NYC Journal

The markets are tipped slightly into the red in the pre-markets. Later today is a retail sales report…

UBS upgraded it gold price to $3.2K.

The other day I did 6 pull-ups, and since then only 5 a day. The cloudy weather with just enough rain to be gloomy has set in. Today seems like another.

This Friday will be my PET-scan.

Cal
 
The market flipped and now upon the open is slightly in the green.

I know a lot of retirees have seen their 401K’s drop. No panic, and no real sell off yet.

“Maggie” asked me what she should do, and I said, “Stand pat.” Pretty much continue with your plan.

I have a negative bias towards the markets, but for the long term you need to hang in there.

Cal
 
Passing BJ’s on our way to Trader Joe’s, two things I noticed: the gas lines at BJ’s reminded me of the 70’s with lengthy lines due to the OPEC induced gas shortage (Gas was discounted 12 cents a gallon); and I guess the word is out that Trader Joe’s not only has great quality, but also low prices.

Point is I’m seeing belt tightening.

Two great things are the low taxes on the Baby-Victorian. We are only the fourth owners so limited re-assessments did use well in limiting our tax liability. Then there are mucho crazy low taxes on the kid’s new home because the finished basement with a nice wood stove is not considered living space, and is taxed as only a two bedroom “cottage.”

Cal
 
I was not in the military, but I know the culture vicariously through Grumman which had a huge veteran preference in their hiring.

I gleaned a lot of perspective from men who knew combat and life threatening situations. Men that had a sense of duty and honor.

One Vietnam vet kinda did a confessional to me, I figure because I looked like the enemy. Pretty much he told me of war crimes he committed.

One friend was a Navy SEAL from the Vietnam era. What surprised me that he was a guy around my size.

So the point of all this is about Navy SEAL survival training. They say that 95% of survival is “maintaining a positive mental attitude” no matter what.

Pretty much avoid negative thinking that could lead to negative outcomes; and conversely engage in positive thoughts that can have positive outcomes.

If you know about the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, and about positive outcomes, mental attitude definitely can effect outcomes. Research of Cancer patients has proven that mental attitude can effect recovery.

So in a combat situation a Navy SEAL trapped behind enemy lines without ammo, food or water has to come up with a positive spin like, at least I’m not bleeding… help is on the way… I can avoid capture…

So I told this to the husband of the grandchildren who dwells on negative thoughts. My hope is that he can reframe things…

“Maggie” also gets caught up in negative thinking. I don’t say it, but she has no reason to be upset or unhappy because in the balance nothing really bad is happening to us. She cannot count our blessings and see that she is just whining. I guess she makes the choice not to be happy.

Back at my job as a Cyclotron Engineer at a major Cancer hospital, I had an oppressive boss that was demeaning and also was a bully. All I needed to say to myself to center things was, “I am glad I’m not him.” I had a thick skin and pretty much would not get provoked.

In the end I got my revenge when he kinda was pushed out.

So know that no matter how bad things might get that you likely are better off than at least someone else. Put the positive spin on things no matter what, and don’t fall into a death spiral of negative thoughts.

So the deeper meaning here is Maggie, an accomplished woman, feels unsettled and unfulfilled. I kinda pick up that passion and drive are somewhat lacking, and the result is unhappiness and a need to fill an empty hollow within her.

Pretty much the means, security, and freedom is on hand; yet I feel that is kinda wasted because of depressed feelings and in IMHO getting upset over nothing big.

Did you know that you can drown in an inch of water? Pretty much some people will drown themselves in a tea cup.

I don’t have any reason to be unhappy is my attitude. Also some things are not worth getting upset about.

Back in November 2003, I framed the Supreme Court decision that George W. Bush won the election for a second-term the end of Democracy. So today I can accept what is going on today.

I learned back in 2003, I cannot afford to be “my brother’s keeper,” and pretty much had to concentrate on my own survival.

So when I say, most Americans voted for what is currently happening, I only feel bad for the people who didn’t.

I can frame my attitude as somewhat selfish, but I’m cool with that…

Cal
 
I have a follow through to what I wrote above. It takes a good amount of humility to accept some things as they are. Sometimes peoples egos promote anger and outrage, but I would call this out as entitlement because some things you can’t really control or change.

I am not being apathetic, but I realize that I could exhaust myself to no good being angry and upset. So many people say they want to do something, and I don’t think I can be called a coward for staying safe and out of harm’s way.

I have walked the talk as they say… A decade and a half ago I bad talked about Jeff Bezos. I have called Elan Musk “pure evil” years back before he was involved with government. I have been vocal and outspoken about the $7.5 tax subsidy that Musk received for every vehicle that Tesla sells as being wrong.

I have been very critical of making China a favored trading partner, their civil rights violations, their environmental destructions, their bad/evil foreign policy…

So now is my time to hold my breath. Not many listened anyways…

I don’t want to dwell on the negative, I want to be happy, and for some like me happiness is a choice.

