Photography Economics

[pete hogan]

And I would suggest that a lot of the Tri-X is going into refrigerators. That's not exactly good news to a film manufacturer.

 

[Ranchu]

I do love negative color. Slides too, but not as much DR with those, I don't want to give that up...I have never actually owned a light table.

 

[Ranchu]

And I would suggest that a lot of the Tri-X is going into refrigerators. That's not exactly good news to a film manufacturer.

And a lot of digital cameras are staying on the shelf, at the store. I would suggest that that's even worse news for a digital camera manufacturer.

😉

 

[Roger Hicks]

. . . We now have more access to different BW emulsions than 25 years ago. . . .

Dear Jan,

Are you sure? Subtract 25 from 2015 and you get 1990. Agfa, Forte, Polaroid, Efke... Those are whole marques. Then look at the films that have been discontinued (HIE?), even if the makers are still in business... I think you may be mistaken.

Cheers,

R.

 

[HHPhoto]

Jan,

Let's clarify a point about the data you have linked to.
The data does not consider cellphone cameras as "digital cameras". It only includes dedicated digital cameras.

Yes, of course.
That is what our manufacturers, those who serve our needs, produce. Leica, Nikon, Canon, Pentax, Fujifilm, Cosina,Olympus etc. don't produce cell phones.
We are in a photographer forum here.
We are working with real cameras.
So all what is affecting our manufacturers is important to us.

Our manufacturers have build up huge production capacities in the period from 2002 to 2010.
Now they have huge over-capacities because of the sales crash.
Their economies of scale are getting worser every year.
Their margins are declining.

To demonstrate what fundamental change is currently happening look at the following:
The sales for film in 1999 were 3 billion films.
The sales for film in 2007 were 1 billion films.
This reduction about 2/3 of the market took the time of 8 years.

The production of digital cameras in 2010 was 121,7 million units.
The production in 2014 was about 42 million units.
This reduction about 2/3 of the market took the time of only 4 years.

The change in demand for our digital camera manufacturers is even more dramatic (and much more unexpected) than the change in film demand in the last decade.

At Photokina I talked to market analysts.
They expect this trend to continue and would not be surprised if in 3-4 years the first of the bigger manufacturers have to quit the market.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

Kodak is just gone.

"Totgesagte leben länger" as we say here in Germany......🙂
Kodak is not dead.
They reported an increase of 15% globally for their professional film recently.
Tri-X is still the most popular BW film worldwide (I think it is overrated, but that is of course just my subjective, personal opinion 😉).

I can buy Kodak film here in Germany "at every corner of the street" because all drugstore chain shops are selling Kodak color film (and other films as well, BW and color reversal).
They also offer film development (C41, E6, BW) and RA-4 prints.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

Really?

Thank you Bille for these "Google trend" links.
That was a really good laugh 😀.
Never seen such crappy, idiotic statistics.
E.g. they put interest in film development in India at 100, and in Germany only at 14.
What a nonsense.
Every market researcher will shake his head.
Germany is one of the most important markets for film, very strong compared to other countries.
And the market for film and development in Germany is much much bigger compared to India.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

Instant Film was always a market independent of the rest of the film camera world, in my experience. It was always a tiny fraction of the film camera market seen as a whole, but huge in the low-end consumer space.

Oh no, it was never only a tiny fraction of the whole camera market.
More than 600 million instant cameras have been sold over the decades.
Impossible Project made a statement that due to their market research currently more than 300 million Polaroid cameras are still out there and functional.
Their business for refurbishing these cameras is a really big one and increasing by over 30% each year.
They had to hire new staff last year to satisfy the demand.

And they announced their first new one camera being introduced this year (summer is planned).

I am very happy to see instant film re-surfacing as it is a unique and viable world of photography, but pointing to instant film as a resurgence of the film camera market is a bit off the mark IMO.

G

Fujifilm sold more than 2,6 million new Instax cameras last year.
More than their digital cameras.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

The sales of Fuji's Instax are so microscopic compared to digital they are a thousandth of a % in sales comparatively.

Sorry, complete nonesense.
2,6 million Instax cameras are about 6% of the 2014 digital camera sales (42 mio).
Lots of digital camera manufacturers would be very happy to have
- a product whith such a sales volume
- a product with increasing demand (Instax is increasing).

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

Dear Jan,

Are you sure? Subtract 25 from 2015 and you get 1990. Agfa, Forte, Polaroid, Efke... Those are whole marques.

Cheers,

R.

Dear Roger,

there has always been a "come and go" for films and brands.
I was referring to the situation in western Europe at that time.
Forte and Foma for example were not available even at the specialised mail order shops at that time (that came a bit later).
Kodak, Ilford and Agfa, that was it in 1990.
Well, Agfa Leverkusen is gone. But now we have (even more) films from Agfa Belgium (via Rollei-Film and Adox).
Ilford is offering more today than 1990, and has a second new brand with Kentmere films.
Rollei-Film is offering interesting new stuff from several manufacturers. Adox is now here, they were not at 1990.

Yes, looking at my price lists from 1900 (I still have them), and at my price lists from today, I have more choices in BW today.

