Photography Economics

[Spanik]

If you're doing this as a hobby, how important is price?

 

[HHPhoto]

Jan, I'd be interested in more details behind these numbers.

It's easy, just look at the Official CIPA statistic data.
It is by far the best source available, because all relevant digital camera manufacturers deliver their production data to them:

http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html

In all my postings I am referring to this official data.

For example, what segment(s) of the digital camera market are drying up?

Compact cameras is worst. Sales are in a free fall for four years now.
This segment has always been the most important for the manufacturers, by volume and revenues. In 2010 more than 80% of all camera sales have been compact cameras!
Their most important product group is now vanishing. That is a big problem.
But also DSLRs are in a significant decline by 20 - 25% p.a. in the last two years.
Mirrorles is not so much better:
- 25% decline in 2013, last year about stable.

I've had the impression that a lot of the digital shrinkage is in the small point-and-shoot cameras due to the increased interest in cell phone photography.

That is correct. But the over-saturation of the market with DSC cameras also plays an important role.

And I'd guess (and its definitely a guess) that big DSLRs sales are falling off due to the increasing capabilities of APS-C & m4/3 cameras.

See above. Mirrorless is not going so well as the mirrorless producers has hoped.
And the huge decline in DSC and DSLRs cannot be compensated at all by mirrorless cameras.

Bottom line... I can't imagine any scenario that would have film and film camera sales increasing.

Is is already happening: Instant cameras are in a huge increase for several years now. Growth rates by 20-30% p.a..
Fujifilm is selling more instant cameras than digital cameras!
And remember: In 2007 / 08 all the"experts" said instant film will be the first film format killed by digital.
Now instant film has an impressive revival.

Digital is just getting too good. Film may remain a niche technology, but in this 'gotta have it now' world, I can't imagine that digital-based imagery doing anything but taking over completely.

It will never take over completely. If that would be the case, it would have already happened. Digital and film are just too diffferent (like beer and wine).
Film will not only stay, it will be an increasing niche in the future.
Kodak e.g. reported an increase in professional film sales by 15% recently.
Ilford is offering several new products, Adox and Rollei-Film as well.
Ilford is building a complete modernised plant in Mobberley in the next years. Investing more than 10 millions pounds.
Inoviscoat in Germany has build a new film and paper factory in 2008 / 2009, now producing film and photographic paper for several companies.
Film Ferrania is building a new film factory.
New55 is currently working on their new BW instant sheet film.

Of course film will be a niche compared to digital in the future.
Nothing wrong with that.
But it will be an attractive niche, growing again.
We already see the first steps in this development.

When the CD was introduced around 1980, all thought it will kill the classic vinyl disc.
But what happened insted?
Bottom in sales for Vinyl already was in 1993, then an increase of more than 300% again in the following years, than stability in sales.
And since 2009 again a huge increase in sales by 30-40 % p.a each year.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

It does seem like film is getting rarer, more expensive, and one day will be a luxury product.

No.
Digital photographers are saying that again and again for more than 12 years now.
But if you make a real, economic valid calculation including inflation, you will see that film and especially processing is often even significantly cheaper today compared to the "golden era of film" 20 years ago.
Film selection is bigger in some market areas as well (e.g. more choices today with IR and high resolution BW films).
And we will see more films again in the future. For example from Film Ferrania, Adox, Rollei-Film and InovisCoat.
We will have a film revival similar to the development we've seen in the market for mechanical watches and vinyl.

And by the way: That someone like you who has spend a fortune for a Leica Monochrom is saying that film is too expensive.......sorry, I have to shake my head.
With that fortune you could have bought enough film and processing for the rest of your life 😉.

Also impossible to understand these people who buy the latest expensive digital cam all 2 or 3 years and then saying that shooting film is expensive.

Cheers,
Jan

 

[btgc]

But if you make a real, economic valid calculation including inflation, you will see that film and especially processing is often even significantly cheaper today compared to the "golden era of film" 20 years ago.

Not even touching used gear availability and prices, I have a feeling that internet, payment and shipping options have made possible to fetch film from opposite side of globe and send it back for development, if needed. And all this goodness is available to dads with casual income, sitting on a pile of fine cameras, once seen only in hands of either rich or pros.

 

[robert blu]

Excuse me if I jump in with a personal example about my family.

I bought for my wife, who simply likes to take photo (she is not a "semi-pro" 🙂) a Nikon D 5100 a few years ago and last year I add a 35mm lens.
The result she gets is more than ok for the intended use, small print max 20x30 cm (we always print a selection of the photo done). The camera still works ok, meantime Nikon came to the market with a D 5200, D 5300, D 5400 and recently a D 5500. We do not see any reason for upgrading to latest model, there would be no improvement in the final output. Moreover the spare batteries she has do not work in the latest models ...which means buy more, a different charger...

