Swine Flu from Mexico reaching Pandemic level?

Before everyone gets ready to have their life insurance cashed in, let's recall that this is isolated, that the nutrition status of many in Mexico is GROSSLY worse than the US, and that the standard for care here is much better. The season is Spring, not Fall, and that the level of rsik and severity of cases is widely distributed.
Not a time to allow ourselves to be worked into a worried frenzy, folks.
oldoc
MD
 
oldoc said:
Before everyone gets ready to have their life insurance cashed in, let's recall that this is isolated, that the nutrition status of many in Mexico is GROSSLY worse than the US, and that the standard for care here is much better. The season is Spring, not Fall, and that the level of rsik and severity of cases is widely distributed.
Not a time to allow ourselves to be worked into a worried frenzy, folks.
oldoc
MD
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Are you sure about that (nutrition)? I go there one or two times a year, they look healthy to me. Plus they have what everybody seems to want in the this country: socialized medicine. But you are right; it is no time for frenzy.
 
The school outbreak is still a mystery to me. It's about 15 miles away from me. No suspicions till half of the 150 students got sick? (okay, 8 students have positive test and show clinical symptoms but how many students are carriers? ) Majority students take public transportation EVERY DAY. How many people did they have contact with in the past a few days? God knows.
Yeah, okay, it's too late for vaccination or prophylaxis even if it is available.
I am not going to panic since I survived SARS (was in China during the outbreak lol). This is just life.
 
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I am absolutely certain about the nutritional, and medical aspects of the differences between the countries.
Looks, especially in the population of those below the poverty line, which is four- fold that in the US, are very deceiving. Immunizations are scarce for economic reasons, and the depth and breadth of medical care is orders of magnitude lower...
 
The comparison to the bird flu is a non-starter. How can you even suggest this is due to a slow news day? Bird flu did not mutate - as expected, to infect humans but WHO was concerned and still is. THIS one is the real deal - very serious. They're walking around with masks in Mexico City, all kinds of quarantining going on there and it has spread to the US...

“We don’t think we can contain the spread of this virus,” she said yesterday in a conference call with reporters. "

Not that there's anything that can be done at this point but its already here and we will see more and more cases next week. Going in to a frenzy won't help, of course. But a flu/pandemic of this nature has nothing to do with socialized vs non-socialized medicine or "nutrition"...
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Confirmed in a local student who just returned from Mexico.

Might be a good week to stay a bit isolated, get caught up on that darkroom work.

People in charge seem to be doing the right things.

Spanish Flu in 1918 killed more than WWI, and recent studies suggest it came from the US, not Spain.

We got lucky with the bird flu, maybe we will get lucky again. A lot of birds are dead though.

J
 
Clearly cause for concern. However for anyone on RFF there is an influence of socioeconomic factors, probably, in your own survival. The world was in major trouble in 1918 at the end of the war and the death rate from the 1957 and 1968 pandemics was not nearly so high. I think it is a pity to be in any way dismissive of SARS. People died in an alarming way in that epidemic, patient after patient, their nurse, the doctor, the doctor's doctor etc. Dark-room work seems like a good idea, but I don't have one.
 
By not being able to contain this, what the health official means is that there are too many people potentially exposed to the contagion for quarantine to work, i.e. they can't put those people somewhere and isolate them from the rest of the population. It doesn't mean that it cannot be cured or that vaccinations won't work against it. And exposed isn't the same as infected.

There are a lot of diseases that cannot be contained because the population of people with possible exposure is too large - the common cold, for example. So this isn't as if the WHO and CDC are admitting defeat. They are merely recognizing what steps need to be taken now given the current situation.

Delays are inevitable. There are only two testing centers that have the ability to confirm infection with the current flu. As you might imagine, they are swamped with work right now. In addition, it is only within the last few days that doctors were made aware that flu cases should be reviewed for possible cases of this flu. I would imagine that in the next few weeks, schools and other places of assembly will err on the side of caution when flu cases show up and close.
 
