The Nikon struggle to Survive Nov 2020

[jonmanjiro]

Hi Doc;

In the last few years, EVU Litho has been making in-roads into the optical stepper world. I wasn't sure of the progress. It's why i wondered about Nikon Steppers. The technology has moved beyond what most (all?) lens optics will deliver. It seems, it's all mirrors and LASERS with the new device. As Jon says, ASML is the major player.

This isn't my field and, i don't keep up with the day to day advancements. But, there's lots written about the new technology. I don't know if Nikon can/will compete in the changing technology? Maybe, Jon is up on this?

How does the laser technology in EUV lithography work?
https://www.laserfocusworld.com/blo...-the-laser-technology-in-euv-lithography-work

You have it exactly right, PKR. With the IC steppers, the technology moved beyond Nikon's field of expertise and they got left behind. We actually discussed this exact topic here at RFF way back in February 2017 in the thread linked below.

Not everyone wants or needs the latest technology though, and Nikon is still chugging along supporting and updating their existing fleet of IC steppers. ASML has the lion's share of the market though. That's indisputable.

https://www.rangefinderforum.com/forums/showpost.php?p=2697793

https://www.rangefinderforum.com/forums/showthread.php?p=2697760

 

[S.H.]

Nowadays Nikon bodies have nothing special but their technical qualities and their image output. For instance, my (bought for very cheap from second hand with very little shutter actuations and in like new condition) D610 probably outperforms the M240 in terms of reliability, flexibility and RAW quality output, at any ISO settings.

I just bought a cheapish second hand D800, for macro shots (work related) and to scan film. I'm impressed with its output too, it probably has more definition and dynamic than your average film. But I find it as sexy as a dishwasher, it can't use pre AI (why? it feels like a mean cheap downgrade) and the VF is not even that great.

Also, these days my M8 is more used to check the usability of my vintage Zeiss RF lenses than to take real pictures. 😀

The next few years will probably be ... interesting for Nikon.

 

[Freakscene]

it can't use pre AI (why? it feels like a mean cheap downgrade) and the VF is not even that great.

In the Nikon F mount cameras that use the AI indexing, mounting a non-AI lens places undue pressure on the AI indexing prong and often bends it or breaks it off. The D800 has an AI indexing tab. Even in manual focus SLRs, most that use the AI tab cannot use non-AI lenses. The ones that can have a complicated, fragile folding AI indexing prong. The only dSLR with this, as far as I know, is the Df.

The focus screen of modern (AF) SLR cameras are bundles of fibre optics with microlenses on the surfaces - they accept light from a very narrow angle, so as you open the lens wider they transmit proportionally less light. Randomly scattering ground glass or plastic is much better for manual focusing, which is why proper manual focus cameras are better for focusing manually, but objectively, screens in the AF cameras look brighter.

Marty

 

[S.H.]

In the Nikon F mount cameras that use the AI indexing, mounting a non-AI lens places undue pressure on the AI indexing prong and often bends it or breaks it off. The D800 has an AI indexing tab. Even in manual focus SLRs, most that use the AI tab cannot use non-AI lenses. The ones that can have a complicated, fragile folding AI indexing prong. The only dSLR with this, as far as I know, is the Df.

I don't have my F3 anymore but I remember that it featured a metal folding indexing tab. I don't think the F3 was ever labelled as "fragile"... at least I remember it was well made, mount included. Why such a feature is artificially removed from a modern, professional, 3kUSD camera? (because I should buy new lenses, I know how Japanese market segmentation works. It still feels wrong)

 

[Freakscene]

I don't have my F3 anymore but I remember that it featured a metal folding indexing tab. I don't think the F3 was ever labelled as "fragile"... at least I remember it was well made, mount included. Why such a feature is artificially removed from a modern, professional, 3kUSD camera? (because I should buy new lenses, I know how Japanese market segmentation works. It still feels wrong)

The F3 is a tank, but if you switch between AI and non-AI lenses frequently, the hinge On the AI prong pretty reliably breaks. I have an F3 with the tab folded for use with non-AI lenses and one with it unfolded for AI lenses. I also bought some spare prongs. Luckily for a while F3s were inexpensive.

How it feels, well, that’s up to you.

The modern relevance for this is that the Z mount is uncomplicated and has no mechanical linkages. Obviously designed as a clean break from all that mechanical historical baggage.