Myself, I bought a Leica x1 (my only digital) around 4 years ago, which I use beside my film cameras. I'm planning to buy a more versatile digital, interchangeable lenses etc... and there is a wide market offer. What stops me is not buying a new camera but when you buy something new you enter a system, new lenses, new batteries and other paraphernalia...and than there is learning curve, new menus, new options, new settings....and if you do not like them and desire to change toward a different brand again you have to learn, to spend time trying...It means there must be a very serious reason for upgrading, it's not only a money question.

No, our family is not ready to buy a new camera each year or ...

Sorry for the long post, just to explain my idea about the relationship camera producers and potential clients...
robert
PS: of course a very personal view which could be wrong...

 

[Spanik]

No.
Digital photographers are saying that again and again for more than 12 years now.
But if you make a real, economic valid calculation including inflation, you will see that film and especially processing is often even significantly cheaper today compared to the "golden era of film" 20 years ago.
Film selection is bigger in some market areas as well (e.g. more choices today with IR and high resolution BW films).
And we will see more films again in the future. For example from Film Ferrania, Adox, Rollei-Film and InovisCoat.
We will have a film revival similar to the development we've seen in the market for mechanical watches and vinyl.

[snip]

Cheers,
Jan

Sorry, but I don't follow that reasoning. Film is getting more expensive and certainly devellopment cost (by a lab) is growing even faster if I compare to '80-'90. There are less and less film types as well and finding place to have it develloped is getting harder. Again the net makes it easier to find those last remaining ones but the fact is they are becoming extinct. Those IR and high resolution types were there years ago. Difference is that now you can buy them thanks to net as btgc says. And you cannot with any seriousness say that those silly things like redscale and coloured lomo films are more than fashion and luxury.

My take is that there might be 2-3 film production untis that keep running until the machines are worn out. Then it will be gone. All the brands will be nothing more than different boxes (already the case for quite a few brands).

 

[daveleo]

When you talk about the growth or shrinkage of the "digital camera market" these days, you must include in those numbers all cell phones that have cameras in them. People are simply switching from dedicated cameras to cell phone cameras. The digital market is not "collapsing" - at worst, it is simply shaking itself out and stabilizing.

Also, when you talk about the rebirth of the film photo market, or the growth of that market, you are talking about %'s of very small numbers. Yes, maybe the film world is bouncing upward from a crash, but the mass of people making pictures out there is not switching back to film.

This has been said in various places up above - I'm just adding my opinion to that viewpoint.

 

[ian_watts]

Sorry, but I don't follow that reasoning. Film is getting more expensive and certainly devellopment cost (by a lab) is growing even faster if I compare to '80-'90.

Have you compared the price of bread from the '80s-'90s? I don't suppose the vastly increased cost of a Hovis loaf signals the demise of bread making.

I've already provided some prices earlier in this thread – the cost of film and developing here in the UK is not really that different from what I was paying ten years ago, the exception being E6 (the film, not the processing which is similar).

 

[lynnb]

The most informed comment I see on the internet about trends in digital camera and sensor sales comes from Thom Hogan. Worth a browse if you're interested in both data and analysis. He's Nikon-centric but also reports on other manufacturers. He generally doesn't discuss film sales.
Most recent articles here.
Articles index here.
Sample recent comment here, discussing Sony's projections for sensor sales.

Broadly speaking, the digital trends he is noting are:
1. Digital camera sales have fallen off a cliff
2. Cameras that can be replaced by smart phones are most affected but even FF models from Canikon, Sony are affected.
3. Camera companies are trying to push consumers to higher-margin products (full frame) to maintain profitability. But consumers increasingly see no reason to upgrade.
4. Smaller players (Olympus, Fuji) are fighting it out within a very small overall market share.
5. Product upgrade cycles are incremental, but it will take something much bigger to get people to ditch their existing DSLRs/digital cameras than just an increment. Therefore replacement sales have stalled. Thom thinks the workflow cycle is the key thing that manufacturers are missing. He cites Apple as an example of a company that gets workflow. He thinks Samsung is currently closest to solving that problem (camera capture straight to social media/web etc) but they are nowhere near as good as they need to be. He thinks the first major manufacturer to get it right will get steal market share - and perhaps grow the market - he believes this (workflow/useability) is an area of unmet demand.

