Some predictions about the future of photography

Nah I disagree. To prove my point just show someone an actual print of a photo, or a photo album. It's like they have never seen a picture before.

Perhaps we are surrounded by 'images' but not 'photographs'
 
Actually some of his later comments which qualify his earlier blanket statements are quite insightful. I guess it's more about the business than the enjoyment.
 
I think much of what he says is applicable to every industry these days - we are rapidly going from service to commodity. People want "it" (pictures, software, luxury goods) now and cheap, and there is money to be made producing it. Graphic design, programming architecture, and pretty much any "creative" field is feeling this pinch.

For quite some time I was trying to worry about how to book sessions to fund the equipment I would need for more sessions, but have come to peace with a sentiment shared by street photographer Thomas Leuthar. Find what you like to do (ie, develop a style), get the right equipment for that, and don't worry about the rest. Don't think of it as a job, and certainly don't think of it in terms of "keeping up with the next guy".

...that being said, I'll be sure to let you know when I get that down
 
My overriding prediction? That in the next ten years photography will slide into the warm goo of modern culture and have no more relevance than the background music in the fast food restaurant in which you are having lunch.


I suspect that's largely correct. Once we gave up the notion that a photograph should, in some meaningful way, represent what was in front of the camera at the time of exposure we gave up on it having any real value. Video and the increasingly short attention span resulting from TV and other media have completed the almost total death of photo as witness. When that's gone and all that's left is pretty pictures that might as well be entirely computer generated, there's nothing left of value. Hence Kirk's return to MF film mono portaits.
 
fun column. i agree with his generational premise. just what will they demand of manufacturers?
i have to say, though, that there remains an appreciation of black and white film work. i see it out here in redneck alabama, of all places. but an actual market for it? we'll have to wait and see ...
 
I have told this story before but a year or so ago I was at a parade and I was changing film and two dopey looking teenagers came up to me wondering what I was doing. I said it was the latest technology, film, and it would soon replace digital. They were so impressed. And so it goes......
 
How do you explain then that contemporary people always have the feeling that they have to say something urgently and express it quickly, for instance by a photographic message on the mobile phone?
Somehow, they feel lonely in the wealth of information. Suddenly a lot of dogs appear – people need to communicate with someone and are unable to communicate with each other. I often say to myself when I travel by tram: For heaven’s sake so many people, but where is the kindred spirit? I do not doubt that many people contemplate it. We speak about it, but we cannot do anything about it. We have learnt to live in lies. We tend to believe in certain things which are not valid. We have ceased to perceive emotions. Nowadays, everybody tests his IQ, but we ignore EQ which is more essential for life. At the same time everything starts with emotion – I can try to persuade myself in vain what I should do and how I should decide about the future to make the right decision. After all, everything turns out differently because of emotions. It cannot be planned. Naturally, one should have a certain vision, but in order to develop it, he has to be emotionally mature. Otherwise he will suffer disappointments. This world develops towards the prevalence of rationality, which is a trap into which we can easily fall.
 
hellomikmik said:
How do you explain then that contemporary people always have the feeling that they have to say something urgently and express it quickly, for instance by a photographic message on the mobile phone?
Somehow, they feel lonely in the wealth of information. Suddenly a lot of dogs appear – people need to communicate with someone and are unable to communicate with each other. I often say to myself when I travel by tram: For heaven’s sake so many people, but where is the kindred spirit? I do not doubt that many people contemplate it. We speak about it, but we cannot do anything about it. We have learnt to live in lies. We tend to believe in certain things which are not valid. We have ceased to perceive emotions. Nowadays, everybody tests his IQ, but we ignore EQ which is more essential for life. At the same time everything starts with emotion – I can try to persuade myself in vain what I should do and how I should decide about the future to make the right decision. After all, everything turns out differently because of emotions. It cannot be planned. Naturally, one should have a certain vision, but in order to develop it, he has to be emotionally mature. Otherwise he will suffer disappointments. This world develops towards the prevalence of rationality, which is a trap into which we can easily fall.
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I agree, I also believe things will change, as was said above some 20yr olds still play records. I have hope that in time the masses of facebook images made on smart phones will help people differentiate between photographs and simple pics. In the meantime I will continue to print, both digitally and in the darkroom, as many of my photographs as I can, and will encourage as many other photographers as I can to do the same. Then when the time comes that people can 'see' photographs again, there will actually be some to look at that have recorded the people, places, emotions, and thoughts of the photographers of this time, in the way they have done for generations before.
 