Marty

 

[Larry Cloetta]

Nikon obviously has problems, some internal and some external (shrinking market for cameras), but the quality of the cameras or lenses certainly isn’t one of them. If one only considers MTF charts, no one is making better lenses right now than the new Z lenses. Nobody. And it’s hard to make the case than anyone is even equalling those lenses at this point.....in terms of MTF results across the entire line. (Rendering is an entirely different subject than MTF charts though, and if evaluated that way, every manufacturer is on an even footing, subject to the more subjective desires of buyers.)
In terms of what you can pull out of the files created by the sensor, Nikon has no worries there either, (though sensor tech advances by leapfrogging among the bigger players, with Leica always being the smallest, frog.)
Nikon’s problem isn’t related to the quality of their full frame bodies or lenses, which are more than competitive with anything else out there. It’s marketing, which might be the worst of any camera manufacturer, save Pentax. There is more internet play, more eyeballs, on Nikon’s quarterly reports than there is on their product line. There is no pushback from Nikon on that, no marketing presence to speak of, just crickets, and the marketing you can find, you wonder who on earth it is aimed at. The Z lenses are objectively fantastic, in terms of measurements, but a consumer needs to hire a private detective to find the MTF charts in any of Nikon’s marketing materials. And their sample photos which accompany new lens introductions, those tend to be so unrepresentative of the capabilities of those lenses that they seem to have come from the *** department, and the one minute videos which accompany new lens introductions are offputtingly weird.
Every manufacturer left standing produces cameras and lenses which are now more than good enough for anyone. Couple that with the fact that everyone already owns a digital camera, or phone, that answers every legitimate need they actually have and you have a really small market, and too many players. In situations like this, it comes down to marketing prowess more than anything else. It doesn’t matter how good your product is if consumers (outside of the fetishists who log on to camera forums every day) don’t know it, and don’t believe it. And I’d dare say that there are even camera forum fetishists who have no idea how good the Z lenses or cameras are.

(Nikon, as others have mentioned, has also obviously been a bit lost, running around in circles trying to figure out what to do. Flipping coins from the looks of it. It’s been a corporate example of the age old male question/plea, “what do women want?” And they apparently have no idea. Again, that’s a failure of the brains in the marketing area, and it’s not just Coolpix. Those Key Mission things, an entire line, what on earth was that?)

Nikon may go the way or Olympus, may not, too early to tell, but there are probably things they could do to forestall that.

Edit: OMG, I’ve been censored by the church lady. Given a *** for my troubles. That beats all.

 

[Highway 61]

Many thanks Larry for your brilliant post ! 🙂

 

[Skiff]

It has become very fashionable to bash Nikon, often based on their financial data.
"Nikon is dead" headlines brings money to some people.

A huge amount of mostly stupid, not fact-based click-bait is going on. E.g. by Tony Northrup, Jared Polin and some petapixel and fstoppers authors.
All of them are ignoring that all bigger digital camera manufacturers are facing significant financial downturns in the 10-25% range.
The problems are not exclusive to Nikon, not at all.

The independent lens manufacturers are also affected:
Tamron:
https://petapixel.com/2020/11/10/ta...anese-workforce-to-voluntarily-retire-report/

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if in 3-5 years ahead Sony will pull the plug on its camera division: Their market share is declining heavily, attacked by Canon, Nikon, Fujifilm, Panasonic, Leica.
It was comfortable for them in the last years, as they have been almost the only option for FF mirrorless. That is completely gone now. Canon, Nikon and Leica/Panasonic offer the technological much better mounts for FF (the Sony E mount was designed originally for APS-C).
The number of Canon and Nikon users who may switch to Sony (and have been the main source for their demand in the past) is declining extremely fast now with the excellent new mirrorless cameras Canon and Nikon have meanwhile introduced. In 1-2 years this former "demand source" for Sony will probably have dried up almost completely.
And in addition Sony will be facing the matured market situation: How much Sony A7III or A4RIV users will update to the successor models? Only very few. Mirrorless is coming in this "law of diminishing returns" area: New models are only offering very minor detail upgrades. And for the majority of photographers these minor details are not worth to buy a new expensive camera.

In the past Sony has always left the markets when they have shrunk much and became niche markets. Therefore no one should be surprised if they do it again.

 

[pvdhaar]

In the past Sony has always left the markets when they have shrunk much and became niche markets. Therefore no one should be surprised if they do it again.

This is not unique to Sony.. E.g. Samsung withdrew from mirrorless camera production already a couple of years ago.

 

[View Range]

How many versions of Z cameras do we need? Why not a short run of Coolscan scanners that many of us would snap up instantly? Old hardware, software updated for the latest OS. Further, as an F-mount user, I fear the F-mount is going to be abandoned. Why should I upgrade from my D5 and D810, fearing the lenses are at the end of development?

 

[Sierra Club]

Financial struggle or not, Nikon needs it's own take on of Fuji X100.

Give us DM (digital manual) line of simple cameras based on evergreen FMs!

I also agree that they have way too wide product range - look back in time, all they (and the photography crowd) needed back then was 1 basic model, 1 or 2 mid-level bodies and 1 pro body.
Now they try to cater to all of the needs of an average modern buyer that is in 90% of cases a) an idiot, b) will only use basic camera functions anyway.

 

[Ko.Fe.]