I live in Sydney and it is difficult to get film of any sort locally, most camera stores don't sell film or just Kodak Gold 400, only a few remaining specialist stores stock a decent range of film. I mostly buy film over the internet because local prices have risen to AUD$9-$12 a roll.

You cannot find new film cameras to buy here except at one or two specialist outlets (Leica, Bessa). The one exception is Fuji Instax cameras and film which are everywhere. Film processing is being gradually centralised at places like K-Mart; local camera shop minilabs are expensive and quality is patchy. This will only help Fuji instant film sales. The young generation don't like to wait for anything, including 1-hour minilab processing. I develop my own bw.

Film is a niche product here but I do see the occasional film photographer out on the street. DSLRs and cell phones are everywhere. As Thom says, the DSLR market is saturated, and few are interested in upgrading unless something new and compelling comes out.

 

[HHPhoto]

Sorry, but I don't follow that reasoning. Film is getting more expensive and certainly devellopment cost (by a lab) is growing even faster if I compare to '80-'90.

No, not at all.
I still have price lists and bills here from 20 years ago.
Considering inflation most films are cheaper now compared to that time.
I've done these comparison calculations for several time points.
Processing is significantly cheaper today.
Here in Germany e.g. processing costs (the pure price) have been stable for about 15 years. But as inflation happened and wages are higher now than 15 years ago, in real value processing is indeed significantyly cheaper today.

Friends of mine in the US and UK did similar calculations for their countries, getting the same results.

And what lots of people ignore:
For an economic valid calculation you have not only to look at prices and inflation, but also at quality and value!!
Most films of today are much much better than the films 20 - 25 years ago!
Provia 100F and Velvia 100 for example are worlds ahaed of the films I've used 25 years ago.
Therefore you get much more quality, much more value for your money!
That is important.

There are less and less film types as well

We now have more access to different BW emulsions than 25 years ago.

and finding place to have it develloped is getting harder.

Fact is that even lots of new labs have started in the last three years.
All of them offering mail order business, most of them are offering their services even on an international basis.
To get films developed is very easy today.
Including self development, BW and colour.
More BW chemicals available than ever, and more colour development kits for home developing, too.

My take is that there might be 2-3 film production untis that keep running until the machines are worn out. Then it will be gone. All the brands will be nothing more than different boxes (already the case for quite a few brands).

We are hearing that complete BS from people without any knowledge of the photo industry again and again.
The facts are saying the complete opposite:
- Fujifilm hast invested in new production capacities to fulfill the increasing demand for their instant films
- Fuji has just announced increasing R&D for classic RA-4 silver-gelatin paper because of increasing demand
- Ilford is completely modernising its whole factory, investing more than 10 million pounds (there are several Ilford statements about that and a long thread on apug)
- InovisCoat has build a complete new modern film and photo paper factory in Germany (these are the former Agfa Leverkusen engineers), they are producing several film and paper products for different manufacturers ( www.inoviscoat.de )
- Film Ferrania is building up a new factory
- Foma has invested as well recently, planning on new products
- Adox is working on new products
- Impossible is investing in their factory in Enschede and working on new and improved products. This year they will introduce their first own new camera. They have also hired new stuff for refurbishing cameras in the last months.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

When you talk about the growth or shrinkage of the "digital camera market" these days, you must include in those numbers all cell phones that have cameras in them. People are simply switching from dedicated cameras to cell phone cameras.

Cell phones are not produced by our camera manufacturers.
That is the discussion point here.
The backbone, the most important product category, for all camera manufacturers have always been compact cameras (that has been the case for both film and digital).
80% of their business was this extremely important category.
Look at the CIPA numbers:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html

The digital market is not "collapsing" - at worst, it is simply shaking itself out and stabilizing.

There is no stabilizing at all in the digital camera market.
Look at the data:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html

Also, when you talk about the rebirth of the film photo market, or the growth of that market, you are talking about %'s of very small numbers. Yes, maybe the film world is bouncing upward from a crash, but the mass of people making pictures out there is not switching back to film.

No one has said otherwise here. Of course film is a niche, and will remain a niche.
But this niche is already partly growing.
And it will grow in further categories in the future.
Film also get lots of new interest from very young photographers. From the digital natives, which grew up with digital. Digital is quite 'boring' for them, nothing special, but film is new and exciting in their eyes.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

The most informed comment I see on the internet about trends in digital camera and sensor sales comes from Thom Hogan.

Thom Hogan is indeed often a good read.

But always best is just to look simply at the official data:
http://www.cipa.jp/stats/dc_e.html

Film processing is being gradually centralised at places like K-Mart;

You may also have a look here:
http://filmneverdie.com.au/collections/others
Very attractive prices.