MickH said:
"Virologists in Britain agreed that in the worst case scenario, an outbreak of the virus could lead to as many as 120 million deaths worldwide"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/health/h...itain-from-Mexico-screened-for-swine-flu.html

Tell me the paper's aren't blowing this up 'cos it's good copy.
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The worst case scenario is ALWAYS millions of deaths.
These guys are paid to consider the worst case scenarios.
Ask an astronom, and he will tell you that the worst case scenario is a meteor hitting earth and wiping out humanity and its Leicas.
The question seems to be: "how likely are we to reach the worst case scenario?"
 
It's a slow weekend for news. Remember bird flu & SARS?
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SARS took somewhere between 30-45 lives in the greater Toronto area which has a huge Chinese population. Going in to hospitals was like going through customs/ security at airports. Don't want to see that happen again.

From what little I've read about swine flu, it's probably not going to be fatal for most people but will still be an ordeal for those who are infected. Getting hit with the flu in general is still a sh*%ty experience, pardon the pun.
 
Sparrow said:
I think it’s so important to panic early with these things

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...60s-who-get-Sars-will-die-say-scientists.html
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Interesting piece of journalese from the Torygraph report on SARS (yes, I know it's an old story):

"Workers, even if they are not Sars suspects, have been forbidden from leaving Beijing for fear of spreading the disease. The driver was arrested for organising their escape."

So, poorly people are now suspects eh? It does say something about the tone of the coverage then, and I have seen nothing to convince me that standards have improved, in the way that victims can quickly be portrayed and regarded as "the responsible".

How long before the "Good Ole Boys" begin victimising Mexican ex-pats? The tone of the news coverage I have seen is doing nothing to explain the reality of the situation but, as usual, is pumping up the volume.

Now the buggers have worked themselves up into such a lather, only an Obama sex scandal will knock this story out of the headlines this week.

We're all doomed Mr Mainwaring.
 
For my part, I would caution against leaping irrationally to conclusions about the source/severity of this event. Furthermore I think links to "stories" featuring "my friend the doctor" are the worst possible thing to post. At best they point to the completely unfiltered nature of the internet and the consequences of pushing news "gathering" down into the hands of amateurs. At worst it's crying "fire" in a crowded theater. I am not suggesting that this current event isn't serious - put please: put on your big-boy pants and act like adults with at least a modicum of sense.

Ben Marks

P.S. excuse me, I think there's a black helicopter circling outside.
 
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Being in the hi risk flu group, and having had a bad case a few years ago, flu is a serious disease to which you can limit your risks, but not all together avoid.

Quarantine works with all contagion, thank God the vectors are not something like an insect in this case.

We seem to have not "cured" a single viral disease.

Your response, and the mutability of this one, are as yet unknown. With luck it will mutate out of the disease causing domain. Co-adaptation of host and parasite, the more successful parasites do not kill you, look at Congress, and we also tend to develop immunities, well, forget Congress.

It is attracting a lot of attention as it seems an unusual chimera, but humans seem able to share flu virus with birds and swine. Also, it has had deadly effects on other than the most oft susceptible groups.

For me personally, I was already high risk, but as I stupidly did not go to the hospital last time I was hammered with something that probably came from Bangladesh (shared a flight with a doctor returning, was sick in two days for five weeks), I finally have learned my lesson, so if I get the flu again, I am on my way.

There is nothing to panic about, as panic does not serve any function.

Wash your hands, get plenty of sleep, sell me all really neat Leica gear cheap while you still can, maybe drop your plans to visit Mexico, unless you want to rent my timeshare, and stay away from Politicians. They cannot possibly do what they do to so many and remain disease free.

If you get sick, two places, home or the hospital.

Also, stock up on chicken soup.

Oh, you may wish to stay away from people for awhile, or pigs for that matter, there goes my active social life.

Regards, and good health, John
 
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Richard G said:
Clearly cause for concern. However for anyone on RFF there is an influence of socioeconomic factors, probably, in your own survival. The world was in major trouble in 1918 at the end of the war and the death rate from the 1957 and 1968 pandemics was not nearly so high. I think it is a pity to be in any way dismissive of SARS. People died in an alarming way in that epidemic, patient after patient, their nurse, the doctor, the doctor's doctor etc. Dark-room work seems like a good idea, but I don't have one.
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Another reason film is better than digital. ;-) There is no time like now to snap up that equipment which is otherwise being kicked to the curb.

Good point about the war, some think the flu is what ended it.

J
 
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