“Maggie” has a struggle. As a Social Worker and as a college professor, she committed her life for the “better good.” If she could only really retire and turn off that career of educating and helping people…

Time to be selfish after a life of struggle trying to be decent humans and true Americans. I made a good transition, but she lags.

Cal
 
Think of cheap gas prices like regular priced under $3.00 a gallon as a bad thing. Pretty much demand is low, indicating the economic slowdown underway.

One reason why the CPI report indicated lower inflation was gas prices. Also the housing market slowed down and lowered inflation.

So a slowdown tamed inflation, but really the tariff price increases have not filtered into the economy yet, and neither have the unemployment numbers and new claims are absent from the data.

Still uncertainty exists and persists to encourage further slowdown.

The word “Stagflation” is being used by many who forecast.

Oh-well…

Cal
 
UPDATE: The baritone neck is pretty much an asset and great tool. The longer scale promotes more accuracy, speed and more precision in technic. Pretty much practice on the baritone pays dividends when going back to a standard Fender scale length.

I’m considering getting another baritone neck, but I can’t replicate the discount/bargain I got on this “Screaming Deal” that likely was sold at a loss somehow.

I got a figure in the neck for free that is an up charge of $80.00, then I got the turquoise fingerboard inlays for free ($35.00), then there was the custom 9 1/2-14 inch radius up charge that came for free (another $35.00). Somehow I saved $150.00 and got a stunning looking neck. Add onto this that the price was mucho low on top of all the upgrades…

So I’m lurking looking for lightning to strike twice… Time is my friend…

Anyways I am so pleased. Playing the baritone really advances things, then playing a standard Fender scale length feels like playing a baby guitar.

Happy-happy.

Cal
 
Pre-Markets are slightly in the red as yesterday.

Tesla stock is down over 4%, hovering around $232.XX a share. In expanding the charts the Trump Bump created a distinct head and shoulders pattern, and $220.00 when breached will be the look-out-below moment.

Canada possibly will divest and not purchase F-35 fighter jets from the U.S. This might be a big deal and involves lots of money. The slow motion contraction continues…

Yesterday the Spring Peepers got louder. For the next 3 days expected highs over 60 degrees. Let the orgy begin.

Cal
 
The markets gave back the gains yesterday and then some. A red screen today for the three big indexes. Recession fears, stagflation, and already increased import prices have triggered a beginning.

Gold made a new Intra-Day High of $3047.50. That’s a pretty big jump considering gold was hovering just around $3K in a stabilizing consolidation after the big move just recently over $3K. Remember UBS increased their price target for gold recently to $3.2K. That price target seems to be still low. Others are saying $4K gold…

Do the math: 25% tariffs; and the money has to come from somewhere. Either the business takes the hit and kills it profit margin; or the cost gets passed onto the consumer. Either way with big debt loads who can afford to pay.

Also inflation and especially stagflation are hard to tame once they get entrenched. Historically the 1973 OPEC oil embargo was a start, and inflation was not tamed until 1982, almost a decade… During that time period we had double-digit inflation, and double-digit unemployment as peaks.

The job market also is tightening… Don’t forget that many households are involved with the GIG economy and who’s numbers don’t get counted…

A headline is that home builders see a slowdown, and that does not help with the housing shortage. We need about 15 years of overbuilding just to balance the supply and demand imbalance that was a period of underbuilding since 2007-2008. Basically house price inflation is bound to continue.

Expect housing costs to further escalate. Simple economics, and also for the locked in effect to continue.

I think this makes it more and more likely that a 400 square foot second floor gets built on the garage. I know my taxes will go up, but then I’ll have a two-car carriage house with a modern/efficient open studio. “Don’t tell Maggie…”

It seems real estate is a good hedge for what’s ahead.

There is this guy Jarred Dillion, that I use to get a newsletter from. He promoted a 20-20-20-20-20 diversified portfolio, that is designed for stability and avoided losses. First off it is highly diversified. 20% cash; 20% real estate; 20% bonds; 20% stocks; and lastly 20% commodities like gold and oil.

The gold and oil is a hedge against inflation. This portfolio is so diversified that if the markets or the economy tanks the drawdown is somewhat limited. Pretty much avoiding losses and drawdowns if time is not your friend.

To diversify further use ETF’s instead of single stocks. GLD is a ticker for gold; USO is a ticker for U.S. Oil; CHK is the ticker for a big natural gas company.

Anyways stay safe…

BTW The usual financial disclaimer…

Cal
 
The market losses today ended up being moderate. Oh-well… Gold stayed above the $3040.XX range.

Place your bets. I favor Gold over the markets.

A hundred dollars does not go so far when food shopping, especially if you want to eat healthy. Ouch…

Copper is becoming a headline because demand is exceeding supply and making the price rise. Supplies can’t be easily increased, so prices will go up because of demand. This is a pretty basic commodity usually $3.50-4.00 a pound, but now around $5.00 a pound.

