The future of film in the context of current economy

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Nh3

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I read somewhere that a lot of camera stores will close down due to the economy and also the saturation of digital market. I also visited one of my local camera stores and the sales people were depressed saying this is the slowest they have been at this of the time the year since they can remember.

My question is quite simple, do you think film will survive the current economic downturn?
 
Kodak: Film is far from dead

Kodak: Film is far from dead

According to AP, 6th Nov 2008

"Film is far from dead and is making a 'significant' comeback this year, especially among 'young professionals', according to Kodak's US HQ headquarters.

After several years of 'double-digit decline', Kodak tells us that certain black & white films are bucking the downward trend in demand among professional photographers in Western Europe and the US."

etc, etc.
 
Marginal businesses are always hit hardest in economic downturns.
I don't think that will greatly affect film though. It's already tough to get film from bricks and mortar stores...and this is a pretty big area I live in.
I place an order with B&H once in awhile. Nothing is changing that.
 
well, i'm likely to shoot more film this season than last, having just sold my R-D1 and returned to an M-body. i'm doing my part :)
 
Nh3 said:
I read somewhere that a lot of camera stores will close down due to the economy and also the saturation of digital market. I also visited one of my local camera stores and the sales people were depressed saying this is the slowest they have been at this of the time the year since they can remember.

My question is quite simple, do you think film will survive the current economic downturn?
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The answers are complex.

In the longest term, film will not survive, economic crisis or not. Film has peaked as a recording medium and is now in a long slow period of decline, no longer popular among consumers who can afford even a simple digital camera.

In the shorter term, the decline may be exacerbated by economic factors, including declining consumer spending (which will also negatively affect digital cameras) and raising raw materials costs, such as silver. Spot prices for silver are currently trending down, but before the market crash, they were trending upwards - many large-scale buyers of silver buy contracts which lock them into prices. This is good if the price continues to go up, but with the prices going down, they may be locked into higher prices that they cannot now renegotiate.

B&W film continues see strong demand in the professional and semi-professional photographic community, and some thinning of the ranks has led to stablization to some degree. B&W may alone buck the slow march towards obsolescence.

Camera stores as individual units have in general failed to compete with the big-box electronics stores, so smaller chains have been eaten by larger chains, independents are vanishing at a phenomenal rate, and the largest of the big-box retailers are no longer stocking anything but single-use film cameras and perhaps a few lines of color print film.

The disappearance of the camera stores was to be expected, as the technological paradigm continued to shift from cameras as durable goods to cameras as typical consumer electronics - essentially throw-away technology. While the price / performance curve trended sharply upward (more megapixels, same dollar price, six-month shelf life), camera retailers could not stock digital cameras and sell them within their shelflife before they dropped in value so much that they could not be sold without taking a loss. Megastores could blast out old merchandise before it became obsolete, dropping prices to match the curve and still make a slight profit. Profit margins on digital cameras are very thin, unlike traditional pro and prosumer film camera gear.

Camera stores dealt in technical information about photography. This information is no longer expected or asked for by consumers of digital cameras. They typically want to be informed of the same sort technical specifications about the camera as a consumer of a PC would seek, so they want information about the camera, not information about photography. This closes a path that sellers of photographic equipment have been treading for just under 100 years, and with the end of the business model, comes the end of the business.

Of course, the recent economic events have caused an increase in the rate of disappearance of the traditional camera store. With mail-order and internet sales of speciality items such as B&W film and film-based products, there is no particular reason for retail stores to continue to pay the overhead of maintaining a bricks-n-morter storefront. In other words, I would expect most sales of B&W film and film-based products to take place over the Internet in a relatively short period of time.

For an example of traditional camera retailers that have managed to find a niche in the post-film photographic world, I would point to companies such as Adorama, B&H, and Cameta Camera. They embraced rather than shunned digital technology. In the case of Adorama and B&H, it allowed them to maintain some level of support for film.
 
In times of an economic crisis, would you spent hard earned money on a new electronic gadget (say upgrading your existent digital camera with a new digital camera) or on film to continue photography ? Once you own a digital camera, the lenses, enough memory, and spare batteries, what else is necessary to buy ? After I had bought my D1x, the lenses that I wanted and two memory cards, I didn't visit any camera store for one year. Now, exclusively using film, I go to my favorite camera store once a week, to buy film or developer. I think the market for digital cameras and equipment is facing harder times ...
 
I have to agree with Bill. I would add that when times are tough most would just as soon shoot digital and have the ongoing expense of buying film, paying for processing and or chemicals to develop it. This economic crunch is going to clear the field of marginal players, producers and retailers, and will be hard on both film and digital. It is going to be interesting how it will shake out in the next few years but there will be survivors in both areas.

Bob
 
mabelsound said:
Let me become resident insane man and say that I bet 35mm film will be available for the rest of our lives.
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You're not insane; a crazy man doesn't hedge his bets.

