that go along with that: natural gas; sewers, services.

Cold Spring would be a great place to live near the village if you no longer drive, and the downtown is mucho safe. Peekskill is a City, so it has its problems and its share of urban poor. Peekskill is still a safe place, but it really can’t compare with a place like Cold Spring.

Maggie and her anxiety worries about crime and the likely downturn that is happening. So pretty much i am open and still entertaining a move, even though I’m cool with staying put. “Woman-Factor.” I kinda like what we have.

Of course in Cold Spring the property taxes would be brutal. Our little hood is kinda small and somewhat private, almost like a gated community. The walk to the downtown is 2 miles. I’m cool with not being public, but Maggie gets feelings of isolation. We kinda fit into Cold Spring though…

Today I only did 5 pull-ups. Oh-well. Tomorrow is another day.

Cal