keithwms said:
Okay, fair enough. Then my final point will be that it doesn't really matter if Joe Sixpack thinks he needs/wants to buy larger sensors: he will eventually buy them regardless. Joe Sixpack has bought HDTV, GPS, cell phones, ipods, PDAs, laptops, and a whole lot of other unnecessary but cute technology that's out there.
I don't believe Joe will be offered digital cameras with larger sensors. As you've noted, he buys iPods. He is told what makes a TV good, and he buys that. He doesn't understand it, really, nor does he want to. In digital cameras, he is told by the marketing wonks that megapixels are good. More of them are better. So what do we see? The megapixel war continues. Oh, the pundits have announced it is over, but the truth is, we've just reached max density for a short amount of time. New tech breakthroughs will put more and more pixels onto the same tiny sensor, and it will sell because now that the 'more is better' meme has been implanted, Joe wants that.
Meanwhile, the marketing wonks have been hard at work trying to get Joe interested in some other aspects of digital cameras to make him want this year's model and discard last year's as trash. Face-recognition technology, oh boy. High zoom. Image stabilization - note that some are true optical or sensor shift technologies, and others just up the ISO to avoid hand-shake-induced fuzzy pics. And as always - proprietary batteries get redesigned every year, so last year's model soon won't have batteries available for it, and when it won't take a charge, you HAVE to buy the model. But I digress.
Nowhere in all this is the need for a large sensor, nor is it being pitched by the marketing types. You have to paw through the tech specs to even find the sensor size. As I've said - it MIGHT have been destined for the consumer market anyway a few months ago - because large sensors provide a number of benefits, and one of the side-bennies is low noise at higher ISO. This could have played well in a consumer digicam, but now Kodak has an even smaller sensor that has low noise, so oh well for that.
Look at the market reaction to cameras like the GR digital. I heard people complaining that it had no zoom. They didn't grok why you would not want a camera with zoom. The DP-1 has no zoom. It will likewise fail to be a big runaway hit with the stocking-stuffer crowd at Christmas time.
We get it - we understand the purpose of specialized cameras like the GR digital and the DP-1 (even if we don't agree with or want one, at least we know what market they're trying to serve).
I submit that if the DP-1 was sold for $150 and placed on Wal-Mart shelves, it would still fail to be a big seller. No zoom, no sexy TV ad campaign, no zoom, no anti-shake technology, no zoom, and a body as ugly as homemade soap. Oh, and no zoom. They don't want it. The sensor size never enters into it.
[One of my biggest concerns about the direction of new technology is just how fundamentally unnecessary it is for survival... which, I worry, moves our whole consumer economy further away from sound fundamentals. Agriculture is vital for our survival; ipods - not so much. Are we going to be buying corn from China in the future? But I digress.]
You and I might be able to share a beer or two over that one. I tried to reason with the numbskulls who thought fuel from corn was a good idea when corn is a zero sum game, but they didn't listen, and now food prices are going up due to corn shortages...duh. I think lack of genetic diversity in our food chain (GMO's) are terribly stupid and short-sighted, as we'll find out when one new mutant bacteria or virus wipes all our corn (or wheat, or soy, etc) crop in one fell swoop, because they're all genetically the same. We won't put up with irradiated food that would cut our food poisoning problems by 90%, but we've already had GMO escapes into the wild, and we just shrug - oh well, it's probably safe. God, we're a pack of morons.
Listen, I think the segway is a dumb implement, but Joe Sixpack will be running us over with them before long, just you wait!
Now you sound like me. But I don't think it will be Segways. I think it will be those little golf-cart devices at Wal-Mart put there for the use of the people who are so incredibly obese that they cannot walk anymore. Note how many of them there are on your next trip, if you can bring yourself to go to one.
A slightly different spin on the situation: it is our role as brilliant and skilled photographers <ahem> to show the consumer what we can do. We don't like to think of ourselves as a cog in a big mass-marketing machine, but... if we like our medium, whether digital or film, we have to fight to keep companies and their r&d afloat. It's not enough any more to be aloof and say, gee, I have a good camera; it's all I need; I am happy. Joe Sixpack and his consumer dollars are going on a wild ride, we're just holding on.
Looks like we've reached a state of agreement at last. Yes, some will rise out of the primordial ooze of "Married with Children" or whatever the hit du jour is on TV these days, and see a well-executed photograph and wonder if they could do something like that.
I am fully aware that if I had stayed where I was raised, among my friends and relations, I'd be running a Ditch Witch for a living and thinking that having an extra fridge on the back porch for my Pabst Blue Ribbon was pretty much living high too. I just got lucky.