"Available?"

Do you mean sold in the retail consumer mainstream market? Currently produced, or salted-away frozen treasure-troves sold at exorbitant prices to the well-heeled?

I am sure that film will continue to be 'available' to those who wish to buy it and are willing to pay the going rate. One can, I am told, buy human body parts if one wishes, so I doubt that NOS film stocks rescued from this deep-freeze or that mineshaft storage will be entirely gone.

Will you be able to stroll into the local corner drugstore, pick up a roll of Kodak Gold 200 and drop it off later to have some 4x6 prints made? No, most of us will live to see the end of those days. This is a fundamental technology shift, and we're lucky (or unlucky, depending on your point of view) to be living through it now. History in the making.
 
B&W film continues see strong demand in the professional and semi-professional photographic community, and some thinning of the ranks has led to stablization to some degree. B&W may alone buck the slow march towards obsolescence.
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bmattock: that sounds reassuring but still why Kodak has subcontracted sales of Tri-X as Arista Premium? Tri-X being the best selling B&w film.

Was that to cut on the marketing and packaging costs or simply to clear their stock faster?
 
With all this "will film survive" talk, it makes me think of two things.

#1 Why can I still buy VHS tapes, when I can record on a DVD, use a Hard Drive or now go to Bluray?

#2 Why can I still buy cassette tapes and cassette tape players when they have no redeeming value over against either records, or CD's, MP3's, Mini disks. etc . . . .

Once I no longer see any VHS or cassette tapes at stores, then I will start to worry.
 
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Nh3 said:
bmattock: that sounds reassuring but still why Kodak has subcontracted sales of Tri-X as Arista Premium? Tri-X being the best selling B&w film.

Was that to cut on the marketing and packaging costs or simply to clear their stock faster?
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I don't really know. I presume they want to maintain production at a particular level, and retail sales of Tri-X are not getting them what they want. The traditional way of moving stock is by lowering prices until the items sell, but Kodak has to watch out not to dilute their brand by making their Cadillac film seem like a cut-rate film. So although you know that Tri-X is Arista Premium (I didn't), not everyone does. Tri-X keeps its brand cachet.
 
Well let me throw a curve ball into this reading of tea leaves. As it stands there is also a great possibility for anyone of the major printer companies like a Epson to "hit the wall" based on near zero sales. Or even a other major vendor of a photo company to get stretched out and go down in flames. Everyone of these big companies in both the digital and film industries is and has been dealing with shrinking profit margins and now heavy declines in worldwide sales. I see this as a great time to look at picking up more film and supplies. The small guys in any business model will die only as they can not take a protracted period of strong negative cash flow. big companies are really not reacting to massive disruption of business and the debt is must be serviced or they die.....it all comes down to flexibility and responding to the new world.

But for me the decision between buying a 5 or 10 thousand dollar camera, lens or other item is no decision at all. Can the item pay for it's self?? If not then keep using what has been successful and paid for. Film will be around as long as someone can make a profit selling it. Film is now the new "art" and digitial is the everyman's cell phone. Common and a utility item. lets face it more photos get deleated than ever get saved, let alone even proofed or printed. Even 35 film is now elevated to the status of an etching plate or lithographic stone. Just something to think about.....All the Best
 
I agree with many people here who that feel that the digital sector will be hit harder than film. Yes, it's a small niche industry now, but I believe it has a far more solid base.
 
by analogy...although most cars sold today are automatic shift there remains buyers wanting standard shift cars, running the spectrum from Ferrari to Yugos. And, the market supplies this demand.

I will wager film, minimally B&W, will be avail a long time. There is still such a demand, however thin. Fortunately the R&D required to mfg film is already paid for and B&W film mfg may be spun of as smaller business units. There is also a possiblity -- however remote -- that Kodak and Ilford may retain these units as a unique part of their business.
 
35mmdelux said:
Fortunately the R&D required to mfg film is already paid for and B&W film mfg may be spun of as smaller business units. There is also a possiblity -- however remote -- that Kodak and Ilford may retain these units as a unique part of their business.
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That's a very good point. Digital is heavily dependent on R&D where as film such as Tri-X has already matured and 50+ years old.
 
Economy? No. What is killing film is that you can't walk into a Wal-mart, at least in my area, and buy a film camera of any kind. If consumers can't buy film cameras, they aren't going to buy film. Without all these consumers, we as niche players can't keep film alive for long. The majority of film still being sold, according to the industry, is large format film, not 35mm film. Perhaps we should all buy 4x5's! ;)
 
well, if they put film cameras out on the shelves, they'd be P&Ses and AF SLRs- I'd buy neither. if you're shooting film EOS, you really love your film.

another reason to learn the ways of the dark room then. because i'll be around for a while...

cheers. and do your part...
 
I am not worried. There are more important things in life than photography. I take things in perspective.
 
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