The photography Tuck has made a living at will continue its decline, because it was based on specialized knowledge - how to properly expose film, use lights, develop prints, etc.. That knowledge is no longer specialized - anyone can take a modern dslr and produce a usable, even good, file, particularly if, as he notes, the user is somewhat creative to start with.

OTOH, the web has opened up a massive new way to sell arts and crafts without having to go through a gallery, storefront or art fair. Etsy, SupermarketHQ, personal websites. More artists than ever before will be able to turn a few bucks from selling prints online, publishing books on demand - and this has the added benefit of getting unique work in the hands of the average person.

There will be fewer people making a living directly from their artisanship, but more artisans overall.
 
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/11/13/opinion/sunday/the-entrepreneurial-generation.html?pagewanted=all

^^^^
I think he hits some truths about my generation (well, maybe - no one seems to agree on what generation people born in 1981 belong to), but I'm not sure commercialism is the right way to frame it. I see young people as deeply cynical about the future and corporations/employers - entrepreneurial craftsmanship is a way to establish some sense of independence (economically and culturally) to ward off the old "life of quiet desperation."
 
I just bought a coffee after a morning walk near the coastal town I holiday in every year. Instead of the paper I picked up a landscape orientation periodical called Monster Children. It's a surf and skate mag. The photographs of a young woman featured, prints made by a 150 year old tin process, all of surfers in various parts of the US. Some beautiful landscapes and portraits. Knowing that the future is in the hands of the young I have every confidence in them taking us somewhere worth going.
 
There have always been, still are, and always will be, much more important roles for photography than that of commerce and advertising. don't underestimate the people of your own generation celluloidprop, like many from my generation do.Quality photographs as two dimensional prints and not just low res screen images, will always have a place in the arts and recording our or societies.
 
I like Kirk (he lives here in Austin) and he's a fine photographer and writer/blogger.

But I have to disagree with him...this isn't a prediction, it's already here.

It's the digital world, and the same things are going on in other industries as they transition from analog.

But it's always been the case that there are those photogs ( insert: artists, songwriters, writers, musicians, et al) at the top who can demand major bucks, and those at the bottom that can't. It's just now there is a larger pool.
 
This article is dead on the money and is reflective of society as a whole. The democratization of anything always brings it to the lowest common denominator. That's the cell phone today. Everything else will get specialized. Prints for general purpose will go away. I agree with everything he's said.

Now for the other side of that coin, I say look at our own Frank Petronio. He's unplugging, "reducing his online footprint", loves his speed graphic. I'd say he's on the firing line of trying to earn a buck in photography or maybe he's got other ideas. In any case, I hope he looks at this thread and comments, as I think he's headed in a very interesting direction, especially since he works so much with the internet gen, his models.

I've been looking at Speed Graphics lately. The problem is, I remember how difficult it was to make a great print in the darkroom. Not a good print, but a great print. I have only a handful. Photoshop and the computers made that a whole lot easier.

Question is, will there be any place for a really "great print" in the coming years.
 
Now, the only other thing to figure out is why, all of a sudden, I could buy a Fuji Instax camera at Office Depot, complete with whatever amount of color print material I wanted. Maybe cost $110 for the camera and two boxes of film.

This was something that I don't think ever was on sale at Office Depot, right next to the digital cameras.
 
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