I have currently less choices in colour today, that is correct.
But
- the colour films are today much much better in quality compared to the films 25 years ago
- I am convinced that we will see a film revival in the next years (like we've seen in vinyl).
And then new color films will be offered.
Inoviscoat and Film Ferrania are the first signs of that development.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

Possible, but where exactly do I buy 35mm Ektachrome?

It is quite easy:
1. Buy Provia 100F or AgfaPhoto Precisa CT 100.
2. Use a lens with a bit warmer color transmission
or
3. Use a slight warming filter, like a Skylight 1A or 1B.

Which are the main differences between Ektachrome 100G (and Elitechrome 100) and Provia 100F / CT Precisa?
- Provia / CT Precisa have a very neutral, natural color rendition
- E100G is a little bit warmer, with a slight emphasis on yellow
- all three are identical in fineness of grain and resolution
- Provia / Precisa is a little bit sharper (higher MTF at lower spatial frequencies).
Also look at:
http://www.aphog.de/?p=364

In our photo club we've had lots of fans of Ektachrome / Elitechrome.
Of course they cried when Kodak stopped production.
But then we did several direct comparison tests:

- Lenses with different (some warmer, some colder) color transmission
- Skylight Filter 1A, 1B.

Results:
- shots with Provia / Precisa and warm lenses looked even a bit warmer compared to Ektachrome on colder lenses
- Provia on colder lenses, but Skylight 1B filter looked comparable to Ektachrome
- Provia on neutral lenses with 1A filter looked comparable to Ektachrome.

In a blind test even the most hardcore Ektachrome users could not identify the Ektachrome slides in the group of slides in which also the Provia slides with filter or warmer lenses had been.

And of course an even much bigger influence on color rendition (warmer, colder) has the color temperature of the natural light.
I always say to color photographers:
Don't care too much on color rendition of your film.
Look for the natural light. That is what makes images beautiful.

Summary:
Ektachrome users can also be happy with Provia and CT Precisa.

Cheers, Jan

 

[HHPhoto]

Really better than 25 years ago, I think not.

The current slide films (and color negative films) are much much better than 25 years ago.
- much finer grain
- significantly higher resolution
- better sharpness
- much better color reproduction
- much better color stability.

Cheers, Jan

 

[David Hughes]

Hmmm, just put the price of a process paid 20 frame slide film in 1959 into the machine and it says from about 30 to about 106 GB pounds in 2013's money. So I guess it's cheaper and we get 24 frames these days...

I'll have a look at the average cost of a colour print film over the last year or so when I've some time. Should we count bargains on ebay?

Regards, David

 

[jsrockit]

Dear Roger,

- I am convinced that we will see a film revival in the next years (like we've seen in vinyl).

Film most likely already sells in larger quantities (percentage wise) versus digital when in comparison to vinyl vs. digital downloads / CDs. Neither are indicative of a real resurgence to mainstream credibility (perhaps fortunately). However, now cassette tapes are coming back. I've bought a few this past year. Formats / media never truly die unless they were useless / convoluted in the first place.

 

[gb hill]

Film most likely already sells in larger quantities (percentage wise) versus digital when in comparison to vinyl vs. digital downloads / CDs. Neither are indicative of a real resurgence to mainstream credibility (perhaps fortunately). However, now cassette tapes are coming back. I've bought a few this past year. Formats / media never truly die unless they were useless / convoluted in the first place.

When my uncle passed away I got his 1973 Ford F-100 pickup. He had a brand new indabox 8 track tape player he never installed so I did to play his collection of 8 Track tapes. I had such a hard time trying to find a matchbook to be able to tear off & fold the cover to wedge under the tape. Dang lighters have just ruined the matchbook market.😀 True story.

 

[gb hill]

As for on topic, I'm really afraid as a B&W film shooter that film will rise in prices because the demand of silver. People who buy gold are now buying silver. I don't know for sure that this will affect the silver market but I really don't see how it won't. But even with the cost of digital camera's coming down I still can't afford a Fuji X100T.

 

[Vics]

The price of silver affects the price of film. See http://silverprice.org/silver-price-history.html

 

[David Hughes]

Hi,

Easiest thing in the world to dig out an old catalogue and look at the price but, as I said about ebay, prices in the street/market are not those marked up in the big catalogues.

I look at prices of film from time to time and see that I pay less in the local supermarket than the selling price on ebay, with postage.

Regards, David

 

[Bille]

Thank you Bille for these "Google trend" links.
That was a really good laugh 😀.
Never seen such crappy, idiotic statistics.

"Google Trends is a public web facility (...) based on Google Search, that shows how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume across various regions of the world."

Data can never be "idiotic". Conclusions may be.

 

[Skiff]

"Google Trends is a public web facility (...) based on Google Search, that shows how often a particular search-term is entered relative to the total search-volume across various regions of the world."

Data can never be "idiotic". Conclusions may be.

If you really believe to that numbers, then look precisely: Interest has stabilized in 2014.
And a stabilization is a requirement for a revival in the future.

But I also have my doubts concerning these numbers.
There is a growing film community on facebook, connecting there, building new groups, exchanging information via this channel.
That is not covered by google, and you also don't see these people here or in other forums.