Financial struggle or not, Nikon needs it's own take on of Fuji X100.

Give us DM (digital manual) line of simple cameras based on evergreen FMs!

I also agree that they have way too wide product range - look back in time, all they (and the photography crowd) needed back then was 1 basic model, 1 or 2 mid-level bodies and 1 pro body.
Now they try to cater to all of the needs of an average modern buyer that is in 90% of cases a) an idiot, b) will only use basic camera functions anyway.

Nikon DF was dead F. Few fans, but nowhere near of X100 cult.
I think its because Nikon was just slamming dials on some regular DSLR body.
Result came sexy upfront, but butt was enormous. Too fat for modern standards of been sexy.
Nikon needs to do same approach as most successful competitors did.
They need M10 achievement. FM2D camera with same size as FM2A. They are still making lenses for it.

 

[Sierra Club]

Nikon DF was dead F. Few fans, but nowhere near of X100 cult.
I think its because Nikon was just slamming dials on some regular DSLR body.
Result came sexy upfront, but butt was enormous. Too fat for modern standards of been sexy.
Nikon needs to do same approach as most successful competitors did.
They need M10 achievement. FM2D camera with same size as FM2A. They are still making lenses for it.

My sentiment exactly. To me Df was a failed experiment.
When I say simple digital camera I mean compactness of FM2/3a first and formost. It could even have DX sensor if it would help Nikon reduce the size to something resembling FM2 rather than D4...

 

[Out to Lunch]

I think its because Nikon was just slamming dials on some regular DSLR body.

Indeed. My take on the ordeal: Nikon missed the mirrorless boat, not by months but by years and today, they are paying the price.

 

[Skiff]

This is not unique to Sony.. E.g. Samsung withdrew from mirrorless camera production already a couple of years ago.

Yes.
And before Samsung already other big players like Kodak (former market leader with their digital compact cameras in North America), Epson, Casio, Sanyo and lots of Chinese OEM digital compact cam producers left the market.
That Olympus has pulled the plug of their camera division is also just the beginning of these cameras fading out of the market in the coming years.
And Sony has meanwhile the biggest drops in market share, and that development is accelerating.

 

[Skiff]

Further, as an F-mount user, I fear the F-mount is going to be abandoned.

Don't worry, that will not happen.
Nikon has recently several times said in official statements, that they will offer, quote: "best of both worlds, DSLR and DSLM".
This year they have introduced two new outstanding DSLRs, the D6 and D780, and the new F mount lens 2.8/120-300.
Next year a successor of the D850 will come.

 

[jsrockit]

Indeed. My take on the ordeal: Nikon missed the mirrorless boat, not by months but by years and today, they are paying the price.

I'm going to give them time... the Z6 and Z7 were pretty nice first tries and we couldn't have expected two $2000+ models to make them kings of mirrorless. To me, the boat is still around...

 

[Skiff]

I'm going to give them time...

+1.
What they have introduced in the last two years has been very amazing, both DSLR and DSLM.

And they have the time for restructuring: Over on Thom Hogan's site he has published a detailed analysis of Nikon's financial situation, and the result was that Nikon has enough cash for the next 2-3 years for their restructuring process.
Nikon has managed all their crisis in the past, there is no reason why they should not overcome the current challenges.

 

[das]

I agree that an optional native ability to produce already-corrected, ready-to-instagram digital files right out of the camera (like an iPhone) is something that is sorely lacking in all mirrorless systems. Although pro and serious amateur photographers mostly all want a flat RAW file to correct, the vast, vast majority of the population wants to take an easy photo and post it in less than 5 minutes to social media accounts.

I do not think from a product perspective that Nikon is flailing at the moment -- it is just a little late to the game. I think that people may forget that Sony's A7 series did not initially work very well with non-native glass, especially with wide angles. Today, I read a 5 year-old review of a legacy lens on a Sony A7R, and think "that camera was probably not the ideal platform for testing film camera lenses." The Nikon Z system's sensor is much, much better than Sony's initial offerings for legacy glass. The performance of Z lenses appears to convincingly surpass native Sony lenses. Many were disappointed that the Z lacked the provision to autofocus screw drive lenses -- the MTZ adapter should have been able to do it out of the gate. However, the Z is a really nice machine. I am glad I held out for one over the Sony offerings.

The future is professional digital mirrorless (regular and medium format), phones, and perhaps, for a time, in smaller digital "VLOG" cameras. I feel like capable smaller digitals like the Fuji X100V will eventually fade away, unless pros find them useful for certain situations.

 

[Ste_S]

I think it's hard to know who Nikon cameras appeal to now. The Z6/7 series seem nice enough but don't do anything to stand out.

I guess I'm a 'stills' enthusiast, and I own and love the F, FE and F4 and would love an SP. None of Nikon's digital line do it for me however and I shoot Fuji for digital, and I suspect I'm not alone in this.