I remember reading many a stories like that in Shutterbug, it used to be a yearly thing. Of course I enjoyed reading them, predictions like $5 one-time-use-digital cameras in 10 years is one I remember from the late 1990s...
Roger, I like to ask you a question and hope you will give us your professional opinion.
Nikon stopped all Film R&D in early 2006, decided to put all their eggs in the digital basket. The F6 is said to be the last film camera they will ever produce. Seems to me Leica went that route as well, the introduction of the S2 seems the next step in the evolution of R series cameras and lenses.
Do you think Nikon will ever produce other than Digi-SLRs or Coolpix stuff?
Regards,
Kiu
Dear Kiu,
Ummm.........
I'm not close enough to Nikon to know, and I already have a modest amount of egg on my face from the S2, but put it this way:
No, I don't think they'll go outside DSLRs and Coolpices (note new plural based on 'index'),
except perhaps for the occasional 'Commemorative' film camera. For example, I'd not be too astonished at a reprise of the original 24x32 RF (Nikon I/Nikorette). This is because such cameras provide excellent training for apprentices, and help designers 'think out of the box' by reminding them how things used to be done.
A 24x36mm sensor for a digital RF is a non-trivial undertaking, and fitting everything into a sensible-sized body is demanding too, which is why the M8 looks a bit overfed. On top of this, an S-mount body -- let's call it an S4D -- would appeal almost exclusively to collectors because compared with Leica there are very few lenses out there and the narrow throat of the S-mount is extremely restrictive. It would also be horrifyingly expensive.
An M-mount body (SM, maybe) would have a bigger market but I can't see it being significantly cheaper than a Leica M8.2 or (in due course) M9. Cheaper, possibly; significantly cheaper, no.
It's probably possible to build a 24x36 RF right now with dedicated telecentric lenses, but they'd be very expensive and you'd really need a new mount. Otherwise people would try to use legacy lenses, and complain.
As for Leica and digital, I suspect that the MP and M7 meet the demands of those who want film cameras, so there's not much need for R+D there. What killed the last R was the withdrawal of the digital sensor -- they were selling modestly, and making a profit -- and so Leica invested a lot in becoming more independent of minor suppliers. The S2 ('Afrika') was a brilliantly kept secret and I'd expect an R10 as soon as they have enough manpower to design/make it, again with a Kodak sensor.
But as I say, such predictions are always more interesting as entertainment than as futurology.
Cheers,
Roger