Severe crisis at Nikon

[shawn]

You mean the world before Nicolaus Copernicus?

Eratosthenes calculated the circumference of the Earth around 235BC. Some knew the world was round for a very long time.

Shawn

 

[De_Corday]

as a nikon news and doc shooter... when I sit with a bunch of other freelance PJs their cameras are almost always Canons. Canon has owned two crucial things in the PJ/documentary world: video, and compact pro-DSLRs. Nikon video has always lagged behind Canon. And when Nikon made the D800, they got rid of some of the features that made the 700 such a good all-arounder for news shooters. Canon, meanwhile, kept churning out new versions of the 5D. I get that this is a small slice of the market, but Nikon seemed to think that working news pros only wanted blazing fast autofocus a la D4s &5s -- Canon I think knows better.
I'm still waiting for a worthy successor to my trusty D700.

 

[brennanphotoguy]

as a nikon news and doc shooter... when I sit with a bunch of other freelance PJs their cameras are almost always Canons. Canon has owned two crucial things in the PJ/documentary world: video, and compact pro-DSLRs. Nikon video has always lagged behind Canon. And when Nikon made the D800, they got rid of some of the features that made the 700 such a good all-arounder for news shooters. Canon, meanwhile, kept churning out new versions of the 5D. I get that this is a small slice of the market, but Nikon seemed to think that working news pros only wanted blazing fast autofocus a la D4s &5s -- Canon I think knows better.
I'm still waiting for a worthy successor to my trusty D700.

What turned you off to the D750?

 

[mothertrucker]

Build it for 7000 EUR per unit and sell it for 6000 EUR per unit. Sounds like a clever business plan.

If Sony can figure out how to sell full frame A7's for ~1300 USD, I certainly hope it's not going to cost Nikon another 4-5000 USD per camera to tack on a rangefinder and put it in a fancy case.

Leica is making money selling cameras for the prices they sell at. There is certainly room in the market for other companies doing the same thing.

 

[radi(c)al_cam]

Eratosthenes calculated the circumference of the Earth around 235BC. Some knew the world was round for a very long time.

Shawn

Hush-hush! … All this so called «knowledge» is totally un-American, it's either ancient humbug, or Roman Catholic wizardry, but it's certainly no good for good brave U.S. citizen!

 

[Huss]

Hush-hush! … All this so called «knowledge» is totally un-American, it's either ancient humbug, or Roman Catholic wizardry, but it's certainly no good for good brave U.S. citizen!

Is this the point where this thread got de-railed?
:angel:

 

[radi(c)al_cam]

Is this the point where this thread got de-railed?
:angel:

Severe crisis?! 😛

 

[tunalegs]

Is this the point where this thread got de-railed?
:angel:

Don't worry, he just has an odd fixation/fascination with Americans for some reason.

I'm starting to think he is one. 😀

 

[PKR]

As much as 50%? Its been about 45% - 50% for some time, with the bulk of the remainder coming from photo-lithography equipment and a small percentage coming from instruments and medical.



Most of those are getting cut from photo-lithography equipment sector, not the imaging/camera sector.

Jon; Are these people from the "Stepper" sector? That's a big part of Nikon's income.

 

[PKR]

Part of the problem is their attempts to enter different markets.
The key mission is, in my opinion, wasted time and money spent on an already shrinking market.
Just look at GoPro for how well that market is going.
And the DL is too little too late.
Sure the 18-50mm version would be nice, but the Sony RX100 series is readily available.

It seems Nikon should focus on what they do best.
Make great DSLRs and great lenses.
Or somehow create a mirrorless camera that could surpass Sony and Fuji in price and performance.

GoPro is local to me. They have big money and stock problems. Sales maybe hit saturation wall. They are "reinventing" themselves. New drone, etc. Think down size is likely. Really good local cam co is Black Magic camera. Think folks from Red Cam who didn't move to LA.


https://www.blackmagicdesign.com/products/cinemacameras

More expensive than GoPro but pro video files. Several models Inc. Full remote.

 

[jonmanjiro]

Jon; Are these people from the "Stepper" sector? That's a big part of Nikon's income.

photo-lithography equipment = stepper sector = semiconductor/FPD lithography business

There's two parts to the photo-lithography equipment sector: the machines for manufacturing flat screen panels (FPD lithography business) and the machines for manufacturing circuits on silicon wafers (semiconductor lithography business). The FPD lithography business is doing ok, but Nikon is pulling out of the semiconductor lithography business because the technology has moved beyond Nikon's field of expertise and they can no longer compete. ASML has that market pretty much to itself now. Nikon's recently announced "extraordinary loss" was mostly incurred due to writing off the semiconductor lithography business.

 

[Colin Corneau]

The IPhone is killing photography!

I guess Fuji didn't get that memo.

The notion of a quality mirrorless that can easily take Nikon F-mount lenses is very interesting.

 

[PKR]

photo-lithography equipment = stepper sector = semiconductor/FPD lithography business

There's two parts to the photo-lithography equipment sector: the machines for manufacturing flat screen panels (FPD lithography business) and the machines for manufacturing circuits on silicon wafers (semiconductor lithography business). The FPD lithography business is doing ok, but Nikon is pulling out of the semiconductor lithography business because the technology has moved beyond Nikon's field of expertise and they can no longer compete. ASML has that market pretty much to itself now. Nikon's recently announced "extraordinary loss" was mostly incurred due to writing off the semiconductor lithography business.