A 25% increase and this is not due to tariffs or “Tare-Ifs?”

I wonder how much that 5 gallon jar of change I have stockpiled in the basement. I saved pennies, nickels and dimes. Weighs a lot, not sure I could pick it up.

I have to check, but if my memory serves me right, it takes 154 pennies, the older ones, to make a pound a copper. Pretty much worth more than triple as melt value, but of course this is illegal until the penny is no longer considered legal tender. Know that hedge funds pay for storage speculating on the demise of the penny.

Next is the nickle…

Melt value as a commodity is worth more than face value. Also know that it has been reported that it costs the government $0.03 to mint a penny, even ones that are alloyed and have less copper. Pretty much created as an expense and a loss…

In Canada the already eliminated their penny which is physically the same size as an American penny. They round up prices…

Yes this is mildly inflationary…

Good news is “Maggie” does not have a brain tumor, a vascular problem, and is in no need of treatment for her pulsative tenitus.

Was able to do 6 pull-ups today, and we went for a walk which helps a lot with my bladder seepage. I feel a tightness in my mid-section, and I can see muscle toning visibly in the mirror. I might be getting leaner…

Been taking care of the grandson a lot this week. His dad is a bit overwhelmed, but this guy is a negative thinker caught up in a negative death spiral. Self inflicted stress… The grandson basically eats all my food, so we had to go shopping today.

The grandson is a pleasure, but imagine being around Debbie Downer… Not so easy. More grandson tomorrow and Thursday. He has a fascination with tools, so tomorrow we will build him a tool box out of some scrap pine I have in the garage.

I think we will build some bird houses and feeders.

The Spring Peepers are starting to get loud.

Cal
 
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Look at the DOW chart, and expand it from daily, to weekly, to monthly to three month.

The pattern you will discover is the DOW is on a downtrend, and the rally of the previous two days is really shown as just a “bounce” after pretty much a longer term sell-off.

Buying into this market is fighting the longer term trend. Pretty easy to see the longer term down trend when you expand the charts.

Like I said, things are happening in slow motion…

Cal
 
FACT CHECK:

I’m not so demented yet. It takes 154 pennies to make a pound of copper. The premise though is that these pennies have to be pre-1982. Evidently as copper prices rose, in 1983 they made pennies with less copper content.

On March 14th the amount of copper in a pre-1982 pennie was worth $0.0291988, or very close to 3 cents or almost triple the face value.

Cal
 
Guitar Disease again. I bought a cheap body from Guitar Mill in Tennessee. Made of 2 piece pine the full sized Tele body has vintage style routes and only weighs 2 pounds 15 ounces. A body under 3 pounds is remarkable and UBER light in weight.

Back in 1949 Fender made the very first Telecasters out of pine, but because the wood often had knots and dented easily Leo Fender migrated soon to using Swamp Ash. Later on in the 1950’s Leo again migrated to Alder because it not only was readily available, but also didn’t require the extra step of grain filling the pores prior to painting that swamp ash required.

Understand that Leo was a cheap-FXXX.

I have been lurking on the. Guitar Mill site for a while, and pretty much have been patient, but tonight they added two new bodies that pretty much used clear pine without knots. The other stock had various defects, knots, mineral stains, and irregularities. Some we seductively light in weight, but were made of 4 pieces of wood glued together.

So the pay off is a two-piece clear pine body that is light in weight, and free from defects. Even with shipping less than $200.00.

The thing with pine is that is soft, and it dents easily. Also screws loosen easily and strip out holes. The voice of pine is not deep, but it is kinda open and airy. Perhaps not a Jazz sound, but that is alright. Viva the difference…

I’ll use maple dowels for the bridge screws and the strap lugs.

A few weeks ago I was enamored with an anniversary Telecaster made of pine that was a one year limited edition that had been modified with a Glaser “B” and “G” bender. I tried to do a trade, but the deal did not work out. I’m cool with that.

This is how I got the Tele Pine bug. Understand that the bottom strap button was pulling out of the body, so I pointed this defect out before an accident happened. That is why now I know how the remedy the softness of pine by plugging the screw holes with glued in maple dowels for durability.

So imagine a solid body guitar that weighs under 5 pounds that is full sized.

So another cool Tele. BTW this is a raw body, and pretty much it will be on me to spray a lacquer finish and level it into a mirror finish. The one-piece Warmoth vintage Tele is another paint project.

I need warm dry weather with low humidity to spray lacquer. Spring/summer projects…

Anyways tonight another lucky find…

Like the bargain baritone neck for no-money with mucho upgrades I’m cherry picking… Pretty much no-brainers.

Cal
 
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A headline is a Bank of America Survey indicated a record amount of U.S. stock selling last week.

Long positions are being sold.

Where will the cash go? Real estate, gold, commodities…

Cash is a position, but it does not do so well in an inflationary environment.

Hmmm…

Cal
 
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