Or here:
http://atkins.com.au/film-range-2/

Cheers, Jan

 

[froyd]

I look forward to picking up an S2 for $1200. Can somebody wake me up when that happens?

 

[daveleo]

Jan,

Let's clarify a point about the data you have linked to.
The data does not consider cellphone cameras as "digital cameras". It only includes dedicated digital cameras.

The data does not represent the "digital camera market" - it represents the "digital camera-only market". In that regard, no one can disagree - the dedicated digital camera market has been crashing due to increasing use of cellphone cameras. "Okay, what else is new ?"

And, although there is a simultaneous increase in the ("rediscovery" and) use of film, that is not the driving force behind the crashing market of dedicated P&S cameras.

And as far as "running the numbers" to compare the economics (and only the economics, not the joys) of digital vs film . . . we all know those numbers depend on how you set up the calculations and the embedded assumptions.

I don't think we disagree very much - we are just tripping over a few details.

 

[Aristophanes]

Digital photography is still increasing.

Analog film photography is still decreasing.

As smartphones got better they replaced most P&S.

The dedicated, higher-end camera market has become saturated.

The # of digital photos being taken and shared and archived is still increasing.

There is zero chance that any alternative exists to slow or stop this momentum.

Digital photography measured by users and by # of photos taken is now billionfolds more popular than film.

There is no digital market "collapse". In fact, the opposite is true. The stats indicate a market so overwhelmingly digitized that there is less demand for new equipment. This is a sign of total domination and success.

The biggest problem I see for the optical companies is they are pushing large file size media with a long delay at getting their products to play nice with he now dominant mobile OS's and absolute requirement of built-in connectivity. Any DSLR that does not connect to an iPhone for near instantaneous quick edits and sharing is a hard sell these days. Dedicated camera makers still rely on the home PC digital darkroom, which is a diminished market. The Japanese optical companies in particular have been in denial about the iOS/Android ecosystems totally dominating the imaging experience both from the creative end as well as the consumption end. I believe this lack of connectivity is a major stall point for sales.

 

[btgc]

When I read film is becoming or is niche product....but what about tea or coffee? Recently I locally bought a can of formosa, which I haven't seen here before and I suspect will not see after batch runs out. This fine tea is niche product so distributor most probably will not take it in again, after first batch stood long on shelves and even were sold at discount prices. It's niche. Good tea is niche as most of people buy poor quality tea in nylon bags for premium price. Compute price of bagged tea per kg and see itself it costs even more than fine loose tea.

Before Christmas I bought freshly roasted coffee from roasters in Germany. It cost me same as buying from local roasters but box were delivered home and I saved precious time. This is as niche as it can be because so many people brew their coffee from stale beans, not talking about those who buy pre-ground coffee. Only few people I know care what coffee they buy so good coffee is about or even more niche as film. And good part of ground coffee they buy costs same or more than freshly roasted beans.

But good tea and coffee still are grown and delivered to buyers despite they are niche. Now someone write again film is niche.

 

[Godfrey]

...
Is is already happening: Instant cameras are in a huge increase for several years now. Growth rates by 20-30% p.a..
Fujifilm is selling more instant cameras than digital cameras!
And remember: In 2007 / 08 all the"experts" said instant film will be the first film format killed by digital.
Now instant film has an impressive revival.
...

Instant Film was always a market independent of the rest of the film camera world, in my experience. It was always a tiny fraction of the film camera market seen as a whole, but huge in the low-end consumer space.

I am very happy to see instant film re-surfacing as it is a unique and viable world of photography, but pointing to instant film as a resurgence of the film camera market is a bit off the mark IMO.

G

 

[Aristophanes]

I have a Fuji Instax and it is novelty over fidelity.

They are sold by the checkouts of Wal-Mart.

The sales of Fuji's Instax are so microscopic compared to digital they are a thousandth of a % in sales comparatively.

 

[Ranchu]

I shoot Kodak Ultramax 400 all the time, I really like it. So Kodak is not "just gone". It's a lot nicer than fuji, imo. Except for the 400X and the c41 1600 which is gone 🙁, but...I am curious about the fuji 100 c41, and that cheap 200 they sell. I don't like the "4th layer"!

 

[Bille]

We will have a film revival similar to the development we've seen in the market for mechanical watches and vinyl.

Really?

http://www.google.de/trends/explore#q=fuji neopan

http://www.google.de/trends/explore#q=kodak tri-x

http://www.google.de/trends/explore#q=plustek

http://www.google.de/trends/explore#q=film development