Thanks Jon. I knew you would be up on this.

I have 2 friends, both division heads, at Nikon USA. One is way past retirement age. The other has a few years to go. I haven't brought the slowdown up in our email exchanges. I was waiting to hear something from him. He's in the pro camera group. I hope his job is secure.

Best, pkr

 

[maddoc]

photo-lithography equipment = stepper sector = semiconductor/FPD lithography business

There's two parts to the photo-lithography equipment sector: the machines for manufacturing flat screen panels (FPD lithography business) and the machines for manufacturing circuits on silicon wafers (semiconductor lithography business). The FPD lithography business is doing ok, but Nikon is pulling out of the semiconductor lithography business because the technology has moved beyond Nikon's field of expertise and they can no longer compete. ASML has that market pretty much to itself now. Nikon's recently announced "extraordinary loss" was mostly incurred due to writing off the semiconductor lithography business.

I wonder why Nikon had let it happen this way. Is ASML such a large company with huge R&D that they could outperform Nikon in the semiconductor lithography business?

 

[Huss]

I guess Fuji didn't get that memo.

The notion of a quality mirrorless that can easily take Nikon F-mount lenses is very interesting.

I do that all the time with my M240. It allows me to use lenses like the Nikkor AIS 105 1.8

 

[jonmanjiro]

I wonder why Nikon had let it happen this way. Is ASML such a large company with huge R&D that they could outperform Nikon in the semiconductor lithography business?

I think there's multiple contributing factors, with a main one being that the technology has evolved to the point where the limits of optical systems must be exceeded to achieve the ever finer line widths required of leading edge semiconductor lithography systems. Nikon's field of expertise is optics, and the difficulty for them has been in developing other technologies for pushing beyond optical limits to achieve these finer line widths. Nikon's R&D program hasn't progressed as hoped, and ASML has only opened the gap further and further.

There's a good Japanese language article about the situation at the link below, which covers more detail (for those who don't read Japanese, Google Translate does an ok job in translating it).

http://www.excite.co.jp/News/economy_g/20161205/Keizaikai_23475.html

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.excite.co.jp%2FNews%2Feconomy_g%2F20161205%2FKeizaikai_23475.html

 

[shawn]

I guess Fuji didn't get that memo.

The notion of a quality mirrorless that can easily take Nikon F-mount lenses is very interesting.

Just about all of the mirrorless cameras can take Nikon lenses and plenty of others too. I use my Nikons on Fuji mirrorless. About the only mirrorless camera that isn't as flexible is the Sigma SD Quattro as they reused the same mount from their DSLR cameras. That is a longer flange distance so there isn't room for adapters between the camera and lens.

Shawn

 

[maddoc]

Thanks a lot! I will read it later.

I think there's multiple contributing factors, with a main one being that the technology has evolved to the point where the limits of optical systems mush be exceeded to achieve the ever finer line widths required of leading edge semiconductor lithography systems. Nikon's field of expertise is optics, and the difficulty for them has been in developing other technologies for pushing beyond optical limits to achieve these finer line widths. Nikon's R&D program hasn't progressed as hoped, and ASML has only opened the gap further and further.

There's a good Japanese language article about the situation at the link below, which covers more detail (for those who don't read Japanese, Google Translate does an ok job in translating it).

http://www.excite.co.jp/News/economy_g/20161205/Keizaikai_23475.html

https://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=ja&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.excite.co.jp%2FNews%2Feconomy_g%2F20161205%2FKeizaikai_23475.html

 

[nikonhswebmaster]

I wonder why Nikon had let it happen this way. Is ASML such a large company with huge R&D that they could outperform Nikon in the semiconductor lithography business?

ASML is huge compared to Nikon, with a market cap of 51.35B USD. My point, perhaps never as clearly put as Jon, was that Nikon is really not in trouble compared to other camera manufacturers, they are just exiting the semiconductor lithography business, which has changed from optical.

The damage to the camera business was more clearly reflected in 2013 (could have the year wrong?) when their stock dropped something like 19% after a report.

Stock movements like that can mean the end of a company (look for the PanAm building on Park Ave, NYC) but my read is not nearly so clear on that front. Jon may have some more thoughts?

The interesting part of the Japanese article is the mention that Nikon was actually a munitions company, forced into civilian optical production by the US occupation. See attached a Nikon periscope I used to own.

 

[maddoc]

I did not know that part about Nikon`s history, always thought they had their roots in optical parts business only.

Thanks for adding this!

ASML is huge compared to Nikon, with a market cap of 51.35B USD. My point, perhaps never as clearly put as Jon, was that Nikon is really not in trouble compared to other camera manufacturers, they are just exiting the semiconductor lithography business, which has changed from optical.

The damage to the camera business was more clearly reflected in 2013 (could have the year wrong?) when their stock dropped something like 19% after a report.

Stock movements like that can mean the end of a company (look for the PanAm building on Park Ave, NYC) but my read is not nearly so clear on that front. Jon may have some more thoughts?

The interesting part of the Japanese article is the mention that Nikon was actually a munitions company, forced into civilian optical production by the US occupation. See attached a Nikon periscope I used to own.